Evaluation of the 2015 AGA guidelines on pancreatic cystic neoplasms in a large surgically confirmed multicenter cohort

Incidental Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas: Performance of the AGA, European, and IAP Guidelines in Advising Further Management After Endoscopic Ultrasound-guided Fine Needle Aspiration

OBJECTIVES

We compared the performance of AGA-2015, ESG-2018, and IAP-2024 guidelines in referring patients for surgery versus surveillance when applied to incidental after diagnosis by EUS-FNA.

METHODS

This is a single-center, retrospective study with prospective data collection. PLs identified incidentally on CT or MRI/MRCP performed for other diseases with inconclusive imaging results were eligible for analysis. After EUS-FNA and microhistologic diagnosis, each of the guidelines was applied; sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratios were compared.

RESULTS

One hundred and forty asymptomatic patients (mean age 64.7 y, 61% females) had a confirmed diagnosis of MN. Of these, 42 (30%) had "high-risk stigmata," and 16 (11.4%) were malignant. AGA-2015, ESG-2018, and IAP-2024 criteria would have advised surgery unnecessarily in 66%, 15%, and 46%, respectively ( P <0.001). AGA-2015, ESG-2018, and IAP-2024 criteria failed to identify 59%, 46.1%, and 33.3% of HGD/IC, respectively ( P =1.00).

CONCLUSIONS

The AGA-2015 criteria were highly specific, while IAP-2024 had superior sensitivity. All had moderate sensitivity to indicate surgery, and all missed similar numbers of malignant lesions. Performing EUS-FNA before the application of guidelines seems appropriate to guide further management of asymptomatic PLs, preventing unnecessary surgery and referring patients appropriately for surveillance. The ESG-2018 guideline proved the most accurate for this purpose.

Surveillance of subcentimeter side-branch intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms: risk of invasive disease and follow-up recommendations

BACKGROUND

Side-branch intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (SB-IPMNs) are increasingly recognized with the increasing use of high-fidelity cross-sectional imaging, particularly subcentimeter (<1 cm) lesions. Data regarding the risk of progression in subcentimeter cysts are absent. This study aimed to define the risk associated with subcentimeter SB-IPMNs and to propose a surveillance strategy based on this cohort.

METHODS

A prospectively maintained database was queried for patients with SB-IPMN who underwent nonoperative surveillance with ≥2 cross-sectional imaging studies performed >6 months apart. Clinically relevant (CR) progression has been previously defined as the development of symptoms, worrisome/high-risk stigmata, or invasive cancer (IC). Growth of ≥5 mm in 2 years is considered CR progression, whereas size of ≥3 cm alone is not.

RESULTS

A total of 1000 patients were included in the study, of whom 291 (29.1%) had SB-IPMN of <1 cm. The median follow-up times from diagnosis were 7.1 years (IQR, 3.2-10.4) in subcentimeter cysts and 6.4 years (IQR, 2.8-10.0) in cysts of ≥1 cm (P =.090). CR progression was less common in the subcentimeter cyst group than in the larger cyst group (7.2% vs 19.0%, respectively; log-rank P <.001). Cysts that progressed did so at similar time intervals (median: 3.7 years in the subcentimeter cyst group vs 3.3 years in the larger cyst group; P =.707). The subcentimeter cyst group developed IC (1.4% in the subcentimeter cyst group vs 1.8% in the larger cyst group; log-rank; P =.608) and high-risk pathology (high-grade dysplasia [HGD]/IC) at a similar rate as the larger cyst group (P =.198). Of 547 patients with cysts that were initially stable for 5 years of surveillance, 25 (4.7%) developed high-risk pathology. This was not different by initial cyst size (log-rank P =.116). Spline curves demonstrated consistently low risk of HGD/IC across increasing cyst size despite a higher rate of CR progression. The CR progression criteria best discriminated high-risk pathology in subcentimeter cysts. The rate of size growth did not correlate with high-risk pathology (hazards ratio, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.88-1.50).

CONCLUSION

Subcentimeter SB-IPMNs develop malignant potential as frequently as their larger counterparts and do so at similar time courses. Often incidental, subcentimeter-presumed SB-IPMNs are diagnosed at arbitrary points in the disease course and require similar surveillance duration as their larger counterparts. The rate of growth is not predictive of high-risk pathology. These cysts do not develop CR progression as frequently. However, such features better discriminate high-risk pathology in subcentimeter cysts, making the development of such features more concerning when they occur.

