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MCCONNELL KATHRYN, BRANEON CHRISTIANV. Post-wildfire neighborhood change: evidence from the 2018 Camp Fire. LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING 2024; 247:104997. [PMID: 38828213 PMCID: PMC11139020 DOI: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2023.104997] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/05/2024]
Abstract
As the number of highly destructive wildfires grows, it is increasingly important to understand the long-term changes that occur to fire-affected places. Integrating approaches from social and biophysical science, we document two forms of neighborhood change following the 2018 Camp Fire in the United States, examining the more than 17,000 residential structures within the burn footprint. We found that mobile or motor homes, lower-value residences, and absentee owner residences had a significantly higher probability of being destroyed, providing evidence that housing stock filtering facilitated socially stratified patterns of physical damage. While the relationship between building value and destruction probability could be explained by measures of building density and distance to nearby roads, building type remained an independent predictor of structure loss that we could not fully explain by adding environmental covariates to our models. Using a geospatial machine learning technique, we then identified buildings that had been reconstructed within the burn footprint 20 months after the fire. We found that reconstructed buildings were more likely to have been owner-occupied prior to the fire and had higher average pre-fire property value, suggesting an emerging pattern of cost-burden gentrification. Our findings illustrate the importance of examining the built environment as a driver of socially uneven disaster impacts. Wildfire mitigation strategies are needed for mobile and motor home residents, renters, low-income residents, and dense neighborhoods.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - CHRISTIAN V. BRANEON
- Columbia Climate School, CUNY Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR), Carbon Direct, USA
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2
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Conlisk E, Butsic V, Syphard AD, Evans S, Jennings M. Evidence of increasing wildfire damage with decreasing property price in Southern California fires. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0300346. [PMID: 38656930 PMCID: PMC11042721 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0300346] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2023] [Accepted: 02/26/2024] [Indexed: 04/26/2024] Open
Abstract
Across the Western United States, human development into the wildland urban interface (WUI) is contributing to increasing wildfire damage. Given that natural disasters often cause greater harm within socio-economically vulnerable groups, research is needed to explore the potential for disproportionate impacts associated with wildfire. Using Zillow Transaction and Assessment Database (ZTRAX), hereafter "Zillow", real estate data, we explored whether lower-priced structures were more likely to be damaged during the most destructive, recent wildfires in Southern California. Within fire perimeters occurring from 2000-2019, we matched property price data to burned and unburned structures. To be included in the final dataset, fire perimeters had to surround at least 25 burned and 25 unburned structures and have been sold at most seven years before the fire; five fires fit these criteria. We found evidence to support our hypothesis that lower-priced properties were more likely to be damaged, however, the likelihood of damage and the influence of property value significantly varied across individual fire perimeters. When considering fires individually, properties within two 2003 fires-the Cedar and Grand Prix-Old Fires-had statistically significantly decreasing burn damage with increasing property value. Occurring in 2007 and later, the other three fires (Witch-Poomacha, Thomas, and Woolsey) showed no significant relationship between price and damage. Consistent with other studies, topographic position, slope, elevation, and vegetation were also significantly associated with the likelihood of a structure being damaged during the wildfire. Driving time to the nearest fire station and previously identified fire hazard were also significant. Our results suggest that further studies on the extent and reason for disproportionate impacts of wildfire are needed. In the meantime, decision makers should consider allocating wildfire risk mitigation resources-such as fire-fighting and wildfire structural preparedness resources-to more socioeconomically vulnerable neighborhoods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erin Conlisk
- Research was Performed while at Point Blue Conservation Science, Petaluma, California, United States of America
- Conservation Biology Institute, Corvallis, OR, United States of America
| | - Van Butsic
- UC Berkeley, Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | | | - Sam Evans
- Mills College at Northeastern University, Oakland, California, United States of America
| | - Megan Jennings
- San Diego State University, San Diego, California, United States of America
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3
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Gincheva A, Pausas JG, Edwards A, Provenzale A, Cerdà A, Hanes C, Royé D, Chuvieco E, Mouillot F, Vissio G, Rodrigo J, Bedía J, Abatzoglou JT, Senciales González JM, Short KC, Baudena M, Llasat MC, Magnani M, Boer MM, González ME, Torres-Vázquez MÁ, Fiorucci P, Jacklyn P, Libonati R, Trigo RM, Herrera S, Jerez S, Wang X, Turco M. A monthly gridded burned area database of national wildland fire data. Sci Data 2024; 11:352. [PMID: 38589374 PMCID: PMC11002030 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-024-03141-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2023] [Accepted: 03/14/2024] [Indexed: 04/10/2024] Open
Abstract
We assembled the first gridded burned area (BA) database of national wildfire data (ONFIRE), a comprehensive and integrated resource for researchers, non-government organisations, and government agencies analysing wildfires in various regions of the Earth. We extracted and harmonised records from different regions and sources using open and reproducible methods, providing data in a common framework for the whole period available (starting from 1950 in Australia, 1959 in Canada, 1985 in Chile, 1980 in Europe, and 1984 in the United States) up to 2021 on a common 1° × 1° grid. The data originate from national agencies (often, ground mapping), thus representing the best local expert knowledge. Key opportunities and limits in using this dataset are discussed as well as possible future expansions of this open-source approach that should be explored. This dataset complements existing gridded BA data based on remote sensing and offers a valuable opportunity to better understand and assess fire regime changes, and their drivers, in these regions. The ONFIRE database can be freely accessed at https://zenodo.org/record/8289245 .
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrina Gincheva
- Regional Atmospheric Modelling (MAR) Group, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum (CEIR), University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain.
| | - Juli G Pausas
- Centro de Investigaciones sobre Desertificación, Spanish National Research Council (CIDE-CSIC), Valencia, Spain
| | - Andrew Edwards
- Darwin Centre for Bushfire Research, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia
| | - Antonello Provenzale
- Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources - National Research Council of Italy (CNR-IGG), Turin, Italy
- National Biodiversity Future Center, Palermo, Italy
| | - Artemi Cerdà
- Soil Erosion and Degradation Research Group, Department of Geography, Valencia University, Valencia, Spain
| | - Chelene Hanes
- Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada
| | - Dominic Royé
- Climate Research Foundation (FIC), Madrid, Spain
| | - Emilio Chuvieco
- Universidad de Alcalá, Environmental Remote Sensing Research Group, Department of Geology, Geography and the Environment, Alcalá de Henares, Spain
| | - Florent Mouillot
- UMR CEFE, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Gabriele Vissio
- Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources - National Research Council of Italy (CNR-IGG), Turin, Italy
- National Biodiversity Future Center, Palermo, Italy
| | - Jesús Rodrigo
- Departamento de Análisis Geográfico Regional y Geografía Física, Facultad de Filosofía y Letras, Campus Universitario de Cartuja, Universidad de Granada, Granada, Spain
| | - Joaquin Bedía
- Departamento Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación (MACC), Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
- Grupo de Meteorología y Computación, Universidad de Cantabria, Unidad Asociada al CSIC, Santander, Spain
| | - John T Abatzoglou
- Management of Complex Systems, University of California, Merced, USA
| | | | - Karen C Short
- Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Mara Baudena
- National Biodiversity Future Center, Palermo, Italy
- Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy (CNR- ISAC), Torino, Italy
| | - Maria Carmen Llasat
- GAMA, Department of Applied Physics, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Marta Magnani
- Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources - National Research Council of Italy (CNR-IGG), Turin, Italy
- National Biodiversity Future Center, Palermo, Italy
| | - Matthias M Boer
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW, Australia
- NSW Bushfire and Natural Hazards Research Centre, Richmond, NSW, Australia
| | - Mauro E González
- Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile
- Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
| | - Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez
- Regional Atmospheric Modelling (MAR) Group, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum (CEIR), University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain
| | | | - Peter Jacklyn
- Darwin Centre for Bushfire Research, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia
| | - Renata Libonati
- Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Ricardo M Trigo
- Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Sixto Herrera
- Applied Mathematics and Computer Science Department Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
| | - Sonia Jerez
- Regional Atmospheric Modelling (MAR) Group, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum (CEIR), University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain
| | - Xianli Wang
- Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Edmonton, AB, Canada
| | - Marco Turco
- Regional Atmospheric Modelling (MAR) Group, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum (CEIR), University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain
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4
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Kreider MR, Higuera PE, Parks SA, Rice WL, White N, Larson AJ. Fire suppression makes wildfires more severe and accentuates impacts of climate change and fuel accumulation. Nat Commun 2024; 15:2412. [PMID: 38528012 PMCID: PMC10963776 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46702-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2023] [Accepted: 03/07/2024] [Indexed: 03/27/2024] Open
Abstract
Fire suppression is the primary management response to wildfires in many areas globally. By removing less-extreme wildfires, this approach ensures that remaining wildfires burn under more extreme conditions. Here, we term this the "suppression bias" and use a simulation model to highlight how this bias fundamentally impacts wildfire activity, independent of fuel accumulation and climate change. We illustrate how attempting to suppress all wildfires necessarily means that fires will burn with more severe and less diverse ecological impacts, with burned area increasing at faster rates than expected from fuel accumulation or climate change. Over a human lifespan, the modeled impacts of the suppression bias exceed those from fuel accumulation or climate change alone, suggesting that suppression may exert a significant and underappreciated influence on patterns of fire globally. Managing wildfires to safely burn under low and moderate conditions is thus a critical tool to address the growing wildfire crisis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark R Kreider
- Department of Forest Management, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59812, USA.
| | - Philip E Higuera
- Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59812, USA
| | - Sean A Parks
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Missoula, MT, 59801, USA
| | - William L Rice
- Department of Society and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59812, USA
| | - Nadia White
- Environmental Science and Natural Resource Journalism, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59812, USA
| | - Andrew J Larson
- Department of Forest Management, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59812, USA
- Wilderness Institute, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59812, USA
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5
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Hubert MM, Weatherton M, Schussler EE. Emotion, Fact, and Anthropogenic Disturbances: Undergraduate Attitudes Toward Wildfire and Urbanization after a Brief Intervention. CBE LIFE SCIENCES EDUCATION 2024; 23:ar4. [PMID: 38166021 PMCID: PMC10956598 DOI: 10.1187/cbe.22-08-0152] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2022] [Revised: 11/13/2023] [Accepted: 12/12/2023] [Indexed: 01/04/2024]
Abstract
Understanding attitudes towards anthropogenic disturbances, especially among undergraduates, is important to inform educational practices because of the theoretical link between attitude and behavior. We evaluated the attitudes of undergraduate students in a biology majors course and nonmajors course toward two anthropogenic disturbances: wildfire and urbanization. Student attitudes were assessed via an online Wildfire and Urbanization Attitude survey (WUAS) before and after a video intervention, randomly delivered as either fact- or emotion-based versions. Student beliefs regarding wildfire and urbanization were positively correlated with their general intention to act toward environmental issues on both pre- and postintervention surveys, as suggested by theory. Student belief that urbanization was bad for the environment increased from pre- to postintervention. However, beliefs and intention to act did not statistically differ between majors/nonmajors or intervention video type. This study hints that brief interventions can impact student disturbance beliefs, but more research is needed to guide curriculum development. Despite some research suggesting the value of emotion to inspire climate action, our results suggest that more work needs to be done regarding the value of emotion to increase environmental action toward other anthropogenic disturbances.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mali M. Hubert
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville TN 37996
- Department of Natural Sciences, Tennessee Wesleyan University, Athens TN 37303
| | - Maryrose Weatherton
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville TN 37996
- Department of Theory and Practice in Teacher Education, University of Tennessee, Knoxville TN 37996
| | - Elisabeth E. Schussler
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville TN 37996
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6
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Fu Y, Hu J, Duan J, Liu Q, Song W, Li R. Satellite microwave measurements complementary to fire weather improve the assessment of fires among different biomes in Southeast Asia. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 184:108439. [PMID: 38309194 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108439] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2023] [Revised: 12/18/2023] [Accepted: 01/10/2024] [Indexed: 02/05/2024]
Abstract
Microwaves have the advantage of penetrating vegetation and exhibit sensitivity to properties such as vegetation water content (VWC); yet, their potential utility in the fire domain is infrequently investigated. This study elucidates the different impacts of the microwave VWC index EDVI on fire radiative energy (FRE) across various biome types and the significant predictive power for high-severity fires (defined based on FRE) in mainland Southeast Asia. While EDVI exhibits lower predictive power for high severe fires compared to the commonly used fire weather indices (e.g., FWI), an enhancement is observed when these predictors are used in combination. Either by employing EDVI or fire weather indices, the predictability of fires is found to be highest over forests and lowest over croplands. Factors such as increasing human influence and fuel limitation in croplands are likely reducing the roles of VWC and weather on fires, contributing to the lower prediction skill of EDVI and fire weather. These results indicate the usefulness of microwave VWC index in fire studies. Although fire weather presents more considerable impacts on fires, the microwave VWC index seem to still provide some complementary information in fire danger assessment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuyun Fu
- State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, MEM Key Laboratory of Forest Fire Monitoring and Warning, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China; Institut de recherche sur les forêts, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT), Rouyn-Noranda J9X 5E4, Canada; Deep Space Exploration Laboratory, Heifei 230001, China
| | - Jiheng Hu
- State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, MEM Key Laboratory of Forest Fire Monitoring and Warning, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
| | - Jiawei Duan
- State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, MEM Key Laboratory of Forest Fire Monitoring and Warning, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
| | - Qingyang Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, MEM Key Laboratory of Forest Fire Monitoring and Warning, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
| | - Weiguo Song
- State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, MEM Key Laboratory of Forest Fire Monitoring and Warning, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
| | - Rui Li
- State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, MEM Key Laboratory of Forest Fire Monitoring and Warning, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China; Institut de recherche sur les forêts, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT), Rouyn-Noranda J9X 5E4, Canada; Deep Space Exploration Laboratory, Heifei 230001, China.
