Six global and local QSPR models of aqueous solubility at pH = 7.4 based on structural similarity and physicochemical descriptors

Transparency in Modeling through Careful Application of OECD's QSAR/QSPR Principles via a Curated Water Solubility Data Set

The need for careful assembly, training, and validation of quantitative structure-activity/property models (QSAR/QSPR) is more significant than ever as data sets become larger and sophisticated machine learning tools become increasingly ubiquitous and accessible to the scientific community. Regulatory agencies such as the United States Environmental Protection Agency must carefully scrutinize each aspect of a resulting QSAR/QSPR model to determine its potential use in environmental exposure and hazard assessment. Herein, we revisit the goals of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in our application and discuss the validation principles for structure-activity models. We apply these principles to a model for predicting water solubility of organic compounds derived using random forest regression, a common machine learning approach in the QSA/PR literature. Using public sources, we carefully assembled and curated a data set consisting of 10,200 unique chemical structures with associated water solubility measurements. This data set was then used as a focal narrative to methodically consider the OECD's QSA/PR principles and how they can be applied to random forests. Despite some expert, mechanistically informed supervision of descriptor selection to enhance model interpretability, we achieved a model of water solubility with comparable performance to previously published models (5-fold cross validated performance 0.81 R2 and 0.98 RMSE). We hope this work will catalyze a necessary conversation around the importance of cautiously modernizing and explicitly leveraging OECD principles while pursuing state-of-the-art machine learning approaches to derive QSA/PR models suitable for regulatory consideration.

ADME prediction with KNIME: In silico aqueous solubility consensus model based on supervised recursive random forest approaches

In-silico prediction of aqueous solubility plays an important role during the drug discovery and development processes. For many years, the limited performance of in-silico solubility models has been attributed to the lack of high-quality solubility data for pharmaceutical molecules. However, some studies suggest that the poor accuracy of solubility prediction is not related to the quality of the experimental data and that more precise methodologies (algorithms and/or set of descriptors) are required for predicting aqueous solubility for pharmaceutical molecules. In this study a large and diverse database was generated with aqueous solubility values collected from two public sources; two new recursive machine-learning approaches were developed for data cleaning and variable selection, and a consensus model based on regression and classification algorithms was created. The modeling protocol, which includes the curation of chemical and experimental data, was implemented in KNIME, with the aim of obtaining an automated workflow for the prediction of new databases. Finally, we compared several methods or models available in the literature with our consensus model, showing results comparable or even outperforming previous published models.

Aqueous Drug Solubility: What Do We Measure, Calculate and QSPR Predict?

Detailed critical analysis of publications devoted to QSPR of aqueous solubility is presented in the review with discussion of four types of aqueous solubility (three different thermodynamic solubilities with unknown solute structure, intrinsic solubility, solubility in physiological media at pH=7.4 and kinetic solubility), variety of molecular descriptors (from topological to quantum chemical), traditional statistical and machine learning methods as well as original QSPR models.