Application of Risk Scores for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B: Current Status and Future Perspective

Applicability of Risk Scores to an Indian Cohort of Hepatitis B-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

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HBcrAg-based risk score performs better than the HBV DNA-based scores for HCC prediction in grey zone patients who are HBeAg-negative

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Risk scores have been designed to predict the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in treatment-naive patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). However, little is known about their predictive accuracy in HBeAg-negative patients in the grey zone (GZ). We aimed to develop a HBcrAg-based HCC risk score and explore whether it outperforms other risk scores in GZ patients.

METHODS

Two retrospective cohorts of HBeAg-negative patients with American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases-defined GZ were established for derivation and validation (Taiwanese, N = 911; Japanese, N = 806). All of them were non-cirrhotic at baseline and remained treatment-naive during the follow-up. The primary endpoint was HCC development.

RESULTS

In a median follow-up period of 15.5 years, 85 patients developed HCC in the derivation cohort. We found that age, sex, alanine aminotransferase, platelet count, and HBcrAg, but not HBV DNA levels, were independent predictors and a 20-point GZ-HCC score was developed accordingly. The 10-year and 15-year area under the ROC curve (AUROC) ranged from 0.83 to 0.86, which outperformed the HBV DNA-based HCC risk scores, including REACH-B and GAG-HCC scores (AUROC ranging from 0.66 to 0.74). The better performance was also validated in EASL- and Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver-defined GZ patients. These findings remained consistent in the validation cohort. Finally, the low-risk and high-risk GZ patients (stratified by a score of 8) had an HCC risk close to inactive CHB and immune-active CHB patients, respectively, in both cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The HBcrAg-based GZ-HCC score predicts HCC better than other HBV DNA-based risk scores in GZ patients who are HBeAg-negative patients, which may help optimise their clinical management.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

We have developed a risk score based on HBcrAg, which has shown better predictive ability for HCC compared with other risk scores based on HBV DNA. Using a score of 8, GZ patients can be classified into low- and high-risk groups, which can guide follow up and early treatment, respectively. This validated risk score is a valuable tool for optimising the management of GZ patients who are HBeAg-negative.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores from Modeling to Real Clinical Practice in Areas Highly Endemic for Hepatitis B Infection

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for the majority of primary liver cancers and represents a global health challenge. Liver cancer ranks third in cancer-related mortality with 830,000 deaths and sixth in incidence with 906,000 new cases annually worldwide. HCC most commonly occurs in patients with underlying liver disease, especially chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in highly endemic areas. Predicting HCC risk based on scoring models for patients with chronic liver disease is a simple, effective strategy for identifying and stratifying patients to improve the early diagnosis rate and prognosis of HCC. We examined 23 HCC risk scores published worldwide in CHB patients with (n=10) or without (n=13) antiviral treatment. We also described the characteristics of the risk score's predictive performance and application status. In the future, higher predictive accuracy could be achieved by combining novel technologies and machine learning algorithms to develop and update HCC risk score models and integrated early warning and diagnosis systems for HCC in hospitals and communities.

Safety considerations for withdrawal of nucleos(t)ide analogues in patients with chronic hepatitis B: First, do no harm

Nucleos(t)ide analogues (NA) are widely used to treat hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, but they cannot eradicate the virus and treatment duration can be lifelong if the endpoint is set at seroclearance of the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). As an alternative strategy, finite NA therapy without the prerequisite of HBsAg seroclearance has been proposed to allow treatment cessation in patients with sustained undetectable HBV viremia for two to three years. However, reactivation of viral replication almost always follows NA withdrawal. Whereas HBV reactivation might facilitate HBsAg seroclearance in some, it could lead to serious acute flare-ups in a certain proportion of patients. Occurrence and consequences of NA withdrawal flares are complicated with various factors involving the virus, host, and treatment. Accurate risk prediction for severe flares following NA cessation is essential to ensure patient safety. The risks of life-threatening flares in patients who discontinued NA according to the stopping rules of current guidelines or local reimbursement policies have recently been quantitatively estimated in large-scale studies, which also provided empirical evidence to help identify vulnerable patients at risk of devastating outcomes. Moreover, risk predictors were further explored and validated to hopefully aid in patient selection and management. In this narrative review with a focus on patient safety, we summarize and discuss current literature on the incidence of severe flares following NA cessation, risk stratification for candidate selection, rules of posttreatment monitoring, and indications for treatment resumption. We also share our thoughts on the limitations of existing knowledge and suggestions for future research.

Hepatocellular carcinoma prediction model performance decreases with long-term antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B patients

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Existing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models are derived mainly from pretreatment or early on-treatment parameters. We reassessed the dynamic changes in the performance of 17 HCC models in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) during long-term antiviral therapy (AVT).

