Exactly solvable models of stochastic gene expression

Assessing Markovian and Delay Models for Single-Nucleus RNA Sequencing

The serial nature of reactions involved in the RNA life-cycle motivates the incorporation of delays in models of transcriptional dynamics. The models couple a transcriptional process to a fairly general set of delayed monomolecular reactions with no feedback. We provide numerical strategies for calculating the RNA copy number distributions induced by these models, and solve several systems with splicing, degradation, and catalysis. An analysis of single-cell and single-nucleus RNA sequencing data using these models reveals that the kinetics of nuclear export do not appear to require invocation of a non-Markovian waiting time.

Analysis and design of single-cell experiments to harvest fluctuation information while rejecting measurement noise

Introduction: Despite continued technological improvements, measurement errors always reduce or distort the information that any real experiment can provide to quantify cellular dynamics. This problem is particularly serious for cell signaling studies to quantify heterogeneity in single-cell gene regulation, where important RNA and protein copy numbers are themselves subject to the inherently random fluctuations of biochemical reactions. Until now, it has not been clear how measurement noise should be managed in addition to other experiment design variables (e.g., sampling size, measurement times, or perturbation levels) to ensure that collected data will provide useful insights on signaling or gene expression mechanisms of interest. Methods: We propose a computational framework that takes explicit consideration of measurement errors to analyze single-cell observations, and we derive Fisher Information Matrix (FIM)-based criteria to quantify the information value of distorted experiments. Results and Discussion: We apply this framework to analyze multiple models in the context of simulated and experimental single-cell data for a reporter gene controlled by an HIV promoter. We show that the proposed approach quantitatively predicts how different types of measurement distortions affect the accuracy and precision of model identification, and we demonstrate that the effects of these distortions can be mitigated through explicit consideration during model inference. We conclude that this reformulation of the FIM could be used effectively to design single-cell experiments to optimally harvest fluctuation information while mitigating the effects of image distortion.

A Markovian arrival stream approach to stochastic gene expression in cells

We analyse a generalisation of the stochastic gene expression model studied recently in Fromion et al. (SIAM J Appl Math 73:195-211, 2013) and Robert (Probab Surv 16:277-332, 2019) that keeps track of the production of both mRNA and protein molecules, using techniques from the theory of point processes, as well as ideas from the theory of matrix-analytic methods. Here, both the activity of a gene and the creation of mRNA are modelled with an arbitrary Markovian Arrival Process governed by finitely many phases, and each mRNA molecule during its lifetime gives rise to protein molecules in accordance with a Poisson process. This modification is important, as Markovian Arrival Processes can be used to approximate many types of point processes on the nonnegative real line, meaning this framework allows us to further relax our assumptions on the overall process of transcription.

Modeling bursty transcription and splicing with the chemical master equation

Splicing cascades that alter gene products posttranscriptionally also affect expression dynamics. We study a class of processes and associated distributions that emerge from models of bursty promoters coupled to directed acyclic graphs of splicing. These solutions provide full time-dependent joint distributions for an arbitrary number of species with general noise behaviors and transient phenomena, offering qualitative and quantitative insights about how splicing can regulate expression dynamics. Finally, we derive a set of quantitative constraints on the minimum complexity necessary to reproduce gene coexpression patterns using synchronized burst models. We validate these findings by analyzing long-read sequencing data, where we find evidence of expression patterns largely consistent with these constraints.

Mean-field theory accurately captures the variation of copy number distributions across the mRNA life cycle

We consider a stochastic model where a gene switches between two states, an mRNA transcript is released in the active state, and subsequently it undergoes an arbitrary number of sequential unimolecular steps before being degraded. The reactions effectively describe various stages of the mRNA life cycle such as initiation, elongation, termination, splicing, export, and degradation. We construct a mean-field approach that leads to closed-form steady-state distributions for the number of transcript molecules at each stage of the mRNA life cycle. By comparison with stochastic simulations, we show that the approximation is highly accurate over all the parameter space, independent of the type of expression (constitutive or bursty) and of the shape of the distribution (unimodal, bimodal, and nearly bimodal). The theory predicts that in a population of identical cells, any bimodality is gradually washed away as the mRNA progresses through its life cycle.

