Projected changes in African easterly wave intensity and track in response to greenhouse forcing

Late 21st Century Projected Changes in the Relationship between Precipitation, African Easterly Jet, and African Easterly Waves

The present study utilizes three high-resolution simulations from the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) to examine the late 21st century changes (2080–2099) in the West African Monsoon (WAM) features. A set of three Earth System Models are utilized to provide initial and lateral boundary conditions to the RegCM4 experiments. Our analysis focuses on seasonal mean changes in WAM large-scale dynamical features, along with their connections with the summer monsoon precipitation. In the historical period, the simulation ensemble means mimic reasonably well the intensity and spatial distribution of the WAM rainfall as well as the WAM circulation patterns at different scales. The future projection of the WAM climate exhibits warming over the whole West Africa leading to precipitation reduction over the Sahel region, and a slight increase over some areas of the Guinea Coast. The position of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) is shifted southward and the African Easterly Waves (AEWs) activities are reduced, which affect in turn the WAM rainbelt characteristics in terms of position and strength. Overall the changes in simulated AEJ and AEWs contribute substantially to reduce the seasonal summer mean precipitation in West Africa by the late 21st century, with prevailing negative changes in the Savanna-Sahel region. To further explore the robustness of the relationships revealed in this paper, future studies using different high-resolution regional climate models with large ensemble are recommended.

Classification of Intense Rainfall Days in Southern West Africa and Associated Atmospheric Circulation

Daily rainfall in southern West Africa (4–8° N, 7° W–3° E) is analyzed with the aim of documenting the intense rainfall events which occur in coastal Ivory Coast, Ghana, Togo, and Benin. The daily 99th percentile (P99) shows that the coastline experiences higher intensity rainfall than inland areas. Using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall data for 1998–2014, a novel way of classifying the intense events is proposed. We consider their space-time structure over a window of 8° latitude-longitude and five days centered on the event. A total 39,680 events (62 at each location) are classified into three major types, mainly found over the oceanic regions south of 5° N, the Bight of Benin, and the inland regions respectively. These types display quite distinct rainfall patterns, propagation features, and seasonal occurrence. Three inland subtypes are also defined. The atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with each type are examined from ERA-interim reanalysis data. Intense rainfall events over the continent are mainly a result of westward propagating disturbances. Over the Gulf of Guinea, many intense events occur as a combination of atmospheric disturbances propagating westward (mid-tropospheric easterly waves or cyclonic vortices) and eastward (lower tropospheric zonal wind and moisture anomalies hypothesized to reflect Kelvin waves). Along the coast, there is a mixture of different types of rainfall events, often associated with interacting eastward- and westward-moving disturbances, which complicates the monitoring of heavy precipitation.

Investigating West African Monsoon Features in Warm Years Using the Regional Climate Model RegCM4

This study investigates the changes in West African monsoon features during warm years using the Regional Climate Model version 4.5 (RegCM4.5). The analysis uses 30 years of datasets of rainfall, surface temperature and wind parameters (from 1980 to 2009). We performed a simulation at a spatial resolution of 50 km with the RegCM4.5 model driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis. The rainfall amount is weaker over the Sahel (western and central) and the Guinea region for the warmest years compared to the coldest ones. The analysis of heat fluxes show that the sensible (latent) heat flux is stronger (weaker) during the warmest (coldest) years. When considering the rainfall events, there is a decrease of the number of rainy days over the Guinea Coast (in the South of Cote d’Ivoire, of Ghana and of Benin) and the western and eastern Sahel during warm years. The maximum length of consecutive wet days decreases over the western and eastern Sahel, while the consecutive dry days increase mainly over the Sahel band during the warm years. The percentage of very warm days and warm nights increase mainly over the Sahel domain and the Guinea region. The model also simulates an increase of the warm spell duration index in the whole Sahel domain and over the Guinea Coast in warm years. The analysis of the wind dynamic exhibits during warm years a weakening of the monsoon flow in the lower levels, a strengthening in the magnitude of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) in the mid-troposphere and a slight increase of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) in the upper levels of the atmosphere during warm years.

Potential Impacts of Land Cover Change on the Interannual Variability of Rainfall and Surface Temperature over West Africa

