Model reduction for slow-fast stochastic systems with metastable behaviour

Stochastic model corrections for reduced Lotka-Volterra models exhibiting mutual, commensal, competitive, and predatory interactions

We explore model-form error and how to correct it in systems of ordinary differential equations. In particular, we focus on the Lotka-Volterra equations, which are used broadly in fields such as ecology, biology, economics, chemistry, and physics. Accounting for every object and their complex interactions with a complete model often becomes infeasible, thereby requiring reduced models. However, reduced models may omit vital relationships, resulting in discrepancies between reduced model predictions and observations from the true system. In this work, we propose a model correction framework for decreasing such discrepancies. Specifically, we embed a stochastic enrichment operator into the reduced model's system of equations. The enrichment operator is theory-informed, calibrated with observations from the complete model, and extended to extrapolative combinations of parameters and initial conditions. The complete model involves N species, while the reduced and enriched models only track M Collapse

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R Bandy Department of Computer Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA
R Morrison Department of Computer Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA

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Slow-fast oscillatory dynamics and phantom attractors in stochastic modeling of biochemical reactions

A problem of the probabilistic analysis of stochastic phenomena in slow-fast dynamical systems modeling biochemical reactions is considered. We study how multiplicative noise induces systematic shifts of probabilistic distributions and forms "phantom" attractors in nonlinear enzymatic models. The mathematical analysis of the underlying probabilistic mechanism of such stochastic transformations is performed by the "freeze-and-average" method. Our theoretical results are supported by direct numerical simulation.

Analysis of Stochastic Generation and Shifts of Phantom Attractors in a Climate–Vegetation Dynamical Model

A problem of the noise-induced generation and shifts of phantom attractors in nonlinear dynamical systems is considered. On the basis of the model describing interaction of the climate and vegetation we study the probabilistic mechanisms of noise-induced systematic shifts in global temperature both upward (“warming”) and downward (“freezing”). These shifts are associated with changes in the area of Earth covered by vegetation. The mathematical study of these noise-induced phenomena is performed within the framework of the stochastic theory of phantom attractors in slow-fast systems. We give a theoretical description of stochastic generation and shifts of phantom attractors based on the method of freezing a slow variable and averaging a fast one. The probabilistic mechanisms of oppositely directed shifts caused by additive and multiplicative noise are discussed.

Bivalent chromatin as a therapeutic target in cancer: An in silico predictive approach for combining epigenetic drugs

Tumour cell heterogeneity is a major barrier for efficient design of targeted anti-cancer therapies. A diverse distribution of phenotypically distinct tumour-cell subpopulations prior to drug treatment predisposes to non-uniform responses, leading to the elimination of sensitive cancer cells whilst leaving resistant subpopulations unharmed. Few strategies have been proposed for quantifying the variability associated to individual cancer-cell heterogeneity and minimizing its undesirable impact on clinical outcomes. Here, we report a computational approach that allows the rational design of combinatorial therapies involving epigenetic drugs against chromatin modifiers. We have formulated a stochastic model of a bivalent transcription factor that allows us to characterise three different qualitative behaviours, namely: bistable, high- and low-gene expression. Comparison between analytical results and experimental data determined that the so-called bistable and high-gene expression behaviours can be identified with undifferentiated and differentiated cell types, respectively. Since undifferentiated cells with an aberrant self-renewing potential might exhibit a cancer/metastasis-initiating phenotype, we analysed the efficiency of combining epigenetic drugs against the background of heterogeneity within the bistable sub-ensemble. Whereas single-targeted approaches mostly failed to circumvent the therapeutic problems represented by tumour heterogeneity, combinatorial strategies fared much better. Specifically, the more successful combinations were predicted to involve modulators of the histone H3K4 and H3K27 demethylases KDM5 and KDM6A/UTX. Those strategies involving the H3K4 and H3K27 methyltransferases MLL2 and EZH2, however, were predicted to be less effective. Our theoretical framework provides a coherent basis for the development of an in silico platform capable of identifying the epigenetic drugs combinations best-suited to therapeutically manage non-uniform responses of heterogenous cancer cell populations.

