Application of fuzzy fault tree analysis based on modified fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS for fire and explosion in the process industry

Neurophysiological Assessment of An Innovative Maritime Safety System in Terms of Ship Operators' Mental Workload, Stress, and Attention in the Full Mission Bridge Simulator

The current industrial environment relies heavily on maritime transportation. Despite the continuous technological advances for the development of innovative safety software and hardware systems, there is a consistent gap in the scientific literature regarding the objective evaluation of the performance of maritime operators. The human factor is profoundly affected by changes in human performance or psychological state. The difficulty lies in the fact that the technology, tools, and protocols for investigating human performance are not fully mature or suitable for experimental investigation. The present research aims to integrate these two concepts by (i) objectively characterizing the psychological state of mariners, i.e., mental workload, stress, and attention, through their electroencephalographic (EEG) signal analysis, and (ii) validating an innovative safety framework countermeasure, defined as Human Risk-Informed Design (HURID), through the aforementioned neurophysiological approach. The proposed study involved 26 mariners within a high-fidelity bridge simulator while encountering collision risk in congested waters with and without the HURID. Subjective, behavioral, and neurophysiological data, i.e., EEG, were collected throughout the experimental activities. The results showed that the participants experienced a statistically significant higher mental workload and stress while performing the maritime activities without the HURID, while their attention level was statistically lower compared to the condition in which they performed the experiments with the HURID (all p < 0.05). Therefore, the presented study confirmed the effectiveness of the HURID during maritime operations in critical scenarios and led the way to extend the neurophysiological evaluation of the HFs of maritime operators during the performance of critical and/or standard shipboard tasks.

From Corrective to Predictive Maintenance-A Review of Maintenance Approaches for the Power Industry

Appropriate maintenance of industrial equipment keeps production systems in good health and ensures the stability of production processes. In specific production sectors, such as the electrical power industry, equipment failures are rare but may lead to high costs and substantial economic losses not only for the power plant but for consumers and the larger society. Therefore, the power production industry relies on a variety of approaches to maintenance tasks, ranging from traditional solutions and engineering know-how to smart, AI-based analytics to avoid potential downtimes. This review shows the evolution of maintenance approaches to support maintenance planning, equipment monitoring and supervision. We present older techniques traditionally used in maintenance tasks and those that rely on IT analytics to automate tasks and perform the inference process for failure detection. We analyze prognostics and health-management techniques in detail, including their requirements, advantages and limitations. The review focuses on the power-generation sector. However, some of the issues addressed are common to other industries. The article also presents concepts and solutions that utilize emerging technologies related to Industry 4.0, touching on prescriptive analysis, Big Data and the Internet of Things. The primary motivation and purpose of the article are to present the existing practices and classic methods used by engineers, as well as modern approaches drawing from Artificial Intelligence and the concept of Industry 4.0. The summary of existing practices and the state of the art in the area of predictive maintenance provides two benefits. On the one hand, it leads to improving processes by matching existing tools and methods. On the other hand, it shows researchers potential directions for further analysis and new developments.

Causal Analysis and Prevention Measures for Extreme Heavy Rainstorms in Zhengzhou to Protect Human Health

This study focused on the extreme heavy rainstorm that occurred in Zhengzhou in July 2021; approximately 380 people were killed or missing as a result of this storm. To investigate the evolution behaviors of this rainstorm and take corresponding prevention measures, several methods and models were adopted, including cloud modeling, preliminary hazard analysis (PHA), fault tree analysis (FTA), bow-tie modeling, and chaos theory. The main reasons for this rainstorm can be divided into the following three aspects: force majeure, such as terrain and extreme weather conditions, issues with city construction, and insufficient emergency rescue. The secondary disasters caused by this rainstorm mainly include urban water logging, river flooding, and mountain torrents and landslides. The main causes of the subway line-5 accident that occurred can be described as follows: the location of the stabling yard was low, the relevant rules and regulations of the subway were not ideal, insufficient attention was given to the early warning information, and the emergency response mechanism was not ideal. Rainstorms result from the cross-coupling of faults in humans, objects, the environment, and management subsystems, and the evolution process shows an obvious butterfly effect. To prevent disasters caused by rainstorms, the following suggestions should be adopted: vigorously improve the risk awareness and emergency response capabilities of leading cadres, improve the overall level of urban disaster prevention and mitigation, reinforce the existing reservoirs in the city, strengthen the construction of sponge cities, and improve the capacity of urban disaster emergency rescue.

