Family tree of Markov models in systems biology

Melding Modeling and Morphology: A Call for Collaboration to Address Difficult Questions about the Evolution of Form and Function

The nascent field of evolutionary biomechanics seeks to understand how form begets function, and researchers have taken two tacks toward this goal: inferring form based on function (comparative biomechanics) or inferring function based on form (functional morphology). Each tack has strengths and weaknesses, which the other could improve. The symposium, "Melding modeling and morphology-integrating approaches to understand the evolution of form and function" sought to highlight research stitching together the two tacks. In this introduction to the symposium's issue, we highlight these works, discuss the challenges of interdisciplinary collaborations, and suggest possible avenues available to create new collaborations to create a unifying framework for evolutionary biomechanics.

A theoretical foundation for state-transition cohort models in health decision analysis

Following its introduction over three decades ago, the cohort model has been used extensively to model population trajectories over time in decision-analytic modeling studies. However, the stochastic process underlying cohort models has not been properly described. In this study, we explicate the stochastic process underlying a cohort model, by carefully formulating the dynamics of populations across health states and assigning probability rules on these dynamics. From this formulation, we explicate a mathematical representation of the system, which is given by the master equation. We solve the master equation by using the probability generation function method to obtain the explicit form of the probability of observing a particular realization of the system at an arbitrary time. The resulting generating function is used to derive the analytical expressions for calculating the mean and the variance of the process. Secondly, we represent the cohort model by a difference equation for the number of individuals across all states. From the difference equation, a continuous-time cohort model is recovered and takes the form of an ordinary differential equation. To show the equivalence between the derived stochastic process and the cohort model, we conduct a numerical exercise. We demonstrate that the population trajectories generated from the formulas match those from the cohort model simulation. In summary, the commonly-used cohort model represent the average of a continuous-time stochastic process on a multidimensional integer lattice governed by a master equation. Knowledge of the stochastic process underlying a cohort model provides a theoretical foundation for the modeling method.

The relationship between stochastic and deterministic quasi-steady state approximations

Background

The quasi steady-state approximation (QSSA) is frequently used to reduce deterministic models of biochemical networks. The resulting equations provide a simplified description of the network in terms of non-elementary reaction functions (e.g. Hill functions). Such deterministic reductions are frequently a basis for heuristic stochastic models in which non-elementary reaction functions are used to define reaction propensities. Despite their popularity, it remains unclear when such stochastic reductions are valid. It is frequently assumed that the stochastic reduction can be trusted whenever its deterministic counterpart is accurate. However, a number of recent examples show that this is not necessarily the case.

Results

Here we explain the origin of these discrepancies, and demonstrate a clear relationship between the accuracy of the deterministic and the stochastic QSSA for examples widely used in biological systems. With an analysis of a two-state promoter model, and numerical simulations for a variety of other models, we find that the stochastic QSSA is accurate whenever its deterministic counterpart provides an accurate approximation over a range of initial conditions which cover the likely fluctuations from the quasi steady-state (QSS). We conjecture that this relationship provides a simple and computationally inexpensive way to test the accuracy of reduced stochastic models using deterministic simulations.

Conclusions

The stochastic QSSA is one of the most popular multi-scale stochastic simulation methods. While the use of QSSA, and the resulting non-elementary functions has been justified in the deterministic case, it is not clear when their stochastic counterparts are accurate. In this study, we show how the accuracy of the stochastic QSSA can be tested using their deterministic counterparts providing a concrete method to test when non-elementary rate functions can be used in stochastic simulations.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12918-015-0218-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Proposing a two-level stochastic model for epileptic seizure genesis

By assuming the brain as a multi-stable system, different scenarios have been introduced for transition from normal to epileptic state. But, the path through which this transition occurs is under debate. In this paper a stochastic model for seizure genesis is presented that is consistent with all scenarios: a two-level spontaneous seizure generation model is proposed in which, in its first level the behavior of physiological parameters is modeled with a stochastic process. The focus is on some physiological parameters that are essential in simulating different activities of ElectroEncephaloGram (EEG), i.e., excitatory and inhibitory synaptic gains of neuronal populations. There are many depth-EEG models in which excitatory and inhibitory synaptic gains are the adjustable parameters. Using one of these models at the second level, our proposed seizure generator is complete. The suggested stochastic model of first level is a hidden Markov process whose transition matrices are obtained through analyzing the real parameter sequences of a seizure onset area. These real parameter sequences are estimated from real depth-EEG signals via applying a parameter identification algorithm. In this paper both short-term and long-term validations of the proposed model are done. The long-term synthetic depth-EEG signals simulated by this model can be taken as a suitable tool for comparing different seizure prediction algorithms.

A hierarchical exact accelerated stochastic simulation algorithm

A new algorithm, "HiER-leap" (hierarchical exact reaction-leaping), is derived which improves on the computational properties of the ER-leap algorithm for exact accelerated simulation of stochastic chemical kinetics. Unlike ER-leap, HiER-leap utilizes a hierarchical or divide-and-conquer organization of reaction channels into tightly coupled "blocks" and is thereby able to speed up systems with many reaction channels. Like ER-leap, HiER-leap is based on the use of upper and lower bounds on the reaction propensities to define a rejection sampling algorithm with inexpensive early rejection and acceptance steps. But in HiER-leap, large portions of intra-block sampling may be done in parallel. An accept/reject step is used to synchronize across blocks. This method scales well when many reaction channels are present and has desirable asymptotic properties. The algorithm is exact, parallelizable and achieves a significant speedup over the stochastic simulation algorithm and ER-leap on certain problems. This algorithm offers a potentially important step towards efficient in silico modeling of entire organisms.

Modelling the dynamics of signalling pathways

In the present chapter we discuss methodologies for the modelling, calibration and validation of cellular signalling pathway dynamics. The discussion begins with the typical range of techniques for modelling that might be employed to go from the chemical kinetics to a mathematical model of biochemical pathways. In particular, we consider the decision-making processes involved in selecting the right mechanism and level of detail of representation of the biochemical interactions. These include the choice between (i) deterministic and stochastic chemical kinetics representations, (ii) discrete and continuous time models and (iii) representing continuous and discrete state processes. We then discuss the task of calibrating the models using information available in web-based databases. For situations in which the data are not available from existing sources we discuss model calibration based upon measured data and system identification methods. Such methods, together with mathematical modelling databases and computational tools, are often available in standard packages. We therefore make explicit mention of a range of popular and useful sites. As an example of the whole modelling and calibration process, we discuss a study of the cross-talk between the IL-1 (interleukin-1)-stimulated NF-kappaB (nuclear factor kappaB) pathway and the TGF-beta (transforming growth factor beta)-stimulated Smad2 pathway.

Computer modelling of epilepsy

Epilepsy is a complex set of disorders that can involve many areas of the cortex, as well as underlying deep-brain systems. The myriad manifestations of seizures, which can be as varied as déjà vu and olfactory hallucination, can therefore give researchers insights into regional functions and relations. Epilepsy is also complex genetically and pathophysiologically: it involves microscopic (on the scale of ion channels and synaptic proteins), macroscopic (on the scale of brain trauma and rewiring) and intermediate changes in a complex interplay of causality. It has long been recognized that computer modelling will be required to disentangle causality, to better understand seizure spread and to understand and eventually predict treatment efficacy. Over the past few years, substantial progress has been made in modelling epilepsy at levels ranging from the molecular to the socioeconomic. We review these efforts and connect them to the medical goals of understanding and treating the disorder.