Exact distributions for stochastic gene expression models with arbitrary promoter architecture and translational bursting

Gene expression in individual cells is inherently variable and sporadic, leading to cell-to-cell variability in mRNA and protein levels. Recent single-cell and single-molecule experiments indicate that promoter architecture and translational bursting play significant roles in controlling gene expression noise and generating the phenotypic diversity that life exhibits. To quantitatively understand the impact of these factors, it is essential to construct an accurate mathematical description of stochastic gene expression and find the exact analytical results, which is a formidable task. Here, we develop a stochastic model of bursty gene expression, which considers the complex promoter architecture governing the variability in mRNA expression and a general distribution characterizing translational burst. We derive the analytical expression for the corresponding protein steady-state distribution and all moment statistics of protein counts. We show that the total protein noise can be decomposed into three parts: the low-copy noise of protein due to probabilistic individual birth and death events, the noise due to stochastic switching between promoter states, and the noise resulting from translational busting. The theoretical results derived provide quantitative insights into the biochemical mechanisms of stochastic gene expression.

Pathway dynamics can delineate the sources of transcriptional noise in gene expression

Single-cell expression profiling opens up new vistas on cellular processes. Extensive cell-to-cell variability at the transcriptomic and proteomic level has been one of the stand-out observations. Because most experimental analyses are destructive we only have access to snapshot data of cellular states. This loss of temporal information presents significant challenges for inferring dynamics, as well as causes of cell-to-cell variability. In particular, we typically cannot separate dynamic variability from within cells ('intrinsic noise') from variability across the population ('extrinsic noise'). Here, we make this non-identifiability mathematically precise, allowing us to identify new experimental set-ups that can assist in resolving this non-identifiability. We show that multiple generic reporters from the same biochemical pathways (e.g. mRNA and protein) can infer magnitudes of intrinsic and extrinsic transcriptional noise, identifying sources of heterogeneity. Stochastic simulations support our theory, and demonstrate that 'pathway-reporters' compare favourably to the well-known, but often difficult to implement, dual-reporter method.

Noise distorts the epigenetic landscape and shapes cell-fate decisions

The Waddington epigenetic landscape has become an iconic representation of the cellular differentiation process. Recent single-cell transcriptomic data provide new opportunities for quantifying this originally conceptual tool, offering insight into the gene regulatory networks underlying cellular development. While many methods for constructing the landscape have been proposed, by far the most commonly employed approach is based on computing the landscape as the negative logarithm of the steady-state probability distribution. Here, we use simple models to highlight the complexities and limitations that arise when reconstructing the potential landscape in the presence of stochastic fluctuations. We consider how the landscape changes in accordance with different stochastic systems and show that it is the subtle interplay between the deterministic and stochastic components of the system that ultimately shapes the landscape. We further discuss how the presence of noise has important implications for the identifiability of the regulatory dynamics from experimental data. A record of this paper's transparent peer review process is included in the supplemental information.

Altering transcription factor binding reveals comprehensive transcriptional kinetics of a basic gene

Transcription is a vital process activated by transcription factor (TF) binding. The active gene releases a burst of transcripts before turning inactive again. While the basic course of transcription is well understood, it is unclear how binding of a TF affects the frequency, duration and size of a transcriptional burst. We systematically varied the residence time and concentration of a synthetic TF and characterized the transcription of a synthetic reporter gene by combining single molecule imaging, single molecule RNA-FISH, live transcript visualisation and analysis with a novel algorithm, Burst Inference from mRNA Distributions (BIRD). For this well-defined system, we found that TF binding solely affected burst frequency and variations in TF residence time had a stronger influence than variations in concentration. This enabled us to device a model of gene transcription, in which TF binding triggers multiple successive steps before the gene transits to the active state and actual mRNA synthesis is decoupled from TF presence. We quantified all transition times of the TF and the gene, including the TF search time and the delay between TF binding and the onset of transcription. Our quantitative measurements and analysis revealed detailed kinetic insight, which may serve as basis for a bottom-up understanding of gene regulation.