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7
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Cunningham CX, Williamson GJ, Nolan RH, Teckentrup L, Boer MM, Bowman DMJS. Pyrogeography in flux: Reorganization of Australian fire regimes in a hotter world. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17130. [PMID: 38273509 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17130] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2023] [Revised: 11/16/2023] [Accepted: 12/12/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024]
Abstract
Changes to the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire are having profound implications for ecosystems and society globally, but we have limited understanding of the extent to which fire regimes will reorganize in a warming world. While predicting regime shifts remains challenging because of complex climate-vegetation-fire feedbacks, understanding the climate niches of fire regimes provides a simple way to identify locations most at risk of regime change. Using globally available satellite datasets, we constructed 14 metrics describing the spatiotemporal dimensions of fire and then delineated Australia's pyroregions-the geographic area encapsulating a broad fire regime. Cluster analysis revealed 18 pyroregions, notably including the (1) high-intensity, infrequent fires of the temperate forests, (2) high-frequency, smaller fires of the tropical savanna, and (3) low-intensity, diurnal, human-engineered fires of the agricultural zones. To inform the risk of regime shifts, we identified locations where the climate under three CMIP6 scenarios is projected to shift (i) beyond each pyroregion's historical climate niche, and (ii) into climate space that is novel to the Australian continent. Under middle-of-the-road climate projections (SSP2-4.5), an average of 65% of the extent of the pyroregions occurred beyond their historical climate niches by 2081-2100. Further, 52% of pyroregion extents, on average, were projected to occur in climate space without present-day analogues on the Australian continent, implying high risk of shifting to states that also lack present-day counterparts. Pyroregions in tropical and hot-arid climates were most at risk of shifting into both locally and continentally novel climate space because (i) their niches are narrower than southern temperate pyroregions, and (ii) their already-hot climates lead to earlier departure from present-day climate space. Such a shift implies widespread risk of regime shifts and the emergence of no-analogue fire regimes. Our approach can be applied to other regions to assess vulnerability to rapid fire regime change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Calum X Cunningham
- Fire Centre, School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Grant J Williamson
- Fire Centre, School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Rachael H Nolan
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Lina Teckentrup
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Matthias M Boer
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - David M J S Bowman
- Fire Centre, School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
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8
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Ninneman M, Lyman S, Hu L, Cope E, Ketcherside D, Jaffe D. Investigation of Ozone Formation Chemistry during the Salt Lake Regional Smoke, Ozone, and Aerosol Study (SAMOZA). ACS EARTH & SPACE CHEMISTRY 2023; 7:2521-2534. [PMID: 38148992 PMCID: PMC10749563 DOI: 10.1021/acsearthspacechem.3c00235] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2023] [Revised: 10/13/2023] [Accepted: 11/13/2023] [Indexed: 12/28/2023]
Abstract
Salt Lake City (SLC), UT, is an urban area where ozone (O3) concentrations frequently exceed health standards. This study uses an observationally constrained photochemical box model to investigate the drivers of O3 production during the Salt Lake Regional Smoke, Ozone, and Aerosol Study (SAMOZA), which took place from August to September 2022 in SLC. During SAMOZA, a suite of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and other parameters were measured at the Utah Technical Center, a high-NOx site in the urban core. We examined four high-O3 cases: 4 August and 3, 11, and 12 September, which were classified as a nonsmoky weekday, a weekend day with minimal smoke influence, a smoky weekend day, and a smoky weekday, respectively. The modeled O3 production on 4 August and 3 September was highly sensitive to VOCs and insensitive to NOx reductions of ≤50%. Box model results suggest that the directly emitted formaldehyde contributed to the rapid increase in morning O3 concentrations on 3 September. Model sensitivity tests for September 11-12 indicated that smoke-emitted VOCs, especially aldehydes, had a much larger impact on O3 production than NOx and/or anthropogenic VOCs. On 11 and 12 September, smoke-emitted VOCs enhanced model-predicted maximum daily 8 h average O3 concentrations by 21 and 13 parts per billion (ppb), respectively. Overall, our results suggest that regionwide VOC reductions of at least 30-50% or NOx reductions of at least 60% are needed to bring SLC into compliance with the national O3 standard of 70 ppb.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew Ninneman
- School
of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, University of Washington Bothell, 18115 Campus Way NE, Bothell, Washington 98011, United States
| | - Seth Lyman
- Bingham
Research Center, Utah State University, 320 North Aggie Boulevard, Vernal, Utah 84078, United States
- Department
of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Utah State
University, 4820 Old
Main Hill, Logan, Utah 84322, United States
| | - Lu Hu
- Department
of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University
of Montana, 32 Campus Drive, Missoula, Montana 59812, United States
| | - Emily Cope
- Department
of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University
of Montana, 32 Campus Drive, Missoula, Montana 59812, United States
| | - Damien Ketcherside
- Department
of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University
of Montana, 32 Campus Drive, Missoula, Montana 59812, United States
| | - Daniel Jaffe
- School
of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, University of Washington Bothell, 18115 Campus Way NE, Bothell, Washington 98011, United States
- Department
of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, 3920 Okanogan Lane, Seattle, Washington 98195, United States
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9
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Rodman KC, Davis KT, Parks SA, Chapman TB, Coop JD, Iniguez JM, Roccaforte JP, Sánchez Meador AJ, Springer JD, Stevens-Rumann CS, Stoddard MT, Waltz AEM, Wasserman TN. Refuge-yeah or refuge-nah? Predicting locations of forest resistance and recruitment in a fiery world. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:7029-7050. [PMID: 37706328 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16939] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2023] [Revised: 08/25/2023] [Accepted: 08/31/2023] [Indexed: 09/15/2023]
Abstract
Climate warming, land use change, and altered fire regimes are driving ecological transformations that can have critical effects on Earth's biota. Fire refugia-locations that are burned less frequently or severely than their surroundings-may act as sites of relative stability during this period of rapid change by being resistant to fire and supporting post-fire recovery in adjacent areas. Because of their value to forest ecosystem persistence, there is an urgent need to anticipate where refugia are most likely to be found and where they align with environmental conditions that support post-fire tree recruitment. Using biophysical predictors and patterns of burn severity from 1180 recent fire events, we mapped the locations of potential fire refugia across upland conifer forests in the southwestern United States (US) (99,428 km2 of forest area), a region that is highly vulnerable to fire-driven transformation. We found that low pre-fire forest cover, flat slopes or topographic concavities, moderate weather conditions, spring-season burning, and areas affected by low- to moderate-severity fire within the previous 15 years were most commonly associated with refugia. Based on current (i.e., 2021) conditions, we predicted that 67.6% and 18.1% of conifer forests in our study area would contain refugia under moderate and extreme fire weather, respectively. However, potential refugia were 36.4% (moderate weather) and 31.2% (extreme weather) more common across forests that experienced recent fires, supporting the increased use of prescribed and resource objective fires during moderate weather conditions to promote fire-resistant landscapes. When overlaid with models of tree recruitment, 23.2% (moderate weather) and 6.4% (extreme weather) of forests were classified as refugia with a high potential to support post-fire recruitment in the surrounding landscape. These locations may be disproportionately valuable for ecosystem sustainability, providing habitat for fire-sensitive species and maintaining forest persistence in an increasingly fire-prone world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kyle C Rodman
- Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Kimberley T Davis
- Fire Sciences Laboratory, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Sean A Parks
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Teresa B Chapman
- Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning Program, Chief Conservation Office, The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, Virginia, USA
| | - Jonathan D Coop
- Clark School of Environment and Sustainability, Western Colorado University, Gunnison, Colorado, USA
| | - Jose M Iniguez
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - John P Roccaforte
- Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Andrew J Sánchez Meador
- Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
- School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Judith D Springer
- Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Camille S Stevens-Rumann
- Colorado Forest Restoration Institute, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
- Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Michael T Stoddard
- Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Amy E M Waltz
- Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Tzeidle N Wasserman
- Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
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10
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Gorta SBZ, Callaghan CT, Samonte F, Ooi MKJ, Mesaglio T, Laffan SW, Cornwell WK. Multi-taxon biodiversity responses to the 2019-2020 Australian megafires. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:6727-6740. [PMID: 37823682 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16955] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2022] [Revised: 08/29/2023] [Accepted: 09/05/2023] [Indexed: 10/13/2023]
Abstract
Conditions conducive to fires are becoming increasingly common and widespread under climate change. Recent fire events across the globe have occurred over unprecedented scales, affecting a diverse array of species and habitats. Understanding biodiversity responses to such fires is critical for conservation. Quantifying post-fire recovery is problematic across taxa, from insects to plants to vertebrates, especially at large geographic scales. Novel datasets can address this challenge. We use presence-only citizen science data from iNaturalist, collected before and after the 2019-2020 megafires in burnt and unburnt regions of eastern Australia, to quantify the effect of post-fire diversity responses, up to 18 months post-fire. The geographic, temporal, and taxonomic sampling of this dataset was large, but sampling effort and species discoverability were unevenly spread. We used rarefaction and prediction (iNEXT) with which we controlled sampling completeness among treatments, to estimate diversity indices (Hill numbers: q = 0-2) among nine broad taxon groupings and seven habitats, including 3885 species. We estimated an increase in species diversity up to 18 months after the 2019-2020 Australian megafires in regions which were burnt, compared to before the fires in burnt and unburnt regions. Diversity estimates in dry sclerophyll forest matched and likely drove this overall increase post-fire, while no taxon groupings showed clear increases inconsistent with both control treatments post-fire. Compared to unburnt regions, overall diversity across all taxon groupings and habitats greatly decreased in areas exposed to extreme fire severity. Post-fire life histories are complex and species detectability is an important consideration in all post-fire sampling. We demonstrate how fire characteristics, distinct taxa, and habitat influence biodiversity, as seen in local-scale datasets. Further integration of large-scale datasets with small-scale studies will lead to a more robust understanding of fire recovery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon B Z Gorta
- Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Corey T Callaghan
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Fort Lauderdale Research and Education Center, University of Florida, Davie, Florida, USA
| | - Fabrice Samonte
- Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Mark K J Ooi
- Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Thomas Mesaglio
- Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Shawn W Laffan
- Earth and Sustainability Science Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Will K Cornwell
- Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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11
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Radeloff VC, Mockrin MH, Helmers D, Carlson A, Hawbaker TJ, Martinuzzi S, Schug F, Alexandre PM, Kramer HA, Pidgeon AM. Rising wildfire risk to houses in the United States, especially in grasslands and shrublands. Science 2023; 382:702-707. [PMID: 37943916 DOI: 10.1126/science.ade9223] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2022] [Accepted: 09/05/2023] [Indexed: 11/12/2023]
Abstract
Wildfire risks to homes are increasing, especially in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where wildland vegetation and houses are in close proximity. Notably, we found that more houses are exposed to and destroyed by grassland and shrubland fires than by forest fires in the United States. Destruction was more likely in forest fires, but they burned less WUI. The number of houses within wildfire perimeters has doubled since the 1990s because of both housing growth (47% of additionally exposed houses) and more burned area (53%). Most exposed houses were in the WUI, which grew substantially during the 2010s (2.6 million new WUI houses), albeit not as rapidly as before. Any WUI growth increases wildfire risk to houses though, and more fires increase the risk to existing WUI houses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Volker C Radeloff
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Miranda H Mockrin
- Northern Research Station, US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Catonsville, MD 21228, USA
| | - David Helmers
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Amanda Carlson
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Todd J Hawbaker
- US Geological Survey, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Lakewood, CO 80225, USA
| | - Sebastian Martinuzzi
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Franz Schug
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Patricia M Alexandre
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - H Anu Kramer
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Anna M Pidgeon
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
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12
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Swain DL, Abatzoglou JT, Kolden C, Shive K, Kalashnikov DA, Singh D, Smith E. Climate change is narrowing and shifting prescribed fire windows in western United States. COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT 2023; 4:340. [PMID: 38665191 PMCID: PMC11041722 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00993-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2023] [Accepted: 09/08/2023] [Indexed: 04/28/2024]
Abstract
Escalating wildfire activity in the western United States has accelerated adverse societal impacts. Observed increases in wildfire severity and impacts to communities have diverse anthropogenic causes-including the legacy of fire suppression policies, increased development in high-risk zones, and aridification by a warming climate. However, the intentional use of fire as a vegetation management tool, known as "prescribed fire," can reduce the risk of destructive fires and restore ecosystem resilience. Prescribed fire implementation is subject to multiple constraints, including the number of days characterized by weather and vegetation conditions conducive to achieving desired outcomes. Here, we quantify observed and projected trends in the frequency and seasonality of western United States prescribed fire days. We find that while ~2 C of global warming by 2060 will reduce such days overall (-17%), particularly during spring (-25%) and summer (-31%), winter (+4%) may increasingly emerge as a comparatively favorable window for prescribed fire especially in northern states.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel L. Swain
- Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA
- Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO USA
- The Nature Conservancy of California, Sacramento, CA USA
| | - John T. Abatzoglou
- Management of Complex Systems Department, University of California, Merced, Merced, CA USA
| | - Crystal Kolden
- Management of Complex Systems Department, University of California, Merced, Merced, CA USA
| | - Kristen Shive
- The Nature Conservancy of California, Sacramento, CA USA
- Environmental Science, Policy and Management Department, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA USA
| | | | - Deepti Singh
- School of the Environment, Washington State University, Vancouver, WA USA
| | - Edward Smith
- The Nature Conservancy of California, Sacramento, CA USA
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13
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Burke M, Childs ML, de la Cuesta B, Qiu M, Li J, Gould CF, Heft-Neal S, Wara M. The contribution of wildfire to PM 2.5 trends in the USA. Nature 2023; 622:761-766. [PMID: 37730996 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06522-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2023] [Accepted: 08/07/2023] [Indexed: 09/22/2023]
Abstract
Steady improvements in ambient air quality in the USA over the past several decades, in part a result of public policy1,2, have led to public health benefits1-4. However, recent trends in ambient concentrations of particulate matter with diameters less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5), a pollutant regulated under the Clean Air Act1, have stagnated or begun to reverse throughout much of the USA5. Here we use a combination of ground- and satellite-based air pollution data from 2000 to 2022 to quantify the contribution of wildfire smoke to these PM2.5 trends. We find that since at least 2016, wildfire smoke has influenced trends in average annual PM2.5 concentrations in nearly three-quarters of states in the contiguous USA, eroding about 25% of previous multi-decadal progress in reducing PM2.5 concentrations on average in those states, equivalent to 4 years of air quality progress, and more than 50% in many western states. Smoke influence on trends in the number of days with extreme PM2.5 concentrations is detectable by 2011, but the influence can be detected primarily in western and mid-western states. Wildfire-driven increases in ambient PM2.5 concentrations are unregulated under current air pollution law6 and, in the absence of further interventions, we show that the contribution of wildfire to regional and national air quality trends is likely to grow as the climate continues to warm.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marshall Burke
- Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
- National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, USA.