Study on quantification scheme of weight coefficient for electrical fire risk assessment of high-rise building

Electrical fire is a very important fire type in high-rise building fire. Therefore, it has high research value for risk assessment of electric fire in high-rise buildings. However, it is difficult to accurately obtain the weight index coefficient of electrical fire risk assessment by single qualitative or quantitative risk assessment method, so the reliability and objectivity of electrical fire risk assessment cannot be guarantee. In order to solve this problem, a method of using numerical simulation to obtain different types of fire risk data is proposed. Then, taking fire risk influencing factors as the research object, a comprehensive fire risk evaluation system is established. Through the comprehensive evaluation system, the electrical fire risk data are evaluated to determine the electrical fire risk weight coefficient. The results show that the fire risk quantification scheme of weight coefficient proposed in this paper can eliminate the subjectivity of traditional expert ratings. The proposed evaluation standard is a comprehensive evaluation system based on the numerical simulation and analytic hierarchy process. Above mentioned method can improve the reliability and accuracy of the weight coefficient of electrical fire risk assessment, and provide a theoretical basis for the research and classification of fire risk.

An Integrated Fuzzy Fault Tree Model with Bayesian Network-Based Maintenance Optimization of Complex Equipment in Automotive Manufacturing

Process integrity, insufficient data, and system complexity in the automotive manufacturing sector are the major uncertainty factors used to predict failure probability (FP), and which are very influential in achieving a reliable maintenance program. To deal with such uncertainties, this study proposes a fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) approach as a proactive knowledge-based technique to estimate the FP towards a convenient maintenance plan in the automotive manufacturing industry. Furthermore, in order to enhance the accuracy of the FFTA model in predicting FP, the effective decision attributes, such as the experts’ trait impacts; scales variation; and assorted membership, and the defuzzification functions were investigated. Moreover, due to the undynamic relationship between the failures of complex systems in the current FFTA model, a Bayesian network (BN) theory was employed. The results of the FFTA model revealed that the changes in various decision attributes were not statistically significant for FP variation, while the BN model, that considered conditional rules to reflect the dynamic relationship between the failures, had a greater impact on predicting the FP. Additionally, the integrated FFTA–BN model was used in the optimization model to find the optimal maintenance intervals according to the estimated FP and total expected cost. As a case study, the proposed model was implemented in a fluid filling system in an automotive assembly line. The FPs of the entire system and its three critical subsystems, such as the filling headset, hydraulic–pneumatic circuit, and the electronic circuit, were estimated as 0.206, 0.057, 0.065, and 0.129, respectively. Moreover, the optimal maintenance interval for the whole filling system considering the total expected costs was determined as 7th with USD 3286 during 5000 h of the operation time.

Importance-Based Key Basic Event Identification and Evolution Mechanism Investigation of Hydraulic Support Failure to Protect Employee Health

Background: Although hydraulic support can help enterprises in their production activities, it can also cause fatal accidents. Methods: This study established a composite risk-assessment method for hydraulic support failure in the mining industry. The key basic event of hydraulic support failure was identified based on fault tree analysis and gray relational analysis, and the evolution mechanism of hydraulic support failure was investigated based on chaos theory, a synthetic theory model, and cause-and-effect-layer-of-protection analysis (LOPA). Results: After the basic events of hydraulic support failure are identified based on fault tree analysis, structure importance (SI), probability importance (PI), critical importance (CI), and Fussell–Vesely importance (FVI) can be calculated. In this study, we proposed the Fussell–Vesely–Xu importance (FVXI) to reflect the comprehensive impact of basic event occurrence and nonoccurrence on the occurrence probability of the top event. Gray relational analysis was introduced to determine the integrated importance (II) of basic events and identify the key basic events. According to chaos theory, hydraulic support failure is the result of cross-coupling and infinite amplification of faults in the employee, object, environment, and management subsystems, and the evolutionary process has an obvious butterfly effect and inherent randomness. With the help of the synthetic theory model, we investigated the social and organizational factors that may lead to hydraulic support failure. The key basic event, jack leakage, was analyzed in depth based on cause-and-effect-LOPA, and corresponding independent protection layers (IPLs) were identified to prevent jack leakage. Implications: The implications of these findings with respect to hydraulic support failure can be regarded as the foundation for accident prevention in practice.

Enhancing healthcare supply chain resilience: decision-making in a fuzzy environment

Purpose

Resilience is a fundamental component of healthcare supply chains, as the quality and endurance of human life are dependent on them. However, there are numerous resilience-building measures, and there is a need for prioritization of those strategies. This research study aims to prioritize resilience strategies for healthcare supply chains while considering the risks that most severe, probable to occur and have the lengthiest periods of recovery.