Consequences of a Surveillance Strategy for Side-branch Intraductal Pancreatic Mucinous Neoplasms: Long-term Follow-up of One Thousand Cysts

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the rate of progression in surveilled cysts and assess what factors should indicate delayed resection.

BACKGROUND

Side-branch intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (SB-IPMNs) are increasingly discovered, making it challenging to identify which patients require resection, thus avoiding inappropriate treatment. Most incidental lesions are surveyed, yet the consequences of that decision remain uncertain.

METHODS

A prospectively maintained database of pancreatic cystic neoplasms was queried for patients with SB-IPMN. Patients with ≥2 imaging studies >6 months apart were included. Clinically relevant progression (CR-progression) was defined by symptoms, worrisome/high-risk stigmata, or invasive cancer (IC). Growth ≥5 mm in 2 years is considered CR-progression; size ≥3 cm alone is not.

RESULTS

Between 1997 and 2023, 1337 patients were diagnosed with SB-IPMN. Thirty-seven (2.7%) underwent up-front surgery; 1000 (75.0%) had >6 months of surveillance.The rate of CR-progression was 15.3% (n = 153) based on size increase (n = 63, 6.3%), main-duct involvement (n = 48, 4.8%), symptoms (n = 8, 5.0%), or other criteria (n = 34, 3.4%). At a median follow-up of 6.6 years (interquartile range: 3.0-10.26), 17 patients (1.7%) developed IC. Those with CR-progression developed IC in 11.1% (n = 17) and high-grade dysplasia (HGD) in 6.5% (n = 10). Nearly half of the cancers were not contiguous with the surveyed SB-IPMN.Size ≥3 cm was not associated with HGD/IC ( P = 0.232). HGD/IC was least common in CR-progression determined by size growth (6.3%) versus main-duct involvement (24%) or other (43%, P < 0.001)Patients with CR-progression demonstrated improved survival (overall survival) with resection on time-to-event ( P < 0.001) and multivariate Cox regression (hazard ratio = 0.205, 0.096-0.439, P < 0.001) analyses. Overall survival was not improved with resection in all patients ( P = 0.244).

CONCLUSIONS

CR-progression for SB-IPMNs is uncommon, with the development of cancer anywhere in the pancreas being rare. Initial size should not drive resection. Long-term and consistent nonoperative surveillance is warranted, with surgery currently reserved for CR-progression, knowing that the majority of these still harbor low-grade pathology.

It is not necessary to resect all mucinous cystic neoplasms of the pancreas: current guidelines do not reflect the actual risk of malignancy

BACKGROUND

Mucinous Cystic Neoplasms (MCN) of the pancreas are premalignant cysts for which current guidelines support pancreatic resection. The primary aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to define the pooled rate of malignancy for MCN.

METHODS

A systematic review of eligible studies published between 2000 and 2021 was performed on PubMed and Embase. Primary outcome was rate of malignancy. Data regarding high-risk features, including cyst size and mural nodules, were collected and analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 40 studies and 3292 patients with resected MCN were included in the final analysis. The pooled rate of malignancy was 16.1% (95%CI 13.1-19.0). The rate of malignant MCN in studies published before 2012 was significantly higher than that of studies published after recent guidelines were published (21.0% vs 14.9%, p < 0.001). Malignant MCN were larger than benign (mean difference 25.9 mm 95%CI 14.50-37.43, p < 0.001) with a direct correlation between size and presence of malignant MCN (R2 = 0.28, p = 0.020). A SROC identified a threshold of 65 mm to be associated with the diagnosis of malignant MCN. Presence of mural nodules was associated with the diagnosis of a malignant MCN (OR = 4.34, 95%CI 3.00-6.29, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Whereas guidelines recommend resection of all MCN, the rate of malignancy in resected MCN is 16%, implying that surveillance has a role in most cases, and that surgical selection criteria are warranted. Size and presence of mural nodules are significantly associated with an increased risk of malignant degeneration, small MCN and without mural nodules can be considered for surveillance.