We used the Abdu Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 4.5 (RegCM4.5), to investigate the potential impacts of land cover change of the Sahel–Sahara interface on the West African climate over an interannual timescale from 1990 to 2009. A simulation at 50 km grid spacing is performed with the standard version of the RegCM4.5 model (control run), followed by three vegetation change experiments at the Sahel-Sahara interface (15° N and 20° N): forest, tall grass, and short grass savanna. The impacts of land cover change are assessed by analyzing the difference between the altered runs and the control one in different sub-domains (western Sahel, central Sahel, eastern Sahel, and Guinea). Results show that the presence of forest, tall grass, and short grass savanna at the Sahel–Sahara interface tends to decrease the mean summer surface temperature in the whole domain. Nevertheless, this decrease is more pronounced over the Central Sahel when considering the forest experiment. This temperature decrease is associated with a weakening (strengthening) of the sensible (latent) heat flux in the whole domain. An analysis of the radiation field is performed to better explain the changes noted in the latent heat flux, the sensible heat flux, and the surface temperature. When considering the rainfall signal, the analysis shows that the afforestation options tend to alter the precipitation in the considered sub-domains substantially by increasing it in the whole Sahel region, with strong interannual variability. This rainfall increase is associated with an increase of the atmospheric moisture. Finally, we investigated the impacts of the afforestation options on some features of the rainfall events, and on the atmospheric dynamics during wet and dry years. All afforestation options tend to increase the frequency of the number of rainy days in regions located south of 18° N during both periods. Nevertheless, this increase is stronger over the Central and Eastern Sahel during wet years in the forest case. All afforestation experiments induce an increase (decrease) of the low-levels monsoon flux in the Eastern Sahel (western Sahel) during both periods. At the mid-levels, the three afforestation options tend to move northward and to decrease the intensity of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) south of 13° N during wet and dry years.The intensity of the AEJ is weaker during the wet period. The vegetation change experiments also affect the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), especially during wet years, by increasing its intensity over the southern Sahel. The analysis of the activity of African Easterly Waves (AEWs) patterns exhibits a decrease of the intensity of these disturbances over the Sahel during both periods. This may be due to the weakening of the meridional temperature contrast between the continent and the Gulf of Guinea due to the Sahel–Sahara surface temperature cooling induced by the afforestation. In summary, this study shows that during both periods, the increase of the atmospheric moisture due to the afforestation is associated with favorable AEJ/TEJ configurations (weaker and northward position of the AEJ; stronger TEJ) which in turn may create a stronger convection and then, an increase in the Sahel rainfall. This Sahel rainfall increase is associated with a strengthening of the intense and heavy rainfall events which may impact diversely local populations.

The impact of water crises and climate changes on the transmission of protozoan parasites in Africa

Waterborne protozoa (WBP) are important cause of several outbreaks all over the world. The report system of WBP in Africa is weak. More than one third of African countries (21/54) reported WBP with absent reports in the remaining countries (33/54). The top reported WBP were Cryptosporidium, Giardia, FLA and Entamoeba contaminating different African water resources. Other protozoa were less documented even though it is abundant and robust. More than one protozoa were detected in contaminated African water including drinking sources, a prediction index to popular epidemics and real presence of undocumented WBP outbreaks. Risk factors in Africa were observed to be abundant and multi-factorial 'socioeconomic, governmental, pathogen in water and climate change. Climate change is an important factor impacting Africa. Increasing droughts in Africa with other extreme weather events will lead to water crises. Incidence and transmission of WBP will change, with new manifested strains/species. Recognizing future consequences of water crises in Africa are important. Governments and population unity will be needed to protect against expected raise and spread of WBP diseases and water shortages.

Frequency of extreme Sahelian storms tripled since 1982 in satellite observations

The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify under global warming, with studies reporting more frequent extreme rain events in many regions of the world, and predicting increases in future flood frequency. Such early, predominantly mid-latitude observations are essential because of shortcomings within climate models in their depiction of convective rainfall. A globally important group of intense storms-mesoscale convective systems (MCSs)-poses a particular challenge, because they organize dynamically on spatial scales that cannot be resolved by conventional climate models. Here, we use 35 years of satellite observations from the West African Sahel to reveal a persistent increase in the frequency of the most intense MCSs. Sahelian storms are some of the most powerful on the planet, and rain gauges in this region have recorded a rise in 'extreme' daily rainfall totals. We find that intense MCS frequency is only weakly related to the multidecadal recovery of Sahel annual rainfall, but is highly correlated with global land temperatures. Analysis of trends across Africa reveals that MCS intensification is limited to a narrow band south of the Sahara desert. During this period, wet-season Sahelian temperatures have not risen, ruling out the possibility that rainfall has intensified in response to locally warmer conditions. On the other hand, the meridional temperature gradient spanning the Sahel has increased in recent decades, consistent with anthropogenic forcing driving enhanced Saharan warming. We argue that Saharan warming intensifies convection within Sahelian MCSs through increased wind shear and changes to the Saharan air layer. The meridional gradient is projected to strengthen throughout the twenty-first century, suggesting that the Sahel will experience particularly marked increases in extreme rain. The remarkably rapid intensification of Sahelian MCSs since the 1980s sheds new light on the response of organized tropical convection to global warming, and challenges conventional projections made by general circulation models.

Influence of Latent Heating over the Asian and Western Pacific Monsoon Region on Sahel Summer Rainfall

There has been an interdecadal shift towards a less humid state in Sahel summer rainfall since the 1960s. The decreased Sahel summer rainfall was associated with enhanced summer latent heating over the South Asian and western Pacific summer monsoon region and anomalous zonal-vertical cell of the Asian summer monsoon circulation, indicating that the latent heating plays a significant role in the change in Sahel rainfall. The effects of the latent heating over different monsoon domains on the Sahel rainfall are investigated through several model experiments. Results show that the remote monsoon heating mainly affects Sahel rainfall by generating changes in the zonal-vertical atmospheric circulation.

Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation

West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such changes and in the potential for adaptation.