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Chen J, Luo S, Tang F, Han M, Zheng J, Deng M, Luo G. Development and validation of a practical prognostic nomogram for evaluating inpatient mortality of cirrhotic patients with acute variceal hemorrhage. Ann Hepatol 2023; 28:101086. [PMID: 36889674 DOI: 10.1016/j.aohep.2023.101086] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2022] [Revised: 01/20/2023] [Accepted: 01/25/2023] [Indexed: 03/10/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES Cirrhotic patients with acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH) have high short-term mortality. Established prognostic scores are seldom applicable clinically, partially because they need external validation or contain subjective variables. We aimed to develop and validate a practical prognostic nomogram based on objective predictors to predict prognosis for cirrhotic patients with AVH. PATIENTS AND METHODS We enrolled 308 AVH patients with cirrhosis from our center as the derivation cohort to develop a new nomogram using logistic regression and validated it in cohorts of patients from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) III (n = 247) and IV (n = 302). RESULTS International normalized ratio (INR), albumin (ALB) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were identified as predictors for inpatient mortality and a nomogram was constructed based on them. The nomogram discriminated well in both derivation and MIMIC-III/-IV validation cohorts with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of 0.846 and 0.859/0.833, respectively and showed a better agreement between expected and observed outcomes (Hosmer-Lemeshow tests, all comparisons, P > 0.05) than other scores in all cohorts. Our nomogram had the lowest Brier scores (0.082/0.114/0.119 in training/MIMIC-III/MIMIC-IV) and highest R2 (0.367/0.393/0.346 in training/MIMIC-III/MIMIC-IV) compared to the recalibrated model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-hepatic encephalopathy (MELD-HE) and cirrhosis acute gastrointestinal bleeding (CAGIB) scores in all cohorts. CONCLUSIONS We developed a practical prognostic nomogram using easily verified indicators available in initial patient evaluation, which may serve as a reliable tool to accurately predict inpatient mortality for cirrhotic patients with AVH.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie Chen
- Department of Gastroenterology, Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, Sichuan, China
| | - Sha Luo
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University (Army Medical University), Chongqing 400038, China
| | - Feng Tang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Third People's Hospital of Chengdu, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Ming Han
- Department of Gastroenterology, Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, Sichuan, China
| | - Jie Zheng
- Department of Gastroenterology, Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, Sichuan, China
| | - Mingming Deng
- Department of Gastroenterology, Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, Sichuan, China.
| | - Gang Luo
- Department of Gastroenterology, Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, Sichuan, China.
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Yu Y, Xie S, Wang K, Zhang F, Jiang C, Qiu C, Zhu J, Shen W. Perfusion Analysis of Kidney Injury in Rats With Cirrhosis Induced by Common Bile Duct Ligation Using Arterial Spin Labeling MRI. J Magn Reson Imaging 2022; 55:1393-1404. [PMID: 34499757 DOI: 10.1002/jmri.27917] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2021] [Revised: 08/26/2021] [Accepted: 08/27/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Arterial spin labeling (ASL) has been proven to be effective in ischemia-induced acute kidney injury (AKI); however, validation of ASL magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is limited in AKI in the presence of cirrhosis. PURPOSE To investigate the feasibility of ASL in revealing renal blood flow (RBF) changes in kidney injury in the presence of cirrhosis and to assess its value in the early diagnosis of disease. STUDY TYPE Longitudinal. ANIMAL MODEL Rats were randomized into baseline group (N = 3), sham surgery group (N = 18), and common bile duct ligation (BDL) group (N = 48). All groups were divided into six subgroups based on different sacrificed time points. FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE 3 T scanner, prototypic pulsed ASL sequence using flow-sensitive alternating inversion recovery preparation, half-Fourier acquisition single-shot turbo spin echo sequence. ASSESSMENT RBF measurement was performed by ASL. Hematoxylin-eosin (HE) score, Hypoxia-inducible factor-1alpha (HIF-1α) score, peritubular capillar (PTC) density, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, serum total bilirubin, total bile acids, serum creatinine (Scr), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) were harvested. STATISTICAL TESTS Analysis of variance, Pearson's correlation coefficient, and receiver operating characteristic curves were performed. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS RBF, HE score, HIF-1α score, and PTC density after BDL were significantly different from baseline. RBF was highly correlated with HE score, HIF-1α score, and PTC density (r = -0.7598, r = -0.7434, r = 0.6406, respectively). RBF and Scr began to differ significantly from baseline at day 3 and 7 after intervention, respectively. The areas under the curves of RBF, Scr, and BUN for distinguishing non-AKI from AKI in cirrhosis were 1.00, 0.888, and 0.911, while those for distinguishing mild from severe kidney injury were 0.961, 0.830, and 0.857, respectively. DATA CONCLUSION ASL allows the longitudinal assessment of the degree of AKI induced by cholestatic cirrhosis in rats and can serve as a noninvasive marker for the early and accurate diagnosis of AKI. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE 2 TECHNICAL EFFICACY STAGE: 2.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yongquan Yu
- Department of Radiology, First Central Clinical College, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
- Department of Radiology, Weihai Central Hospital, Shandong, China
| | - Shuangshuang Xie
- Department of Radiology, Tianjin First Central Hospital, School of Medicine, Nankai University, Tianjin, China
| | - Kaiqi Wang
- School of Chemistry and Pharmaceutical Engineering, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Taian, China
| | - Fuzhi Zhang