Comparing accuracy of high-risk features for detecting advanced neoplasia in pancreatic cystic lesions: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The American Gastroenterological Association recommends endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) for evaluating pancreatic cystic lesions (PCL) with ≥2 high-risk features (HRF), whereas the American College of Gastroenterology recommends EUS for ≥1 HRF. This systematic review and meta-analysis compared the diagnostic accuracy of using ≥1 vs. ≥2 HRF for assessing the risk of advanced neoplasia (AN) and performing EUS in PCL.

Methods

An electronic database search was performed for eligible studies. AN was defined as pancreatic adenocarcinoma, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm or mucinous cystadenoma with high-grade dysplasia, pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. HRF included cyst size ≥3 cm, solid component, and dilated pancreatic duct ≥5 mm. The primary outcome was the sensitivity and specificity of using ≥1 vs. ≥2 HRF as an indication for EUS to detect AN in PCL.

Results

Of 38 studies initially screened, 8 were included in the final analysis. Seven studies assessed the accuracy of ≥2 HRF and 4 studies assessed ≥1 HRF. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of EUS for detecting AN were 41.7% (95% confidence interval 19.5-67.8%), 90.8% (81.9-95.5%), 30.4% (19.4-44.2%) and 94.3% (89.6-97.0%) with ≥2HRFs, and 77.1% (66.1-85.3%), 72.7% (50.4-87.5%), 17.95% (10.3-29.4%), 98.1% (90.8-99.6%), respectively, with ≥1 HRF.

Conclusion

Performing EUS for PCL with ≥1 HRF could offer greater sensitivity in detecting AN compared to ≥2 HRF, with a similar negative predictive value.

Long-term follow-up of Branch-Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms with negative Sendai Criteria: the therapeutic challenge of patients who convert to positive Sendai Criteria

BACKGROUND

The management of Branch-Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm (BD-IPMN) is still controversial. Our objective was to assess the long-term follow-up (FU) of patients with "low-risk" BD-IPMN according to the Sendai-International Consensus Guidelines (ICG-I).

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of patients with BD-IPMN and Negative Sendai-Criteria (NSC) from January 2004 to October 2019. A univariate analysis was performed to determine factors associated with conversion to Positive Sendai-Criteria (PSC) and malignancy. Positive Predictive Value (PPV) and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of the IGC-I were assessed for the development of malignancy.

RESULTS

A total of 219 patients were selected and underwent a median 58-month FU. Thirty-seven (17%) patients developed PSC during FU including 12 (5.5%) with malignant lesions. Conversely, 182 patients (83%) did not develop malignancy. The NPV and PPV of ICG-I for malignancy were 100% and 32.4%, respectively. Among patients who developed PSC, those with cancer were >65years (OR = 3.57;p = 0.015) and had significantly higher serum CA-19-9 levels (OR = 5.27;p = 0.007).

CONCLUSION

The ICG-I is a safe strategy for FU of patients with BD-IPMN. The absence of PSC exclude malignancy. Among patients who develops PSC, the risk of cancer remains low and surgery should be decided according to their surgical risk and life expectancy.

Clinical and Economic Outcomes of Patients Undergoing Guideline-Directed Management of Pancreatic Cysts

INTRODUCTION

Numerous guidelines exist for the management of pancreatic cysts. We sought to compare the guideline-directed management strategies for pancreatic cysts by comparing 2 approaches (2017 International Consensus Guidelines and 2015 American Gastroenterological Association Guidelines) that differ significantly in their thresholds for imaging, surveillance, and surgery.

METHODS

We developed a Monte Carlo model to evaluate the outcomes for a cohort of 10,000 patients managed per each guideline. The primary outcome was mortality related to pancreatic cyst management. Secondary outcomes included all-cause mortality, missed cancers, number of surgeries, number of imaging studies, cumulative cost, and quality-adjusted life years.

RESULTS

Deaths because of pancreatic cyst management and quality-adjusted life years were similar in both guidelines at a significantly higher cost of $3.6 million per additional cancer detected in the Consensus Guidelines. Deaths from "unrelated" causes (1,422) vastly outnumbered deaths related to pancreatic cysts (125). Secondary outcomes included more missed cancers in the American Gastroenterological Association guideline (71 vs 49), more surgeries and imaging studies in the Consensus guideline (711 vs 163; 116,997 vs 68,912), and higher cost in the Consensus guideline ($168.3 million vs $89.4 million). As the rate of malignant transformation increases, a more-intensive guideline resulted in fewer deaths related to pancreatic cyst management.

