Predicting Carcass Weight of Grass-Fed Beef Cattle before Slaughter Using Statistical Modelling

Gaining insights into the utilization of farm-level data for decision-making within the beef industry is vital for improving production and profitability. In this study, we present a statistical model to predict the carcass weight (CW) of grass-fed beef cattle at different stages before slaughter using historical cattle data. Models were developed using two approaches: boosted regression trees and multiple linear regression. A sample of 2995 grass-fed beef cattle from 3 major properties in Northern Australia was used in the modeling. Four timespans prior to the slaughter, i.e., 1 month, 3 months, 9-10 months, and at weaning, were considered in the predictive modelling. Seven predictors, i.e., weaning weight, weight gain since weaning to each stage before slaughter, time since weaning to each stage before slaughter, breed, sex, weaning season (wet and dry), and property, were used as the potential predictors of the CW. To assess the predictive performance in each scenario, a test set which was not used to train the models was utilized. The results showed that the CW of the cattle was strongly associated with the animal's body weight at each stage before slaughter. The results showed that the CW can be predicted with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% (~12-16 kg) at three months before slaughter. The predictive error increased gradually when moving away from the slaughter date, e.g., the prediction error at weaning was ~8% (~20-25 kg). The overall predictive performances of the two statistical approaches was approximately similar, and neither of the models substantially outperformed each other. Predicting the CW in advance of slaughter may allow farmers to adequately prepare for forthcoming needs at the farm level, such as changing husbandry practices, control inventory, and estimate price return, thus allowing them to maximize the profitability of the industry.

High frequency of delayed milk delivery to neonates in tropical beef herds

Beef-calf mortality rates across tropical and subtropical Australia are high, with sub-optimal nutrition in pregnant cows being the primary risk. The nutritional deficiencies associated with calf mortality are the same as those associated with reduced milk yields. Although the highest mortality risk occurs during neonatal life, the role of inadequate milk delivery to beef neonates is not well established. This study investigated the frequency of low milk delivery in tropically adapted neonatal calves and the time for their dams to initiate full lactation in five management groups of Brahman and Droughtmaster calving cows in the dry tropics of northern Queensland, Australia. Change in calf weight in the days following birth was the primary measure of milk uptake. Plasma globulin concentration was used to indicate colostrum uptake. Across management groups, data were available on 250 calves for regression analysis of average daily gain vs. globulin and on 78 for plotting calf growth profiles. Calves had one of two growth profiles, either with immediate high growth from birth (day one) or with high growth delayed until day three. The frequency of delayed growth calves (with inadequate milk intake to gain at least 0.5 kg by day three after birth) was on average 30% across management groups, with management groups ranging 25%-50%. The frequency of calves growing ≤0.2 kg/day to day three was 15%-37%, depending on management group. The frequency of calves growing ≤0.2 kg/day to day five was 7%-20%, depending on management group. Calf globulin explained only 25% of the variation in calf average daily gain. Our study shows that a third of tropically adapted calves may experience a three-day delay to initiation of full lactation by their dams. Although study conditions were relatively benign, any additional risks with milk delivery, such as those that occur widely in tropical and subtropical northern Australia, would place such calves at risk of dehydration and mortality. Calf plasma globulin should not be used as a standalone measure of adequacy of neonatal milk delivery, especially when comparing across herds. This study demonstrates a fundamental problem of high frequency in northern Australia. The underlying risks for delayed milk delivery should be considered in the quest for practical solutions to reduce tropically adapted beef-calf mortalities.

Bio-economic evaluation of grazing-management options for beef cattle enterprises during drought episodes in semiarid grasslands of northern Australia

