Yield gap analysis of rainfed alfalfa in the United States

The United States (US) is the largest alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) producer in the world. More than 44% of the US alfalfa is produced under rainfed conditions, although it requires a relatively high amount of water compared to major field crops. Considering that yield and production of rainfed alfalfa have been relatively stagnant in the country for decades, there is a need to better understand the magnitude of yield loss due to water limitation and how far from yield potential current yields are. In this context, the main objective of this study was to estimate the current yield gap of rainfed alfalfa in the US. We collected 10 year (2009-2018) county-level government-reported yield and weather data from 393 counties within 12 major US rainfed alfalfa producing states and delineated alfalfa growing season using probabilistic approaches based on temperature thresholds for crop development. We then calculated county-level growing season rainfall (GSR), which was plotted against county-level yield to determine attainable yield (Ya) using frontier function analysis, and water-limited potential yield (Yw) using boundary function analysis. Average and potential water use efficiencies (WUE) were estimated, and associated yield gap referring to attainable (YGa) or water-limited yields (YGw) were calculated. Finally, we used conditional inference trees (CIT) to identify major weather-related yield-limiting factors to alfalfa forage yield. The frontier model predicted a mean Ya of 9.6 ± 1.5 Mg ha^-1 and an associated optimum GSR of 670 mm, resulting in a mean YGa of 34%. The boundary function suggested a mean Yw of 15.3 ± 3 Mg ha^-1 at the mean GSR of 672 ± 153 mm, resulting in a mean yield gap of 58%. The potential alfalfa WUE was 30 kg ha^-1 mm^-1 with associated minimum water losses of 24% of mean GSR, which was three times greater than the mean WUE of 10 kg ha^-1 mm^-1. The CIT suggested that GSR and minimum temperature in the season were the main yield-limiting weather variables in rainfed alfalfa production in the US. Our study also revealed that alfalfa was only limited by water availability in 21% of the environments. Thus, future research on management practices to narrow yield gaps at current levels of water supply is necessary.

Modulation of Wheat Yield Components in Response to Management Intensification to Reduce Yield Gaps

Appropriate genotype selection and management can impact wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in dryland environments, but their impact on yield components and their role in yield modulation are not well understood. Our objectives were to evaluate the yield response of commercial winter wheat genotypes to different management practices reflecting a stepwise increase in management intensity (including a reduction in crop density under high input), and to quantify how the different yield components modulate wheat yield. A factorial experiment evaluated six management (M) intensities ["farmer practice" (FP), "enhanced fertility" (EF), "ecological intensification" (EI), "increased foliar protection" (IFP), "water-limited yield" (Yw), and "increased plant productivity" (IPP)] and four winter wheat genotypes (G) in four Kansas environments (E). Average grain yield was 4.9 Mg ha-1 and ranged from 2.0 to 7.4 Mg ha-1, with significant two-way interactions (E × M and E × G). The EF usually maximized yields in dry environments, while EI, which consisted of EF plus one fungicide application, maximized yields in environments with greater water availability. Across all sources of variation, kernels m-2 and aboveground biomass were the strongest modulators of yield as compared to kernel weight and harvest index, while spikes m-2 and kernels spike-1 modulated yields at a similar magnitude. Foliar fungicides improved yield through increased green canopy cover duration and greater radiation intercepted during grain filling. When crop density was reduced from 2.7 to 1.1 million plants per hectare in an otherwise high-input system, plants produced more productive tillers (with genotype-specific response); however, reduced green canopy cover at anthesis and reduced cumulative solar radiation intercepted during grain filling limited wheat yield-although large differences in canopy cover or intercepted radiation were needed to cause modest changes in yield. Treatments more intensive than EI were not warranted as EF or EI maximized yields at all environments, and practices that promote biomass and kernels m-2 are to be targeted for future increases in wheat yield.

Environmental determination of spring wheat yield in a climatic transition zone under global warming

