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Wintemute GJ, Robinson SL, Crawford A, Tomsich EA, Reeping PM, Shev AB, Velasquez B, Tancredi D. Single-year change in views of democracy and society and support for political violence in the USA: findings from a 2023 nationally representative survey. Inj Epidemiol 2024; 11:20. [PMID: 38773542 PMCID: PMC11110245 DOI: 10.1186/s40621-024-00503-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2024] [Accepted: 05/03/2024] [Indexed: 05/24/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND A 2022 survey in the USA found concerningly high prevalences of support for and personal willingness to engage in political violence, of beliefs associated with such violence, and of belief that civil war was likely in the near future. It is important to determine the durability of those findings. METHODS Wave 2 of a nationally representative cohort survey was conducted May 18-June 8, 2023; the sample comprised all respondents to 2022's Wave 1. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions; changes from 2022 to 2023 are for respondents who participated in both surveys, based on aggregated individual change scores. RESULTS The completion rate was 84.2%; there were 9385 respondents. After weighting, 50.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.4%, 52.1%) were female; weighted mean (SD) age was 48.5 (25.9) years. About 1 in 20 respondents (5.7%, 95% CI 5.1%, 6.4%) agreed strongly/very strongly that "in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States," a 7.7% decrease. In 2023, fewer respondents considered violence to be usually/always justified to advance at least 1 of 17 specific political objectives [25.3% (95% CI 24.7%, 26.5%), a 6.8% decrease]. However, more respondents thought it very/extremely likely that within the next few years, in a situation where they consider political violence justified, "I will be armed with a gun" [9.0% (95% CI 8.3%, 9.8%), a 2.2% increase] and "I will shoot someone with a gun" [1.8% (95% CI 1.4%, 2.2%), a 0.6% increase]. Among respondents who considered violence usually/always justified to advance at least 1 political objective, about 1 in 20 also thought it very/extremely likely that they would threaten someone with a gun (5.4%, 95% CI 4.0%, 7.0%) or shoot someone (5.7%, 95% CI 4.3%, 7.1%) to advance such an objective. CONCLUSIONS In this cohort, support for political violence declined from 2022 to 2023, but predictions of firearm use in political violence increased. These findings can help guide prevention efforts, which are urgently needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Garen J Wintemute
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, CA, USA.
- Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA.
| | - Sonia L Robinson
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, CA, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Andrew Crawford
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, CA, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Elizabeth A Tomsich
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, CA, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Paul M Reeping
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, CA, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Aaron B Shev
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, CA, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Bradley Velasquez
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, CA, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Daniel Tancredi
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, CA, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
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Wintemute GJ, Crawford A, Robinson SL, Tomsich EA, Reeping PM, Schleimer JP, Pear VA. Firearm Ownership and Support for Political Violence in the United States. JAMA Netw Open 2024; 7:e243623. [PMID: 38592725 PMCID: PMC11004826 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.3623] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2023] [Accepted: 01/30/2024] [Indexed: 04/10/2024] Open
Abstract
Importance Little is known about support for and willingness to engage in political violence in the United States. Such violence would likely involve firearms. Objective To evaluate whether firearm owners' and nonowners' support for political violence differs and whether support among owners varies by type of firearms owned, recency of purchase, and frequency of carrying a loaded firearm in public. Design, Setting, and Participants This cross-sectional nationally representative survey study was conducted from May 13 to June 2, 2022, among US adult members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, including an oversample of firearm owners. Exposure Firearm ownership vs nonownership. Main Outcomes and Measures Main outcomes concern (1) support for political violence, in general and to advance specific political objectives; (2) personal willingness to engage in political violence, by severity of violence and target population; and (3) perceived likelihood of firearm use in political violence. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions and adjusted prevalence differences, with P values adjusted for the false-discovery rate and reported as q values. Results The analytic sample comprised 12 851 respondents: 5820 (45.3%) firearm owners, 6132 (47.7%) nonowners without firearms at home, and 899 (7.0%) nonowners with firearms at home. After weighting, 51.0% (95% CI, 49.9%-52.1%) were female, 8.5% (95% CI, 7.5%-9.5%) Hispanic, 9.1% (95% CI, 8.1%-10.2%) non-Hispanic Black, and 62.6% (95% CI, 61.5%-63.8%) non-Hispanic White; the mean (SD) age was 48.5 (18.0) years. Owners were more likely than nonowners without firearms at home to consider violence usually or always justified to advance at least 1 of 17 specific political objectives (owners: 38.8%; 95% CI, 37.3%-40.4%; nonowners: 29.8%; 95% CI, 28.5%-31.2%; adjusted difference, 6.5 percentage points; 95% CI, 4.5-9.3 percentage points; q < .001) but were not more willing to engage in political violence. Recent purchasers, owners who always or nearly always carry loaded firearms in public, and to a lesser extent, owners of assault-type rifles were more supportive of and willing to engage in political violence than other subgroups of firearm owners. Conclusions and Relevance In this study of support for political violence in the United States, differences between firearm owners and nonowners without firearms at home were small to moderate when present. Differences were greater among subsets of owners than between owners and nonowners. These findings can guide risk-based prevention efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Garen J. Wintemute
- Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento, California
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, California
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento
| | - Andrew Crawford
- Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento, California
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, California
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento
| | - Sonia L. Robinson
- Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento, California
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, California
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento
| | - Elizabeth A. Tomsich
- Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento, California
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, California
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento
| | - Paul M. Reeping
- Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento, California
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, California
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento
| | - Julia P. Schleimer
- Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento, California
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, California
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento
| | - Veronica A. Pear
- Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento, California
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, California
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento
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Holliday DE, Iyengar S, Lelkes Y, Westwood SJ. Uncommon and nonpartisan: Antidemocratic attitudes in the American public. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2313013121. [PMID: 38498713 PMCID: PMC10990094 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2313013121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2023] [Accepted: 01/29/2024] [Indexed: 03/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Democratic regimes flourish only when there is broad acceptance of an extensive set of norms and values. In the United States, fundamental democratic norms have recently come under threat from prominent Republican officials. We investigate whether this antidemocratic posture has spread from the elite level to rank-and-file partisans. Exploiting data from a massive repeated cross-sectional and panel survey ([Formula: see text] = 45,095 and 5,231 respectively), we find that overwhelming majorities of the public oppose violations of democratic norms, and virtually nobody supports partisan violence. This bipartisan consensus remains unchanged over time despite high levels of affective polarization and exposure to divisive elite rhetoric during the 2022 political campaign. Additionally, we find no evidence that elected officials' practice of election denialism encourages their constituents to express antidemocratic attitudes. Overall, these results suggest that the clear and present threat to American democracy comes from unilateral actions by political elites that stand in contrast to the views of their constituents. In closing, we consider the implications of the stark disconnect between the behavior of Republican elites and the attitudes of Republican voters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Derek E. Holliday
- Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
| | - Shanto Iyengar
- Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
| | - Yphtach Lelkes
- Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA19104
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Wintemute GJ, Robinson SL, Tomsich EA, Tancredi DJ. MAGA Republicans' views of American democracy and society and support for political violence in the United States: Findings from a nationwide population-representative survey. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0295747. [PMID: 38170700 PMCID: PMC10763974 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0295747] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2023] [Accepted: 11/27/2023] [Indexed: 01/05/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Identifying groups at increased risk for political violence can support prevention efforts. We determine whether "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) Republicans, as defined, are potentially such a group. METHODS Nationwide survey conducted May 13-June 2, 2022 of adult members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. MAGA Republicans are defined as Republicans who voted for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election and deny the results of that election. Principal outcomes are weighted proportions of respondents who endorse political violence, are willing to engage in it, and consider it likely to occur. FINDINGS The analytic sample (n = 7,255) included 1,128 (15.0%) MAGA Republicans, 640 (8.3%) strong Republicans, 1,571 (21.3%) other Republicans, and 3,916 (55.3%) non-Republicans. MAGA Republicans were substantially more likely than others to agree strongly/very strongly that "in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States" (MAGA Republicans, 30.3%, 95% CI 27.2%, 33.4%; strong Republicans, 7.5%, 95% CI 5.1%, 9.9%; other Republicans, 10.8%, 95% CI 9.0%, 12.6%; non-Republicans, 11.2%, 95% CI 10.0%, 12.3%; p < 0.001) and to consider violence usually/always justified to advance at least 1 of 17 specific political objectives (MAGA Republicans, 58.2%, 95% CI 55.0%, 61.4%; strong Republicans, 38.3%, 95% CI 34.2%, 42.4%; other Republicans, 31.5%, 95% CI 28.9%, 34.0%; non-Republicans, 25.1%, 95% CI 23.6%, 26.7%; p < 0.001). They were not more willing to engage personally in political violence. INTERPRETATION MAGA Republicans, as defined, are more likely than others to endorse political violence. They are not more willing to engage in such violence themselves; their endorsement may increase the risk that it will occur.