| | - Marissa L Childs
- Center for the Environment, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Brandon de la Cuesta
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Minghao Qiu
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Jessica Li
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Carlos F Gould
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Sam Heft-Neal
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Michael Wara
- Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
- Woods Institute of the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
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14
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Vachula RS, Nelson JR, Hall AG. The timing of fireworks-caused wildfire ignitions during the 4th of July holiday season. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0291026. [PMID: 37656710 PMCID: PMC10473470 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0291026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2023] [Accepted: 08/18/2023] [Indexed: 09/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Although anthropogenic climate change is causing increased wildfire activity in the United States (US), humans are also an important ignition source. Humans cause a surge in wildfire ignitions every 4th of July (Independence Day in the US) through the use of fireworks. We examine the 4th of July peak in fireworks-caused wildfire ignitions and show that their spatial distribution varies but has been heavily concentrated in the west and north central US and predominantly on tribal lands. Further, we show that the weekly timing of the 4th of July influences both the number and weekly distribution structure of fireworks-caused ignitions. We interpret these weekly and daily-scale distribution patterns of fireworks-caused ignitions to reflect the influences of human behavioral variations, culture, and fireworks regulations. For example, our analysis suggests that weekends and religious days of rest (e.g., Saturday, Sunday) have a dampening effect on the number on wildfire ignitions due to fireworks, and that weekends and the timing of work holidays likely impact the weekly distribution of fireworks-caused ignitions. Additionally, comparisons of fireworks-caused ignitions before and after the 4th of July at the daily and weekly scale likely reflect the efficacy of firework sales regulations and human behavioral tendencies towards pre-holiday impulsiveness. Given the predictability of the fireworks-caused ignitions and rising costs of wildfire mitigation, these results have several important management and policy implications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard S. Vachula
- Department of Geosciences, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama, United States of America
| | - Jake R. Nelson
- Department of Geosciences, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama, United States of America
| | - Anthony G. Hall
- Department of Geosciences, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama, United States of America
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15
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Zhang D, Xi Y, Boffa DJ, Liu Y, Nogueira LM. Association of Wildfire Exposure While Recovering From Lung Cancer Surgery With Overall Survival. JAMA Oncol 2023; 9:1214-1220. [PMID: 37498574 PMCID: PMC10375383 DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2023.2144] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2022] [Accepted: 04/26/2023] [Indexed: 07/28/2023]
Abstract
Importance With a changing climate, wildfire activity in the US has increased dramatically, presenting multifaceted and compounding health hazards. Individuals discharged from the hospital following surgical resection of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are potentially at higher risk from wildfires' health hazards. Objective To assess the association between wildfire exposure and postoperative long-term overall survival among patients with lung cancer in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants In this cohort study, individuals who underwent curative-intent NSCLC resection between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2019, were selected from the National Cancer Database. Daily wildfire information was aggregated at the zip code level from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Fire Information for Resource Management System. The data analysis was performed between July 19, 2022, and April 14, 2023. Exposure An active wildfire detected at the zip code of residence between 0 and 3, 4 and 6, or 7 and 12 months after NSCLC surgery. Main Outcome Overall survival was defined as the interval between age at hospital discharge and age at death, last contact, or study end, whichever came first. Cox proportional hazards were used for estimating hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for sex, region, metropolitan category, health insurance type, comorbidities, tumor size, lymph node involvement, era, and facility type. Results A total of 466 912 individuals included in the study (249 303 female and [53.4] and 217 609 male [46.6%]; mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 67.3 [9.9] years), with 48 582 (10.4%) first exposed to a wildfire between 0 and 3 months, 48 328 (10.6%) between 4 and 6 months, and 71 735 (15.3%) between 7 and 12 months following NSCLC surgery. Individuals exposed to a wildfire within 3 months (adjusted HR [AHR], 1.43; 95% CI, 1.41-1.45), between 4 and 6 months (AHR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.37-1.41), and between 7 and 12 months (AHR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.15-1.19) after discharge from the hospital following stage I to III NSCLC resection had worse overall survival than unexposed individuals. Conclusions In this cohort study, wildfire exposure was associated with worse overall survival following NSCLC surgical resection, suggesting that patients with lung cancer are at greater risk from the health hazards of wildfires and need to be prioritized in climate adaptation efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Danlu Zhang
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Yuzhi Xi
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
| | | | - Yang Liu
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Leticia M. Nogueira
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Kennesaw, Georgia
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16
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Magerl A, Gingrich S, Matej S, Cunfer G, Forrest M, Lauk C, Schlaffer S, Weidinger F, Yuskiw C, Erb K. The Role of Wildfires in the Interplay of Forest Carbon Stocks and Wood Harvest in the Contiguous United States During the 20th Century. GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES 2023; 37:e2023GB007813. [PMID: 38439941 PMCID: PMC10909529 DOI: 10.1029/2023gb007813] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2023] [Revised: 07/05/2023] [Accepted: 07/25/2023] [Indexed: 03/06/2024]
Abstract
Wildfires and land use play a central role in the long-term carbon (C) dynamics of forested ecosystems of the United States. Understanding their linkages with changes in biomass, resource use, and consumption in the context of climate change mitigation is crucial. We reconstruct a long-term C balance of forests in the contiguous U.S. using historical reports, satellite data, and other sources at multiple scales (national scale 1926-2017, regional level 1941-2017) to disentangle the drivers of biomass C stock change. The balance includes removals of forest biomass by fire, by extraction of woody biomass, by forest grazing, and by biomass stock change, their sum representing the net ecosystem productivity (NEP). Nationally, the total forest NEP increased for most of the 20th century, while fire, harvest and grazing reduced total forest stocks on average by 14%, 51%, and 6%, respectively, resulting in a net increase in C stock density of nearly 40%. Recovery from past land-use, plus reductions in wildfires and forest grazing coincide with consistent forest regrowth in the eastern U.S. but associated C stock increases were offset by increased wood harvest. C stock changes across the western U.S. fluctuated, with fire, harvest, and other disturbances (e.g., insects, droughts) reducing stocks on average by 14%, 81%, and 7%, respectively, resulting in a net growth in C stock density of 14%. Although wildfire activities increased in recent decades, harvest was the key driver in the forest C balance in all regions for most of the observed timeframe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas Magerl
- Institute of Social EcologyUniversity of Natural Resources and Life SciencesViennaAustria
| | - Simone Gingrich
- Institute of Social EcologyUniversity of Natural Resources and Life SciencesViennaAustria
| | - Sarah Matej
- Institute of Social EcologyUniversity of Natural Resources and Life SciencesViennaAustria
| | - Geoff Cunfer
- Department of HistoryUniversity of SaskatchewanSaskatoonSKCanada
| | - Matthew Forrest
- Senckenberg Gesellschaft für NaturforschungFrankfurt am MainGermany
| | - Christian Lauk
- Institute of Social EcologyUniversity of Natural Resources and Life SciencesViennaAustria
| | | | - Florian Weidinger
- Institute of Social EcologyUniversity of Natural Resources and Life SciencesViennaAustria
| | - Cody Yuskiw
- College of LawUniversity of SaskatchewanSaskatoonSKCanada
| | - Karl‐Heinz Erb
- Institute of Social EcologyUniversity of Natural Resources and Life SciencesViennaAustria
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17
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Naserinejad N, Costanian C, Birot O, Barboni T, Roudier E. Wildland fire, air pollution and cardiovascular health: is it time to focus on the microvasculature as a risk assessment tool? Front Physiol 2023; 14:1225195. [PMID: 37538378 PMCID: PMC10394245 DOI: 10.3389/fphys.2023.1225195] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2023] [Accepted: 07/06/2023] [Indexed: 08/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change favors weather conditions conducive to wildland fires. The intensity and frequency of forest fires are increasing, and fire seasons are lengthening. Exposure of human populations to smoke emitted by these fires increases, thereby contributing to airborne pollution through the emission of gas and particulate matter (PM). The adverse health outcomes associated with wildland fire exposure represent an important burden on the economies and health systems of societies. Even though cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the main of cause of the global burden of diseases attributable to PM exposure, it remains difficult to show reliable associations between exposure to wildland fire smoke and cardiovascular disease risk in population-based studies. Optimal health requires a resilient and adaptable network of small blood vessels, namely, the microvasculature. Often alterations of this microvasculature precede the occurrence of adverse health outcomes, including CVD. Biomarkers of microvascular health could then represent possible markers for the early detection of poor cardiovascular outcomes. This review aims to synthesize the current literature to gauge whether assessing the microvasculature can better estimate the cardiovascular impact of wildland fires.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nazgol Naserinejad
- School of Global Health, Faculty of Health, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Christy Costanian
- School of Global Health, Faculty of Health, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Department of Family and Community Medicine, St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Olivier Birot
- Muscle Health Research Center, School of Kinesiology and Health Science, Faculty of Health, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Toussaint Barboni
- Laboratoire des Sciences Pour l’Environnement (SPE), UMR-CNRS 6134, University of Corsica Pasquale Paoli, Campus Grimaldi, Corte, France
| | - Emilie Roudier
- School of Global Health, Faculty of Health, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Muscle Health Research Center, School of Kinesiology and Health Science, Faculty of Health, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
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18
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Bhowmik RT, Jung YS, Aguilera JA, Prunicki M, Nadeau K. A multi-modal wildfire prediction and early-warning system based on a novel machine learning framework. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 341:117908. [PMID: 37182403 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117908] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2022] [Revised: 02/16/2023] [Accepted: 04/09/2023] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Wildfires are increasingly impacting the environment and human health. Among the top 20 California wildfires, those in 2020-2021 burned more acres than the last century combined. Lack of an adequate early warning system impacts the health and safety of vulnerable populations disproportionately and widens the inequality gap. In this project, a multi-modal wildfire prediction and early warning system has been developed based on a novel spatio-temporal machine learning architecture. A comprehensive wildfire database with over 37 million data points was created, including the historical wildfires, environmental and meteorological sensor data from the Environmental Protection Agency, and geological data. The data was augmented into 2.53 km × 2.53 km square grids to overcome the sensor network coverage limitations. Leading and trailing indicators for the wildfires are proposed, classified, and tested. The leading indicators are correlated to the risks of wildfire conception, whereas the trailing indicators are correlated to the byproducts of the wildfires. Additionally, geological data was incorporated to provide additional information for better assessment on wildfire risks and propagation. Next, a novel U-Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ULSTM) neural network was developed to extract key spatial and temporal features of the dataset, specifically to address the spatial nature of the location of the wildfire and time-progression temporal nature of the wildfire evolution. Through iterative improvements and optimization, the final ULSTM network architecture, trained with data from 2012 to 2017, achieved >97% accuracy for predicting wildfires in 2018, as compared to ∼76% using traditional Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) techniques. The final model was applied to conduct a retrospective study for the 2018-2022 wildfire seasons, and successfully predicted 85.7% of wildfires >300 K acres in size. This technique could enable fire departments to anticipate and prevent wildfires before they strike and provide early warnings for at-risk individuals for better preparation, thereby saving lives, protecting the environment, and avoiding economic damages.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rohan T Bhowmik
- Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA; The Harker School, San Jose, CA, 95129, USA.
