Community-acquired pneumonia: development of a bedside predictive model and scoring system to identify the aetiology

Analysis of viral pneumonia and risk factors associated with severity of influenza virus infection in hospitalized patients from 2012 to 2016

BACKGROUND

Influenza viruses cause pneumonia in approximately one-third of cases, and pneumonia is an important cause of death. The aim was to identify risk factors associated with severity and those that could predict the development of pneumonia.

METHODS

This retrospective, observational study included all adult patients with confirmed influenza virus infection admitted to Son Espases University Hospital during four influenza seasons in Spain (October to May) from to 2012-2016.

RESULTS

Overall, 666 patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza were included, 93 (14%) of which were severe; 73 (10.9%) were admitted to Intensive Care Unit (ICU), 39 (5.8%) died, and 185 (27.7%) developed pneumonia. Compared to less severe cases, patients with severe disease: were less vaccinated (40% vs. 28%, p = 0.021); presented with more confusion (26.9% vs. 6.8%), were more hypoxemic (Horowitz index (PaO2/FiO2) 261 vs. 280), had higher C-reactive protein (CRP) (12.3 vs. 4.0), had more coinfections (26.8% vs. 6.3%) and had more pleural effusion (14% vs. 2.6%) (last six all p < 0.001). Risk factors significantly associated with severity were pneumonia [OR (95% CI) = 4.14 (2.4-7.16)], history of heart disease (1.84, 1.03-3.28), and confusion at admission (4.99, 2.55-9.74). Influenza vaccination was protective (0.53, 0.28-0.98). Compared to those without pneumonia, the pneumonia group had higher CRP (11.3 vs. 4.0, p < 0.001), lower oxygen saturation (92% vs. 94%, p < 0.001), were more hypoxic (PaO2/FiO2 266 vs. 281, p < 0.001), and incurred more mechanical ventilation, septic shock, admission to the ICU, and deaths (all four p < 0.001). Higher CRP and lower oxygen saturation were independent variables for predicting the development of pneumonia.

CONCLUSIONS

Pneumonia, history of heart disease, confusion and no influenza vaccination were independent variables to present complications in patients admitted with influenza infection.

Cost-Impact Analysis of a Novel Diagnostic Test to Assess Community-Acquired Pneumonia Etiology in the Emergency Department Setting: A Multi-Country European Study

BACKGROUND

We aimed to estimate the economic and clinical impacts of a novel diagnostic test called LIAISON^® MeMed BV^® (LMMBV), which can differentiate bacterial from viral infections, in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in emergency departments.

METHODS

A cost-impact simulation model was developed to investigate the financial consequences of the introduction of LMMBV into the standard of care (SOC) diagnostic process in Italy, Germany, and Spain. Clinical outcomes were expressed as antibiotic patients and days saved, reduced hospital admissions, and shortened hospital length of stay (LOS). Cost savings were evaluated from the perspectives of third-party payers and hospitals. A deterministic sensitivity analysis (DSA) was carried out.

RESULTS

LMMBV was associated with a reduction in antibiotic prescriptions, treatment duration, and LOS. Furthermore, the adoption of LMMBV would allow savings per patient up to EUR 364 and EUR 328 for hospitals and EUR 91 and EUR 59 for payers in Italy and Germany, respectively. In Spain, average savings per patient could reach up to EUR 165 for both payers and hospitals. Savings were most sensitive to test accuracy, with DSA confirming the robustness of the results.

CONCLUSIONS

Combining LMMBV with the current SOC diagnostic process is expected to provide clinical and economic benefits in Italy, Germany, and Spain.

Biomarkers for iron metabolism among patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia caused by infection with SARS-CoV-2, bacteria, and influenza

BACKGROUND

Ferritin, the central iron storage protein, has attracted attention as a biomarker of severe COVID-19. Few studies have investigated regulators of iron metabolism in the context of COVID-19. The aim was to evaluate biomarkers for iron metabolism in the acute phase response to community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) caused by SARS-CoV-2 compared to CAP caused by bacteria or influenza virus in hospitalized patients.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study of 164 patients from the Surviving Pneumonia Cohort recruited between January 8, 2019 and May 26, 2020. Blood samples were collected at admission and analyzed for levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), ferritin, soluble transferrin receptor, erythroferrone, and hepcidin.