Understanding environmental determination of crop yield plays a critical role in agricultural. management in resource-limited areas. The climatic transition zone was a naturally ideal place to study. the relations between environmental factors and crop yield, due to its large annual variability of climatic factors and high speed of temperature increase under global warming. Our objectives were to identify the most critical environmental factor in determining spring wheat yield and analyze the convergence and divergence of water-yield relations for spring wheat in a typical climatic transition zone (semi-arid area). The study was conducted at two locations, Dingxi and Pengyang in Northwest China, with a long-term experiment (1987-2018) and two short-term irrigation experiments. Meanwhile, data of water use and spring wheat yield was collected from a series of previously published literature in the study area. The highest spring wheat yield was obtained under year pattern with higher soil water content at sowing (SWCS) and lower atmospheric dryness condition (ADC, the difference between reference evapotranspiration and precipitation during spring wheat growing season). SWCS was more important than precipitation during the growing season (PGS) in determining spring wheat yield in the study area. The relations between available water supply, water use, and spring wheat yield were convergence. However, SWCS had an impact on the relationship between yield and PGS and SWCS-yield relation was affected by ADC. We concluded that precipitation in 7 months before sowing was the dominant factor determining spring wheat yield in the climatic transition zone under global warming whereas the impact of high atmospheric evaporative demand resulted from the increasing temperature on crop yields and SWCS-yield relation must be taken into account for the analysis of environmental determination of spring wheat yield.

Partial-film mulch returns the same gains in yield and water use efficiency as full-film mulch with reduced cost and lower pollution: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Plastic film mulch is widely used to improve crop yield and water use efficiency (WUE, yield per unit evapotranspiration) in semi-arid regions. It is commonly applied as partial-film mulch (PM: at least 50% soil cover) or full-film mulch (FM: complete soil cover). The PM has lower economic and environmental cost; hence it would be a superior technology provided it delivers similar gains in yield and WUE in relation to FM.

RESULTS

To solve contradictory results from individual studies, we compared FM and PM in a meta-analysis of 100 studies with 1881 comparisons (685 for wheat; 1196 for maize). Compared with bare ground, FM and PM both increased yield of wheat (20-26%) and maize (37-52%), and WUE of wheat (16-20%) and maize (38-48%), with statistically undistinguishable differences between PM and FM. The increases in crop yield and WUE were stronger at elevation > 1000 m, with annual precipitation<400 mm, and on loess soil, especially for maize.

CONCLUSIONS

We concluded that partial-film mulch could replace full-film mulch to return similar yield and WUE improvement, with reduced cost and environmental pollution. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Exploring the Impacts of Genotype-Management-Environment Interactions on Wheat Productivity, Water Use Efficiency, and Nitrogen Use Efficiency under Rainfed Conditions

Wheat production under rainfed conditions is restrained by water scarcity, elevated temperatures, and lower nutrient uptake due to possible drought. The complex genotype, management, and environment (G × M × E) interactions can obstruct the selection of suitable high yielding wheat cultivars and nitrogen (N) management practices prerequisite to ensure food security and environmental sustainability in arid regions. The agronomic traits, water use efficiency (WUE), and N use efficiencies were evaluated under favorable and unfavorable weather conditions to explore the impacts of G × M × E on wheat growth and productivity. The multi-N rate (0, 70, 140, 210, and 280 kg N ha^-1) field experiment was conducted under two weather conditions (favorable and unfavorable) using three wheat cultivars (AUR-809, CHK-50, and FSD-2008) in the Pothowar region of Pakistan. The experiments were laid out in randomized complete block design (RCBD), with split plot arrangements having cultivars in the main plot and N levels in the subplot. The results revealed a significant decrease in aboveground biomass, grain yield, crop N-uptake, WUE, and N use efficiency (NUE) by 15%, 22%, 21%, 18%, and 8%, respectively in the unfavorable growing season (2014-2015) as compared to favorable growing season (2013-2014) as a consequence of less rainfall and heat stress during the vegetative and reproductive growth phases, respectively. FSD-2008 showed a significantly higher aboveground biomass, grain yield, crop N-uptake, WUE, and NUE as compared to other wheat cultivars in both years. Besides, N₁₄₀ appeared as the most suitable dose for wheat cultivars during the favorable growing season. However, any further increase in N application rates beyond N₁₄₀ showed a non-significant effect on yield and yield components. Conversely, the wheat yield increased significantly up to 74% from N₀ to N₇₀ during the unfavorable growing season, and there was no substantial difference between N₇₀-N₂₈₀. The findings provide opportunities for maximizing yield while avoiding excessive N loss by selecting suitable cultivars and N application rates for rainfed areas of Pothowar Plateau by using meteorological forecasting, amount of summer rainfall, and initial soil moisture content.

