The proportional decrease in prostate specific antigen level best predicts the duration of survival after hormonal therapy in patients with metastatic carcinoma of the prostate

Prognostic grouping of metastatic prostate cancer using conventional pretreatment prognostic factors

OBJECTIVE

To develop three prognostic groups for disease specific mortality based on the binary classified pretreatment variables age, haemoglobin concentration (Hb), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), prostate-specific antigen (PSA), plasma testosterone and estradiol level in hormonally treated patients with metastatic prostate cancer (PCa).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The present study comprised 200 Finnprostate 6 study patients, but data on all variables were not known for every patient. The patients were divided into three prognostic risk groups (Rgs) using the prognostically best set of pretreatment variables. The best set was found by backward stepwise selection and the effect of every excluded variable on the binary classification cut-off points of the remaining variables was checked and corrected when needed.

RESULTS

The best group of variables was ALP, PSA, ESR and age. All data were known in 142 patients. Patients were given one risk point each for ALP > 180 U/l (normal value 60-275 U/l), PSA > 35 microg/l, ESR > 80 mm/h and age < 60 years. Three risk groups were formed: Rg-a (0-1 risk points), Rg-b (2 risk points) and Rg-c (3-4 risk points). The risk of death from PCa increased statistically significantly with advancing prognostic group.

CONCLUSION

Patients with metastatic PCa can be divided into three statistically significantly different prognostic risk groups for PCa-specific mortality by using the binary classified pretreatment variables ALP, PSA, ESR and age.

The prognostic value of different forms of prostate specific antigen and their ratios in patients with prostate cancer

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prognostic value for patient survival of different forms of PSA and ratios thereof, before treatment for prostate cancer, by considering the forms and ratios both as independent markers and by comparing them with other commonly used prognostic markers, e.g. tumour grade, local stage (T-stage) and absence or presence of skeletal metastases (M-stage).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Blood samples were collected consecutively from men diagnosed with prostate cancer at our department in 1988. From this group, 66 men were followed until death, or for >/=9 years. Twenty-five patients died from their prostate cancer and 21 from other causes during the follow-up period. Forty-eight patients received hormonal treatment, whereas 18 remained untreated or received no treatment for their cancer before they died from other causes. Assays measuring the serum levels of free prostate specific antigen (fPSA), PSA complexed to alpha1-antichymotrypsin (PSA-ACT), and total PSA (tPSA) were used to calculate the percentage of free to total PSA (f/tPSA) fPSA/ACT and ACT/tPSA at diagnosis. Based on the initial levels or ratios of the PSA forms, the patients were divided into three numerically comparable groups (tertiles) for survival analysis. Prognostic factors predicting patient survival were evaluated using univariate (Kaplan-Meier life-tables with the log-rank test) and multivariate techniques (Cox proportional hazards regression model).

RESULTS

Univariate analysis using the log-rank test showed that the serum level of each molecular form of PSA, i.e. tPSA (P=0.001), PSA-ACT (P<0.001) and fPSA (P<0.001), as well as grade (P<0.001), T-stage (P=0.00355) and M-stage (P<0.001), provided statistically significant prognostic information. Log-rank tests showed that none of the ratios, i.e. f/tPSA, fPSA/ACT and ACT/tPSA, were informative of prognosis (P>0.05). However, in a multivariate analysis regression model, not only M-stage (risk ratio 4.2; P=0. 026) and grade (risk ratio 2.6; P=0.022), but also f/tPSA (risk ratio 1.8; P=0.037), provided significant prognostic information.

CONCLUSION

The values of tPSA, fPSA and PSA-ACT, as well as grade and T- and M-stage, are all independent prognostic factors of prostate cancer survival. In a multivariate analysis, not only M-stage and grade but also f/tPSA provided significant prognostic information.