RESULTS

Median (IQR) hepcidin was higher in SARS-CoV-2 with 143.8 (100.7-180.7) ng/mL compared to bacterial and influenza infection with 78.8 (40.1-125.4) and 53.5 (25.2-125.8) ng/mL, respectively. The median ferritin level was more than 2-fold higher in patients with SARS-CoV-2 compared to the other etiologies (p<0.001). Patients with SARS-CoV-2 had lower levels of erythroferrone and CRP compared to those infected with bacteria.

CONCLUSION

Higher levels of hepcidin and lower levels of erythroferrone despite lower CRP levels among patients with SARS-CoV-2 compared to those infected with bacteria indicate alterations in iron metabolism in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Cost impact analysis of novel host-response diagnostic for patients with community-acquired pneumonia in the emergency department

BACKGROUND

There is significant over-prescription of antibiotics for suspected community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) patients as bacterial and viral pathogens are difficult to differentiate. To address this issue, a host response diagnostic called MeMed BV (MMBV) was developed that accurately differentiates bacterial from viral infection at the point of need by integrating measurements of multiple biomarkers. A literature-based cost-impact model was developed that compared the cost impact and clinical benefits between using the standard of care diagnostics combined with MMBV relative to standard of care diagnostics alone.

METHODS

The patient population was stratified according to the pneumonia severity index, and cost savings were considered from payer and provider perspectives. Four scenarios were considered. The main analysis considers the cost impact of differences in antibiotic stewardship and resulting adverse events. The first, second, and third scenarios combine the impacts on antibiotic stewardship with changes in hospital admission probability, length of hospital stay and diagnosis related group (DRG) reallocation, and hospital admission probability, length of stay, and DRG reallocation in combination, respectively.

RESULTS

The main analysis results show overall per-patient savings of $37 for payers and $223 for providers. Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 produced savings of $137, $189, and $293 for payers, and $339, $713, and $809 for providers, respectively.

LIMITATIONS

Models are simulations of real-world clinical processes, and are not sensitive to variations in clinical practice driven by differences in physician practice styles, differences in facility-level practice patterns, and patient comorbidities expected to exacerbate the clinical impact of CAP. Hospital models are limited to costs and do not consider differences in revenue associated with each approach.

CONCLUSIONS

Introducing MMBV to the current SOC diagnostic process is likely to be cost-saving to both hospitals and payers when considering impacts on antibiotic distribution, hospital admission rate, hospital LOS, and DRG reallocation.

Development and internal validation of a diagnostic prediction model for COVID-19 at time of admission to hospital

BACKGROUND

Early coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) diagnosis prior to laboratory testing results is crucial for infection control in hospitals. Models exist predicting COVID-19 diagnosis, but significant concerns exist regarding methodology and generalizability.

AIM

To generate the first COVID-19 diagnosis risk score for use at the time of hospital admission using the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) checklist.

DESIGN

A multivariable diagnostic prediction model for COVID-19 using the TRIPOD checklist applied to a large single-centre retrospective observational study of patients with suspected COVID-19.

METHODS

581 individuals were admitted with suspected COVID-19; the majority had laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 (420/581, 72.2%). Retrospective collection was performed of electronic clinical records and pathology data.

RESULTS

The final multivariable model demonstrated AUC 0.8535 (95% confidence interval 0.8121-0.8950). The final model used six clinical variables that are routinely available in most low and high-resource settings. Using a cut-off of 2, the derived risk score has a sensitivity of 78.1% and specificity of 86.8%. At COVID-19 prevalence of 10% the model has a negative predictive value (NPV) of 96.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our risk score is intended for diagnosis of COVID-19 in individuals admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19. The score is the first developed for COVID-19 diagnosis using the TRIPOD checklist. It may be effective as a tool to rule out COVID-19 and function at different pandemic phases of variable COVID-19 prevalence. The simple score could be used by any healthcare worker to support hospital infection control prior to laboratory testing results.