Coordination of gene expression noise with cell size: analytical results for agent-based models of growing cell populations

The chemical master equation and the Gillespie algorithm are widely used to model the reaction kinetics inside living cells. It is thereby assumed that cell growth and division can be modelled through effective dilution reactions and extrinsic noise sources. We here re-examine these paradigms through developing an analytical agent-based framework of growing and dividing cells accompanied by an exact simulation algorithm, which allows us to quantify the dynamics of virtually any intracellular reaction network affected by stochastic cell size control and division noise. We find that the solution of the chemical master equation-including static extrinsic noise-exactly agrees with the agent-based formulation when the network under study exhibits stochastic concentration homeostasis, a novel condition that generalizes concentration homeostasis in deterministic systems to higher order moments and distributions. We illustrate stochastic concentration homeostasis for a range of common gene expression networks. When this condition is not met, we demonstrate by extending the linear noise approximation to agent-based models that the dependence of gene expression noise on cell size can qualitatively deviate from the chemical master equation. Surprisingly, the total noise of the agent-based approach can still be well approximated by extrinsic noise models.

Noise and the molecular processes underlying cell fate decision-making

Cell fate decision-making events involve the interplay of many molecular processes, ranging from signal transduction to genetic regulation, as well as a set of molecular and physiological feedback loops. Each aspect offers a rich field of investigation in its own right, but to understand the whole process, even in simple terms, we need to consider them together. Here we attempt to characterise this process by focussing on the roles of noise during cell fate decisions. We use a range of recent results to develop a view of the sequence of events by which a cell progresses from a pluripotent or multipotent to a differentiated state: chromatin organisation, transcription factor stoichiometry, and cellular signalling all change during this progression, and all shape cellular variability, which becomes maximal at the transition state.

Urn models for stochastic gene expression yield intuitive insights into the probability distributions of single-cell mRNA and protein counts

Fitting the probability mass functions from analytical solutions of stochastic models of gene expression to the single-cell count distributions of mRNA and protein molecules can yield valuable insights into mechanisms underlying gene expression. Solutions of chemical master equations are available for various kinetic schemes but, even for the basic ON-OFF genetic switch, they take complex forms with generating functions given as hypergeometric functions. Interpretation of gene expression dynamics in terms of bursts is not consistent with the complete range of parameters for these functions. Physical insights into the probability mass functions are essential to ensure proper interpretations but are lacking for models considering genetic switches. To fill this gap, we develop urn models for stochastic gene expression. We sample RNA polymerases or ribosomes from a master urn, which represents the cytosol, and assign them to recipient urns of two or more colors, which represent time intervals in which no switching occurs. Colors of the recipient urns represent sub-systems of the promoter states, and the assignments to urns of a specific color represent gene expression. We use elementary principles of discrete probability theory to solve a range of kinetic models without feedback, including the Peccoud-Ycart model, the Shahrezaei-Swain model, and models with an arbitrary number of promoter states. In the last case, we obtain a novel result for the protein distribution. For activated genes, we show that transcriptional lapses, which are events of gene inactivation for short time intervals separated by long active intervals, quantify the transcriptional dynamics better than bursts. We show that the intuition gained from our urn models may also be useful in understanding existing solutions for models with feedback. We contrast our models with urn models for related distributions, discuss a generalization of the Delaporte distribution for single-cell data analysis, and highlight the limitations of our models.

Special function methods for bursty models of transcription

We explore a Markov model used in the analysis of gene expression, involving the bursty production of pre-mRNA, its conversion to mature mRNA, and its consequent degradation. We demonstrate that the integration used to compute the solution of the stochastic system can be approximated by the evaluation of special functions. Furthermore, the form of the special function solution generalizes to a broader class of burst distributions. In light of the broader goal of biophysical parameter inference from transcriptomics data, we apply the method to simulated data, demonstrating effective control of precision and runtime. Finally, we propose and validate a non-Bayesian approach for parameter estimation based on the characteristic function of the target joint distribution of pre-mRNA and mRNA.