Context The large inter-annual and decadal rainfall variability that occurs in northern Australian rangelands poses major challenges for the profitable and sustainable management of grazing businesses. Aims An integrated bio-economic modelling framework (GRASP integrated with Breedcow and Dynama (BCD)) was developed to assess the effect of alternative grazing-management options on the profitability and sustainability of a beef cattle enterprise in the central-western Mitchell grasslands of Queensland over a multi-decadal time period. Methods Four grazing-management strategies were simulated over a 36-year period (1982–2017) in the GRASP pasture-growth model, using historic climate records for Longreach in central-western Queensland. Simulated annual stocking rates and steer liveweight-gain predictions from GRASP were integrated with published functions for mortality and conception rates in beef-breeding cattle in northern Australia, and then used to develop dynamic BCD cattle-herd models and discounted cash-flow budgets over the last 30 years of the period (1988–2017), following a 6-year model-equilibration period. The grazing-management strategies differed in the extent to which stocking rates were adjusted each year, from a common starting point in Year 1, in response to changes in the amount of forage available at the end of the summer growing season (May). They ranged from a low flexibility of ‘Safe stocking rate’ (SSR) and ‘Retain core herd’ (RCH) strategies, to a moderate flexibility of ‘Drought responsive’ (DR), to a ‘Fully flexible’ (FF) strategy. The RCH strategy included the following two herd-management scenarios: (1) ‘Retain herd structure’, where a mix of cattle were sold in response to low pasture availability, and (2) ‘Retain core breeders’, where steers were sold before reducing the breeder herd. Herd-management scenarios within the DR and FF strategies examined five and four options respectively, to rebuild cattle numbers and utilise available pasture following herd reductions made in response to drought. Key results Property-level investment returns expressed as the internal rate of return (IRR) were poor for SSR (–0.09%) and the three other strategies when the herd was rebuilt following drought through natural increase alone (RCH, –0.27%; DR, –1.57%; and FF, –4.44%). However, positive IRR were achieved when the DR herd was rebuilt through purchasing a mix of cattle (1.70%), purchasing pregnant cows (1.45%), trading steers (0.50%) or accepting cattle on agistment (0.19%). A positive IRR of 0.70% was also achieved for the FF property when purchasing a mix of cattle to rebuild numbers. However, negative returns were obtained when either trading steers (–2.60%) or agistment (–0.11%) scenarios were applied to the FF property. Strategies that were either inflexible or highly flexible increased the risk of financial losses and business failure. Property-level pasture condition (expressed as the percentage of perennial grasses; %P) was initially 69%P and was maintained under the DR strategy (68%P; average of final 5 years). The SSR strategy increased pasture condition by 25% to 86%P, while the RCH and FF strategies decreased pasture condition by 29% (49%P) and 65% (24%P) respectively. Conclusions In a highly variable and unpredictable climate, managing stocking rates with a moderate degree of flexibility in response to pasture availability (DR) was the most profitable approach and also maintained pasture condition. However, it was essential to economic viability that the property was re-stocked as soon as possible, in line with pasture availability, once good seasonal conditions returned. Implications This bio-economic modelling analysis refines current grazing-management recommendations by providing insights into both the economic and sustainability consequences of stocking-rate flexibility in response to fluctuating pasture supply. Caution should be exercised in recommending either overly conservative safe stocking strategies that are inflexible, or overly flexible stocking strategies, due to the increased risk of very poor outcomes.

Growth of Brahman cross heifers to 2 years of age in the dry tropics

Growth of 1368 Brahman cross heifers from 6 year cohorts was monitored over the 2 years post-weaning in Australia’s northern forest, a low-animal-growth dry tropical environment. Heifers weighing 47–266 kg at weaning were managed in groups weighing <100 kg, 100–149 kg, 150–199 kg, and >199 kg during the post-weaning dry season. Weaner heifers were allocated to receive 300 g/day of a protein meal during the dry season or to basic nutritional management to sustain health. Heifers in three cohorts were allocated to first mating at 1 or 2 years of age, in four cohorts to vaccination against androstenedione, and in a small proportion of two cohorts to ovariectomy post-weaning. Growth was highly variable between seasons and years; average cohort liveweight by the start of 2-year-old mating was 256–319 kg. Heifer groups not receiving protein supplementation gained –16 to 21 kg (2 kg average) during 6-month dry seasons, and 49–131 kg (101 kg average) during wet seasons to reach an average of two-thirds of mature liveweight (445 kg) and 95% of mature hip height (1350 mm) by the start of mating at 2 years. Average body condition score (1–5) fluctuated by 1–2 units between seasons. Hip height gain continued, irrespective of season, commencing at ~0.60 mm/day at 6 months of age, and decelerating by ~0.00075 mm/day through to 2.5 years of age. Standard errors of predicted means across analyses were ~0.015 for average daily weight gains, 0.4 mm for average monthly height gain and 0.06 score units for average seasonal body condition score change. Post-weaning dry-season supplementation increased gains in liveweight, height and body condition score by an average of 0.1 kg/day, 0.1 mm/day and 0.5 units, respectively, during the supplementation period. Periods of poor nutrition or high nutritional demand secondary to reproduction suppressed daily gains in liveweight and hip height, at which times body condition score was also reduced. Subsequent to this, partial to full compensation occurred for all measures. Ovariectomy had negative effects on growth. Androstenedione vaccination had no effect on growth. The main conclusion is that heifer growth in Australia’s dry tropical northern forest region is highly variable between seasons and years, thus limiting significant proportions of some cohorts from reaching target weights for mating at 2 years of age, even after compensatory growth.