Plasma cytokine profile on admission related to aetiology in community-acquired pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Potentially unnecessary antibiotic use for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) contributes to selection of antibiotic-resistant pathogens. Cytokine expression at the time that treatment is started may assist in identifying patients not requiring antibiotics. We determined plasma cytokine patterns in patients retrospectively categorized as strict viral, pneumococcal or combined viral-bacterial CAP.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether cytokine-based prediction models can be used to differentiate strict viral CAP from other aetiologies at admission.

METHODS

From 344 hospitalized CAP patients, 104 patients were categorized as viral CAP (n = 17), pneumococcal CAP (n = 48) and combined bacterial-viral CAP (n = 39). IL-6, IL-10, IL-27, IFN-γ and C-reactive protein (CRP) were determined on admission in plasma. Prediction of strict viral aetiology was explored with two multivariate regression models and ROC curves.

RESULTS

Viral pneumonia was predicted by logistic regression using multiple cytokine levels (IL-6, IL-27 and CRP) with an AUC of 0.911 (95% CI: 0.852-0.971, P < .001). For the same patients the AUC of CRP was 0.813 (95% CI: 0.728-0.898, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated differences in cytokine expression in selected CAP patients between viral and bacterial aetiology. Prospective validation studies are warranted.

Severe atypical pneumonia in critically ill patients: a retrospective multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Chlamydophila pneumoniae (CP) and Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) patients could require intensive care unit (ICU) admission for acute respiratory failure.

METHODS

Adults admitted between 2000 and 2015 to 20 French ICUs with proven atypical pneumonia were retrospectively described. Patients with MP were compared to Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP) pneumonia patients admitted to ICUs.

RESULTS

A total of 104 patients were included, 71 men and 33 women, with a median age of 56 [44-67] years. MP was the causative agent for 76 (73%) patients and CP for 28 (27%) patients. Co-infection was documented for 18 patients (viruses for 8 [47%] patients). Median number of involved quadrants on chest X-ray was 2 [1-4], with alveolar opacities (n = 61, 75%), interstitial opacities (n = 32, 40%). Extra-pulmonary manifestations were present in 34 (33%) patients. Mechanical ventilation was required for 75 (72%) patients and vasopressors for 41 (39%) patients. ICU length of stay was 16.5 [9.5-30.5] days, and 11 (11%) patients died in the ICU. Compared with SP patients, MP patients had more extensive interstitial pneumonia, fewer pleural effusion, and a lower mortality rate [6 (8%) vs. 17 (22%), p = 0.013]. According MCA analysis, some characteristics at admission could discriminate MP and SP. MP was more often associated with hemolytic anemia, abdominal manifestations, and extensive chest radiograph abnormalities. SP-P was associated with shock, confusion, focal crackles, and focal consolidation.

CONCLUSION

In this descriptive study of atypical bacterial pneumonia requiring ICU admission, mortality was 11%. The comparison with SP pneumonia identified clinical, laboratory, and radiographic features that may suggest MP or CP pneumonia.

Review of Non-Bacterial Infections in Respiratory Medicine: Viral Pneumonia

Although bacteria are the main pathogens involved in community-acquired pneumonia, a significant number of community-acquired pneumonia are caused by viruses, either directly or as part of a co-infection. The clinical picture of these different pneumonias can be very similar, but viral infection is more common in the pediatric and geriatric populations, leukocytes are not generally elevated, fever is variable, and upper respiratory tract symptoms often occur; procalcitonin levels are not generally affected. For years, the diagnosis of viral pneumonia was based on cell culture and antigen detection, but since the introduction of polymerase chain reaction techniques in the clinical setting, identification of these pathogens has increased and new microorganisms such as human bocavirus have been discovered. In general, influenza virus type A and syncytial respiratory virus are still the main pathogens involved in this entity. However, in recent years, outbreaks of deadly coronavirus and zoonotic influenza virus have demonstrated the need for constant alert in the face of new emerging pathogens. Neuraminidase inhibitors for viral pneumonia have been shown to reduce transmission in cases of exposure and to improve the clinical progress of patients in intensive care; their use in common infections is not recommended. Ribavirin has been used in children with syncytial respiratory virus, and in immunosuppressed subjects. Apart from these drugs, no antiviral has been shown to be effective. Prevention with anti-influenza virus vaccination and with monoclonal antibodies, in the case of syncytial respiratory virus, may reduce the incidence of pneumonia.