Exploiting genotype × management interactions to increase rainfed crop production: a case study from south-eastern Australia

Crop yield must increase to keep pace with growing global demand. Past increases in crop production have rarely been attributable to an individual innovation but have occurred when technologies and practices combine to form improved farming systems. Inevitably this has involved synergy between genotypic and management improvements. We argue that research focused on developing synergistic systems that overcome clear production constraints will accelerate increases in yield. This offers the opportunity to better focus and multiply the impact of discipline-focused research. Here we use the rainfed grain production systems of south-eastern Australia as a case study of how transformational change in water productivity can be achieved with research focused on genotype × management synergies. In this region, rainfall is low and variable and has declined since 1990. Despite this, growers have maintained yields by implementing synergistic systems combining innovations in (i) soil water conservation, (ii) crop diversity, (iii) earlier sowing, and (iv) matching nitrogen fertilizer to water-limited demand. Further increases are emerging from synergies between genetic improvements to deliver flowering time stability, adjusted sowing times, and potential dual-purpose use. Collaboration between agronomists, physiologists, and crop breeders has led to development of commercial genotypes with stable flowering time that are in early phases of testing and adoption.

Genetic and Management Effects on Barley Yield and Phenology in the Mediterranean Basin

Heading time in barley is considered a key developmental stage controlling adaptation to the environment and it affects grain yield; with the combination of agronomy (planting dates) and genetics being some of the determinants of adaptation to environmental conditions in order to escape late frost, heat, and terminal drought stresses. The objectives of this study are (i) to apply a gene-based characterization of 118 barley doubled haploid recombinants for vernalization, photoperiod, and earliness per se; (ii) use such information to quantify the optimal combination of genotype/sowing date that escapes extreme weather events; and (iii) how water and nitrogen management impact on grain yield. The doubled haploid barley genotypes with different allelic combinations for vernalization, photoperiod, and earliness per se were grown in eight locations across the Mediterranean basin. This information was linked with the crop growth model parameters. The photoperiod and earliness per se alleles modify the length of the phenological cycle, and this is more evident in combination with the recessive allele of the vernalization gene VRN-H2. In hot environments such as Algeria, Syria, and Jordan, early sowing dates (October 30 and December15) would be chosen to minimize the risk of exposing barley to heat stress. To maintain higher yields in the Mediterranean basin, barley breeding activities should focus on allelic combinations that have recessive VRN-H2 and EPS2 genes, since the risk of cold stress is much lower than the one represented by heat stress.

Can We Harness "Enviromics" to Accelerate Crop Improvement by Integrating Breeding and Agronomy?

The diverse consequences of genotype-by-environment (GxE) interactions determine trait phenotypes across levels of biological organization for crops, challenging our ambition to predict trait phenotypes from genomic information alone. GxE interactions have many implications for optimizing both genetic gain through plant breeding and crop productivity through on-farm agronomic management. Advances in genomics technologies have provided many suitable predictors for the genotype dimension of GxE interactions. Emerging advances in high-throughput proximal and remote sensor technologies have stimulated the development of "enviromics" as a community of practice, which has the potential to provide suitable predictors for the environment dimension of GxE interactions. Recently, several bespoke examples have emerged demonstrating the nascent potential for enhancing the prediction of yield and other complex trait phenotypes of crop plants through including effects of GxE interactions within prediction models. These encouraging results motivate the development of new prediction methods to accelerate crop improvement. If we can automate methods to identify and harness suitable sets of coordinated genotypic and environmental predictors, this will open new opportunities to upscale and operationalize prediction of the consequences of GxE interactions. This would provide a foundation for accelerating crop improvement through integrating the contributions of both breeding and agronomy. Here we draw on our experience from improvement of maize productivity for the range of water-driven environments across the US corn-belt. We provide perspectives from the maize case study to prioritize promising opportunities to further develop and automate "enviromics" methodologies to accelerate crop improvement through integrated breeding and agronomic approaches for a wider range of crops and environmental targets.

Agroecological Advantages of Early-Sown Winter Wheat in Semi-Arid Environments: A Comparative Case Study From Southern Australia and Pacific Northwest United States

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is the most widely-grown crop in the Mediterranean semi-arid (150-400 mm) cropping zones of both southern Australia and the inland Pacific Northwest (PNW) of the United States of America (United States). Low precipitation, low winter temperatures and heat and drought conditions during late spring and summer limit wheat yields in both regions. Due to rising temperatures, reduced autumn rainfall and increased frost risk in southern Australia since 1990, cropping conditions in these two environments have grown increasingly similar. This presents the opportunity for southern Australian growers to learn from the experiences of their PNW counterparts. Wheat cultivars with an obligate vernalization requirement (winter wheat), are an integral part of semi-arid PNW cropping systems, but in Australia are most frequently grown in cool or cold temperate cropping zones that receive high rainfall (>500 mm p.a.). It has recently been shown that early-sown winter wheat cultivars can increase water-limited potential yield in semi-arid southern Australia, in the face of decreasing autumn rainfall. Despite this research, there has to date been little breeding effort invested in winter wheat for growers in semi-arid southern Australia, and agronomic research into the management of early-sown winter wheat has only occurred in recent years. This paper explores the current and emerging environmental constraints of cropping in semi-arid southern Australia and, using the genotype × management strategies developed over 120 years of winter wheat agronomy in the PNW, highlights the potential advantages early-sown winter wheat offers growers in low-rainfall environments. The increased biomass, stable flowering time and late-summer establishment opportunities offered by winter wheat genotypes ensure they achieve higher yields in the PNW compared to later-sown spring wheat. Traits that make winter wheat advantageous in the PNW may also contribute to increased yield when grown in semi-arid southern Australia. This paper investigates which specific traits present in winter wheat genotypes give them an advantage in semi-arid cropping environments, which management practices best exploit this advantage, and what potential improvements can be made to cultivars for semi-arid southern Australia based on the history of winter wheat crop growth in the semi-arid Pacific Northwest.