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Affiliation(s)
- Garen J. Wintemute
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Violence Prevention Research Program, and California Firearm Violence Research Center, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, California, United States of America
| | - Sonia L. Robinson
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Violence Prevention Research Program, and California Firearm Violence Research Center, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, California, United States of America
| | - Elizabeth A. Tomsich
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Violence Prevention Research Program, and California Firearm Violence Research Center, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, California, United States of America
| | - Daniel J. Tancredi
- Department of Pediatrics, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, California, United States of America
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Clark CS, Paluck EL, Westwood SJ, Sen M, Malhotra N, Jessee S. Effects of a US Supreme Court ruling to restrict abortion rights. Nat Hum Behav 2024; 8:63-71. [PMID: 37945806 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01708-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2022] [Accepted: 08/31/2023] [Indexed: 11/12/2023]
Abstract
Previous research focused on popular US Supreme Court rulings expanding rights; however, less is known about rulings running against prevailing public opinion and restricting rights. We examine the impact of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization opinion, which overturned Roe v. Wade's (1973) constitutional protection of abortion rights. A three-wave survey panel (5,489 interviews) conducted before the leak of the drafted Dobbs opinion, after the leak, and after the official opinion release, and cross-sectional data from these three time points (10,107 interviews) show that the ruling directly influenced views about the constitutional legality of abortion and fetal viability. However, personal opinions were not directly influenced and perceived social norms shifted away from the ruling, meaning that individuals perceived greater public support for abortion. We argue that extensive coverage of opposition to overturning Roe v. Wade supported this shift. Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization also caused large changes, polarized by party identification, in opinions about the Supreme Court.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chelsey S Clark
- Department of Psychology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
| | - Elizabeth Levy Paluck
- Department of Psychology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
- School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Sean J Westwood
- Department of Government, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA
- Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Maya Sen
- Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Neil Malhotra
- Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Stephen Jessee
- Department of Government, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
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Wintemute GJ, Robinson SL, Crawford A, Tancredi D, Schleimer JP, Tomsich EA, Reeping PM, Shev AB, Pear VA. Views of democracy and society and support for political violence in the USA: findings from a nationally representative survey. Inj Epidemiol 2023; 10:45. [PMID: 37770994 PMCID: PMC10540371 DOI: 10.1186/s40621-023-00456-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2023] [Accepted: 08/31/2023] [Indexed: 09/30/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Current conditions in the USA suggest an increasing risk for political violence. Little is known about the prevalence of beliefs that might lead to political violence, about support for and personal willingness to engage in political violence, and about how those measures vary with individual characteristics, lethality of violence, political objectives that violence might advance, or specific populations as targets. METHODS This cross-sectional US nationally representative survey was conducted on May 13 to June 2, 2022, of adult members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. Outcomes are weighted, population-representative proportions of respondents endorsing selected beliefs about American democracy and society and violence to advance political objectives. RESULTS The analytic sample included 8620 respondents; 50.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.3%, 51.7%) were female; and weighted mean (± standard deviation) age was 48.4 (± 18.0) years. Nearly 1 in 5 (18.9%, 95% CI 18.0%, 19.9%) agreed strongly or very strongly that "having a strong leader for America is more important than having a democracy"; 16.2% (95% CI 15.3%, 17.1%) agreed strongly or very strongly that "in America, native-born white people are being replaced by immigrants," and 13.7% (95% CI 12.9%, 14.6%) agreed strongly or very strongly that "in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States." One-third of respondents (32.8%, 95% CI 31.7%, 33.9%) considered violence to be usually or always justified to advance at least 1 of 17 specific political objectives. Among all respondents, 7.7% (95% CI 7.0%, 8.4%) thought it very or extremely likely that within the next few years, in a situation where they believe political violence is justified, "I will be armed with a gun"; 1.1% (95% CI 0.9%, 1.4%) thought it very or extremely likely that "I will shoot someone with a gun." Support for political violence and for the use of firearms in such violence frequently declined with increasing age, education, and income. CONCLUSIONS Small but concerning proportions of the population consider violence, including lethal violence, to be usually or always justified to advance political objectives. Prevention efforts should proceed urgently based on the best evidence available.
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Affiliation(s)
- Garen J Wintemute
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, CA, USA.
- Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA.
| | - Sonia L Robinson
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, CA, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Andrew Crawford
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, CA, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Daniel Tancredi
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, CA, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Julia P Schleimer
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, CA, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Elizabeth A Tomsich
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, CA, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Paul M Reeping
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, CA, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Aaron B Shev
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, CA, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Veronica A Pear
- UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, Sacramento, CA, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
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Sidik SM. How to tackle political polarization - the researchers trying to bridge divides. Nature 2023; 615:26-28. [PMID: 36859589 DOI: 10.1038/d41586-023-00573-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/03/2023]
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Hate crime supporters are found across age, gender, and income groups and are susceptible to violent political appeals. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2212757120. [PMID: 36745801 PMCID: PMC9963429 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2212757120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Hate crime is a pervasive problem across societies. Though perpetrators represent a small share of the population, their actions continue in part because they enjoy community support. But we know very little about this wider community of support; existing surveys do not measure whether citizens approve of hate crime. Focusing on Germany, where antiminority violence is entrenched, this paper uses original surveys to provide systematic evidence on the nature and impacts of hate crime support. Employing direct and indirect measures, I find that significant shares of the population support antirefugee hate crime and that the profile of supporters is broad, going much beyond common perpetrator types. I next use a candidate choice experiment to show that this support has disturbing political consequences: among radical right voters, hate crime supporters prefer candidates who endorse using gun violence against refugees. I conclude that a significant number of citizens empower potential perpetrators from the bottom-up and further legitimize hate crime from the top-down by championing violence-promoting political elites.
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Reply to Kalmoe and Mason: The pitfalls of using surveys to measure low-prevalence attitudes and behavior. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:e2207584119. [PMID: 35878008 PMCID: PMC9371739 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2207584119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
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A holistic view of conditional American support for political violence. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:e2207237119. [PMID: 35878010 PMCID: PMC9371686 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2207237119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
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Political violence and inaccurate metaperceptions. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:e2204045119. [PMID: 35507873 PMCID: PMC9171780 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2204045119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
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