| | - Youn Soo Jung
- Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA
| | - Juan A Aguilera
- Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA
| | - Mary Prunicki
- Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA
| | - Kari Nadeau
- Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA
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19
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Reeve C, Robichaud JA, Fernandes T, Bates AE, Bramburger AJ, Brownscombe JW, Davy CM, Henry HAL, McMeans BC, Moise ERD, Sharma S, Smith PA, Studd EK, O’Sullivan A, Sutton AO, Templer PH, Cooke SJ. Applied winter biology: threats, conservation and management of biological resources during winter in cold climate regions. CONSERVATION PHYSIOLOGY 2023; 11:coad027. [PMID: 37179705 PMCID: PMC10170328 DOI: 10.1093/conphys/coad027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2022] [Revised: 04/07/2023] [Accepted: 04/28/2023] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Winter at high latitudes is characterized by low temperatures, dampened light levels and short photoperiods which shape ecological and evolutionary outcomes from cells to populations to ecosystems. Advances in our understanding of winter biological processes (spanning physiology, behaviour and ecology) highlight that biodiversity threats (e.g. climate change driven shifts in reproductive windows) may interact with winter conditions, leading to greater ecological impacts. As such, conservation and management strategies that consider winter processes and their consequences on biological mechanisms may lead to greater resilience of high altitude and latitude ecosystems. Here, we use well-established threat and action taxonomies produced by the International Union of Conservation of Nature-Conservation Measures Partnership (IUCN-CMP) to synthesize current threats to biota that emerge during, or as the result of, winter processes then discuss targeted management approaches for winter-based conservation. We demonstrate the importance of considering winter when identifying threats to biodiversity and deciding on appropriate management strategies across species and ecosystems. We confirm our expectation that threats are prevalent during the winter and are especially important considering the physiologically challenging conditions that winter presents. Moreover, our findings emphasize that climate change and winter-related constraints on organisms will intersect with other stressors to potentially magnify threats and further complicate management. Though conservation and management practices are less commonly considered during the winter season, we identified several potential or already realized applications relevant to winter that could be beneficial. Many of the examples are quite recent, suggesting a potential turning point for applied winter biology. This growing body of literature is promising but we submit that more research is needed to identify and address threats to wintering biota for targeted and proactive conservation. We suggest that management decisions consider the importance of winter and incorporate winter specific strategies for holistic and mechanistic conservation and resource management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Connor Reeve
- Fish Ecology and Conservation Physiology Laboratory, Department of Biology and Institute of Environmental and Interdisciplinary Science, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Dr., Ottawa, Ontario, K1S 5B6, Canada
| | - Jessica A Robichaud
- Fish Ecology and Conservation Physiology Laboratory, Department of Biology and Institute of Environmental and Interdisciplinary Science, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Dr., Ottawa, Ontario, K1S 5B6, Canada
| | - Timothy Fernandes
- Department of Biology, University of Toronto Mississauga, 3359 Mississauga Rd., Mississauga, Ontario, L5L 1C6, Canada
| | - Amanda E Bates
- Department of Biology, University of Victoria, 3800 Finnerty Rd., Victoria, British Columbia, V8P 5C2 Canada
| | - Andrew J Bramburger
- Watershed Hydrology and Ecology Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 867 Lakeshore Rd., Burlington, Ontario, L7S 1A1, Canada
| | - Jacob W Brownscombe
- Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 867 Lakeshore Rd., Burlington, Ontario, L7S 1A1, Canada
- Department of Biology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Dr., Ottawa, Ontario, K1S 5B6, Canada
| | - Christina M Davy
- Department of Biology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Dr., Ottawa, Ontario, K1S 5B6, Canada
| | - Hugh A L Henry
- Department of Biology, University of Western Ontario, 1151 Richmond St. N, London, Ontario, N6A 5B7, Canada
| | - Bailey C McMeans
- Department of Biology, University of Toronto Mississauga, 3359 Mississauga Rd., Mississauga, Ontario, L5L 1C6, Canada
| | - Eric R D Moise
- Natural Resources Canada – Canadian Forest Service, 26 University Drive, Corner Brook, Newfoundland and Labrador, A2H 5G4, Canada
| | - Sapna Sharma
- Department of Biology, York University, 4700 Keele St., Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3, Canada
| | - Paul A Smith
- Department of Biology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Dr., Ottawa, Ontario, K1S 5B6, Canada
- Wildlife Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 1125 Colonel By Dr., Ottawa, Ontario, K1S 5B6, Canada
| | - Emily K Studd
- Department of Biology, University of Toronto Mississauga, 3359 Mississauga Rd., Mississauga, Ontario, L5L 1C6, Canada
| | - Antóin O’Sullivan
- Biology Department, Canadian Rivers Institute, University of New Brunswick, 550 Windsor St., Fredericton, New Brunswick, E3B 5A3, Canada
| | - Alex O Sutton
- School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Deiniol Rd, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2UR, UK
| | - Pamela H Templer
- Department of Biology, Boston University, 5 Cummington Mall, Boston, MA, 02215, USA
| | - Steven J Cooke
- Fish Ecology and Conservation Physiology Laboratory, Department of Biology and Institute of Environmental and Interdisciplinary Science, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Dr., Ottawa, Ontario, K1S 5B6, Canada
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20
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Weise CL, Brussee BE, Coates PS, Shinneman DJ, Crist MR, Aldridge CL, Heinrichs JA, Ricca MA. A retrospective assessment of fuel break effectiveness for containing rangeland wildfires in the sagebrush biome. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 341:117903. [PMID: 37146489 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117903] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2022] [Revised: 04/06/2023] [Accepted: 04/08/2023] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
Escalated wildfire activity within the western U.S. has widespread societal impacts and long-term consequences for the imperiled sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) biome. Shifts from historical fire regimes and the interplay between frequent disturbance and invasive annual grasses may initiate permanent state transitions as wildfire frequency outpaces sagebrush communities' innate capacity to recover. Therefore, wildfire management is at the core of conservation plans for sagebrush ecosystems, especially critical habitat for species of conservation concern such as the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter sage-grouse). Fuel breaks help facilitate wildfire suppression by modifying behavior through fuels modification and allowing safe access points for containment by firefighters. The Bureau of Land Management has proposed to roughly double the existing fuel break network in the western U.S., centered on the Great Basin. To our knowledge, no broad-scale examination of fuel break effectiveness or the environmental conditions under which fuel breaks are expected to be most effective has been conducted. We performed a retrospective assessment of probability of fuel break contributing to wildfire containment on recorded wildfire and fuel break interactions from 1985 to 2018 within the western U.S. We characterized environmental, fuels, and weather conditions within 500 m of wildfire contact, and within 5 km of the approaching wildfire. We used a binomial mixed model within a Bayesian framework to identify relationships between these variables and fuel break success. Fuel breaks were least successful in areas classified as having low resilience to disturbance and low resistance to invasion, in areas composed of primarily woody fuels, and when operating in high temperature and low precipitation conditions. Fuel breaks were most effective in areas where fine fuels dominated and in areas that were readily accessible. Maintenance history and fuel break type also contributed to the probability of containment. Overall results indicate a complex and sometimes paradoxical relationship between landscape characteristics that promote wildfire spread and those that impact fuel break effectiveness. Finally, we developed predictive maps of fuel break effectiveness by fuel break type to further elucidate these complex relationships and to inform urgently needed fuel break placement and maintenance priorities across the sagebrush biome.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cali L Weise
- U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Dixon Field Station, 800 Business Park Drive, Suite D, Dixon, CA, 95620, USA
| | - Brianne E Brussee
- U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Dixon Field Station, 800 Business Park Drive, Suite D, Dixon, CA, 95620, USA
| | - Peter S Coates
- U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Dixon Field Station, 800 Business Park Drive, Suite D, Dixon, CA, 95620, USA.
| | - Douglas J Shinneman
- U.S. Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, 230 N. Collins Rd., Boise, ID, 83706, USA
| | - Michele R Crist
- Bureau of Land Management, National Interagency Fire Center, 3833 Development Avenue, Boise, ID, 83705-5354, USA
| | - Cameron L Aldridge
- U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, 2150 Centre Avenue, Building C, Fort Collins, CO, 80526-8118, USA
| | - Julie A Heinrichs
- Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University; in Cooperation with U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, 2150 Centre Avenue, Building C, Fort Collins, CO, 80526-8118, USA
| | - Mark A Ricca
- U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Dixon Field Station, 800 Business Park Drive, Suite D, Dixon, CA, 95620, USA; U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, 777 NW 9th St #400, Corvallis, OR 97330, USA
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21
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Higuera PE, Cook MC, Balch JK, Stavros EN, Mahood AL, St. Denis LA. Shifting social-ecological fire regimes explain increasing structure loss from Western wildfires. PNAS NEXUS 2023; 2:pgad005. [PMID: 36938500 PMCID: PMC10019760 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2022] [Revised: 12/19/2022] [Accepted: 01/03/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Structure loss is an acute, costly impact of the wildfire crisis in the western conterminous United States ("West"), motivating the need to understand recent trends and causes. We document a 246% rise in West-wide structure loss from wildfires between 1999-2009 and 2010-2020, driven strongly by events in 2017, 2018, and 2020. Increased structure loss was not due to increased area burned alone. Wildfires became significantly more destructive, with a 160% higher structure-loss rate (loss/kha burned) over the past decade. Structure loss was driven primarily by wildfires from unplanned human-related ignitions (e.g. backyard burning, power lines, etc.), which accounted for 76% of all structure loss and resulted in 10 times more structures destroyed per unit area burned compared with lightning-ignited fires. Annual structure loss was well explained by area burned from human-related ignitions, while decadal structure loss was explained by state-level structure abundance in flammable vegetation. Both predictors increased over recent decades and likely interacted with increased fuel aridity to drive structure-loss trends. While states are diverse in patterns and trends, nearly all experienced more burning from human-related ignitions and/or higher structure-loss rates, particularly California, Washington, and Oregon. Our findings highlight how fire regimes-characteristics of fire over space and time-are fundamentally social-ecological phenomena. By resolving the diversity of Western fire regimes, our work informs regionally appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. With millions of structures with high fire risk, reducing human-related ignitions and rethinking how we build are critical for preventing future wildfire disasters.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Maxwell C Cook
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, 4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348, 611 UCB, Boulder, CO 80303, USA
- Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Guggenheim 110, 260 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - Jennifer K Balch
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, 4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348, 611 UCB, Boulder, CO 80303, USA
- Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Guggenheim 110, 260 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - E Natasha Stavros
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, 4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348, 611 UCB, Boulder, CO 80303, USA
| | - Adam L Mahood
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, 4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348, 611 UCB, Boulder, CO 80303, USA
- Water Resources, Agriculture Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, 2150 Centre Avenue, Building D, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA
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22
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Walden L, Fontaine JB, Ruthrof KX, Matusick G, Harper RJ. Drought then wildfire reveals a compound disturbance in a resprouting forest. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2023; 33:e2775. [PMID: 36344448 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2775] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2022] [Revised: 08/18/2022] [Accepted: 09/13/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
The frequency and intensity of forest disturbances, such as drought and fire, are increasing globally, with an increased likelihood of multiple disturbance events occurring in short succession. Disturbances layered over one another may influence the likelihood or intensity of subsequent events (a linked disturbance) or impact response and recovery trajectories (a compound disturbance), with substantial implications for ecological spatiotemporal vulnerability. This study evaluates evidence for disturbance interactions of drought followed by wildfire in a resprouting eucalypt-dominated forest (the Northern Jarrah Forest) in southwestern Australia. Sites were stratified by drought (high, low), from previous modeling and ground validation, and fire severity (high, moderate, unburnt), via remote sensing using the relative difference normalized burn ratio (RdNBR). Evidence of a linked disturbance was assessed via fine fuel consumption and fire severity. Compound disturbance effects were quantified at stand scale (canopy height, quadratic mean diameter, stem density) and stem scale (mortality). There was no evidence of prior drought influencing fine fuel consumption or fire severity and, hence, no evidence of a linked disturbance. However, compound disturbance effects were evident; stands previously affected by drought experienced smaller shifts in canopy height, quadratic mean diameter, and stem density than stands without prior drought impact. At the stem scale, size and fire severity were the strongest determinants of stem survival. Proportional resprouting height was greater in high drought sites than in low drought sites (p < 0.01), meaning, structurally, the low drought stands decreased in height more than the high drought stands. Thus, a legacy of the drought was evident after the wildfire. Although these resprouting eucalypt forests have been regarded as particularly resilient, this study illustrates how multiple disturbances can overwhelm the larger tree component and promote an abundance of smaller stems. We suggest that this is early evidence of a structural destabilization of these forests under a more fire-prone, hotter, and drier future climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lewis Walden
- Environmental and Conservation Sciences, Murdoch University, Murdoch, Western Australia, Australia
- Soil and Landscape Science, School of Molecular and Life Sciences, Curtin University, Bentley, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Joseph B Fontaine
- Environmental and Conservation Sciences, Murdoch University, Murdoch, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Katinka X Ruthrof
- Environmental and Conservation Sciences, Murdoch University, Murdoch, Western Australia, Australia
- Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Kensington, Western Australia, Australia
| | - George Matusick
- Environmental and Conservation Sciences, Murdoch University, Murdoch, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Richard J Harper
- Environmental and Conservation Sciences, Murdoch University, Murdoch, Western Australia, Australia
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23
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Tomat-Kelly G, Flory SL. Research gaps limit understanding of invasion-fire cycles. Biol Invasions 2023. [DOI: 10.1007/s10530-022-02951-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/01/2023]
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24
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Anderson J, Prosser RS. Investigation of the potential effects of firefighting water additives on soil invertebrates and terrestrial plants. CHEMOSPHERE 2023; 313:137496. [PMID: 36502915 DOI: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2022.137496] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2022] [Revised: 11/29/2022] [Accepted: 12/04/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
The intensity and frequency of forest fires is increasing across the globe due to climate change. Additives are often added to make water more effective at extinguishing fire and preventing re-ignition. This study investigated the toxicity of nine different firefighting water additives to four species of soil invertebrates (Folsomia candida, Porcellio laevis, Porcellio scaber, and Trichorhina tomentosa) and two plant species (Agropyron cristatum and Raphanus sativus). Considerable variation in toxicity was observed among the firefighting products. The toxicity of individual products also varied considerably amongst the tested species. A hazard assessment was conducted by comparing the concentration of firefighting water additive that caused a 50% effect (LC50 or EC50) or a concentration that caused no effect (NOEC) to the concentration recommended by the manufacturer. At a rate of application representative of a forest firefighting scenario, most firefighting water additives tested in this study posed a hazard to F. candida and the three isopod species. The majority of products did not pose a risk to the two plant species included in this study. Consideration of the toxicity of firefighting water additives to terrestrial biota should be considered along with the efficacy of the product to fight fires when deciding which products to use.
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Affiliation(s)
- J Anderson
- University of Guelph, School of Environmental Sciences, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | - R S Prosser
- University of Guelph, School of Environmental Sciences, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
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25
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Crist MR. Rethinking the focus on forest fires in federal wildland fire management: Landscape patterns and trends of non-forest and forest burned area. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 327:116718. [PMID: 36565577 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116718] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2022] [Revised: 10/11/2022] [Accepted: 11/04/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
For most of the 20th century and beyond, national wildland fire policies concerning fire suppression and fuels management have primarily focused on forested lands. Using summary statistics and landscape metrics, wildfire spatial patterns and trends for non-forest and forest burned area over the past two decades were examined across the U.S, and federal agency jurisdictions. This study found that wildfires burned more area of non-forest lands than forest lands at the scale of the conterminous and western U.S. and the Department of Interior (DOI). In an agency comparison, 74% of DOI burned area occurred on non-forest lands and 78% of U.S. Forest Service burned area occurred on forested lands. Landscape metrics revealed key differences between forest and non-forest fire patterns and trends in total burned area, burned patch size, distribution, and aggregation over time across the western U.S. Opposite fire patterns emerged between non-forest and forest burns when analyzed at the scale of federal agency jurisdictions. In addition, a fire regime departure analysis comparing current large fire probability with historic fire trends identified certain vegetation types and locations experiencing more fire than historically. These patterns were especially pronounced for cold desert shrublands, such as sagebrush where increases in annual area burned, and fire frequency, size, and juxtaposition have resulted in substantial losses over a twenty-year period. The emerging non-forest fire patterns are primarily due to the rapid expansion of non-native invasive grasses that increase fuel connectivity and fire spread. These invasions promote uncharacteristic frequent fire and loss of native ecosystems at large-scales, accelerating the need to place greater focus on managing invasive species in wildland fire management. Results can be used to inform wildfire management and policy aimed at reducing uncharacteristic wildfire processes and patterns for both non-forest and forest ecosystems as well as identify differing management strategies needed to address the unique wildfire issues each federal agency faces.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michele R Crist
- Landscape Ecologist, U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Fire and Aviation Directorate, Boise, ID, 83705, USA.
