The reversal of the gender gap in education and relative divorce risks: A matter of alternatives in partner choice?

Marriage survival in new married couples: A competing risks survival analysis

Background and aim

Marriage is one of the most important phenomena in human life. The survival of the marriage and the impact of various competing factors on the survival is of high importance. This study aimed at utilizing competing risks survival analysis to investigate the marriage survival of new couples in Tabriz.

Methods

In this longitudinal study, a number of 386 individuals who were married and divorced from 1991 to 2017, were selected by random sampling. The registered information was attained from the general registry office of Tabriz. Data analysis was carried out using the Lunn-McNeil procedure and the results were presented using an adjusted hazard ratio (AHR).

Results

The average age of marriage was about 23.9 (SD 6.6) years. The results of multivariate Lunn-McNeil models indicated that for the competing cause of having a relationship with another person (AHRs range: 1.12 to 2.03), the traditional mode of being familiar (AHRs range: 1.55 to 3.39), family weak role in choosing a wife/spouse (AHRs range: 0.25 to 3.25) and the role of moral-religious commitment (AHRs range: 0.37 to 0.47), along with other causes severed the risk of marriage survival reduction.

Conclusion

According to the results of this study in assessing competing risks, we conclude that the decline in marriage survival is a multifactorial phenomenon. Examining the survival of marriage in order to better understand all the dimensions and factors affecting this phenomenon and providing information to counselors and officials can play an important role in increasing marriage survival.

Mating Market and Dynamics of Union Formation

The paper investigates the relationship between structural partner market constraints and the timing and educational sorting of unions in Germany (1985–2018). We integrate the literature on the effect of the reversed gender gap in education on educational assortative mating, with a focus on mating dynamics and the measurement of the partner market over the life course. We concentrate on two particular educational groups, low-educated men and highly educated women, those with worsening mating prospects and more subject to experience hypogamous unions. Our results show that the local education-specific mating squeeze influences union formation, its timing, and educational sorting. Indeed, for the two groups, the increasing supply of highly educated women in the partner market increases the likelihood of remaining single or establishing an hypogamous union, where she is higher educated than he. In line with search theory, we find the effects of the mating squeeze to become particularly visible after people turn 30 years of age. This is true for the risk of remaining single and forming an hypogamous union. We underline the necessity to study assortative mating and union formation from a dynamic perspective, taking into account changing structural conditions during the partner search process.

Online Dating Is Shifting Educational Inequalities in Marriage Formation in Germany

Digital technologies govern a large part of our social lives, including the pursuit of a romantic partner. Despite recent inquiries into the social consequences of meeting online, what remains unclear is how the link between education and union formation varies in online versus offline meeting contexts, particularly on the backdrop of growing educational gaps in marriage. Using 2008-2019 pairfam data from Germany (N = 3,561), this study ran a series of Fine-Gray competing risks models to assess how online dating shapes the transition to marriage for partnered adults with nontertiary and tertiary education. Results reveal that irrespective of education, men in online-formed couples had greater chances of marrying than men in couples established offline. Highly educated women who met their partner in nondigital ways were less prone to marry than lower-educated women; for women in couples initiated online, however, the pattern was reversed. The internet dating marriage advantage of well-educated women was partly related to better matching on marriage attitudes and gender ideology. Facing a scarcity of eligible partners offline, high-educated women draw on more abundant online options to select more egalitarian-minded men. This study overall suggests that internet dating fosters an uneven distribution of opportunities for marriage, highlighting the role of digital partner markets in the social demography of union formation.

Male-Female Fertility Differentials Across 17 High-Income Countries: Insights From A New Data Resource

Obtaining cross-country comparative perspectives on male fertility has long been difficult, as male fertility is usually less well registered than female fertility. Recent methodological advancements in imputing missing paternal ages at childbirth enable us to provide a new database on male fertility. This new resource covers more than 330 million live births and is based on a consistent and well-tested set of methods. These methods allow us to handle missing information on the paternal age, which is missing for roughly 10% of births. The data resource is made available in the Human Fertility Collection and allows for the first time a comparative perspective on male fertility in high-income countries using high-quality birth register data. We analyze trends in male–female fertility quantum and tempo differentials across 17 high-income countries, dating as back as far as the late 1960s for some countries, and with data available for the majority of countries from the 1980s onward. Using descriptive and counterfactual analysis methods, we find substantial variation both across countries and over time. Related to the quantum we demonstrate that disparities between male and female period fertility rates are driven to a large degree by the interplay of parental age and cohort size differences. For parental age differences at childbirth, we observe a development toward smaller disparities, except in Eastern Europe. This observation fits with expectations based on gender theories. However, variation across countries also seems to be driven by factors other than gender equality.

The Gender Cliff in the Relative Contribution to the Household Income: Insights from Modelling Marriage Markets in 27 European Countries

In Western countries, the distribution of relative incomes within marriages tends to be skewed in a remarkable way. Husbands usually do not only earn more than their female partners, but there is also a striking discontinuity in their relative contributions to the household income at the 50/50 point: many wives contribute just a bit less than or as much as their husbands, but few contribute more. This 'cliff' has been interpreted as evidence that men and women avoid situations where a wife would earn more than her husband, since this would go against traditional gender norms. In this paper, we use a simulation approach to model marriage markets and demonstrate that a cliff in the relative income distribution can also emerge without such avoidance. We feed our simulations with income data from 27 European countries. Results show that a cliff can emerge from inequalities in men's and women's average incomes, even if they do not attach special meaning to a situation in which a wife earns more than her husband.

The impact of demographic change in the balance between formal and informal old-age care in Spain. Results from a mixed microsimulation–agent-based model

Changes in population and family structures are altering the provision of care for dependent older people. In Southern European countries like Spain, such care is still largely provided by family, typically spouses and adult daughters. However, an increasing proportion of women have entered the labour force, thereby affecting their availability. To study the demand and supply balance of informal care and to quantify the need for formal care when there is a deficit, we have developed a mixed microsimulation–agent-based model (ABM). Based on nuptiality, fertility and mortality levels of cohorts born at ten-year intervals between 1908 and 1968, the model starts with a microsimulation of the lifecycle of individuals and their close relatives until death. The ABM then determines the amount of time available or needed to care for family members, starting from age 50. Estimates are derived from Spanish survey data on employment, disability and time of care received. Surprisingly, results show that the family care deficit was greater in the older cohorts due to higher mortality and thus a greater impact of widowhood. However, for future elderly persons, we foresee that persistent below-replacement fertility and, paradoxically, the prolongation of the lifespan of couples will increase the demand for formal care as there will be more couples with both members incapacitated but without children to take care of them.

His and Her Education and Marital Dissolution: Adding a Contextual Dimension

Educationally hypogamous marriages, where the wife is more educated than the husband, have been expected to be less stable than other educational pairings, in part because they do not conform to social norms. With the reversal of the gender gap in education, such marriages have become more common than in the past. Recent research suggests that this new context might be beneficial for the stability of hypogamous unions compared to other educational pairings. Here, we investigate how educational matches in married couples are associated with divorce risks taking into account the local prevalence of hypogamy. Using Belgian census and register data for 458,499 marriages contracted between 1986 and 2001, we show that hypogamy was not associated with higher divorce rates than homogamy in communities where hypogamy was common. Against expectations, marriages in which the husband was more educated than the wife tend to exhibit the highest divorce rates. More detailed analysis of the different types of educational matches revealed that marriages with at least one highly educated partner, male or female, were less divorce prone compared to otherwise similar couple types.