Chinese carless young drivers' self-reported driving behavior and simulated driving performance

Risk perceptions and DUI decisions of drivers in different legal environments: New evidence on differential deterrence from a Chinese sample

OBJECTIVES

Research on the deterrent effects of driving-under-the-influence (DUI) laws has been limited in China, which has criminalized drunk driving since May 2011 yet the effectiveness of this legislation remains unclear. Primary studies are needed to confirm whether government reports of reductions in DUI rates since then can indeed match changes in driver perceptions of DUI risk, and if so, be attributed to what specific components of the DUI legal environments. Based on the classical theory of deterrence and recent advances in differential deterrence, this study adopted a conjoint experiment from a previous US study that simulated the decision-making process of potential drinking drivers, and evaluated how DUI sanctions and enforcement practices contributed differentially to the three components of deterrence (i.e., certainty, swiftness, and severity of punishment). Key individual characteristics and nonlegal factors, as suggested by differential deterrence research to moderate the impact of DUI laws, were also considered.

METHODS

A Web-based conjoint experiment was conducted on a sample of 109 college students from two major universities in Shenzhen, China. Participants were randomly assigned to blocks of hypothetical scenarios composed of different levels of DUI enforcement and penalties, and asked to choose from a pair of scenarios each time, in which they were more likely to drink and drive. They also answered questions adapted from previous studies that measured key individual factors in relation to differential deterrence, such as informal sanction threat, moral inhibition, and personal and vicarious experiences with punishment. Such individual differences were accounted for in both a conventional two-level mixed logit aggregate model and a Hierarchical Bayes model.

RESULTS

Consistent with prior findings in Western countries, DUI enforcement intensity, was found to be the strongest deterrent to potential drinking drivers in China. License suspension, as an administrative punishment that can be swiftly implemented, was also effective in deterring the Chinese drivers, who however were much more likely to fear the revocation of their licenses rather than a 6-month suspension only. Meanwhile, they were notably deterred by the possibility of being in jail for 1-3 days, let alone for 1-2 months. Altogether, enforcement, license suspension and jail penalties accounted for more than 75 percent of attribute impact on drivers' decision to drink and drive, whereas fine penalty and license points had almost no effect. On the other hand, nonlegal factors such as informal sanction threat and vicarious experiences were found to have significantly moderated the deterrent effects of DUI laws.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, this study quantified the unique effects of perceived certainty, swiftness, and severity of DUI punishment in the Chinese context, and supported the usefulness of conjoint experiments for examining risk perceptions and DUI decisions in different legal environments. It also provided new empirical evidence on differential deterrence and pointed out the need of determining for which subsets of individuals and under what conditions can legal sanctions successfully deter potential offenders. Such research will help researchers and policy makers better understand the role of deterrence, for more effective policy development related to DUI as well as other important traffic safety issues.

Binge Drinking and Drunk Driving Among Current Drinkers in Thailand: Analysis of Cigarette Smoking and Alcohol Drinking Behavior Surveys From 2007 to 2017

This study aimed to evaluate the association between binge drinking and drunk driving among the Thai population. Data in 2007, 2011, and 2017 of the Thai National surveys on Tobacco and Alcohol Consumption were analyzed. The household surveys collected information from the population, aged >15 years, using a face-to-face interview. There were 89 002 current drinkers from the 3 waves of surveys. About 40% reported drunk driving in the past 12 months. Binge drinking accounted for 17.3%, 17.8%, and 42.8% of the current drinkers in 2007, 2011, and 2017, respectively. The prevalence of drunk driving also increased from 36.6% to 57.7% over the 10-year period. Both occasional binge drinkers and regular binge drinkers showed about twice the risk of drunk driving (range of odds ratios [ORs] from 1.81; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.71-1.92 to OR 2.96; 95% CI = 2.64-3.31), compared with non-binge drinkers, and these OR increased by drinking frequency.

Overestimation of self-reported driving exposure: Results from the SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Study

OBJECTIVES

The accuracy of self-reported driving exposure has questioned the validity of using self-reported mileage to inform research questions. Studies examining the accuracy of self-reported driving exposure compared to objective measures find low validity, with drivers overestimating and underestimating driving distance. The aims of the current study were to (1) examine the discrepancy between self-reported annual mileage and driving exposure the following year and (2) investigate whether these differences depended on age and annual mileage.

METHODS

Two estimates of drivers' self-reported annual mileage collected during vehicle installation (obtained via prestudy questionnaires) and approximated annual mileage driven (based upon Global Positioning System data) were acquired from 3,323 participants who participated in the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 (SHRP2) Naturalistic Driving Study.

RESULTS

A Wilcoxon signed rank test showed that there was a significant difference between self-reported and annual driving exposure during participation in SHRP 2, with the majority of self-reported responses overestimating annual mileage the following year, irrespective of whether an ordinal or ratio variable was examined. Over 15% of participants provided self-reported responses with over 100% deviation, which were exclusive to participants underestimating annual mileage. Further, deviations in reporting differed between participants who had low, medium, and high exposure, as well as between participants in different age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicate that although self-reported annual mileage is heavily relied on for research, such estimates of driving distance may be an overestimate of current or future mileage and can influence the validity of prior research that has utilized estimates of driving exposure.

Does family background impact driving attitudes and risky behaviours? An investigation on Chinese young drivers

The rapid pace of motorisation in China has been well documented, as has the large road trauma burden the Chinese citizens are facing as a result. China's unique political system represents an important consideration in helping reduce road trauma, yet political factors have not been previously investigated in this context. Recently, emerging issues on the road involving the adult children of politically powerful families have become a serious social problem in China, and have drawn widespread media and public attention. This study took a novel approach to examining factors associated with risky attitudes and risky road use in China by investigating the economic and political background status of a sample of young Chinese drivers. An online survey was conducted in May 2015 with a sample size of 476 Chinese young drivers from across the country, aged between 18 and 28, including 305 males and 171 females. The results suggest that for participants who reported having a familial political background, more risky driving behaviours were reported among those participants who reported more impact on their life from that political background; while for participants without political background, higher personal income was associated with more risky driving behaviours. The findings are discussed in light of China's political management system and potential education opportunities for young drivers.

Prediction of vehicle crashes by drivers' characteristics and past traffic violations in Korea using a zero-inflated negative binomial model

AIMS

Traffic safety is a significant public health challenge, and vehicle crashes account for the majority of injuries. This study aims to identify whether drivers' characteristics and past traffic violations may predict vehicle crashes in Korea.

METHODS

A total of 500,000 drivers were randomly selected from the 11.6 million driver records of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs in Korea. Records of traffic crashes were obtained from the archives of the Korea Insurance Development Institute. After matching the past violation history for the period 2004-2005 with the number of crashes in year 2006, a total of 488,139 observations were used for the analysis. Zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to determine the incident risk ratio (IRR) of vehicle crashes by past violations of individual drivers. The included covariates were driver's age, gender, district of residence, vehicle choice, and driving experience.

RESULTS

Drivers violating (1) a hit-and-run or drunk driving regulation at least once and (2) a signal, central line, or speed regulation more than once had a higher risk of a vehicle crash with respective IRRs of 1.06 and 1.15. Furthermore, female gender, a younger age, fewer years of driving experience, and middle-sized vehicles were all significantly associated with a higher likelihood of vehicle crashes.

CONCLUSIONS

Drivers' demographic characteristics and past traffic violations could predict vehicle crashes in Korea. Greater resources should be assigned to the provision of traffic safety education programs for the high-risk driver groups.