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26
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Hawbaker TJ, Henne PD, Vanderhoof MK, Carlson AR, Mockrin MH, Radeloff VC. Changes in wildfire occurrence and risk to homes from 1990 through 2019 in the Southern Rocky Mountains,
USA. Ecosphere 2023. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4403] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/12/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Amanda R. Carlson
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology University of Wisconsin–Madison Madison Wisconsin USA
| | - Miranda H. Mockrin
- Northern Research Station U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Baltimore Maryland USA
| | - Volker C. Radeloff
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology University of Wisconsin–Madison Madison Wisconsin USA
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27
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Linde LR, Readhead A, Barry PM, Balmes JR, Lewnard JA. Tuberculosis Diagnoses Following Wildfire Smoke Exposure in California. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2023; 207:336-345. [PMID: 36103611 DOI: 10.1164/rccm.202203-0457oc] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Rationale: Wildfires are a significant cause of exposure to ambient air pollution in the United States and other settings. Although indoor air pollution is a known contributor to tuberculosis reactivation and progression, it is unclear whether ambient pollution exposures, including wildfire smoke, similarly increase risk. Objectives: To determine whether tuberculosis diagnosis was associated with recent exposure to acute outdoor air pollution events, including those caused by wildfire smoke. Methods: We conducted a case-crossover analysis of 6,238 patients aged ⩾15 years diagnosed with active tuberculosis disease between 2014 and 2019 in 8 California counties. Using geocoded address data, we characterized individuals' daily exposure to <2.5 μm-diameter particulate matter (PM2.5) during counterfactual risk periods 3-6 months before tuberculosis diagnosis (hazard period) and the same time 1 year previously (control period). We compared the frequency of residential PM2.5 exposures exceeding 35 μg/m3 (PM2.5 events) overall and for wildfire-associated and nonwildfire events during individuals' hazard and control periods. Measurements and Main Results: In total, 3,139 patients experienced 1 or more PM2.5 events during the hazard period, including 671 experiencing 1 or more wildfire-associated events. Adjusted odds of tuberculosis diagnosis increased by 5% (95% confidence interval, 3-6%) with each PM2.5 event experienced over the 6-month observation period. Each wildfire-associated PM2.5 event was associated with 23% (19-28%) higher odds of tuberculosis diagnosis in this time window, whereas no association was apparent for nonwildfire-associated events. Conclusions: Residential exposure to wildfire-associated ambient air pollution is associated with an increased risk of active tuberculosis diagnosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren R Linde
- Tuberculosis Control Branch, California Department of Public Health, Richmond, California.,School of Public Health and
| | - Adam Readhead
- Tuberculosis Control Branch, California Department of Public Health, Richmond, California
| | - Pennan M Barry
- Tuberculosis Control Branch, California Department of Public Health, Richmond, California
| | - John R Balmes
- School of Public Health and.,Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Joseph A Lewnard
- School of Public Health and.,College of Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California; and
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28
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Williams JN, Safford HD, Enstice N, Steel ZL, Paulson AK. High‐severity burned area and proportion exceed historic conditions in Sierra Nevada, California, and adjacent ranges. Ecosphere 2023. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4397] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- J. N. Williams
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy University of California Davis California USA
| | - H. D. Safford
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy University of California Davis California USA
- Vibrant Planet Incline Village Nevada USA
| | - N. Enstice
- California Department of Conservation Sacramento California USA
- California Sierra Nevada Conservancy Auburn California USA
| | - Z. L. Steel
- USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Fort Collins Colorado USA
| | - A. K. Paulson
- USDA Forest Service, Humboldt‐Toiyabe National Forest Sparks Nevada USA
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29
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De Palma‐Dow A, McCullough IM, Brentrup JA. Turning up the heat: Long‐term water quality responses to wildfires and climate change in a hypereutrophic lake. Ecosphere 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4271] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Ian M. McCullough
- Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Michigan State University East Lansing Michigan USA
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30
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Siegel KJ, Macaulay L, Shapero M, Becchetti T, Larson S, Mashiri FE, Waks L, Larsen L, Butsic V. Impacts of livestock grazing on the probability of burning in wildfires vary by region and vegetation type in California. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2022; 322:116092. [PMID: 36055100 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116092] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2021] [Revised: 07/27/2022] [Accepted: 08/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Wildfire activity has recently increased in California, impacting ecosystems and human well-being. California's rangelands are complex social-ecological systems composed of multiple ecosystems and the people who live and work in them. Livestock grazing has been proposed as a tool for reducing wildfire activity. Here, we explore how grazing affects wildfire at large spatial scales, assessing burn probability on rangelands with different grazing levels. We collected grazing data by surveying 140 large private landowners in three social-ecological regions: California's North Bay, Central Coast, and Central Valley and Foothills. Using pre-regression matching and mixed effects regression, we calculate the burn probability from 2001 to 2017 in points sampled from grazed and ungrazed properties in each region in grasslands, shrub/scrublands, and forests. We find that in the Central Coast and North Bay, annual burn probability decreases as stocking levels increase across all vegetation types, with reductions of 0.008-0.036. In the Central Valley and Foothills, the relationship is complex, with burn probability increasing over some grazing levels and variations in the effect of higher stocking densities. Our results indicate that livestock grazing may reduce annual burn probability in some regions and ecosystems in California, providing the first large-scale assessment of this relationship.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine J Siegel
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, & Management, University of California-Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.
| | - Luke Macaulay
- University of Maryland Extension, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
| | - Matthew Shapero
- University of California Cooperative Extension, Ventura County, CA, 93003-5401, USA
| | - Theresa Becchetti
- University of California Cooperative Extension, San Joaquin and Stanislaus Counties, CA, 95358, USA
| | - Stephanie Larson
- University of California Cooperative Extension, Sonoma County, CA, 95403, USA
| | - Fadzayi E Mashiri
- University of California Cooperative Extension, Mariposa and Merced Counties, CA, 95338, USA
| | - Lulu Waks
- Sonoma County Regional Parks, CA, 95403, USA
| | - Laurel Larsen
- Department of Geography, University of California-Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| | - Van Butsic
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, & Management, University of California-Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
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31
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Boaggio K, LeDuc SD, Rice B, Duffney P, Foley KM, Holder A, McDow S, Weaver CP. Beyond Particulate Matter Mass: Heightened Levels of Lead and Other Pollutants Associated with Destructive Fire Events in California. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2022; 56:14272-14283. [PMID: 36191257 PMCID: PMC10111611 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.2c02099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
As the climate warms, wildfire activity is increasing, posing a risk to human health. Studies have reported on particulate matter (PM) in wildfire smoke, yet the chemicals associated with PM have received considerably less attention. Here, we analyzed 13 years (2006-2018) of PM2.5 chemical composition data from monitors in California on smoke-impacted days. Select chemicals (e.g., aluminum and sulfate) were statistically elevated on smoke-impacted days in over half of the years studied. Other chemicals, mostly trace metals harmful to human health (e.g., copper and lead), were elevated during particular fires only. For instance, in 2018, lead was more than 40 times higher on smoke days on average at the Point Reyes monitoring station, due mostly to the Camp Fire, burning approximately 200 km away. There was an association between these metals and the combustion of anthropogenic material (e.g., the burning of houses and vehicles). Although still currently rare, these infrastructure fires are likely becoming more common and can mobilize trace metals in smoke far downwind, at levels generally unseen except in the most polluted areas of the country. We hope a better understanding of the chemicals in wildfire smoke will assist in the communication and reduction of public health risks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katie Boaggio
- ORISE Participant at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, 27709, USA
| | - Stephen D. LeDuc
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, 27709, USA
| | - Byron Rice
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, 27709, USA
| | - Parker Duffney
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, 27709, USA
| | - Kristen M. Foley
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, 27709, USA
| | - Amara Holder
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, 27709, USA
| | - Stephen McDow
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, 27709, USA
| | - Christopher P. Weaver
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, 27709, USA
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32
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Pereira JMC, Oom D, Silva PC, Benali A. Wild, tamed, and domesticated: Three fire macroregimes for global pyrogeography in the Anthropocene. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2022; 32:e2588. [PMID: 35334132 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2588] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2021] [Revised: 07/16/2021] [Accepted: 09/09/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Climate and natural vegetation dynamics are key drivers of global vegetation fire, but anthropogenic burning now prevails over vast areas of the planet. Fire regime classification and mapping may contribute towards improved understanding of relationships between those fire drivers. We used 15 years of daily active fire data from the MODIS fire product (MCD14ML, collection 6) to create global maps of six fire descriptors (incidence, size inequality, season length, interannual variability, intensity, and fire season modality). Using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) and hierarchical agglomerative clustering, we identified three fire macroregimes: Wild, Tamed, and Domesticated, each of which splitting into prototypical and transitional regimes. Interpretation of the six fire regimes in terms of their main drivers relied on the global maps of anthromes and Köppen climate types. The analysis yielded a two-dimensional space where the principal dimension of variability is primarily defined by interannual variability in fire activity and fire season length, and the secondary axis is based mainly on fire incidence. The Wild fire macroregime occurs mostly in cold wildlands, where burning is sporadic and fire seasons are short. Tamed fires predominate in seasonally dry tropical rangelands and croplands with high fire incidence. Domesticated fires are characteristic of humid, warm temperate and tropical croplands and villages with low fire incidence. The Tamed and Domesticated fire macroregimes, representing managed burning, account for 86% of all active fires in our dataset and for 70% of the global burnable area. Fourteen percent of active fires were found in the cold wildlands, and in the rangelands and forests of steppe and desert climates of the Wild macroregime. These results highlight the extent of human control over global pyrogeography in the Anthropocene.
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Affiliation(s)
- José M C Pereira
- Centro de Estudos Florestais, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Duarte Oom
- Centro de Estudos Florestais, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Pedro C Silva
- Centro de Estudos Florestais, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Akli Benali
- Centro de Estudos Florestais, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
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33
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Arkle RS, Pilliod DS, Germino MJ, Jeffries MI, Welty JL. Reestablishing a foundational species: Limitations on post‐wildfire sagebrush seedling establishment. Ecosphere 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4195] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Robert S. Arkle
- U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center Boise Idaho USA
| | - David S. Pilliod
- U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center Boise Idaho USA
| | - Matthew J. Germino
- U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center Boise Idaho USA
| | - Michelle I. Jeffries
- U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center Boise Idaho USA
| | - Justin L. Welty
- U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center Boise Idaho USA
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Spatial Predictions of Human and Natural-Caused Wildfire Likelihood across Montana (USA). FORESTS 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/f13081200] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
Spatial wildfire ignition predictions are needed to ensure efficient and effective wildfire response, and robust methods for modeling new wildfire occurrences are ever-emerging. Here, ignition locations of natural and human-caused wildfires across the state of Montana (USA) from 1992 to 2017 were intersected with static, 30 m resolution spatial data that captured topography, fuel availability, and human transport infrastructure. Once combined, the data were used to train several simple and multiple logistic generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) to predict the spatial likelihood of natural and human-caused ignitions. Increasingly more complex models that included spatial smoothing terms were better at distinguishing locations with and without natural and human-caused ignitions, achieving area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of 0.84 and 0.89, respectively. Whilst both ignition types were more likely to occur at intermediate fuel loads, as characterized by the local maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), naturally-ignited wildfires were more locally influenced by slope, while human-caused wildfires were more locally influenced by distance to roads. Static maps of ignition likelihood were verified by demonstrating that mean annual ignition densities (# yr−1 km−1) were higher within areas of higher predicted probabilities. Although the spatial models developed herein only address the static component of wildfire hazard, they provide a foundation upon which dynamic data can be superimposed to forecast and map wildfire ignition probabilities statewide on a timely basis.
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High and Low Air Temperatures and Natural Wildfire Ignitions in the Sierra Nevada Region. ENVIRONMENTS 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/environments9080096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
The Sierra Nevada region has experienced substantial wildfire impacts. Uncertainty pertaining to fire risk may be reduced by better understanding how air temperature (Ta: °C) influences wildfire ignitions independently of other factors. We linked lightning-ignited wildfires to Ta patterns across the region from 1992 to 2015 and compared monthly high- and low-air-temperature patterns between ignition and non-ignition locations at local scales (4 km). Regionally, more ignitions occurred in springs with a greater number of high-Ta months and fewer cool Ta months (analyzed separately) and in summers with fewer cool Ta months. Locally, summer ignition locations experienced warmer summer months on a normalized scale than non-ignition locations. The probability of a wildfire ignition was positively associated with a greater number of high-Ta months during and prior to fire seasons. Regionally, springs with a greater number of high-Ta months had more wildfire ignitions. Locally, as individual locations in the region experienced a greater number of high-Ta months preceding and including the fire season, they exhibited substantial increases in spring (+1446%), summer (+365%), and fall (+248%) ignitions. Thus, the frequent occurrence of high-Ta months is positively associated with lightning-ignited wildfires in the Sierra Nevada region.