Dynamic bistable switches enhance robustness and accuracy of cell cycle transitions

Bistability is a common mechanism to ensure robust and irreversible cell cycle transitions. Whenever biological parameters or external conditions change such that a threshold is crossed, the system abruptly switches between different cell cycle states. Experimental studies have uncovered mechanisms that can make the shape of the bistable response curve change dynamically in time. Here, we show how such a dynamically changing bistable switch can provide a cell with better control over the timing of cell cycle transitions. Moreover, cell cycle oscillations built on bistable switches are more robust when the bistability is modulated in time. Our results are not specific to cell cycle models and may apply to other bistable systems in which the bistable response curve is time-dependent.

Many systems in nature show bistability, which means they can evolve to one of two stable steady states under exactly the same conditions. Which state they evolve to depends on where the system comes from. Such bistability underlies the switching behavior that is essential for cells to progress in the cell division cycle. A quick switch happens when the cell jumps from one steady state to another steady state. Typical of this switching behavior is its robustness and irreversibility. In this paper, we expand this viewpoint of the dynamics of the cell cycle by considering bistable switches which themselves are changing in time. This gives the cell an extra layer of control over transitions both in time and in space, and can make those transitions more robust. Such dynamically changing bistability can appear very naturally. We show this in a model of mitotic entry, in which we include a nuclear and cytoplasmic compartment. The activity of a crucial cell cycle protein follows a bistable switch in each compartment, but the shape of its response is changing in time as proteins are imported into and exported from the nucleus.

Mixture distributions in a stochastic gene expression model with delayed feedback: a WKB approximation approach

Noise in gene expression can be substantively affected by the presence of production delay. Here we consider a mathematical model with bursty production of protein, a one-step production delay (the passage of which activates the protein), and feedback in the frequency of bursts. We specifically focus on examining the steady-state behaviour of the model in the slow-activation (i.e. large-delay) regime. Using a formal asymptotic approach, we derive an autonomous ordinary differential equation for the inactive protein that applies in the slow-activation regime. If the differential equation is monostable, the steady-state distribution of the inactive (active) protein is approximated by a single Gaussian (Poisson) mode located at the globally stable fixed point of the differential equation. If the differential equation is bistable (due to cooperative positive feedback), the steady-state distribution of the inactive (active) protein is approximated by a mixture of Gaussian (Poisson) modes located at the stable fixed points; the weights of the modes are determined from a WKB approximation to the stationary distribution. The asymptotic results are compared to numerical solutions of the chemical master equation.

Stochastic Effects in Autoimmune Dynamics

Among various possible causes of autoimmune disease, an important role is played by infections that can result in a breakdown of immune tolerance, primarily through the mechanism of “molecular mimicry”. In this paper we propose and analyse a stochastic model of immune response to a viral infection and subsequent autoimmunity, with account for the populations of T cells with different activation thresholds, regulatory T cells, and cytokines. We show analytically and numerically how stochasticity can result in sustained oscillations around deterministically stable steady states, and we also investigate stochastic dynamics in the regime of bi-stability. These results provide a possible explanation for experimentally observed variations in the progression of autoimmune disease. Computations of the variance of stochastic fluctuations provide practically important insights into how the size of these fluctuations depends on various biological parameters, and this also gives a headway for comparison with experimental data on variation in the observed numbers of T cells and organ cells affected by infection.

The effects of intrinsic noise on the behaviour of bistable cell regulatory systems under quasi-steady state conditions

We analyse the effect of intrinsic fluctuations on the properties of bistable stochastic systems with time scale separation operating under quasi-steady state conditions. We first formulate a stochastic generalisation of the quasi-steady state approximation based on the semi-classical approximation of the partial differential equation for the generating function associated with the chemical master equation. Such approximation proceeds by optimising an action functional whose associated set of Euler-Lagrange (Hamilton) equations provides the most likely fluctuation path. We show that, under appropriate conditions granting time scale separation, the Hamiltonian can be re-scaled so that the set of Hamilton equations splits up into slow and fast variables, whereby the quasi-steady state approximation can be applied. We analyse two particular examples of systems whose mean-field limit has been shown to exhibit bi-stability: an enzyme-catalysed system of two mutually inhibitory proteins and a gene regulatory circuit with self-activation. Our theory establishes that the number of molecules of the conserved species is order parameters whose variation regulates bistable behaviour in the associated systems beyond the predictions of the mean-field theory. This prediction is fully confirmed by direct numerical simulations using the stochastic simulation algorithm. This result allows us to propose strategies whereby, by varying the number of molecules of the three conserved chemical species, cell properties associated to bistable behaviour (phenotype, cell-cycle status, etc.) can be controlled.