A Mechanistic Model Accounting for the Effect of Soil Moisture, Weather, and Host Growth Stage on the Development of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum

The fungus Sclerotinia sclerotiorum causes serious losses to several agricultural crops worldwide. By using systems analysis, we retrieved the available knowledge concerning S. sclerotiorum from the literature and then analyzed and synthesized the data to develop a mechanistic, dynamic, weather-driven model for the prediction of epidemics on different crops. The model accounts for i) the production and survival of apothecia; ii) the production, dispersal, and survival of ascospores; iii) infection by ascospores; and iv) lesion onset. The ability of the model to predict the occurrence of apothecia was evaluated for epidemics observed with different climates, soil types, and host crops (soybean, white bean, and carrot) using independent data obtained from trials conducted in Ontario (Canada) in 1981, 1982, and from 1999 to 2002; in Michigan (U.S.A.) in 2015 and 2016; and in Wisconsin (U.S.A.) in 2016. The model showed 0.82 accuracy and 0.73 specificity in predicting the presence of apothecia, with a posterior probability of correctly predicting apothecia to be present or absent of 0.804 and 0.876, respectively. The model was also validated for its ability to predict disease progress on soybean and sunflower in Ontario in 1981 and 1982, in Manitoba (Canada) in 2001 and 2002, and in Michigan in 2015 and 2016. Comparison of model output with observations showed a concordance correlation coefficient of 0.948, and a root mean square error of 0.122. The model represents an improvement of previous S. sclerotiorum models and could be useful for making decisions on disease control.

Ascospore release and survival in Sclerotinia sclerotiorum

The release and survival of ascospores of a UK Sclerotinia sclerotiorum isolate were studied. Apothecia placed in a spore clock apparatus with different lighting regimes at 15 degrees C released ascospores continuously with an increasing rate for the duration of experiments (72-84 h). Spore release was not confined to light or dark periods in alternating regimes and occurred in continuous dark or light. Ascospores were released in both saturated air (90-95% rh) and at 65-75% rh. High temperature and rh were detrimental to ascospore survival but spore viability was maintained for longer periods than previously reported. The significance of these results in relation to disease control is discussed.