Climate Adaptation of Tropical Cattle

There is sustained growth in the number of tropical cattle, which represent more than half of all cattle worldwide. By and large, most research in tropical areas is still focused on breeds of cattle, their particular advantages or disadvantages in tropical areas, and the tropical forages or feeds that could be usefully fed to them. A consistent issue for adaptation to climate is the heat of tropical environments. Changing the external characteristics of the animal, such as color and coat characteristics, is one way to adapt, and there are several major genes for these traits. However, further improvement in heat tolerance and other adaptation traits will need to use the entire genome and all physical and physiological systems. Apart from the response to heat, climate forcing through methane emission identifies dry season weight loss as an important if somewhat neglected trait in climate adaptation of cattle. The use of genome-estimated breeding values in tropical areas is in its infancy and will be difficult to implement, but will be essential for rapid, coordinated genetic improvement. The difficulty of implementation cannot be exaggerated and may require major improvements in methodology.

Prediction of mortality and conception rates of beef breeding cattle in northern Australia

In current simulation packages for the management of extensive beef-cattle enterprises, the relationships for the key biological rates (namely conception and mortality) are quite rudimentary. To better estimate these relationships, cohort-level data covering 17 100 cow-years from six sites across northern Australia were collated and analysed. Further validation data, from 7200 cow-years, were then used to test these relationships. Analytical problems included incomplete and non-standardised data, considerable levels of correlation among the ‘independent’ variables, and the close similarity of alternate possible models. In addition to formal statistical analyses of these data, the theoretical equations for predicting mortality and conception rates in the current simulation models were reviewed, and then reparameterised and recalibrated where appropriate. The final models explained up to 80% of the variation in the data. These are now proposed as more accurate and useful models to be used in the prediction of biological rates in simulation studies for northern Australia.

Bull selection and use in northern Australia. 5. Social behaviour and management

Calf output of bulls was derived using DNA typing for paternity following multiple-sire mating at two sites in northern Australia. At Swan's Lagoon Beef Cattle Research Station, 12, mixed-age, Brahman cross bulls were continuously mated with an average of 325 females in a 22km2 open-savannah paddock. Water was available in two troughs. Behaviour of the bulls and location of cows were monitored. At Kamilaroi Station, 2- to 2.5-year-old Brahman bulls were introduced to the study. Twenty-four bulls (HIGH%) were mated in an 84km2 paddock for 3.5 months to 411 heifers in 1995/1995 and for 4.5 months to 350 heifers and 320 first-lactation cows in 1995/1996. A second group of 10 bulls (LOW%) selected on reproductive soundness was mated concurrently in a neighbouring 60km2 paddock to 411 heifers in 1995/1995 and to 350 heifers and 298 first-lactation cows in 1995/1996. In each paddock in both years, 300-350 females were expected to cycle during mating. Both paddocks were flat and semi-forested and water was available only at troughs. At both sites, detailed physical and reproductive examinations of all bulls were conducted prior to and post-mating.Calf output of individual bulls was highly variable but repeatable (r=0.6-0.7) between years. Up to 90% of the 270-380 calves resulting from each mating were sired by between 6 and 8 bulls. Reducing from 3.7 to 2.8% bulls:females at Swan's Lagoon did not delay conceptions. At Kamilaroi, reproductively sound bulls achieved an estimated 5-6 conceptions per week over the peak mating period when sufficient cycling females were available. Differences in pregnancy rates between paddocks appeared due to differences in nutrition and it appeared that conceptions were not delayed with LOW% vs. HIGH% bulls. Variance between bulls in calf output was substantially lower when fewer bulls were used. Bull attrition occurred each year in the HIGH% paddock but not in the LOW% paddock. Calf output was unrelated to body condition of bulls. Seven of the 12 bulls in one 2-year period at Swan's Lagoon appeared to restrict their movement range to 250-750ha for 90-100% of the time. These ranges expanded when the bull:female ratio was reduced. Only one of the nine bulls remained within a 500ha home range for at least 85% of the time during peak mating in 1998 at 2.8% bulls:females. In previous years with 3.7% bulls:females, up to eight of the 12 bulls had remained within a 500ha home range for 85% of the time. Bull behaviour related to high calf output included restricted movement range, grazing with females at a majority of observations, stable social behaviour, and social dominance. These observations demonstrate that multiple-sire mating of reproductively sound Brahman and Brahman-derived bulls at 2.5% of cycling females will not jeopardise herd fertility under extensive management in northern Australia.