Deep Soil Water-Use Determines the Yield Benefit of Long-Cycle Wheat

Wheat production in southern Australia is reliant on autumn (April-May) rainfall to germinate seeds and allow timely establishment. Reliance on autumn rainfall can be removed by sowing earlier than currently practiced and using late summer and early autumn rainfall to establish crops, but this requires slower developing cultivars to match life-cycle to seasonal conditions. While slow-developing wheat cultivars sown early in the sowing window (long-cycle), have in some cases increased yield in comparison to the more commonly grown fast-developing cultivars sown later (short-cycle), the yield response is variable between environments. In irrigated wheat in the sub-tropics, the variable response has been linked to ability to withstand water stress, but the mechanism behind this is unknown. We compared short- vs. long-cycle cultivars × time of sowing combinations over four seasons (2011, 2012, 2015, and 2016) at Temora, NSW, Australia. Two seasons (2011 and 2012) had above average summer fallow (December-March) rain, and two seasons had below average summer fallow rain (2015 and 2016). Initial plant available water in each season was 104, 91, 28, and 27 mm, respectively. Rainfall in the 30 days prior to flowering (approximating the critical period for yield determination) in each year was 8, 6, 14, and 190 mm, respectively. We only observed a yield benefit in long-cycle treatments in 2011 and 2012 seasons where there was (i) soil water stored at depth (ii) little rain during the critical period. The higher yield of long-cycle treatments could be attributed to greater deep soil water extraction (<1.0 m), dry-matter production and grain number. In 2015, there was little rain during the critical period, no water stored at depth and no difference between treatments. In 2016, high in-crop rainfall filled the soil profile, but high rainfall during the critical period removed crop reliance on deep water, and yields were equivalent. A simulation study extended our findings to demonstrate a median yield benefit in long-cycle treatments when the volume of starting soil water was increased. This work reveals environmental conditions that can be used to quantify the frequency of circumstances where long-cycle wheat will provide a yield advantage over current practice.

Invited review: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, agriculture, and food-A case of shifting cultivation and history

Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs), in which agriculture as the production of food for humans via crops and livestock have featured in one form or another. A constructed database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs was analyzed with respect to impacts on yields via crop type, region, and whether adaptation was included. Quantitative data on impacts and adaptation in livestock farming have been extremely scarce in the ARs. The main conclusions from impact and adaptation are that crop yields will decline, but that responses have large statistical variation. Mitigation assessments in the ARs have used both bottom-up and top-down methods but need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security. Relevant policy options have become broader in later ARs and included more of the social and nonproduction aspects of food security. Our overall conclusion is that agriculture and food security, which are two of the most central, critical, and imminent issues in climate change, have been dealt with an unfocussed and inconsistent manner between the IPCC five ARs. This is partly a result of not only agriculture spanning two IPCC working groups but also the very strong focus on projections from computer crop simulation modeling. For the future, we suggest a need to examine interactions between themes such as crop resource use efficiencies and to include all production and nonproduction aspects of food security in future roles for integrated assessment models.

Cool Farm Tool Water: A global on-line tool to assess water use in crop production

The agricultural sector accounts for 70% of all water consumption and poses great pressure on ground water resources. Therefore, evaluating agricultural water consumption is highly important as it allows supply chain actors to identify practices which are associated with unsustainable water use, which risk depleting current water resources and impacting future production. However, these assessments are often not feasible for crop producers as data, models and experiments are required in order to conduct them. This work introduces a new on-line agricultural water use assessment tool that provides the water footprint and irrigation requirements at field scale based on an enhanced FAO56 approach combined with a global climate, crop and soil databases. This has been included in the Cool Farm Tool - an online tool which already provides metrics for greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity impacts and therefore allows for a more holistic assessment of environmental sustainability in farming and agricultural supply chains. The model is tested against field scale and state level water footprint data providing good results. The tool provides a practical, reliable way to assess agricultural water use, and offers a means to engage growers and stakeholders in identifying efficient water management practices.

