Total Carbon Dioxide Versus pH for Determining Acid-Base Status in Patients on Continuous Kidney Replacement Therapy: A Cohort Study

Low serum total CO2 and its association with mortality in patients being followed up in the nephrology outpatients clinic

Large-scale studies have not been conducted to assess whether serum hypobicarbonatemia increases the risk for kidney function deterioration and mortality among East-Asians. We aimed to determine the association between serum total CO₂ (TCO₂) concentrations measured at the first outpatient visit and clinical outcomes. In this multicenter cohort study, a total of 42,231 adult nephrology outpatients from 2001 to 2016 were included. End-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients on dialysis within 3 months of the first visit were excluded. Instrumental variable (IV) was used to define regions based on the proportion of patients with serum TCO₂ < 22 mEq/L. The crude mortality rate was 12.2% during a median 77.0-month follow-up period. The Cox-proportional hazard regression model adjusted for initial kidney function, alkali supplementation, and the use of diuretics demonstrated that low TCO₂ concentration was not associated with progression to ESRD, but significantly increased the risk of death. The IV analysis also confirmed a significant association between initial TCO₂ concentration and mortality (HR 0.56; 95% CI 0.49–0.64). This result was consistently significant regardless of the underlying renal function. In conclusion, low TCO₂ levels are significantly associated with mortality but not with progression to ESRD in patients with ambulatory care.