Review of Non-Bacterial Infections in Respiratory Medicine: Viral Pneumonia

Although bacteria are the main pathogens involved in community-acquired pneumonia, a significant number of community-acquired pneumonia are caused by viruses, either directly or as part of a co-infection. The clinical picture of these different pneumonias can be very similar, but viral infection is more common in the pediatric and geriatric populations, leukocytes are not generally elevated, fever is variable, and upper respiratory tract symptoms often occur; procalcitonin levels are not generally affected. For years, the diagnosis of viral pneumonia was based on cell culture and antigen detection, but since the introduction of polymerase chain reaction techniques in the clinical setting, identification of these pathogens has increased and new microorganisms such as human bocavirus have been discovered. In general, influenza virus type A and syncytial respiratory virus are still the main pathogens involved in this entity. However, in recent years, outbreaks of deadly coronavirus and zoonotic influenza virus have demonstrated the need for constant alert in the face of new emerging pathogens. Neuraminidase inhibitors for viral pneumonia have been shown to reduce transmission in cases of exposure and to improve the clinical progress of patients in intensive care; their use in common infections is not recommended. Ribavirin has been used in children with syncytial respiratory virus, and in immunosuppressed subjects. Apart from these drugs, no antiviral has been shown to be effective. Prevention with anti-influenza virus vaccination and with monoclonal antibodies, in the case of syncytial respiratory virus, may reduce the incidence of pneumonia.

Predicting pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia in the emergency department: evaluation of clinical parameters

The aim of this study was to quantify the value of clinical predictors available in the emergency department (ED) in predicting Streptococcus pneumoniae as the cause of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). A prospective, observational, cohort study of patients with CAP presenting in the ED was performed. Pneumococcal aetiology of CAP was based on either bacteraemia, or S. pneumoniae being cultured from sputum, or urinary immunochromatographic assay positivity, or positivity of a novel serotype-specific urinary antigen detection test. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors and various cut-off values of probability scores were used to evaluate the usefulness of the model. Three hundred and twenty-eight (31.0%) of 1057 patients with CAP had pneumococcal CAP. Nine independent predictors for pneumococcal pneumonia were identified, but the clinical utility of this prediction model was disappointing, because of low positive predictive values or a small yield. Clinical criteria have insufficient diagnostic capacity to predict pneumococcal CAP. Rapid antigen detection tests are needed to diagnose S. pneumoniae at the time of hospital admission.

Utility of inflammatory markers in predicting the aetiology of pneumonia in children

We aimed to investigate the diagnostic value of applying cut-off levels of inflammatory markers and to develop a prediction model for differentiation between bacterial and viral infections in paediatric community-acquired pneumonia based on C-reactive protein (CRP), neutrophil, and white cell counts (WCC). Amongst 401 children, those with bacterial pneumonia were older than those with viral pneumonia (P<0.001). Compared to viral, bacterial infections had a higher median CRP level (P<0.001), whereas WCC and neutrophil count were not different. Bacterial infections were associated with higher CRP >80 mg/L than viral infections (P=0.001), but levels <20 mg/L were not discriminatory (P=0.254). Receiver operating characteristic curve of the model for differentiating bacterial from viral pneumonia based on age, CRP, and neutrophil count produced area under the curve of 0.894 with 75.7% sensitivity and 89.4% specificity. This aetiological discriminant prediction model is a potentially useful tool in clinical management and epidemiological studies of paediatric pneumonia.

Etiological analysis and predictive diagnostic model building of community-acquired pneumonia in adult outpatients in Beijing, China

BACKGROUND

Etiological epidemiology and diagnosis are important issues in adult community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), and identifying pathogens based on patient clinical features is especially a challenge. CAP-associated main pathogens in adults include viruses as well as bacteria. However, large-scale epidemiological investigations of adult viral CAP in China are still lacking. In this study, we analyzed the etiology of adult CAP in Beijing, China and constructed diagnostic models based on combinations of patient clinical factors.