METHODS

Among 987 CHB patients administered long-term entecavir therapy, 660 patients had 8 years of follow-up data. Model scores were calculated using on-treatment values at 2.5, 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5, and 5 years of AVT to predict threeyear HCC occurrence. Model performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC). The original model cutoffs to distinguish different levels of HCC risk were evaluated by the log-rank test.

RESULTS

The AUROCs of the 17 HCC models varied from 0.51 to 0.78 when using on-treatment scores from years 2.5 to 5. Models with a cirrhosis variable showed numerically higher AUROCs (pooled at 0.65-0.73 for treated, untreated, or mixed treatment models) than models without (treated or mixed models: 0.61-0.68; untreated models: 0.51-0.59). Stratification into low, intermediate, and high-risk levels using the original cutoff values could no longer reflect the true HCC incidence using scores after 3.5 years of AVT for models without cirrhosis and after 4 years of AVT for models with cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

The performance of existing HCC prediction models, especially models without the cirrhosis variable, decreased in CHB patients on long-term AVT. The optimization of existing models or the development of novel models for better HCC prediction during long-term AVT is warranted.

Global burden of hepatitis B virus: current status, missed opportunities and a call for action

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection affects about 296 million people worldwide and is the leading aetiology of cirrhosis and liver cancer globally. Major medical complications also include acute flares and extrahepatic manifestations. In addition, people living with HBV infection also experience stigma. HBV-related cirrhosis resulted in an estimated 331,000 deaths in 2019, and it is estimated that the number of deaths from HBV-related liver cancer in 2019 was 192,000, an increase from 156,000 in 2010. Meanwhile, HBV remains severely underdiagnosed and effective measures that can prevent infection and disease progression are underutilized. Birth dose coverage for HBV vaccines remains low, particularly in low-income countries or regions where HBV burden is high. Patients with HBV infection are inadequately evaluated and linked to care and are undertreated worldwide, even in high-income countries or regions. Despite the goal of the World Health Organization to eliminate viral hepatitis as a public health problem by 2030, the annual global deaths from HBV are projected to increase by 39% from 2015 to 2030 if the status quo remains. In this Review, we discuss the current status and future projections of the global burden of HBV infection. We also discuss gaps in the current care cascade and propose future directions.

Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients on antiviral therapy: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The risk prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is a challenge especially in the era of antiviral therapy. The aim of this meta-analysis was to comprehensively evaluate the performance of existing HCC prediction scores in HCC prediction on antivirals.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science and Cochrane Library for relevant prospective studies from the inception to August 24, 2021. The areas under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROCs) and their relevant 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the risk prediction models were calculated.

RESULTS

Nine eligible articles with 21561 patients (HCC developed in 947patients, 4.39%; mean follow-up duration: 5 years) and 14 predictive risk scores were included. The pooled AUROC of all included scores for 3-year and 5-year prediction of HCC was 0.72 (95%CI 0.68-0.76) and 0.80 (95%CI 0.76-0.83), with the corresponding sensitivity of 0.84 (95% CI 0.71-0.92) and 0.91(95% CI 0.86-0.95) and specificity of 0.46 (95% CI 0.30-0.63) and 0.48 (95% CI 0.37-0.59), respectively. All the 14 prediction models, as a whole, performed well in different populations, whether they include factor cirrhotic status or not; while those integrated viral load were less accurate (sensitivity 0.78, specificity of 0.57).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with CHB on antivirals, the scores included in our meta-analysis have been proven to be useful for mid-long term HCC prediction. Viral load seems not useful, whereas cirrhosis and its objective surrogates remain the predominant components. These models are expected to translate clinical benefits if used in complementarity with regular HCC surveillance.

Validation of the aMAP score to predict hepatocellular carcinoma development in a cohort of alcohol‐related cirrhosis patients

Background and Aims

The aMAP score was recently devised to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. However, its performance was not tested in alcohol‐related cirrhosis (ALC). We aimed to validate the aMAP score in a cohort of ALC patients.

Method

Study participants with ALC from a prior genome‐wide association study were included. All participants had a history of high alcohol consumption. Cirrhosis was defined clinically, using fibroscan and/or histology. Patients were followed until the last liver imaging, HCC, liver transplantation (LT) or death with the latter two adjusted as competing risks.

Results

A total of 269 ALC patients were included: male (72.5%), Caucasian (98.9%), median age 56 years, and median Child‐Pugh score 7. The median aMAP score was 60: 12.3% low‐risk, 35.3% medium‐risk and 52.4% high‐risk. After a median follow‐up of 41 months, 14 patients developed HCC, 27 received LT and 104 died. The aMAP score predicted HCC development (hazard ratio 1.12 per point increase, P < .001) with good separation of cumulative incidence function between risk groups. The area under the time‐dependent receiver operating characteristics curve for predicting HCC development was 0.83 at 1 year and 0.82 at 5 years which was similar to ADRESS‐HCC and Veterans Affairs Healthcare System scores respectively.

Conclusions

We validated the excellent performance of the aMAP score in ALC and affirm its applicability across wider aetiologies.