Heritability and factors affecting growth traits and age at first calving of zebu beef heifers in south-eastern Mexico

Information for this study was obtained from a commercial beef enterprise located in the subhumid tropics of Yucatan, Mexico. Data from 664 females of different zebu breeds born from 1972 to 1983 were considered for analyses. Weaning and 18-month weights were adjusted to 240 (W240) and to 550 (W550) days of age, respectively. The statistical model included the fixed effects of years of birth, season of birth, age of dam at calving, breed of heifer and the random effect of sire within breed. Arithmetic mean +/- standard deviations were 32.1 +/- 3.6 kg, 208.3 +/- 29.1 kg, 678.1 +/- 94.6 g, 308.7 +/- 29.7 kg, 342.3 +/- 89.8 g and 1,060.2 +/- 118.7 days for birth weight (BW), W240, average preweaning daily gain (ADG), W550 postweaning daily gain (PDG) and age at first calving (AFC), respectively. Year and season of birth had significant (P < 0.05) effects on W240, ADG, W550, PDG and AFC. Parity number was significant (P < 0.05) for BW, W240, ADG and AFC. Breed differences were significant (P < 0.01) for all traits, except BW. Guzerat heifers were heavier at weaning and W550 than heifers from the other breeds. Guzerat heifers first calved at an average age of 995 days; Brahman and commercial zebu heifers calved about 50 to 60 days later and the Indubrazil and Gyr heifers about 2 months later still. The heritability estimates were 0.24 +/- 0.13 for BW, 0.26 +/- 0.14 for W240, 0.29 +/- 0.14 for ADG, 0.43 +/- 0.17 for W550, 0.56 +/- 0.20 for PDG and 0.46 +/- 0.15 for AFC.

An evaluation of visual assessment for fertility in Brahman cross cows using the Bonsma technique

A technique of visual assessment of cattle for reproductive efficiency, described by Professor Jan Bonsma of South Africa, was evaluated in two well-managed large herds of 1/2 to 3/4 Brahman cross heifers and cows located in the dry tropics of north Australia. Individual lifetime performance records were available for all animals. Experienced cattlemen carried out the assessments. Higher scores were previously claimed to indicate higher fertility. The technique had high repeatability (0.7) and was quickly learned by the assessors. Scores from visual assessment had no useful predictive value for either heifer or cow fertility or for growth rate up to 27 mo of age, although 2.5-yr-old heifers which were scored as subfertile matured into 4% smaller cows than heifers which had scored higher. Scores decreased as fatness increased (P < 0.05). Some biases in visual assessment occurred. Lactating cows scored higher than nonlactating cows (P < 0.05), independently of their reproductive record. Red and grey cows scored higher than brindle and black/brown cows (P < 0.05). Bonsma scores were not influenced by the percentage of Brahman in the genotype. Significant, but apparently random, age effects on scores also occurred. It was concluded that the visual assessment criteria described by Bonsma were of no practical value in assessing potential productivity of breeding animals in well-managed Brahman cross cattle in the dry tropics.