Nomograms to predict survival outcomes after microwave ablation in elderly patients (>65 years old) with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma

The association of blood biomarkers with treatment response and adverse health outcomes in older patients with solid tumors: A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Blood biomarkers are potentially useful prognostic markers and may support treatment decisions, but it is unknown if and which biomarkers are most useful in older patients with solid tumors. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the evidence on the association of blood biomarkers with treatment response and adverse health outcomes in older patients with solid tumors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A literature search was conducted in five databases in December 2022 to identify studies on blood biomarkers measured before treatment initiation, not tumor specific, and outcomes in patients with solid tumors aged ≥60 years. Studies on any type or line of oncologic treatment could be included. Titles and abstracts were screened by three authors. Data extraction and quality assessment, using the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) checklist, were performed by two authors.

RESULTS

Sixty-three studies were included, with a median sample size of 138 patients (Interquartile range [IQR] 99-244) aged 76 years (IQR 72-78). Most studies were retrospective cohort studies (63%). The risk of bias was moderate in 52% and high in 43%. Less than one-third reported geriatric parameters. Eighty-six percent examined mortality outcomes, 37% therapeutic response, and 37% adverse events. In total, 77 unique markers were studied in patients with a large variety of tumor types and treatment modalities. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (20 studies), albumin (19), C-reactive protein (16), hemoglobin (14) and (modified) Glasgow Prognostic Score ((m)GPS) (12) were studied most often. The vast majority showed no significant association of these biomarkers with outcomes, except for associations between low albumin and adverse events and high (m)GPS with mortality.

DISCUSSION

Most studies did not find a significant association between blood biomarkers and clinical outcomes. The interpretation of current evidence on prognostic blood biomarkers is hampered by small sample sizes and inconsistent results across heterogeneous studies. The choice for blood biomarkers in the majority of included studies seemed driven by availability in clinical practice in retrospective cohort studies. Ageing biomarkers are rarely studied in older patients with solid tumors. Further research is needed in larger and more homogenous cohorts that combine clinical parameters and biomarkers before these can be used in clinical practice.

Safety and Feasibility of Microwave Ablation for Hepatocellular Carcinomas in the Elderly: A Systematic Review

Background

Microwave ablation (MWA) for hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) in the elderly has been the subject of new research in recent years. However, there are currently no strong lines of evidence for the prognosis following MWA treatment for HCC in the elderly. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review to assess the safety and feasibility of MWA for HCC in elderly patients.

Methods

Up until August 15, 2021, a comprehensive literature search was undertaken in PubMed, Scopus, CENTRAL (Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials), and Google Scholar databases for all published articles. Observational studies reporting the safety and feasibility of MWA for HCC in elderly patients were included. The Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to measure the quality assessment.

Results

Our review, composed of 7 observational studies, including a total of 7,683 HCC patients, looked at the safety and feasibility of MWA for HCC in the elderly. Current lines of evidence on the risks and outcomes of MWA of HCC treatments in elderly patients are discussed.

Conclusions

According to our findings, elderly patients, even those with a high comorbidity index, benefited from MWA of HCC similar to younger patients. More clinical data are needed to determine selection criteria for elderly HCC patients to increase the possibility of receiving MWA as a potential lifesaving option. As such, further studies evaluating the outcomes of MWA for HCC treatment modalities in elderly patients are warranted.

Systematic Review Registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/, identifier CRD42021273091.

A Web-Based Prediction Model for Cancer-Specific Survival of Elderly Patients With Early Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Study Based on SEER Database

Background: Primary liver cancer is a common malignant tumor primarily represented by hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The number of elderly patients with early HCC is increasing, and older age is related to a worse prognosis. However, an accurate predictive model for the prognosis of these patients is still lacking.

Methods: Data of eligible elderly patients with early HCC in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 2010 to 2016 were downloaded. Patients from 2010 to 2015 were randomly assigned to the training cohort (n = 1093) and validation cohort (n = 461). Patients' data in 2016 (n = 431) was used for external validation. Independent prognostic factors were obtained using univariate and multivariate analyses. Based on these factors, a cancer-specific survival (CSS) nomogram was constructed. The predictive performance and clinical practicability of our nomogram were validated. According to the risk scores of our nomogram, patients were divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. A survival analysis was performed using Kaplan–Meier curves and log-rank tests.