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Navarro KM, Butler CR, Fent K, Toennis C, Sammons D, Ramirez-Cardenas A, Clark KA, Byrne DC, Graydon PS, Hale CR, Wilkinson AF, Smith DL, Alexander-Scott MC, Pinkerton LE, Eisenberg J, Domitrovich JW. The Wildland Firefighter Exposure and Health Effect (WFFEHE) Study: Rationale, Design, and Methods of a Repeated-Measures Study. Ann Work Expo Health 2022; 66:714-727. [PMID: 34919119 PMCID: PMC9203592 DOI: 10.1093/annweh/wxab117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2021] [Revised: 11/18/2021] [Accepted: 12/06/2021] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
The wildland firefighter exposure and health effect (WFFEHE) study was a 2-year repeated-measures study to investigate occupational exposures and acute and subacute health effects among wildland firefighters. This manuscript describes the study rationale, design, methods, limitations, challenges, and lessons learned. The WFFEHE cohort included fire personnel ages 18-57 from six federal wildland firefighting crews in Colorado and Idaho during the 2018 and 2019 fire seasons. All wildland firefighters employed by the recruited crews were invited to participate in the study at preseason and postseason study intervals. In 2019, one of the crews also participated in a 3-day midseason study interval where workplace exposures and pre/postshift measurements were collected while at a wildland fire incident. Study components assessed cardiovascular health, pulmonary function and inflammation, kidney function, workplace exposures, and noise-induced hearing loss. Measurements included self-reported risk factors and symptoms collected through questionnaires; serum and urine biomarkers of exposure, effect, and inflammation; pulmonary function; platelet function and arterial stiffness; and audiometric testing. Throughout the study, 154 wildland firefighters participated in at least one study interval, while 144 participated in two or more study interval. This study was completed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health through a collaborative effort with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Department of the Interior National Park Service, and Skidmore College. Conducting research in the wildfire environment came with many challenges including collecting study data with study participants with changing work schedules and conducting study protocols safely and operating laboratory equipment in remote field locations. Forthcoming WFFEHE study results will contribute to the scientific evidence regarding occupational risk factors and exposures that can impact wildland firefighter health over a season and across two wildland fire seasons. This research is anticipated to lead to the development of preventive measures and policies aimed at reducing risk for wildland firefighters and aid in identifying future research needs for the wildland fire community.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kathleen M. Navarro
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Western States Division, Denver, CO, USA,Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Division of Field Studies and Engineering, Cincinnati, OH, USA,Author to whom correspondence should be addressed. Tel: +1-303-236-5953;
| | - Corey R. Butler
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Western States Division, Denver, CO, USA,United States Department of the Interior, Denver, CO, USA
| | - Kenneth Fent
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Division of Field Studies and Engineering, Cincinnati, OH, USA
| | - Christine Toennis
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Health Effects Laboratory Division, Cincinnati, OH, USA
| | - Deborah Sammons
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Health Effects Laboratory Division, Cincinnati, OH, USA
| | - Alejandra Ramirez-Cardenas
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Western States Division, Denver, CO, USA
| | - Kathleen A. Clark
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Respiratory Health Division, Morgantown, VA, USA
| | - David C. Byrne
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Division of Field Studies and Engineering, Cincinnati, OH, USA
| | - Pamela S. Graydon
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Division of Field Studies and Engineering, Cincinnati, OH, USA
| | - Christa R. Hale
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Western States Division, Denver, CO, USA
| | - Andrea F. Wilkinson
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Division of Field Studies and Engineering, Cincinnati, OH, USA,First Responder Health and Safety Laboratory, Skidmore College, Saratoga Springs, NY, USA
| | - Denise L. Smith
- First Responder Health and Safety Laboratory, Skidmore College, Saratoga Springs, NY, USA
| | - Marissa C. Alexander-Scott
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Health Effects Laboratory Division, Cincinnati, OH, USA
| | - Lynne E. Pinkerton
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Division of Field Studies and Engineering, Cincinnati, OH, USA,Maximus, Attain, Falls Church, VA, USA
| | - Judith Eisenberg
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Division of Field Studies and Engineering, Cincinnati, OH, USA
| | - Joseph W. Domitrovich
- United States Forest Service, National Technology and Development Program, Missoula, MT, USA
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Sannigrahi S, Pilla F, Maiti A, Bar S, Bhatt S, Kaparwan A, Zhang Q, Keesstra S, Cerda A. Examining the status of forest fire emission in 2020 and its connection to COVID-19 incidents in West Coast regions of the United States. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 210:112818. [PMID: 35104482 PMCID: PMC8800502 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.112818] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2021] [Revised: 01/10/2022] [Accepted: 01/19/2022] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Forest fires impact on soil, water, and biota resources. The current forest fires in the West Coast of the United States (US) profoundly impacted the atmosphere and air quality across the ecosystems and have caused severe environmental and public health burdens. Forest fire led emissions could significantly exacerbate the air pollution level and, therefore, would play a critical role if the same occurs together with any epidemic and pandemic health crisis. Limited research is done so far to examine its impact in connection to the current pandemic. As of October 21, nearly 8.2 million acres of forest area were burned, with more than 25 casualties reported so far. In-situ air pollution data were utilized to examine the effects of the 2020 forest fire on atmosphere and coronavirus (COVID-19) casualties. The spatial-temporal concentrations of particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) and Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) were collected from August 1 to October 30 for 2020 (the fire year) and 2019 (the reference year). Both spatial (Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression) and non-spatial (Negative Binomial Regression) analyses were performed to assess the adverse effects of fire emission on human health. The in-situ data-led measurements showed that the maximum increases in PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 concentrations (μg/m3) were clustered in the West Coastal fire-prone states during August 1 - October 30, 2020. The average concentration (μg/m3) of particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) and NO2 was increased in all the fire states severely affected by forest fires. The average PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3) over the period were recorded as 7.9, 6.3, 5.5, and 5.2 for California, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington in 2019, increasing up to 24.9, 13.4, 25.0, and 17.0 in 2020. Both spatial and non-spatial regression models exhibited a statistically significant association between fire emission and COVID-19 incidents. Such association has been demonstrated robust and stable by a total of 30 models developed for analyzing the spatial non-stationary and local association. More in-depth research is needed to better understand the complex relationship between forest fire emission and human health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Srikanta Sannigrahi
- School of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin Richview, Clonskeagh, Dublin, D14 E099, Ireland.
| | - Francesco Pilla
- School of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin Richview, Clonskeagh, Dublin, D14 E099, Ireland
| | - Arabinda Maiti
- Department of Geography, Vidyasagar University, Midnapore, West Bengal, India
| | - Somnath Bar
- Department of Geoinformatics, Central University of Jharkhand, Ranchi, India
| | - Sandeep Bhatt
- Department of Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, India
| | - Ankit Kaparwan
- Department of Statistics, Hemvati Nandan Bahuguna Garhwal University, Srinagar, India
| | - Qi Zhang
- Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - Saskia Keesstra
- Team Soil, Water and Land Use, Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, Netherlands; Civil, Surveying and Environmental Engineering and Centre for Water Security and Environmental Sustainability, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, 2308, Australia
| | - Artemi Cerda
- Soil Erosion and Degradation Research Group, Department of Geography, Valencia University, Blasco Ibàñez, 28, 46010, Valencia, Spain
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Carlson AR, Helmers DP, Hawbaker TJ, Mockrin MH, Radeloff VC. The wildland-urban interface in the United States based on 125 million building locations. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2022; 32:e2597. [PMID: 35340097 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2597] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2021] [Revised: 11/09/2021] [Accepted: 12/21/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the focus of many important land management issues, such as wildfire, habitat fragmentation, invasive species, and human-wildlife conflicts. Wildfire is an especially critical issue, because housing growth in the WUI increases wildfire ignitions and the number of homes at risk. Identifying the WUI is important for assessing and mitigating impacts of development on wildlands and for protecting homes from natural hazards, but data on housing development for large areas are often coarse. We created new WUI maps for the conterminous United States based on 125 million individual building locations, offering higher spatial precision compared to existing maps based on U.S. census housing data. Building point locations were based on a building footprint data set from Microsoft. We classified WUI across the conterminous United States at 30-m resolution using a circular neighborhood mapping algorithm with a variable radius to determine thresholds of housing density and vegetation cover. We used our maps to (1) determine the total area of the WUI and number of buildings included, (2) assess the sensitivity of WUI area included and spatial pattern of WUI maps to choice of neighborhood size, (3) assess regional differences between building-based WUI maps and census-based WUI maps, and (4) determine how building location accuracy affected WUI map accuracy. Our building-based WUI maps identified 5.6%-18.8% of the conterminous United States as being in the WUI, with larger neighborhoods increasing WUI area but excluding isolated building clusters. Building-based maps identified more WUI area relative to census-based maps for all but the smallest neighborhoods, particularly in the north-central states, and large differences were attributable to high numbers of non-housing structures in rural areas. Overall WUI classification accuracy was 98.0%. For wildfire risk mapping and for general purposes, WUI maps based on the 500-m neighborhood represent the original Federal Register definition of the WUI; these maps include clusters of buildings in and adjacent to wildlands and exclude remote, isolated buildings. Our approach for mapping the WUI offers flexibility and high spatial detail and can be widely applied to take advantage of the growing availability of high-resolution building footprint data sets and classification methods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amanda R Carlson
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | - David P Helmers
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | - Todd J Hawbaker
- U.S. Geological Survey, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Denver, Colorado, USA
| | - Miranda H Mockrin
- Northern Research Station, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Volker C Radeloff
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
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39
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Margolis EQ, Guiterman CH, Chavardès RD, Coop JD, Copes‐Gerbitz K, Dawe DA, Falk DA, Johnston JD, Larson E, Li H, Marschall JM, Naficy CE, Naito AT, Parisien M, Parks SA, Portier J, Poulos HM, Robertson KM, Speer JH, Stambaugh M, Swetnam TW, Tepley AJ, Thapa I, Allen CD, Bergeron Y, Daniels LD, Fulé PZ, Gervais D, Girardin MP, Harley GL, Harvey JE, Hoffman KM, Huffman JM, Hurteau MD, Johnson LB, Lafon CW, Lopez MK, Maxwell RS, Meunier J, North M, Rother MT, Schmidt MR, Sherriff RL, Stachowiak LA, Taylor A, Taylor EJ, Trouet V, Villarreal ML, Yocom LL, Arabas KB, Arizpe AH, Arseneault D, Tarancón AA, Baisan C, Bigio E, Biondi F, Cahalan GD, Caprio A, Cerano‐Paredes J, Collins BM, Dey DC, Drobyshev I, Farris C, Fenwick MA, Flatley W, Floyd ML, Gedalof Z, Holz A, Howard LF, Huffman DW, Iniguez J, Kipfmueller KF, Kitchen SG, Lombardo K, McKenzie D, Merschel AG, Metlen KL, Minor J, O'Connor CD, Platt L, Platt WJ, Saladyga T, Stan AB, Stephens S, Sutheimer C, Touchan R, Weisberg PJ. The North American tree‐ring fire‐scar network. Ecosphere 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Ellis Q. Margolis
- New Mexico Landscapes Field Station U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center Santa Fe New Mexico USA
| | | | - Raphaël D. Chavardès
- Institut de recherche sur les forêts Université du Québec en Abitibi‐Témiscamingue Rouyn‐Noranda Québec Canada
| | - Jonathan D. Coop
- School of Environment and Sustainability Western Colorado University Gunnison Colorado USA
| | - Kelsey Copes‐Gerbitz
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
| | - Denyse A. Dawe
- Northern Forestry Centre Canadian Forest Service Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | - Donald A. Falk
- Laboratory of Tree‐Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson Arizona USA
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, ENR2 Building University of Arizona Tucson Arizona USA
| | | | - Evan Larson
- Department of Environmental Sciences and Society University of Wisconsin‐Platteville Platteville Wisconsin USA
| | - Hang Li
- Department of Earth and Environmental Systems Indiana State University Terre Haute Indiana USA
| | | | | | - Adam T. Naito
- Department of Earth, Environmental, and Geographical Sciences Northern Michigan University Marquette Michigan USA
| | - Marc‐André Parisien
- Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | - Sean A. Parks
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service Missoula Montana USA
| | - Jeanne Portier
- Forest Resources and Management Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland
| | - Helen M. Poulos
- College of the Environment Wesleyan University Middletown Connecticut USA
| | | | - James H. Speer
- Department of Earth and Environmental Systems Indiana State University Terre Haute Indiana USA
| | - Michael Stambaugh
- School of Natural Resources University of Missouri Columbia Missouri USA
| | - Thomas W. Swetnam
- Laboratory of Tree‐Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson Arizona USA
| | - Alan J. Tepley
- Canadian Forest Service Northern Forestry Centre Edmonton Alberta Canada
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute Front Royal Virginia USA
| | - Ichchha Thapa
- Department of Earth and Environmental Systems Indiana State University Terre Haute Indiana USA
| | - Craig D. Allen
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies University of New Mexico Albuquerque New Mexico USA
| | - Yves Bergeron
- Institut de recherche sur les forêts Université du Québec en Abitibi‐Témiscamingue Rouyn‐Noranda Québec Canada
- Département des Sciences Biologiques Université du Québec à Montréal Montreal Quebec Canada
| | - Lori D. Daniels
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
| | - Peter Z. Fulé
- School of Forestry Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona USA
| | - David Gervais
- Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Québec Québec Canada
| | | | - Grant L. Harley
- Department of Earth and Spatial Sciences University of Idaho Moscow Idaho USA
| | - Jill E. Harvey
- Department of Natural Resource Science Thompson Rivers University Kamloops British Columbia Canada
| | - Kira M. Hoffman
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
- Bulkley Valley Research Centre Smithers British Columbia Canada
| | - Jean M. Huffman
- Tall Timbers Research Station Tallahassee Florida USA
- Department of Biological Sciences Louisiana State University Baton Rouge Louisiana USA
| | - Matthew D. Hurteau
- Department of Biology University of New Mexico Albuquerque New Mexico USA
| | - Lane B. Johnson
- Cloquet Forestry Center University of Minnesota Cloquet Minnesota USA
| | - Charles W. Lafon
- Department of Geography Texas A&M University College Station Texas USA
| | - Manuel K. Lopez
- New Mexico Landscapes Field Station U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center Santa Fe New Mexico USA
| | | | - Jed Meunier
- Division of Forestry Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Madison Wisconsin USA
| | - Malcolm North
- USFS PSW Research Station Mammoth Lakes California USA
| | - Monica T. Rother
- Department of Environmental Sciences University of North Carolina‐Wilmington Wilmington North Carolina USA
| | - Micah R. Schmidt
- College of Forestry Oregon State University Corvallis Oregon USA
| | - Rosemary L. Sherriff
- Department of Geography, Environment and Spatial Analysis Humboldt State University Arcata California USA
| | | | - Alan Taylor
- Department of Geography and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute The Pennsylvania State University University Park Pennsylvania USA
| | - Erana J. Taylor
- Laboratory of Tree‐Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson Arizona USA
| | - Valerie Trouet
- Laboratory of Tree‐Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson Arizona USA
| | - Miguel L. Villarreal
- U.S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center Moffett Field California USA
| | - Larissa L. Yocom
- Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center Utah State University Logan Utah USA
| | - Karen B. Arabas
- Department of Environmental Science Willamette University Salem Oregon USA
| | - Alexis H. Arizpe
- Gregor Mendel Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna BioCenter Vienna Austria
| | - Dominique Arseneault
- Département de Biologie, Chimie et Géographie Université du Québec à Rimouski Rimouski Quebec Canada
| | | | - Christopher Baisan
- Laboratory of Tree‐Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson Arizona USA
| | - Erica Bigio
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science University of Nevada, Reno Reno Nevada USA
| | - Franco Biondi
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science University of Nevada, Reno Reno Nevada USA
| | | | - Anthony Caprio
- Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks Three Rivers California USA
| | | | - Brandon M. Collins
- Center for Fire Research and Outreach University of California Berkeley California USA
| | - Daniel C. Dey
- US Forest Service, Northern Research Station Columbia Missouri USA
| | - Igor Drobyshev
- Swedish Agricultural University, Southern Swedish Research Centre Uppsala Sweden
- Université du Québec en Abitibi‐Témiscamingue Rouyn‐Noranda Quebec Canada
| | | | | | - William Flatley
- Department of Geography University of Central Arkansas Conway Arkansas USA
| | | | - Ze'ev Gedalof
- Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics University of Guelph Guelph Ontario Canada
| | - Andres Holz
- Department of Geography Portland State University Portland Oregon USA
| | - Lauren F. Howard
- Department of Biology Arcadia University Glenside Pennsylvania USA
| | - David W. Huffman
- Ecological Restoration Institute Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona USA
| | - Jose Iniguez
- USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station Flagstaff Arizona USA
| | - Kurt F. Kipfmueller
- Department of Geography, Environment, and Society University of Minnesota Minneapolis Minnesota USA
| | | | - Keith Lombardo
- Southern California Research Learning Center San Diego California USA
| | - Donald McKenzie
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
| | | | | | - Jesse Minor
- University of Maine System Farmington Maine USA
| | - Christopher D. O'Connor
- Forestry Sciences Laboratory Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service Missoula Montana USA
| | - Laura Platt
- Department of Geography Portland State University Portland Oregon USA
| | - William J. Platt
- Department of Biological Sciences Louisiana State University Baton Rouge Louisiana USA
| | - Thomas Saladyga
- Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences Concord University Athens West Virginia USA
| | - Amanda B. Stan
- Department of Geography, Planning and Recreation Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona USA
| | - Scott Stephens
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management University of California, Berkeley Berkeley California USA
| | - Colleen Sutheimer
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin USA
| | - Ramzi Touchan
- Laboratory of Tree‐Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson Arizona USA
| | - Peter J. Weisberg
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science University of Nevada, Reno Reno Nevada USA
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40
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Shuman JK, Balch JK, Barnes RT, Higuera PE, Roos CI, Schwilk DW, Stavros EN, Banerjee T, Bela MM, Bendix J, Bertolino S, Bililign S, Bladon KD, Brando P, Breidenthal RE, Buma B, Calhoun D, Carvalho LMV, Cattau ME, Cawley KM, Chandra S, Chipman ML, Cobian-Iñiguez J, Conlisk E, Coop JD, Cullen A, Davis KT, Dayalu A, De Sales F, Dolman M, Ellsworth LM, Franklin S, Guiterman CH, Hamilton M, Hanan EJ, Hansen WD, Hantson S, Harvey BJ, Holz A, Huang T, Hurteau MD, Ilangakoon NT, Jennings M, Jones C, Klimaszewski-Patterson A, Kobziar LN, Kominoski J, Kosovic B, Krawchuk MA, Laris P, Leonard J, Loria-Salazar SM, Lucash M, Mahmoud H, Margolis E, Maxwell T, McCarty JL, McWethy DB, Meyer RS, Miesel JR, Moser WK, Nagy RC, Niyogi D, Palmer HM, Pellegrini A, Poulter B, Robertson K, Rocha AV, Sadegh M, Santos F, Scordo F, Sexton JO, Sharma AS, Smith AMS, Soja AJ, Still C, Swetnam T, Syphard AD, Tingley MW, Tohidi A, Trugman AT, Turetsky M, Varner JM, Wang Y, Whitman T, Yelenik S, Zhang X. Reimagine fire science for the anthropocene. PNAS NEXUS 2022; 1:pgac115. [PMID: 36741468 PMCID: PMC9896919 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2021] [Accepted: 08/02/2022] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical changes to ecosystems, fire danger is increasing, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Increasing fire danger is a vexing problem that requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, and inclusive partnerships to address. Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the "firehose" of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways toward mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jacquelyn K Shuman
- Terrestrial Sciences Section, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA
| | - Jennifer K Balch
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder,4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348 611 UCB, Boulder, CO, 80303, USA
| | - Rebecca T Barnes
- Environmental Studies Program, Colorado College, 14 East Cache la Poudre, Colorado Springs, CO, 80903, USA
| | - Philip E Higuera
- Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, 32 Campus Dr., Missoula, MT, 59812, USA
| | - Christopher I Roos
- Department of Anthropology, Southern Methodist University, P.O. Box 750336, Dallas, TX, 75275-0336, USA
| | - Dylan W Schwilk
- Department of Biological Sciences, Texas Tech University, 2901 Main St. Lubbock, TX, 79409-43131, USA
| | - E Natasha Stavros
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder,4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348 611 UCB, Boulder, CO, 80303, USA
| | - Tirtha Banerjee
- Samueli School of Engineering, University of California, 3084 Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering Building, UC Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | - Megan M Bela
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado at Boulder, 216 UCB, Boulder CO, 80309, USA
- NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Jacob Bendix
- Department of Geography and the Environment, Syracuse University, 144 Eggers Hall, Syracuse NY 13244, USA
| | - Sandro Bertolino
- Department of Life Sciences and Systems Biology, University of Turin, Via Accademia Albertina 13, 10123 Torino, Italy
| | - Solomon Bililign
- Department of Physics, North Carolina A&T State University, 1601 E Market Street, Greensboro, NC 27411, USA
| | - Kevin D Bladon
- Department of Forest Engineering, Resources, and Management, Oregon State University, 244 Peavy Forest Science Center; Corvallis, OR, 97331, USA
| | - Paulo Brando
- Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, 3215 Croul Hall Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | - Robert E Breidenthal
- Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, University of Washington, Box 352400, Seattle, WA 98195-2400, USA
| | - Brian Buma
- Integrative Biology, University of Colorado Denver, Campus Box 171, P.O. Box 173364, Denver, CO 80217-3364, USA
| | - Donna Calhoun
- Department of Mathematics, Boise State University, 1910 University Drive, Boise, ID 83725-1135, USA
| | - Leila M V Carvalho
- Department of Geography, University of California Santa Barbara, 1832 Ellison Hall, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA
| | - Megan E Cattau
- Human-Environment Systems, Boise State University, Boise State Environmental Research Building, 1295 W University Dr, Boise, ID 83706, USA
| | - Kaelin M Cawley
- National Ecological Observatory Network, Battelle, 1685 38th St., Suite 100, Boulder, CO 80301, USA
| | - Sudeep Chandra
- Global Water Center, University of Nevada, 1664 N. Virginia, Reno, NV, 89509, USA
| | - Melissa L Chipman
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Syracuse University, 317 Heroy Geology Building, 141 Crouse Dr, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
| | - Jeanette Cobian-Iñiguez
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of California Merced, Sustainability Research and Engineering, SRE 366, 5200 Lake Rd, Merced, CA 95343, USA
| | - Erin Conlisk
- Point Blue Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Dr, Petaluma, CA 94954, USA
| | - Jonathan D Coop
- Clark School of Environment and Sustainability, Western Colorado University, 1 Western Way, Gunnison CO 81231, USA
| | - Alison Cullen
- Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Parrington Hall, Mailbox 353055, Seattle, WA 98195-3055, USA
| | - Kimberley T Davis
- Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, 32 Campus Dr., Missoula, MT, 59812, USA
| | - Archana Dayalu
- Atmospheric and Environmental Research, 131 Hartwell Ave, Lexington MA 02421, USA
| | - Fernando De Sales
- Department of Geography, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, San Diego, CA 92182-4493, USA
| | - Megan Dolman
- Human-Environment Systems, Boise State University, Boise State Environmental Research Building, 1295 W University Dr, Boise, ID 83706, USA
| | - Lisa M Ellsworth
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences, Oregon State University, 104 Nash Hall, Corvallis, OR 97330, USA
| | - Scott Franklin
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Northern Colorado, 501 20th Street, Greeley, CO 80639, USA
| | - Christopher H Guiterman
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado at Boulder, 216 UCB, Boulder CO, 80309, USA
- NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 325 Broadway, NOAA E/GC3, Boulder, Colorado 80305-3337, USA
| | - Matthew Hamilton
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, The Ohio State University, 2021 Coffey Road, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
| | - Erin J Hanan
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada, 1664 N. Virginia St. Mail Stop 0186. Reno, NV 89509, USA
| | - Winslow D Hansen
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, PO Box AB, Millbrook, NY 12545, USA
| | - Stijn Hantson
- Earth System Science Program, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Max Planck Tandem Group in Earth System Science, Universidad del Rosario, Carrera 26 # 63b-48, Bogota, DC 111221, Colombia
| | - Brian J Harvey
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, UW-SEFS, Box 352100, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Andrés Holz
- Department of Geography, Portland State University, 1721 SW Broadway, Portland, OR 97201, USA
| | - Tao Huang
- Human-Environment Systems, Boise State University, Boise State Environmental Research Building, 1295 W University Dr, Boise, ID 83706, USA
| | - Matthew D Hurteau
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, MSC03 2020, Albuquerque, NM 87131, USA
| | - Nayani T Ilangakoon
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder,4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348 611 UCB, Boulder, CO, 80303, USA
| | - Megan Jennings
- Institute for Ecological Monitoring and Management, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, San Diego, CA 92182-4614, USA
| | - Charles Jones
- Department of Geography, University of California Santa Barbara, 1832 Ellison Hall, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA
| | | | - Leda N Kobziar
- College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, 1031 N. Academic Way Coeur d'Alene, ID 83844, USA
| | - John Kominoski
- Institute of Environment and Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, 11200 SW 8th Street, Miami, FL, 33199, USA
| | - Branko Kosovic
- Weather Systems and Assessment Program, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA
| | - Meg A Krawchuk
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Richardson Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
| | - Paul Laris
- Department of Geography, California State University Long Beach, Long Beach, 1250 Bellflower Blvd, Long Beach, CA 90840, USA
| | - Jackson Leonard
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S.D.A. Forest Service, 2500 S. Pine Knoll Dr. Flagstaff, Arizona 86001, USA
| | | | - Melissa Lucash
- Department of Geography, University of Oregon, 1251 University of Oregon, Eugene OR 97403-1251, USA
| | - Hussam Mahmoud
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, 1372 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, USA
| | - Ellis Margolis
- U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, New Mexico Landscapes Field Station, 15 Entrance Rd., Los Alamos, NM 87544, USA
| | - Toby Maxwell
- Department of Biological Sciences, Boise State University, 1910 University Dr. Boise ID 83725, USA
| | - Jessica L McCarty
- Department of Geography and Geospatial Analysis Center, Miami University, 217 Shideler Hall, Oxford, OH 45056, USA
| | - David B McWethy
- Department of Earth Sciences, Montana State University, 226 Traphagen Hall, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA
| | - Rachel S Meyer
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, 130 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA
| | - Jessica R Miesel
- Department of Plant, Soil and Microbial Sciences, Michigan State University, 1066 Bogue Street Rm A286, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA
| | - W Keith Moser
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S.D.A. Forest Service, 2500 S. Pine Knoll Dr. Flagstaff, Arizona 86001, USA
| | - R Chelsea Nagy
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder,4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348 611 UCB, Boulder, CO, 80303, USA
| | - Dev Niyogi
- Jackson School of Geosciences, and Cockrell School of Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 2305 Speedway Stop C1160, Austin, TX 78712-1692, USA
| | - Hannah M Palmer
- Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of California Merced, Merced, 5200 Lake Rd, Merced, CA 95343, USA
| | - Adam Pellegrini
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing St, Cambridge, CB2 3EA, UK
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt Road, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
| | - Kevin Robertson
- Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy, 13093 Henry Beadel Drive, Tallahassee, FL 32312, USA
| | - Adrian V Rocha
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, 100 Campus Dr., Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA
| | - Mojtaba Sadegh
- Department of Civil Engineering, Boise State University, 1910 University Drive, Boise, ID, 83725, USA
| | - Fernanda Santos
- Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, One Bethel Valley Road, P.O. Box 2008, MS-6038, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6038, USA
| | - Facundo Scordo
- Global Water Center and the Department of Biology, University of Nevada, 1664 N. Virginia, Reno, NV, 89509, USA
- Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía (IADO-CONICET-UNS), Florida 8000, Bahía Blanca, B8000BFW Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Joseph O Sexton
- terraPulse, Inc., 13201 Squires Ct., North Potomac, MD 20878, USA
| | - A Surjalal Sharma
- Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, 4296 Stadium Dr., Astronomy Dept Room 1113, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Alistair M S Smith
- Department of Earth and Spatial Sciences, College of Science, University of Idaho, 875 Perimeter Drive MS 3021, Moscow ID, 83843-3021, USA
- Department of Forest, Rangeland, and Fire Science, College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, 875 Perimeter Drive MS 1133, Moscow, ID 83844-1133, USA
| | - Amber J Soja
- NASA Langley Research Center, NASA, 2 Langley Blvd, Hampton, VA 23681, USA
- National Institute of Aerospace, NASA, 100 Exploration Way, Hampton, VA 23666, USA
| | - Christopher Still
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Richardson Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
| | - Tyson Swetnam
- Data Science Institute, University of Arizona, 1657 E Helen St, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Alexandra D Syphard
- Conservation Biology Institute, 10423 Sierra Vista Ave., La Mesa, CA, 91941, USA
| | - Morgan W Tingley
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, 621 Charles E Young Dr S #951606, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
| | - Ali Tohidi
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, San Jose State University, Room 310-K, ENG Building, 1 Washington Square, San Jose, CA 95112, USA
| | - Anna T Trugman
- Department of Geography, University of California Santa Barbara, 1832 Ellison Hall, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA
| | - Merritt Turetsky
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Campus Box 450, Boulder, CO 80309-0450, USA
| | - J Morgan Varner
- Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy, 13093 Henry Beadel Drive, Tallahassee, FL 32312, USA
| | - Yuhang Wang
- School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, 311 Ferst Drive, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA
| | - Thea Whitman
- Department of Soil Science, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1525 Observatory Dr., Madison, WI 53711, USA
| | - Stephanie Yelenik
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S.D.A. Forest Service, 920 Valley Road, Reno NV, 89512, USA
| | - Xuan Zhang
- Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of California Merced, Merced, 5200 Lake Rd, Merced, CA 95343, USA
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41
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Jaffe DA, Ninneman M, Chan HC. NO x and O 3 Trends at U.S. Non-Attainment Areas for 1995-2020: Influence of COVID-19 Reductions and Wildland Fires on Policy-Relevant Concentrations. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. ATMOSPHERES : JGR 2022; 127:e2021JD036385. [PMID: 35942329 PMCID: PMC9347947 DOI: 10.1029/2021jd036385] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2021] [Revised: 04/20/2022] [Accepted: 04/26/2022] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
We analyzed NO2 and O3 data from 32 U.S. non-attainment areas (NAAs) for 1995-2020. Since 1995, all regions have shown steady reductions in NO2 and the weekend-weekday pattern indicates that the O3 production regime in most NAAs has transitioned to a NOx-limited regime, while a few NAAs remain NOx-saturated. In the eastern U.S., all NAAs have made steady progress toward meeting the current (70 ppb) O3 standard, but this is less true in midwestern and western NAAs, with most showing little improvement in peak O3 concentrations since about 2010. Due to COVID-19 restrictions, NO2 concentrations were substantially reduced in 2020. In the eastern NAAs, we see significant reductions in both NO2 and peak O3 concentrations. In the midwestern U.S., results were more variable, with both higher and lower O3 values in 2020. In the western U.S. (WUS), we see variable reductions in NO2 but substantial increases in O3 at most sites, due to the influence from huge wildland fires. The recent pattern over the past decade shows that the large amount of wildland fires has a strong influence on the policy-relevant O3 metric in the WUS, and this is making it more difficult for these regions to meet the O3 standard.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel A. Jaffe
