Launching the Healthy Michigan Plan--the first 100 days

Contextual factors influencing the association between the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion and Veteran VA-Medicaid dual enrollment

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate changes in dual enrollment after Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion by VA priority group, (e.g., service connection), sex, and type of state expansion.

STUDY SETTING

Our cohort was all Veterans ages 18-64 enrolled in VA and eligible for benefits due to military service-connection or low income from 2011 to 2016; the unit of analysis was person-year.

STUDY DESIGN

Difference-in-difference and event-study analysis. The outcome was dual VA-Medicaid enrollment for at least 1 month annually. Medicaid expansion, VA priority status, whether a state expanded by a Section 1115 waiver, and sex were independent variables. We controlled for race, ethnicity, age, disease burden, distance to VA facilities, state, and year.

DATA EXTRACTION METHODS

We used data from the VA Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW) regarding age and VA Priority Group to select our cohort of VA-enrolled individuals. We then took the cohort and crossed checked it with Medicaid Analytic Extract (MAX) and T-MSIS Analytic Files (TAF) to determine Medicaid enrollment status.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Service-connected Veterans experienced lower dual-enrollment increases across all sex and state-waiver groups (3.44 percentage points (95% CI: 1.83, 5.05 pp) for women, 3.93 pp (2.98, 4.98) for men, 4.06 pp (2.85, 5.27) for non-waiver states, and 3.00 pp (1.58 to 4.41) for waiver states) than Veterans who enrolled in the VA due to low income (8.19 pp (5.43, 10.95) for women, 9.80 pp (7.06, 12.54) for men, 10.21 pp (7.17, 13.25) for non-waiver states, and 7.39 pp (5.28, 9.50) for waiver states).

CONCLUSIONS

Medicaid expansion is associated with dual enrollment. Dual-enrollment changes are greatest in those enrolled in the VA due to low income, but do not differ by sex or expansion type. Results can help VA identify groups disproportionately likely to have potential care-coordination issues due to usage of multiple health care systems.

Macroeconomic Feedback Effects of Medicaid Expansion: Evidence from Michigan

CONTEXT

Medicaid expansion has costs and benefits for states. The net impact on a state's budget is a central concern for policy makers debating implementing this provision of the Affordable Care Act. How large is the state-level fiscal impact of expanding Medicaid, and how should it be estimated?

METHODS

We use Michigan as a case study for evaluating the state-level fiscal impact of Medicaid expansion, with particular attention to the importance of macroeconomic feedback effects relative to the more straightforward fiscal effects typically estimated by state budget agencies. We combine projections from the state of Michigan's House Fiscal Agency with estimates from a proprietary macroeconomic model to project the state fiscal impact of Michigan's Medicaid expansion through 2021.

FINDINGS

We find that Medicaid expansion in Michigan yields clear fiscal benefits for the state, in the form of savings on other non-Medicaid health programs and increases in revenue from provider taxes and broad-based sales and income taxes through at least 2021. These benefits exceed the state's costs in every year.

CONCLUSIONS

While these results are specific to Michigan's budget and economy, our methods could in principle be applied in any state where policy makers seek rigorous evidence on the fiscal impact of Medicaid expansion.

Learning From Waiver States: Coverage Effects Under Indiana's HIP Medicaid Expansion

In 2015, Indiana expanded eligibility for Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) through a unique waiver, Healthy Indiana Plan 2.0, which requires enrollees to make monthly contributions to an account that is similar to a health savings account to receive full benefits. Enrollees who fail to make these contributions receive less generous benefits if their income is below the federal poverty level, and if it is 100-138 percent of poverty, they are locked out of coverage for six months. We estimated the impact of this expansion on coverage rates and compared the effects to results from other states that expanded Medicaid after 2014. We found that Indiana's coverage gains (relative to pre-ACA uninsurance rates) were smaller than gains in neighboring expansion states, but larger than those in other states. These results imply that while one potential reason for Indiana's lower gains relative to neighboring states was its cost-sharing requirements, expansion led to unquestionable coverage gains in the state.

Geographic Variation in Medicaid Acceptance Across Michigan Primary Care Practices in the Era of the Affordable Care Act

Coverage and access have improved under the Affordable Care Act, yet it is unclear whether recent gains have reached those regions within states that were most in need of improved access to care. We examined geographic variation in Medicaid acceptance among Michigan primary care practices before and after Medicaid expansion in the state, using data from a simulated patient study of primary care practices. We used logistic regression analysis with time indicators to assess regional changes in Medicaid acceptance over time. Geographic regions with lower baseline (<50%) Medicaid acceptance had significant increases in Medicaid acceptance at 4 and 8 months post-expansion, while regions with higher baseline (≥50%) Medicaid acceptance did not experience significant changes in Medicaid acceptance. As state Medicaid expansions continue to be implemented across the country, policy makers should consider the local dynamics of incentives for provider participation in Medicaid.

Primary care appointment availability for new Medicaid patients increased after Medicaid expansion in Michigan

The Affordable Care Act expands health insurance coverage to millions of Americans, but the availability of health care services for the newly insured population remains uncertain. We conducted a simulated patient (or "secret shopper") study to assess primary care appointment availability and wait times for new patients with Medicaid or private insurance before and after implementation of Michigan's Medicaid expansion in 2014. The expansion, which was made possible through a section 1115 waiver, has a unique requirement that new beneficiaries must be seen by a primary care provider within 60-90 days of enrollment. During a period of rapid coverage expansion in Michigan, we found that appointment availability increased 6 percentage points for new Medicaid patients and decreased 2 percentage points for new privately insured patients, compared to availability before the expansion. Wait times remained stable, at 1-2 weeks for both groups. Further research is needed to determine whether access to primary care for newly insured patients will endure over time.