A Bayesian hierarchical approach to comparative audit for carotid surgery

Configuration of vascular services: a multiple methods research programme

Background

Vascular services is changing rapidly, having emerged as a new specialty with its own training and specialised techniques. This has resulted in the need for reconfiguration of services to provide adequate specialist provision and accessible and equitable services.

Objectives

To identify the effects of service configuration on practice, resource use and outcomes. To model potential changes in configuration. To identify and/or develop electronic data collection tools for collecting patient-reported outcome measures and other clinical information. To evaluate patient preferences for aspects of services other than health-related quality of life.

Design

This was a multiple methods study comprising multiple systematic literature reviews; the development of a new outcome measure for users of vascular services (the electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular) based on the reviews, qualitative studies and psychometric evaluation; a trade-off exercise to measure process utilities; Hospital Episode Statistics analysis; and the development of individual disease models and a metamodel of service configuration.

Setting

Specialist vascular inpatient services in England.

Data sources

Modelling and Hospital Episode Statistics analysis for all vascular inpatients in England from 2006 to 2018. Qualitative studies and electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular evaluation with vascular patients from the Sheffield area. The trade-off studies were based on a societal sample from across England.

Interventions

The data analysis, preference studies and modelling explored the effect of different potential arrangements for service provision on the resource use, workload and outcomes for all interventions in the three main areas of inpatient vascular treatment: peripheral arterial disease, abdominal aortic aneurysm and carotid artery disease. The electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular was evaluated as a potential tool for clinical data collection and outcome monitoring.

Main outcome measures

Systematic reviews assessed quality and psychometric properties of published outcome measures for vascular disease and the relationship between volume and outcome in vascular services. The electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular development considered face and construct validity, test–retest reliability and responsiveness. Models were validated using case studies from previous reconfigurations and comparisons with Hospital Episode Statistics data. Preference studies resulted in estimates of process utilities for aneurysm treatment and for travelling distances to access services.

Results

Systematic reviews provided evidence of an association between increasing volume of activity and improved outcomes for peripheral arterial disease, abdominal aortic aneurysm and carotid artery disease. Reviews of existing patient-reported outcome measures did not identify suitable condition-specific tools for incorporation in the electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular. Reviews of qualitative evidence, primary qualitative studies and a Delphi exercise identified the issues to be incorporated into the electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular, resulting in a questionnaire with one generic and three disease-specific domains. After initial item reduction, the final version has 55 items in eight scales and has acceptable psychometric properties. The preference studies showed strong preference for endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm treatment (willingness to trade up to 0.135 quality-adjusted life-years) and for local services (up to 0.631 quality-adjusted life-years). A simulation model with a web-based interface was developed, incorporating disease-specific models for abdominal aortic aneurysm, peripheral arterial disease and carotid artery disease. This predicts the effects of specified reconfigurations on workload, resource use, outcomes and cost-effectiveness. Initial exploration suggested that further reconfiguration of services in England to accomplish high-volume centres would result in improved outcomes, within the bounds of cost-effectiveness usually considered acceptable in the NHS.

Limitations

The major source of evidence to populate the models was Hospital Episode Statistics data, which have limitations owing to the complexity of the data, deficiencies in the coding systems and variations in coding practice. The studies were not able to address all of the potential barriers to change where vascular services are not compliant with current NHS recommendations.

Conclusions

There is evidence of potential for improvement in the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vascular services through further centralisation of sites where major vascular procedures are undertaken. Preferences for local services are strong, and this may be addressed through more integrated services, with a range of services being provided more locally. The use of a web-based tool for the collection of clinical data and patient-reported outcome measures is feasible and can provide outcome data for clinical use and service evaluation.

Future work

Further evaluation of the economic models in real-world situations where local vascular service reconfiguration is under consideration and of the barriers to change where vascular services do not meet NHS recommendations for service configuration is needed. Further work on the electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular is required to assess its acceptability and usefulness in clinical practice and to develop appropriate report formats for clinical use and service evaluation. Further studies to assess the implications of including non-health-related preferences for care processes, and location of services, in calculations of cost-effectiveness are required.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016042570, CRD42016042573, CRD42016042574, CRD42016042576, CRD42016042575, CRD42014014850, CRD42015023877 and CRD42015024820.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 9, No. 5. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Systematic review of carotid artery procedures and the volume-outcome relationship in Europe

BACKGROUND

Hospitals that conduct more procedures on the carotid arteries may achieve better outcomes. In the context of ongoing reconfiguration of UK vascular services, this systematic review was conducted to evaluate the relationship between the volume of carotid procedures and outcomes, including mortality and stroke.

METHODS

Searches of electronic databases identified studies that reported the effect of hospital or clinician volume on outcomes. Reference and citation searches were also performed. Inclusion was restricted to European populations on the basis that the model of healthcare delivery is similar across Europe, but differs from that in the USA and elsewhere. Analyses of hospital and clinician volume, and carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and carotid artery stenting (CAS) were conducted separately.