- School of STEMUniversity of Washington BothellBothellWAUSA
- Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Washington SeattleSeattleWAUSA
| | | | - Hei Chun Chan
- School of STEMUniversity of Washington BothellBothellWAUSA
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42
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Pai S, Carter TS, Heald CL, Kroll JH. Updated World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines Highlight the Importance of Non-anthropogenic PM 2.5. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY LETTERS 2022; 9:501-506. [PMID: 35719860 PMCID: PMC9202349 DOI: 10.1021/acs.estlett.2c00203] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2022] [Revised: 05/10/2022] [Accepted: 05/11/2022] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
The World Health Organization recently updated their air quality guideline for annual fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure from 10 to 5 μg m-3, citing global health considerations. We explore if this guideline is attainable across different regions of the world using a series of model sensitivity simulations for 2019. Our results indicate that >90% of the global population is exposed to PM2.5 concentrations that exceed the 5 μg m-3 guideline and that only a few sparsely populated regions (largely in boreal North America and Asia) experience annual average concentrations of <5 μg m-3. We find that even under an extreme abatement scenario, with no anthropogenic emissions, more than half of the world's population would still experience annual PM2.5 exposures above the 5 μg m-3 guideline (including >70% and >60% of the African and Asian populations, respectively), largely due to fires and natural dust. Our simulations demonstrate the large heterogeneity in PM2.5 composition across different regions and highlight how PM2.5 composition is sensitive to reductions in anthropogenic emissions. We thus suggest the use of speciated aerosol exposure guidelines to help facilitate region-specific air quality management decisions and improve health-burden estimates of fine aerosol exposure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sidhant
J. Pai
- Department
of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States
| | - Therese S. Carter
- Department
of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States
| | - Colette L. Heald
- Department
of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States
- Department
of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States
| | - Jesse H. Kroll
- Department
of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States
- Department
of Chemical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute
of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States
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43
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Barnes TA, Dwyer JF, Mojica EK, Petersen PA, Harness RE. Wildland fires ignited by avian electrocutions. WILDLIFE SOC B 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/wsb.1302] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Taylor A. Barnes
- Department of Geography and the Environment at the University of Denver Denver CO 80210 USA
| | - James F. Dwyer
- EDM International, Inc., 4001 Automation Way Fort Collins CO 80525 USA
| | | | - Paul A. Petersen
- EDM International, Inc., 4001 Automation Way Fort Collins CO 80525 USA
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44
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Heaney A, Stowell JD, Liu JC, Basu R, Marlier M, Kinney P. Impacts of Fine Particulate Matter From Wildfire Smoke on Respiratory and Cardiovascular Health in California. GEOHEALTH 2022; 6:e2021GH000578. [PMID: 35795228 PMCID: PMC9166629 DOI: 10.1029/2021gh000578] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2021] [Revised: 05/13/2022] [Accepted: 05/19/2022] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Increases in wildfire activity across the Western US pose a significant public health threat. While there is evidence that wildfire smoke is detrimental for respiratory health, the impacts on cardiovascular health remain unclear. This study evaluates the association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from wildfire smoke and unscheduled cardiorespiratory hospital visits in California during the 2004-2009 wildfire seasons. We estimate daily mean wildfire-specific PM2.5 with Goddard Earth Observing System-Chem, a global three-dimensional model of atmospheric chemistry, with wildfire emissions estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database. We defined a "smoke event day" as cumulative 0-1-day lag wildfire-specific PM2.5 ≥ 98th percentile of cumulative 0-1 lag day wildfire PM2.5. Associations between exposure and outcomes are estimated using negative binomial regression. Results indicate that smoke event days are associated with a 3.3% (95% CI: [0.4%, 6.3%]) increase in visits for all respiratory diseases and a 10.3% (95% CI: [2.3%, 19.0%]) increase for asthma specifically. Stratifying by age, we found the largest effect for asthma among children ages 0-5 years. We observed no significant association between exposure and overall cardiovascular disease, but stratified analyses revealed increases in visits for all cardiovascular, ischemic heart disease, and heart failure among non-Hispanic white individuals and those older than 65 years. Further, we found a significant interaction between smoke event days and daily average temperature for all cardiovascular disease visits, suggesting that days with high wildfire PM2.5 concentrations and high temperatures may pose greater risk for cardiovascular disease. These results suggest substantial increases in adverse outcomes from wildfire smoke exposure and indicate the need for improved prevention strategies and adaptations to protect vulnerable populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexandra Heaney
- Division of Environmental Health SciencesSchool of Public HealthUniversity of California, BerkeleyBerkeleyCAUSA
| | - Jennifer D. Stowell
- Department of Environmental HealthSchool of Public HealthBoston UniversityBostonMAUSA
| | | | - Rupa Basu
- California Office of Environmental Health Hazard AssessmentAir and Climate Epidemiology SectionOaklandCAUSA
| | - Miriam Marlier
- Department of Environmental Health SciencesUniversity of California, Los AngelesLos AngelesCAUSA
| | - Patrick Kinney
- Department of Environmental HealthSchool of Public HealthBoston UniversityBostonMAUSA
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45
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Braziunas KH, Abendroth DC, Turner MG. Young forests and fire: Using lidar–imagery fusion to explore fuels and burn severity in a subalpine forest reburn. Ecosphere 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Kristin H. Braziunas
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin USA
| | | | - Monica G. Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin USA
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46
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Hantson S, Andela N, Goulden ML, Randerson JT. Human-ignited fires result in more extreme fire behavior and ecosystem impacts. Nat Commun 2022; 13:2717. [PMID: 35581218 PMCID: PMC9114381 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30030-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2020] [Accepted: 04/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
California has experienced a rapid increase in burned area over the past several decades. Although fire behavior is known to be closely tied to ecosystem impacts, most analysis of changing fire regimes has focused solely on area burned. Here we present a standardized database of wildfire behavior, including daily fire rate-of-spread and fire radiative power for large, multiday wildfires in California during 2012–2018 using remotely-sensed active fire observations. We observe that human-ignited fires start at locations with lower tree cover and during periods with more extreme fire weather. These characteristics contribute to more explosive growth in the first few days following ignition for human-caused fires as compared to lightning-caused fires. The faster fire spread, in turn, yields a larger ecosystem impact, with tree mortality more than three times higher for fast-moving fires (>1 km day−1) than for slow moving fires (<0.5 km day−1). Our analysis shows how human-caused fires can amplify ecosystem impacts and highlights the importance of limiting human-caused fires during period of extreme fire weather for meeting forest conservation targets under scenarios of future change. ‘Human-caused fires and natural fires could have different impacts. Here the authors report a geospatial analysis of lightning-ignited and human-ignited fires in California between 2012 and 2018, finding that the latter were more likely to develop under extreme conditions with larger ecosystem impacts.’
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Affiliation(s)
- Stijn Hantson
- Geospatial Data Solutions Center, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697, USA. .,Faculty of Natural Sciences, Universidad del Rosario, Bogotá, Colombia.
| | - Niels Andela
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, Wales, UK.,Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, 20771, USA
| | - Michael L Goulden
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697, USA
| | - James T Randerson
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697, USA
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47
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Menezes LS, de Oliveira AM, Santos FLM, Russo A, de Souza RAF, Roque FO, Libonati R. Lightning patterns in the Pantanal: Untangling natural and anthropogenic-induced wildfires. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 820:153021. [PMID: 35026277 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2021] [Revised: 01/04/2022] [Accepted: 01/06/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The identification of fire causes and characteristics is of fundamental importance to better understand fire regimes and drivers. Particularly for Brazil, there is a gap in the quantification of lightning-caused fires. Accordingly, this work is a novel probabilistic assessment of the spatial-temporal patterns of lightning-ignited wildfires in the Pantanal wetland. Here, remote sensing information such as VIIRS active fires, MODIS burned area (BA) and STARNET lightning observations from 2012 to 2017, were combined to estimate the location, number of scars and amount of BA associated with atmospheric discharges on a seasonal basis. The highest lightning activity occurs during summer (December-February), and the lowest during winter (June-August). Conversely, the highest fire activity occurred during spring (September-November) and the lowest during autumn (March-May). Our analysis revealed low evidence of an association between fires and lightning, suggesting that human-related activities are the main source of ignitions. Weak evidence of natural-caused fire occurrence is conveyed by the low spatial-temporal match of lightning and fire throughout the studied period. Natural-caused fires accounted for only 5% of the annual total scars and 83.8% of the BA was human-caused. Most of the fires with extension larger than 1000 ha were not related to lighting. Lightning-fires seem an important element of the summer fire regime given that around half of the total BA during this season may be originated by lightning. By contrast, in the rest of the year the lightning-fires represent a minor percentage of the fire activity in the region. The density of lightning-ignited fires varies considerably, being higher in the north part of the Pantanal. This work provides a basis for a better understanding of lightning-related fire outbreaks in tropical ecosystems, particularly wetlands, which is fundamental to improve region-based strategies for land management actions, ecological studies and modeling climatic and anthropogenic drivers of wildfires.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucas S Menezes
- Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Aline M de Oliveira
- Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Filippe L M Santos
- Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Clima e Ambiente (CLIAMB), Instituto Nacional de Pesquisa da Amazônia (INPA) and Universidade do Estado do Amazonas (UEA), Manaus, AM, Brazil
| | - Ana Russo
- Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Rodrigo A F de Souza
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Clima e Ambiente (CLIAMB), Instituto Nacional de Pesquisa da Amazônia (INPA) and Universidade do Estado do Amazonas (UEA), Manaus, AM, Brazil; Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Escola Superior de Tecnologia, 69050-020 Manaus, AM, Brazil
| | - Fabio O Roque
- Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Caixa Postal 549, Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul CEP 79070-900, Brazil; Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science (TESS) and College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD 4878, Australia
| | - Renata Libonati
- Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal.
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48
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Abstract
Fires can have an anthropogenic or natural origin. The most frequent natural fire cause is lightning. Since anthropogenic and lightning fires have different climatic and socio-economic drivers, it is important to distinguish between these different fire causes. We developed random forest models that predict the fraction of anthropogenic and lightning fire incidences, and their burned area, at the level of the Nomenclature des Unités Territoriales Statistiques level 3 (NUTS3) for Europe. The models were calibrated using the centered log-ratio of fire incidence and burned area reference data from the European Forest Fire Information System. After a correlation analysis, the population density, fractional human land impact, elevation and burned area coefficient of variation—a measure of interannual variability in burned area—were selected as predictor variables in the models. After parameter tuning and running the models with several train-validate compositions, we found that the vast majority of fires and burned area in Europe has an anthropogenic cause, while lightning plays a significant role in the remote northern regions of Scandinavia. Combining our results with burned area data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, we estimated that 96.5 ± 0.9% of the burned area in Europe has an anthropogenic cause. Our spatially explicit fire cause attribution model demonstrates the spatial variability between anthropogenic and lightning fires and their burned area over Europe and could be used to improve predictive fire models by accounting for fire cause.
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49
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Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Thunderstorms’ Effects on Wildfire in Australia in 2017–2020 Using Data from the ISS LIS and MODIS Space-Based Observations. ATMOSPHERE 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos13050662] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/10/2022]
Abstract
The impact of thunderstorms on the wildfire situation in Australia in 2017–2020 was investigated using data from the ISS LIS and MODIS space-based observations. To determine lightning-caused wildfires, a Geographic Information System (GIS) method was carried out, which consisted of a combined investigation of the spatial and temporal distributions of strikes and ignition hotspots. The seasonal variability of thunderstorms and wildfire activity was analyzed. It was established that the maximum seasonal distribution of thunderstorm activity does not coincide with wildfire activity. The interannual changes in strikes were recorded, but this was not revealed for the major vegetation types. Of 120,829 flashes, recorded by the ISS LIS sensor, only 23 flashes could be characterized as lightning-caused wildfire events, i.e., the frequency of lightning ignition was equal to 0.00023 fires/stroke. The lightning ignitions usually took place along the boundary of a thunderstorm, in semiarid areas covered by open scrublands. During the dry Australian period (April–September), very few lightning events were detected by the ISS LIS sensor, while fire activity was quite high. Additionally, it was concluded that the impact of thunderstorms on the fire situation is too small to explain the numerous wildfires during the wet period.
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New seasonal pattern of pollution emerges from changing North American wildfires. Nat Commun 2022; 13:2043. [PMID: 35440561 PMCID: PMC9018720 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29623-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2020] [Accepted: 03/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Rising emissions from wildfires over recent decades in the Pacific Northwest are known to counteract the reductions in human-produced aerosol pollution over North America. Since amplified Pacific Northwest wildfires are predicted under accelerating climate change, it is essential to understand both local and transported contributions to air pollution in North America. Here, we find corresponding increases for carbon monoxide emitted from the Pacific Northwest wildfires and observe significant impacts on both local and down-wind air pollution. Between 2002 and 2018, the Pacific Northwest atmospheric carbon monoxide abundance increased in August, while other months showed decreasing carbon monoxide, so modifying the seasonal pattern. These seasonal pattern changes extend over large regions of North America, to the Central USA and Northeast North America regions, indicating that transported wildfire pollution could potentially impact the health of millions of people. Growing emissions from Pacific Northwest wildfires have increased atmospheric carbon monoxide in August, raising questions about potential health impacts as the seasonal pattern of air quality changes for large regions of North America.
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