DISCUSSION

Our study demonstrates trade-offs between more- and less-intensive management strategies for pancreatic cysts. Although deaths related to pancreatic cyst management were similar in each strategy, fewer missed cancers in the more-intensive surveillance strategy is offset by a greater number of surgical deaths and higher cost. In conclusion, our study identifies that if the rate malignant transformation of pancreatic cysts is low (0.12% annually), a less-intensive guideline will result in similar deaths to a more-intensive guideline at a much lower cost.

Determining when endoscopic ultrasound changes management for patients with pancreatic cystic neoplasms

INTRODUCTION

Pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCNs) are being incidentally detected at an increased rate due to increased CT and MRI usage. EUS is an emerging tool that can differentiate between benign and malignant features of pancreatic cysts. We hoped to identify the specific cross-sectional imaging findings and patient characteristics that warrant EUS referral.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective case-control chart review, evaluating patients, who were diagnosed with pancreatic cysts and underwent EUS between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2017.

RESULTS

EUS was found to change management when CT imaging found cyst size > 4 cm (OR = 4.07, p < 0.01), cyst size > 3 cm (OR = 3.79, p < 0.001) and associated solid component to the cyst (OR = 5.95, p < 0.01). Additionally, patient characteristics, including age less than 50 years, male sex and 10-pack year smoking history were significantly associated with EUS change in management.

DISCUSSION

Our findings suggest that EUS referral should be coordinated based on the findings of specific HRFs, with support from high risk patient characteristics, rather than the accumulation of multiple HRFs, as suggested by existing guidelines.

Accuracy of Fukuoka and American Gastroenterological Association Guidelines for Predicting Advanced Neoplasia in Pancreatic Cyst Neoplasm: A Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

A differential diagnosis of advanced pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCNs) is critical to determine optimal treatment. The Fukuoka and American Gastroenterological Association (AGA) guidelines are the most widely accepted criteria for the management of PCNs.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic value of these guidelines in predicting advanced neoplasia (AN).

METHODS

A comprehensive electronic search of the PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Scopus databases was conducted to identify all relevant studies evaluating the Fukuoka and AGA guidelines in surgically resected and histologically confirmed PCNs. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) were calculated as compound measures of diagnostic accuracy using the random-effects model. Summary of receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curves and the area under the curve (AUC) were also performed.

RESULTS

A total of 21 studies with 3723 patients were included in this meta-analysis. Of these studies, 15, 4, and 2 evaluated the Fukuoka guidelines, the AGA guidelines, and both guidelines, respectively. For AN prediction, the Fukuoka guidelines had a pooled sensitivity of 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.70), pooled specificity of 0.64 (95% CI 0.62-0.66), and pooled DOR of 6.28 (95% CI 4.38-9.01), with an AUC of the SROC of 0.78. AGA guidelines showed a pooled sensitivity of 0.59 (95% CI 0.52-0.65), pooled specificity of 0.77 (95% CI 0.74-0.80), and pooled DOR of 5.84 (95% CI 2.60-13.15), with an AUC of 0.79 (95% CI 0.70-0.88).

CONCLUSION

When used alone, the Fukuoka and AGA guidelines showed similar but unsatisfactory diagnostic accuracy in the risk stratification of malignant potential of PCN. Thus, we recommend that they be applied only as a broad framework in clinical practice.

Novel Methylated DNA Markers Discriminate Advanced Neoplasia in Pancreatic Cysts: Marker Discovery, Tissue Validation, and Cyst Fluid Testing

OBJECTIVES

Pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) may be precancerous. Those likely to harbor high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or pancreatic cancer (PC) are targets for surgical resection. Current algorithms to predict advanced neoplasia (HGD/PC) in PCLs lack diagnostic accuracy. In pancreatic tissue and cyst fluid (CF) from PCLs, we sought to identify and validate novel methylated DNA markers (MDMs) that discriminate HGD/PC from low-grade dysplasia (LGD) or no dysplasia (ND).

METHODS

From an unbiased whole-methylome discovery approach using predefined selection criteria followed by multistep validation on case (HGD or PC) and control (ND or LGD) tissues, we identified discriminant MDMs. Top candidate MDMs were then assayed by quantitative methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction on archival CF from surgically resected PCLs.