METHODS

A multicenter cohort was established with 500 adult CAP outpatients enrolled in Beijing between November 2010 to October 2011. Multiplex and quantitative real-time fluorescence PCR were used to detect 15 respiratory viruses and mycoplasma pneumoniae, respectively. Bacteria were detected with culture and enzyme immunoassay of the Streptococcus pneumoniae urinary antigen. Univariate analysis, multivariate analysis, discriminatory analysis and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to build predictive models for etiological diagnosis of adult CAP.

RESULTS

Pathogens were detected in 54.2% (271/500) of study patients. Viruses accounted for 36.4% (182/500), mycoplasma pneumoniae for 18.0% (90/500) and bacteria for 14.4% (72/500) of the cases. In 182 of the patients with viruses, 219 virus strains were detected, including 166 single and 53 mixed viral infections. Influenza A virus represented the greatest proportion with 42.0% (92/219) and 9.1% (20/219) in single and mixed viral infections, respectively. Factors selected for the predictive etiological diagnostic model of viral CAP included cough, dyspnea, absence of chest pain and white blood cell count (4.0-10.0) × 10(9)/L, and those of mycoplasma pneumoniae CAP were being younger than 45 years old and the absence of a coexisting disease. However, these models showed low accuracy levels for etiological diagnosis (areas under ROC curve for virus and mycoplasma pneumoniae were both 0.61, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Greater consideration should be given to viral and mycoplasma pneumoniae infections in adult CAP outpatients. While predictive etiological diagnostic models of viral and mycoplasma pneumoniae based on combinations of demographic and clinical factors may provide indications of etiology, diagnostic confirmation of CAP remains dependent on laboratory pathogen test results.

Evaluation of the Binax NOW Streptococcus pneumoniae urinary antigen assay in intensive care patients hospitalized for pneumonia

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the diagnostic performance of Binax Now S. pneumoniae urinary antigen rapid immunochromatographic membrane test (ICT) for patients with suspicion of community-acquired pneumonia hospitalized in intensive care and to assess the impact of prior antibiotics on its diagnostic performance.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Retrospective study in a medicosurgical ICU in a 700-bed general hospital.

PATIENTS

Charts of patients with ICT performed (result blinded) were reviewed between May 2002 and July 2004. ICT has been performed in 140 of the 1,006 patients hospitalized in the unit; two-thirds had received antibiotics prior to admission.

MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS

Diagnosis of pneumonia was made according to usual criteria. All patients had at least one microbiological test. Pneumonia diagnosis confirmed in 108 patients including 32 pneumococcal. ICT was positive in 23 of 32 patients with pneumococcal pneumonia, in 11 of 108 without, and in none of the 32 patients without pneumonia, resulting in sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of, respectively: 72%, 90%, 68% and 92%. Positive likelihood ratios were comparable among patients with or without prior antibiotics (respectively 6 and 12 for 7 in the overall population).

CONCLUSIONS

This first clinical evaluation of ICT in intensive care patients hospitalized for suspicion of community-acquired pneumonia, demonstrated performance in accordance with published data even in the case of prior antibiotics. Its clinical interest and impact on antibiotics policy remain to be refined.

Community-acquired pneumonia in ambulatory patients: relative importance of atypical pathogens

The presence of atypical pathogens in community-acquired pneumonia is difficult to diagnose; culture is time-consuming and requires considerable expertise and serological identification may be inaccurate. Nevertheless, the increasing importance of atypical organisms has been recognised in recent years. Variations in aetiology have been detected in different geographical regions and different patient populations. The season of the year may also influence aetiology, and some infections follow a cyclical pattern. When an atypical pathogen is suspected, a macrolide antibiotic is an appropriate choice as, in addition to activity against these organisms, they are usually effective against the Gram-positive and Gram-negative respiratory pathogens implicated in community-acquired pneumonia.

Streptococcus pneumoniae respiratory tract infections

This review describes recent contributions to our understanding of pneumococcal pneumonia. Two genes have been described that encode enzymes involved with the biosynthesis of muropeptides. These enzymes may be novel antibiotic targets. The clinical impact of increasing antibiotic resistance on the treatment of pneumonia is the particular focus of the review. As resistant strains are more commonly associated with severe infections in patients with underlying disease, the interpretation of an association of resistance with poor clinical outcome is complicated.