Design/methodology/approach

This research study has used multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques for analysis. Initially, the criteria for prioritization of risks, i.e. severity, probability of occurrence and recovery time were assigned with importance weights through the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Then, these weights were used in the fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPIS) analysis for prioritization of risks. Subsequently, the identified risks were used for highlighting the appropriate resilience strategies through the fuzzy quality function deployment (QFD) technique.

Findings

Results indicate that Industry 4.0, multiple sourcing, risk awareness, agility and global diversification of suppliers, markets and operations are the most significant resilience strategies.

Research limitations/implications

This study's limitation is that it is conducted in a general perspective, rather than reducing the context to a developing or developed country. Different areas have variable market factors, due to which potential risks occur in a different form. Moreover, resilience strategies work differently in different environments. Therefore, for future endeavors, the studies should be carried out in a limited context.

Originality/value

This research study proposes a novel MCDM-based approach for ranking resilience strategies, in light of the most probable, severe and long-lasting risks. In addition, this approach has been employed for the enhancement of resilience in healthcare supply chains.

MAVSCOT: A fuzzy logic-based HIV diagnostic system with indigenous multi-lingual interfaces for rural Africa

HIV still constitutes a major public health problem in Africa, where the highest incidence and prevalence of the disease can be found in many rural areas, with multiple indigenous languages being used for communication by locals. In many rural areas of the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) in South Africa, for instance, the most widely used languages include Zulu and Xhosa, with only limited comprehension in English and Afrikaans. Health care practitioners for HIV diagnosis and treatment, often, cannot communicate efficiently with their indigenous ethnic patients. An informatics tool is urgently needed to facilitate these health care professionals for better communication with their patients during HIV diagnosis. Here, we apply fuzzy logic and speech technology and develop a fuzzy logic HIV diagnostic system with indigenous multi-lingual interfaces, named Multi-linguAl HIV indigenouS fuzzy logiC-based diagnOstic sysTem (MAVSCOT). This HIV multilingual informatics software can facilitate the diagnosis in underprivileged rural African communities. We provide examples on how MAVSCOT can be applied towards HIV diagnosis by using existing data from the literature. Compared to other similar tools, MAVSCOT can perform better due to its implementation of the fuzzy logic. We hope MAVSCOT would help health care practitioners working in indigenous communities of many African countries, to efficiently diagnose HIV and ultimately control its transmission.

Statistical Analysis and Prediction of Fatal Accidents in the Metallurgical Industry in China

The metallurgical industry is a significant component of the national economy. The main purpose of this study was to establish a composite risk analysis method for fatal accidents in the metallurgical industry. We collected 152 fatal accidents in the Chinese metallurgical industry from 2001 to 2018, including 141 major accidents, 10 severe accidents, and 1 extraordinarily severe accident, together resulting in 731 deaths. Different from traffic or chemical industry accidents, most of the accidents in the metallurgical industry are poisoning and asphyxiation accidents, which account for 40% of the total number of fatal accidents. As the original statistical data of fatal accidents in the metallurgical industry have irregular fluctuations, the traditional prediction methods, such as linear or quadratic regression models, cannot be used to predict their future characteristics. To overcome this issue, the grey interval predicting method and the GM(1,1) model of grey system theory are introduced to predict the future characteristics of fatal accidents in the metallurgical industry. Different from a fault tree analysis or event tree analysis, the bow tie model integrates the basic causes, possible consequences, and corresponding safety measures of an accident in a transparent diagram. In this study, the bow tie model was used to identify the causes and consequences of fatal accidents in the metallurgical industry; then, corresponding safety measures were adopted to reduce the risk.

A hybrid approach based on the analytic hierarchy process and 2-tuple hybrid ordered weighted averaging for location selection of distribution centers

Distribution centers (DCs) are an important part of the modern logistics system. The selection of a location for a DC is significant for saving costs and reducing externalities caused by distribution. In this paper, we propose a new hybrid method based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and 2-tuple hybrid ordered weighted averaging (THOWA) to select the location of a DC in a megacity. First, we propose a new set of evaluation criteria integrating economic, political, social and ecological information based on the characteristics of Chinese megacities. Second, subjective criteria weights are calculated by AHP combining the evaluation of logistics experts. Third, experts from academia, enterprise and government assess the performance of alternatives. In addition, the overall evaluation values are aggregated by an improved THOWA operator to rank the alternatives. Finally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis to investigate the influence of criteria weights on the decision-making process. The proposed method is novel and addresses the uncertainty under limited quantitative information, which has the advantages of avoiding information loss and distortion problems in the integrating process and operating linguistic evaluation information effectively. The proposed method can be practically applied by municipal planning departments in deciding on the location of new DCs. A numerical application of the proposed method is provided.