Closing water productivity gaps to achieve food and water security for a global maize supply

To achieve food and water security, it is as important to close the water productivity (WP) gap (which was defined as the difference between the maximum attainable WP and the currently achieved WP at the field scale) as it is to close yield gaps. However, few studies have provided quantitative estimates of existing WP gaps and constraining factors for global maize production. Using a meta-analysis of 473 published studies covering 31 countries and 5,553 observations (932 site-years), we found the global average WP value for irrigated maize was 18.6 kg ha⁻¹ mm⁻¹. These WPs varied by factors such as seasonal precipitation, irrigation regimes, soil organic matter and soil pH. In current production systems, there exists a huge scope for improvement in maize WP, but the reported field experiments achieved only 20–46% of potential WP across all countries. Considering the future, raising WP to 85% of potential WP by 2050, a 100% increase in maize production could be achieved with 20% less planted area and 21% less water consumption than in 2005. Closing the WP gap may be critical to ensuring food security and achieving sustainable global agriculture.

Water productivity of rainfed maize and wheat: A local to global perspective

Water productivity (WP) is a robust benchmark for crop production in relation to available water supply across spatial scales. Quantifying water-limited potential (WPw) and actual on-farm (WPa) WP to estimate WP gaps is an essential first step to identify the most sensitive factors influencing production capacity with limited water supply. This study combines local weather, soil, and agronomic data, and crop modeling in a spatial framework to determine WPw and WPa at local and regional levels for rainfed cropping systems in 17 (maize) and 18 (wheat) major grain-producing countries representing a wide range of cropping systems, from intensive, high-yield maize in north America and wheat in west Europe to low-input, low-yield maize systems in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. WP was calculated as the quotient of either water-limited yield potential or actual yield, and simulated crop evapotranspiration. Estimated WPw upper limits compared well with maximum WP reported for field-grown crops. However, there was large WPw variation across regions with different climate and soil (CV = 29% for maize and 27% for wheat), which cautions against the use of generic WPw benchmarks and highlights the need for region-specific WPw. Differences in simulated evaporative demand, crop evapotranspiration after flowering, soil evaporation, and intensity of water stress around flowering collectively explained two thirds of the variation in WPw. Average WP gaps were 13 (maize) and 10 (wheat) kg ha-1 mm-1, equivalent to about half of their respective WPw. We found that non-water related factors (i.e., management deficiencies, biotic and abiotic stresses, and their interactions) constrained yield more than water supply in ca. half of the regions. These findings highlight the opportunity to produce more food with same amount of water, provided limiting factors other than water supply can be identified and alleviated with improved management practices. Our study provides a consistent protocol for estimating WP at local to regional scale, which can be used to understand WP gaps and their mitigation.

Climate trends account for stalled wheat yields in Australia since 1990

Global food security requires that grain yields continue to increase to 2050, yet yields have stalled in many developed countries. This disturbing trend has so far been only partially explained. Here, we show that wheat yields in Australia have stalled since 1990 and investigate the extent to which climate trends account for this observation. Based on simulation of 50 sites with quality weather data, that are representative of the agro-ecological zones and of soil types in the grain zone, we show that water-limited yield potential declined by 27% over a 26 year period from 1990 to 2015. We attribute this decline to reduced rainfall and to rising temperatures while the positive effect of elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations prevented a further 4% loss relative to 1990 yields. Closer investigation of three sites revealed the nature of the simulated response of water-limited yield to water availability, water stress and maximum temperatures. At all three sites, maximum temperature hastened time from sowing to flowering and to maturity and reduced grain number per m² and average weight per grain. This 27% climate-driven decline in water-limited yield is not fully expressed in actual national yields. This is due to an unprecedented rate of technology-driven gains closing the gap between actual and water-limited potential yields by 25 kg ha^-1  yr^-1 enabling relative yields to increase from 39% in 1990 to 55% in 2015. It remains to be seen whether technology can continue to maintain current yields, let alone increase them to those required by 2050.