Results: Age, race, T stage, histological grade, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were independent predictors for CSS and thus were included in our nomogram. In the training cohort and validation cohort, the concordance indices (C-indices) of our nomogram were 0.739 (95% CI: 0.714–0.764) and 0.756 (95% CI: 0.719–0.793), respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) showed similar results. Calibration curves revealed high consistency between observations and predictions. In external validation cohort, C-index (0.802, 95%CI: 0.778–0.826) and calibration curves also revealed high consistency between observations and predictions. Compared with the TNM stage, nomogram-related decision curve analysis (DCA) curves indicated better clinical practicability. Kaplan–Meier curves revealed that CSS significantly differed among the three different risk groups. In addition, an online prediction tool for CSS was developed.

Conclusions: A web-based prediction model for CSS of elderly patients with early HCC was constructed and validated, and it may be helpful for the prognostic evaluation, therapeutic strategy selection, and follow-up management of these patients.

A Radiomics Nomogram for Preoperative Prediction of Early Recurrence of Small Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Surgical Resection or Radiofrequency Ablation

Background

Patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (3 cm) still have a poor prognosis. The purpose of this study was to develop a radiomics nomogram to preoperatively predict early recurrence (ER) (2 years) of small HCC.

Methods

The study population included 111 patients with small HCC who underwent surgical resection (SR) or radiofrequency ablation (RFA) between September 2015 and September 2018 and were followed for at least 2 years. Radiomic features were extracted from the entire tumor by using the MaZda software. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASS0) method was applied for feature selection, and radiomics signature construction. A rad-score was then calculated. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to establish a prediction model including independent clinical risk factors, radiologic features and rad-score, which was ultimately presented as a radiomics nomogram. The predictive ability of the nomogram was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and internal validation was performed via bootstrap resampling and 5-fold cross-validation method.

Results

A total of 53 (53/111, 47.7%) patients had confirmed ER according to the final clinical outcomes. In univariate logistic regression analysis, cirrhosis and hepatitis B infection (P=0.015 and 0.083, respectively), hepatobiliary phase hypointensity (P=0.089), Child-Pugh score (P=0.083), the preoperative platelet count (P=0.003), and rad-score (P<0.001) were correlated with ER. However, after multivariate logistic regression analysis, only the preoperative platelet count and rad-score were included as predictors in the final model. The area under ROC curve (AUC) of the radiomics nomogram to predict ER of small HCC was 0.981 (95% CI: 0.957, 1.00), while the AUC verified by bootstrap is 0.980 (95% CI: 0.962, 1.00), indicating the goodness-of-fit of the final model.

Conclusions

The radiomics nomogram containing the clinical risk factors and rad-score can be used as a quantitative tool to preoperatively predict individual probability of ER of small HCC.

A Nomogram to Predict Regrowth After Ultrasound-Guided Radiofrequency Ablation for Benign Thyroid Nodules

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a nomogram to predict regrowth for patients with benign thyroid nodules undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA).

METHODS

A total of 200 patients with 220 benign thyroid nodules who underwent RFA were included in this respective study. After RFA, patients were followed up at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months, and every 12 months thereafter. Regrowth was defined as an increase in nodule volume 50% over the previously recorded smallest volume. A nomogram was developed based on the variables identified by multivariate logistic regression and the model performance was evaluated by discrimination(concordance index) and calibration curves.

RESULTS

The incidence of regrowth was 13.64% (30/220) after a mean follow-up period of 27.43 ± 17.99 months. Multivariate logistic regression revealed initial volume (OR = 1.047, 95%CI 1.020-1.075), vascularity (OR = 2.037, 95%CI 1.218-3.404), and location close to critical structure (OR = 4.713, 95%CI 1.817-12.223) were independent factors associated with regrowth. The prognostic nomogram incorporating these three factors achieved good calibration and discriminatory abilities with a concordance index of 0.779 (95%CI 0.686-0.872).

CONCLUSIONS

A prognostic nomogram was successfully developed to predict nodule regrowth after RFA, which might guide physician in stratifying patients and provide precise guidance for individualized treatment protocols.