RESULTS

Eleven eligible studies were identified (233 411 participants), five from the UK, two from Sweden, one each from Germany, Finland and Italy, and a combined German, Austrian and Swiss population. All studies were observational. Two large studies (179 736 patients) suggested an inverse relationship between hospital volume and mortality (number needed to treat (NNT) as low as 165), and combined mortality and stroke (NNT as low as 93), following CEA. The evidence was less clear for CAS; multiple analyses in three studies did not identify convincing evidence of an association. Limited data are available on the relationship between clinician volume and outcome in CAS; in CEA, an inverse relationship was identified by two of three small studies.

CONCLUSION

The evidence from the largest and highest-quality studies included in this review support the centralization of CEA.

Indication for Lower Extremity Revascularization and Hospital Profiling of Readmissions

BACKGROUND

Surgical readmissions are common, costly, and the focus of national quality improvement efforts. Given the relatively high readmission rates among vascular patients, pay-for-performance initiatives such as Medicare's Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) have targeted vascular surgery for increased scrutiny in the near future. Yet, the extent to which institutional case mix influences hospital profiling remains unexplored. We sought to evaluate whether higher readmission rates in vascular surgery are a reflection of worse performance or of treating sicker patients.

METHODS

This retrospective observational cohort study of the national Medicare population includes 479,047 beneficiaries undergoing lower extremity revascularization (LER) in 1,701 hospitals from 2005 to 2009. We employed hierarchical logistic regression to mimic Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services methodology accounting for age, gender, preexisting comorbidities, and differences in hospital operative volume. We estimated 30-day risk-standardized readmission rates (RSRR) for each hospital when including (1) all LER patients; (2) claudicants; or (3) high-risk patients (rest pain, ulceration, or tissue loss). We stratified hospitals into quintiles based on overall RSRR for all LERs and examined differences in RSRR for claudicants and high-risk patients between and within quintiles. Next, we evaluated differences in case mix (the proportion of claudicants and high-risk patients treated) across quintiles. Finally, we simulated differences in the receipt of penalties before and after adjusting for hospital case mix.

RESULTS

Readmission rates varied widely by indication: 7.3% (claudicants) vs. 19.5% (high risk). Even after adjusting for patient demographics, length of stay, and discharge destination, high-risk patients were significantly more likely to be readmitted (odds ratio 1.76, 95% confidence interval 1.71-1.81). The Best hospitals (top quintile) under the HRRP treated a much lower proportion of high-risk patients compared with the Worst hospitals (bottom quintile) (20% vs. 56%, P < 0.001). In the absence of case-mix adjustment, we observed a stepwise increase in the proportion of hospitals penalized as the proportion of high-risk patients treated increased (35-60%, P < 0.001). However, after case-mix adjustment, there were no differences between quintiles in the proportion of hospitalized penalized (50-46%, P = 0.30).

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that the differences in readmission rates following LER are largely driven by hospital case mix rather than true differences in quality.

Reliability of hospital readmission rates in vascular surgery

OBJECTIVE

The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services recently began assessing financial penalties to hospitals with high readmission rates for a narrow set of medical conditions. Because these penalties will be extended to surgical conditions in the near future, we sought to determine whether readmissions are a reliable predictor of hospital performance with vascular surgery.

METHODS

We examined 4 years of national Medicare claims data from 1576 hospitals on beneficiaries undergoing three common vascular procedures: open or endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (n = 81,520) or lower extremity arterial bypass (n = 57,190). First, we divided our population into two groups on the basis of operative date (2005-2006 and 2007-2008) and generated hospital risk- and reliability-adjusted readmission rates for each time period. We evaluated reliability through the use of the "test-retest" method; highly reliable measures will show little variation in rates over time. Specifically, we evaluated the year-to-year reliability of readmissions by calculating Spearman rank correlation and weighted κ tests for readmission rates between the two time periods.

RESULTS

The Spearman coefficient between 2005-2006 readmissions rankings and 2007-2008 readmissions rankings was 0.57 (P < .001) and weighted κ was 0.42 (P < .001), indicating a moderate correlation. However, only 32% of the variation in hospital readmission rates in 2007-2008 was explained by readmissions during the 2 prior years. There were major reclassifications of hospital rankings between years, with 63% of hospitals migrating among performance quintiles between 2005-2006 and 2007-2008.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk-adjusted readmission rates for vascular surgery vary substantially year to year; this implies that much of the observed variation in readmission rates is either random or caused by unmeasured factors and not caused by changes in hospital quality that may be captured by administrative data.

Surgical process modelling: a review

PURPOSE

Surgery is continuously subject to technological and medical innovations that are transforming daily surgical routines. In order to gain a better understanding and description of surgeries, the field of surgical process modelling (SPM) has recently emerged. The challenge is to support surgery through the quantitative analysis and understanding of operating room activities. Related surgical process models can then be introduced into a new generation of computer-assisted surgery systems.

METHODS

In this paper, we present a review of the literature dealing with SPM. This methodological review was obtained from a search using Google Scholar on the specific keywords: "surgical process analysis", "surgical process model" and "surgical workflow analysis".

RESULTS

This paper gives an overview of current approaches in the field that study the procedural aspects of surgery. We propose a classification of the domain that helps to summarise and describe the most important components of each paper we have reviewed, i.e., acquisition, modelling, analysis, application and validation/evaluation. These five aspects are presented independently along with an exhaustive list of their possible instantiations taken from the studied publications.

CONCLUSION

This review allows a greater understanding of the SPM field to be gained and introduces future related prospects.