Biological limits on nitrogen use for plant photosynthesis: a quantitative revision comparing cultivated and wild species

The relationship between leaf photosynthesis and nitrogen is a critical production function for ecosystem functioning. Cultivated species have been studied in terms of this relationship, focusing on improving nitrogen (N) use, while wild species have been studied to evaluate leaf evolutionary patterns. A comprehensive comparison of cultivated vs wild species for this relevant function is currently lacking. We hypothesize that cultivated species show increased carbon assimilation per unit leaf N area compared with wild species as associated with artificial selection for resource-acquisition traits. We compiled published data on light-saturated photosynthesis (A_max ) and leaf nitrogen (LN_area ) for cultivated and wild species. The relationship between A_max and LN_area was evaluated using a frontier analysis (90^th percentile) to benchmark the biological limit of nitrogen use for photosynthesis. Carbon assimilation in relation to leaf N was not consistently higher in cultivated species; out of 14 cultivated species, only wheat, rice, maize and sorghum showed higher ability to use N for photosynthesis compared with wild species. Results indicate that cultivated species have not surpassed the biological limit on nitrogen use observed for wild species. Future increases in photosynthesis based on natural variation need to be assisted by bioengineering of key enzymes to increase crop productivity.

The water productivity score (WPS) at global and regional level: Methodology and first results from remote sensing measurements of wheat, rice and maize

Scarce water resources are one of the major constraints to achieve more food production. Food production needs therefore also to be evaluated in terms of water consumption, besides the conventional unit of land. Crop Water Productivity (CWP) is defined as the crop yield per unit of water evaporated. Contrary to crop yield, local benchmark values for CWP do not exist. This paper shows how operational earth observation satellites can measure CWP indirectly on a pixel-by-pixel basis, which provides an opportunity to define local, regional and global benchmark values. In analogy to a grading system for earthquakes (Richter) or wind force (Beaufort), a grading system for CWP is introduced: the Water Productivity Score (WPS). A regional scale WPS and a global version - Global Water Productivity Score (GWPS) - are presented. Crop yield zones are used to reflect local production potential, which reflects also the presence of irrigation systems besides general physio-graphical conditions. The 99^th percentiles of climatic normalized CWP values at global scale are 2.45, 2.3 and 4.9kgm^-3 for wheat, rice and maize respectively. There is significant scope to produce the same - or more - food from less water resources, provided that locally specific best on-farm practices are implemented. At the upstream level, Governments can use (G)WPS to define national water and food policies and use it as a means to report to the Sustainable Development Goal standards. At the downstream level, WPS helps to improve on-farm water management practices by growers, both for rainfed and irrigated crops. While the current paper is based on wheat, rice and maize, the same framework can be expanded to potatoes, sugarbeet, sugarcane, fruit trees, cotton and other crops.

Variation in developmental patterns among elite wheat lines and relationships with yield, yield components and spike fertility

Developmental patterns strongly influence spike fertility and grain number, which are primarily determined during the stem elongation period (i.e. time between terminal spikelet phase and anthesis). It has been proposed that the length of the stem elongation phase may, to an extent, affect grain number; thus it would be beneficial to identify genetic variation for the duration of this phase in elite germplasm. Variation in these developmental patterns was studied using 27 elite wheat lines in four experiments across three growing seasons. The results showed that the length of the stem elongation phase was (i) only slightly related to the period from seedling emergence to terminal spikelet, and (ii) more relevant than it for determining time to anthesis. Thus, phenological phases were largely independent and any particular time to anthesis may be reached with different combinations of component phases. Yield components were largely explained by fruiting efficiency of the elite lines used: the relationships were strongly positive and strongly negative with grain number and with grain weight, respectively. Although fruiting efficiency showed a positive trend with the duration of stem elongation that was not significant, a boundary function (which was highly significant) suggests that the length of this phase may impose an upper threshold for fruiting efficiency and grain number, and that maximum values of fruiting efficiency may require a relatively long stem elongation phase.

Balancing crop yield and water productivity tradeoffs in herbaceous and woody crops

The links between water and crop yield are well known. In agricultural systems, maximum yield and maximum water productivity (WP; yield divided by water use) are not always compatible goals. In water-limited situations, optimal solutions must be reached by finding a compromise between the levels of crop production and WP. The tradeoffs between production and WP are reviewed here and the dominant effects of the environment on WP are examined. Genetic improvement for WP generally has yield tradeoffs, whereas management measures devised to improve WP also enhance yield. It is shown that partial closure of the stomata in response to environmental stimuli has a variable impact on canopy transpiration, depending on the degree of coupling between the canopy and the atmosphere. In contrast to the behaviour of the major herbaceous crops, WP increases in some woody crops in response to water stress, suggesting that biomass and transpiration are not linearly related, and that deficit irrigation should be successful in these species. Avoiding high evaporative demand periods (e.g. through tolerance to low temperatures) is an important option that aims to increase production and WP. A case study is presented for improving sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) yield and WP in temperate environments.

