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Halabi S, Roy A, Rydzewska L, Guo S, Godolphin P, Hussain M, Tangen C, Thompson I, Xie W, Carducci MA, Smith MR, Morris MJ, Gravis G, Dearnaley DP, Verhagen P, Goto T, James N, Buyse ME, Tierney JF, Sweeney C. Radiographic Progression-Free Survival and Clinical Progression-Free Survival as Potential Surrogates for Overall Survival in Men With Metastatic Hormone-Sensitive Prostate Cancer. J Clin Oncol 2024; 42:1044-1054. [PMID: 38181323 PMCID: PMC10950170 DOI: 10.1200/jco.23.01535] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2023] [Revised: 09/27/2023] [Accepted: 10/18/2023] [Indexed: 01/07/2024] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE Despite major increases in the longevity of men with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC), most men still die of prostate cancer. Phase III trials assessing new therapies in mHSPC with overall survival (OS) as the primary end point will take approximately a decade to complete. We investigated whether radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) and clinical PFS (cPFS) are valid surrogates for OS in men with mHSPC and could potentially be used to expedite future phase III clinical trials. METHODS We obtained individual patient data (IPD) from 9 eligible randomized trials comparing treatment regimens (different androgen deprivation therapy [ADT] strategies or ADT plus docetaxel in the control or research arms) in mHSPC. rPFS was defined as the time from random assignment to radiographic progression or death from any cause whichever occurred first; cPFS was defined as the time from random assignment to the date of radiographic progression, symptoms, initiation of new treatment, or death, whichever occurred first. We implemented a two-stage meta-analytic validation model where conditions of patient-level and trial-level surrogacy had to be met. We then computed the surrogate threshold effect (STE). RESULTS IPD from 6,390 patients randomly assigned from 1994 to 2012 from 13 units were pooled for a stratified analysis. The median OS, rPFS, and cPFS were 4.3 (95% CI, 4.2 to 4.5), 2.4 (95% CI, 2.3 to 2.5), and 2.3 years (95% CI, 2.2 to 2.4), respectively. The STEs were 0.80 and 0.81 for rPFS and cPFS end points, respectively. CONCLUSION Both rPFS and cPFS appear to be promising surrogate end points for OS. The STE of 0.80 or higher makes it viable for either rPFS or cPFS to be used as the primary end point that is surrogate for OS in phase III mHSPC trials with testosterone suppression alone as the backbone therapy and would expedite trial conduct.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susan Halabi
- Duke University Medical Center, Duke University, Durham, NC
| | - Akash Roy
- Duke University Medical Center, Duke University, Durham, NC
| | - Larysa Rydzewska
- Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit at University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Siyuan Guo
- Duke University Medical Center, Duke University, Durham, NC
| | - Peter Godolphin
- Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit at University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Maha Hussain
- Robert H. Lurie Comprehensive Cancer Center, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Michael J. Morris
- Division of Solid Tumor Oncology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY
| | - Gwenaelle Gravis
- Institut Paoli-Calmettes Aix-Mareseille Université, Marseille, France
| | - David P. Dearnaley
- Institute of Cancer Research, The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Takayuki Goto
- Department of Urology, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Nick James
- Institute of Cancer Research, The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Marc E. Buyse
- International Drug Development Institute, Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium
| | - Jayne F. Tierney
- Institute of Cancer Research, The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
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Childs DS, Orme JJ, Ravi P. Delaying Prostate-Specific Antigen Progression in Biochemically Recurrent Prostate Cancer: Is It Clinically Meaningful? J Clin Oncol 2024:JCO2302410. [PMID: 38261976 DOI: 10.1200/jco.23.02410] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2023] [Accepted: 11/09/2023] [Indexed: 01/25/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Jacob J Orme
- Department of Oncology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN
| | - Praful Ravi
- Lank Center for Genitourinary Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA
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