RESULTS

Of 25 discriminant MDMs identified in tissue, 13 were selected for validation in 134 CF samples (21 cases [8 HGD, 13 PC], 113 controls [45 ND, 68 LGD]). A tree-based algorithm using 2 CF-MDMs (TBX15, BMP3) achieved sensitivity and specificity above 90%. Discrimination was significantly better by this CF-MDM panel than by mutant KRAS or carcinoembryonic antigen, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.93 (95% confidence interval: 0.86-0.99), 0.71 (0.57-0.85), and 0.72 (0.60-0.84), respectively. Cutoffs for the MDM panel applied to an independent CF validation set (31 cases, 56 controls) yielded similarly high discrimination, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.86 (95% confidence interval: 0.77-0.94, P = 0.2).

DISCUSSION

Novel MDMs discovered and validated in tissue accurately identify PCLs harboring HGD/PC. A panel of 2 MDMs assayed in CF yielded results with potential to enhance current risk prediction algorithms. Prospective studies are indicated to optimize and further evaluate CF-MDMs for clinical use.

Long-term follow-up of low-risk branch-duct IPMNs of the pancreas: is main pancreatic duct dilatation the most worrisome feature?

OBJECTIVES

The management of branch-duct IPMN remains controversial due to the relatively low rate of malignant degeneration and the uncertain predictive role of high-risk stigmata (HRS) and worrisome features (WFs) identified by the 2012 International Consensus Guidelines. Our aim was to evaluate the evolution of originally low-risk (Fukuoka-negative) BD-IPMNs during a long follow-up period in order to determine whether the appearance of any clinical or morphological variables may be independently associated with the development of malignancy over time.

METHODS

A prospectively collected database of all patients with BD-IPMN referring to our Institute between 2002 and 2016 was retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analysis of association between changes during follow-up, including appearance of HRS/WFs, and development of malignancy (high-grade dysplasia/invasive carcinoma) was performed.

RESULTS

A total of 167 patients were selected for analysis, and seven developed malignant disease (4.2%). During a median follow-up time of 55 months, HRS appeared in only three cases but predicted malignancy with 100% specificity. Worrisome features, on the other hand, appeared in 44 patients (26.3%). Appearance of mural nodules and MPD dilatation >5 mm showed a significant association with malignancy in multivariate analysis (p = 0.004 and p = 0.001, respectively). MPD dilatation in particular proved to be the strongest independent risk factor for development of malignancy (OR = 24.5).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of pancreatic malignancy in this population is low but definite. The presence of major WFs, and especially MPD dilatation, should prompt a tighter follow-up with EUS and a valid cytological analysis whenever feasible.

Managing Incidental Pancreatic Cysts

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The goal of this review is to critically analyze the current literature regarding the management of incidental pancreatic cysts. Given their increased rates of detection due to the frequent use of cross-sectional imaging, correctly identifying the subset of high risk lesions that are appropriate for surgical resection is critical. However, the existing consensus and societal guidelines discussed in this review lack high quality data to create evidence-based recommendations, making achieving this important aim challenging.

RECENT FINDINGS

Several recent studies have focused on the natural history of pancreatic cysts and defining the role of endoscopic ultrasound, which remains unclear. EUS-guided diagnostic tools include molecular analysis of obtained fluid; EUS-guided FNA, FNB, and intracystic forceps biopsy of the cyst wall; and confocal endomicroscopy. While their precise role in diagnosing pancreatic cystic neoplasms remains to be defined, they represent promising innovations that may play a future role in cyst assessment and management. Large, long-term, prospective studies of incidentally identified pancreatic cysts are essential to fully understand their natural history and potential for neoplastic progression. Given the absence of such data at present, an individualized patient approach is recommended.

Does next-generation sequencing of cyst fluid improve management of pancreatic cystic neoplasms?

Pancreatic cystic lesions represent a heterogeneous group of diseases ranging from benign to malignant lesions. They are increasingly being detected due to the widespread use of cross-sectional imaging. Their management is a challenge because it is often not possible to reliably discriminate between malignant and nonmalignant lesions using current imaging technology. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) has the ability of both whole genome and targeted sequencing at a low cost and from a limited amount of DNA. NGS of cyst fluid aspired by endoscopic ultrasonography-guided fine-needle aspiration provides a valuable tool in biomarker research and may in the future help improve diagnosis and management of pancreatic cystic lesions.