Increasing productivity by matching farming system management and genotype in water-limited environments

Improvements in water productivity and yield arise from interactions between varieties (G) and their management (M). Most G×M interactions considered by breeders and physiologists focus on in-crop management (e.g. sowing time, plant density, N management). However, opportunities exist to capture more water and use it more effectively that involve judicious management of prior crops and fallows (e.g. crop sequence, weed control, residue management). The dry-land wheat production system of southern Australia, augmented by simulation studies, is used to demonstrate the relative impacts and interactions of a range of pre-crop and in-crop management decisions on water productivity. A specific case study reveals how a novel genetic trait, long coleoptiles that enable deeper sowing, can interact with different management options to increase the water-limited yield of wheat from 1.6 t ha(-1) to 4.5 t ha(-1), reflecting the experience of leading growers. Understanding such interactions will be necessary to capture benefits from new varieties within the farming systems of the future.

Different mechanisms of adaptation to cyclic water stress in two South Australian bread wheat cultivars

In the South Australian wheat belt, cyclic drought is a frequent event represented by intermittent periods of rainfall which can occur around anthesis and post-anthesis in wheat. Three South Australian bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars, Excalibur, Kukri, and RAC875, were evaluated in one greenhouse and two growth-room experiments. In the first growth-room experiment, where plants were subjected to severe cyclic water-limiting conditions, RAC875 and Excalibur (drought-tolerant) showed significantly higher grain yield under cyclic water availability compared to Kukri (drought-susceptible), producing 44% and 18% more grain compared to Kukri, respectively. In the second growth-room experiment, where plants were subjected to a milder drought stress, the differences between cultivars were less pronounced, with only RAC875 showing significantly higher grain yield under the cyclic water treatment. Grain number per spike and the percentage of aborted tillers were the major components that affected yield under cyclic water stress. Excalibur and RAC875 adopted different morpho-physiological traits and mechanisms to reduce water stress. Excalibur was most responsive to cyclic water availability and showed the highest level of osmotic adjustment (OA), high stomatal conductance, lowest ABA content, and rapid recovery from stress under cyclic water stress. RAC875 was more conservative and restrained, with moderate OA, high leaf waxiness, high chlorophyll content, and slower recovery from stress. Within this germplasm, the capacity for osmotic adjustment was the main physiological attribute associated with tolerance under cyclic water stress which enabled plants to recover from water deficit.

High crop productivity with high water use in winter and summer on the Liverpool Plains, eastern Australia

We report exceptional productivity and associated water-use efficiency across seasons for commercial crops of rainfed spring wheat and grain sorghum growing on stored soil water in Vertosols on the Liverpool Plains, central-eastern Australia. Agreement between the independently measured terms of evapotranspiration (ET) and the soil water balance (in-crop rainfall + δsoil water) was achieved within acceptable uncertainty across almost all measurement intervals, to provide a reliable dataset for the analysis of growth and water-use relationships without the confounding influence of water outflow either overland or within the soil. Post-anthesis intrinsic transpiration efficiency (kc ) values of 4.7 and 7.2 Pa for wheat and sorghum, respectively, and grain yields of 8 and 7 t/ha from ET of 450 and 442 mm (1.8 and 1.6 g/m2.mm), clearly demonstrate the levels of productivity and water-use efficiency possible for well-managed crops within an intensive and productive response cropping sequence. The Vertosols in which the crops were grown enabled rapid and apparently unconstrained delivery of significant quantities of subsoil water (34% and 51% of total available) after anthesis, which enabled a doubling of pre-anthesis standing biomass and harvest indices of almost 50%. Durum wheat planted into only 0.30 m of moist soil and enduring lower than average seasonal rainfall, yielded less biomass and grain (2.3 t/ha) with lower water-use efficiency (0.95 g/m2.mm) but larger transpiration efficiency, probably due to reduced stomatal conductance. We argue that crop planting in response to stored soil water and management for high water-use efficiency to achieve high levels of average productivity of crop sequences over time can have a significant effect on both increased productivity and enhanced hydrological stability across alluvial landscapes.

The limit to wheat water-use efficiency in eastern Australia. I. Gradients in the radiation environment and atmospheric demand

In the wheatbelt of eastern Australia, rainfall shifts from winter dominated in the south (South Australia, Victoria) to summer dominated in the north (northern New South Wales, southern Queensland). The seasonality of rainfall, together with frost risk, drives the choice of cultivar and sowing date, resulting in a flowering time between October in the south and August in the north. In eastern Australia, crops are therefore exposed to contrasting climatic conditions during the critical period around flowering, which may affect yield potential, and the efficiency in the use of water (WUE) and radiation (RUE). In this work we analysed empirical and simulated data, to identify key climatic drivers of potential water- and radiation-use efficiency, derive a simple climatic index of environmental potentiality, and provide an example of how a simple climatic index could be used to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in resource-use efficiency and potential yield in eastern Australia. Around anthesis, from Horsham to Emerald, median vapour pressure deficit (VPD) increased from 0.92 to 1.28 kPa, average temperature increased from 12.9 to 15.2°C, and the fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) decreased from 0.61 to 0.41. These spatial gradients in climatic drivers accounted for significant gradients in modelled efficiencies: median transpiration WUE (WUEB/T) increased southwards at a rate of 2.6% per degree latitude and median RUE increased southwards at a rate of 1.1% per degree latitude. Modelled and empirical data confirmed previously established relationships between WUEB/T and VPD, and between RUE and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and FDR. Our analysis also revealed a non-causal inverse relationship between VPD and radiation-use efficiency, and a previously unnoticed causal positive relationship between FDR and water-use efficiency. Grain yield (range 1–7 t/ha) measured in field experiments across South Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland (n = 55) was unrelated to the photothermal quotient (Pq = PAR/T) around anthesis, but was significantly associated (r2 = 0.41, P < 0.0001) with newly developed climatic index: a normalised photothermal quotient (NPq = Pq . FDR/VPD). This highlights the importance of diffuse radiation and vapour pressure deficit as sources of variation in yield in eastern Australia. Specific experiments designed to uncouple VPD and FDR and more mechanistic crop models might be required to further disentangle the relationships between efficiencies and climate drivers.

The limit to wheat water-use efficiency in eastern Australia. II. Influence of rainfall patterns

We investigated the influence of rainfall patterns on the water-use efficiency of wheat in a transect between Horsham (36°S) and Emerald (23°S) in eastern Australia. Water-use efficiency was defined in terms of biomass and transpiration, WUEB/T, and grain yield and evapotranspiration, WUEY/ET. Our working hypothesis is that latitudinal trends in WUEY/ET of water-limited crops are the complex result of southward increasing WUEB/T and soil evaporation, and season-dependent trends in harvest index. Our approach included: (a) analysis of long-term records to establish latitudinal gradients of amount, seasonality, and size-structure of rainfall; and (b) modelling wheat development, growth, yield, water budget components, and derived variables including WUEB/T and WUEY/ET. Annual median rainfall declined from around 600 mm in northern locations to 380 mm in the south. Median seasonal rain (from sowing to harvest) doubled between Emerald and Horsham, whereas median off-season rainfall (harvest to sowing) ranged from 460 mm at Emerald to 156 mm at Horsham. The contribution of small events (≤ 5 mm) to seasonal rainfall was negligible at Emerald (median 15 mm) and substantial at Horsham (105 mm). Power law coefficients (τ), i.e. the slopes of the regression between size and number of events in a log-log scale, captured the latitudinal gradient characterised by an increasing dominance of small events from north to south during the growing season. Median modelled WUEB/T increased from 46 kg/ha.mm at Emerald to 73 kg/ha.mm at Horsham, in response to decreasing atmospheric demand. Median modelled soil evaporation during the growing season increased from 70 mm at Emerald to 172 mm at Horsham. This was explained by the size-structure of rainfall characterised with parameter τ, rather than by the total amount of rainfall. Median modelled harvest index ranged from 0.25 to 0.34 across locations, and had a season-dependent latitudinal pattern, i.e. it was greater in northern locations in dry seasons in association with wetter soil profiles at sowing. There was a season-dependent latitudinal pattern in modelled WUEY/ET. In drier seasons, high soil evaporation driven by a very strong dominance of small events, and lower harvest index override the putative advantage of low atmospheric demand and associated higher WUEB/T in southern locations, hence the significant southwards decrease in WUEY/ET. In wetter seasons, when large events contribute a significant proportion of seasonal rain, higher WUEB/T in southern locations may translate into high WUEY/ET. Linear boundary functions (French-Schultz type models) accounting for latitudinal gradients in its parameters, slope, and x-intercept, were fitted to scatter-plots of modelled yield v. evapotranspiration. The x-intercept of the model is re-interpreted in terms of rainfall size structure, and the slope or efficiency multiplier is described in terms of the radiation, temperature, and air humidity properties of the environment. Implications for crop management and breeding are discussed.