- Department of Pathology, Rushan People's Hospital, Shandong, China
| | - Chao Jiang
- Department of Public Health, Zhangye People's Hospital Affiliated to Hexi University, Zhangye, China
| | - Caixin Qiu
- Department of Radiology, Tianjin First Central Hospital, School of Medicine, Nankai University, Tianjin, China
| | - Jinxia Zhu
- MR Collaboration, Siemens Healthcare Ltd, Beijing, China
| | - Wen Shen
- Department of Radiology, Tianjin First Central Hospital, School of Medicine, Nankai University, Tianjin, China
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Hsu WF, Tsai PC, Chen CY, Tseng KC, Lai HC, Kuo HT, Hung CH, Tung SY, Wang JH, Chen JJ, Lee PL, Chien RN, Lin CY, Yang CC, Lo GH, Tai CM, Lin CW, Kao JH, Liu CJ, Liu CH, Yan SL, Bair MJ, Su WW, Chu CH, Chen CJ, Lo CC, Cheng PN, Chiu YC, Wang CC, Cheng JS, Tsai WL, Lin HC, Huang YH, Huang JF, Dai CY, Chuang WL, Yu ML, Peng CY. Hepatitis C virus eradication decreases the risks of liver cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications (Taiwanese chronic hepatitis C cohort). J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2021; 36:2884-2892. [PMID: 33963615 DOI: 10.1111/jgh.15538] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2020] [Revised: 04/30/2021] [Accepted: 05/03/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM It is currently unknown how hepatitis C virus (HCV) eradication with pegylated interferon and ribavirin (PR) therapy affects the incidence of new-onset liver cirrhosis (LC) in patients without cirrhosis and the incidence of decompensated liver disease (DLD) or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS Taiwanese chronic hepatitis C cohort (T-COACH) is a nationwide HCV registry cohort from 23 hospitals in Taiwan recruited between 2003 and 2015. This study enrolled 10 693 patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC), linked to the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, receiving PR therapy for at least 4 weeks for new-onset LC and liver-related complications (DLD or HCC). RESULTS Of the 10 693 patients, 1372 (12.8%) patients had LC, and the mean age was 54.0 ± 11.4 years. The mean follow-up duration was 4.38 ± 2.79 years, with overall 46 798 person-years. The 10-year cumulative incidence rates of new-onset LC were 5.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.2-7.7) in patients without cirrhosis with a sustained virologic response (SVR) and 21.9% (95% CI: 13.4-32.4) in those without SVR (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.22, P < 0.001). The 10-year cumulative incidence rates of liver-related complications were 21.4% (95% CI: 11.1-37.2) in patients with cirrhosis with SVR and 47.0% (95% CI: 11.1-86.0) in those without SVR after adjustment for age, sex, and competing mortality (HR: 0.52, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Hepatitis C virus eradication with PR therapy decreased the incidence of new-onset LC in noncirrhotic patients and the incidence of liver-related complications in cirrhotic patients with CHC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei-Fan Hsu
- Center for Digestive Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan.,Graduate Institute of Biomedical Science, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan.,School of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Pei-Chein Tsai
- Hepatobiliary Division, Department of Internal Medicine and Hepatitis Center, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.,School of Medicine and Hepatitis Research Center, College of Medicine, and Center for Center for Liquid Biopsy and Cohort Research, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Chi-Yi Chen
- Department of Internal Medicine, Chiayi Christian Hospital, Chiayi, Taiwan
| | - Kuo-Chih Tseng
- Department of Internal Medicine, Dalin Tzu Chi Hospital, Buddhist Tzu Chi Medical Foundation, Chia-Yi; School of Medicine, Tzuchi University, Hualien, Taiwan
| | - Hsueh-Chou Lai
- Center for Digestive Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan.,School of Chinese Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Hsing-Tao Kuo
- Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Chao-Hung Hung
- Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chiayi Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chiayi, Taiwan
| | - Shui-Yi Tung
- Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chiayi Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chiayi, Taiwan
| | - Jing-Houng Wang
- Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Jyh-Jou Chen
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Liouying, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Pei-Lun Lee
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Liouying, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Ron-Nan Chien
- Division of Hepatology, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Linkou Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan, Taiwan
| | - Chun-Yen Lin
- Division of Hepatology, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Linkou Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan, Taiwan
| | - Chi-Chieh Yang
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Show-Chwan Memorial Hospital, Changhua, Taiwan
| | - Gin-Ho Lo
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, E-Da Hospital, and School of Medicine, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Chi-Ming Tai
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, E-Da Hospital, and School of Medicine, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Chih-Wen Lin
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, E-Da Hospital, and School of Medicine, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Jia-Horng Kao
- Graduate Institute of Clinical Medicine, National Taiwan University College of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan.,Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, The National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chun-Jen Liu
- Graduate Institute of Clinical Medicine, National Taiwan University College of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan.,Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, The National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chen-Hua Liu
- Graduate Institute of Clinical Medicine, National Taiwan University College of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan.,Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, The National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Sheng-Lei Yan
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chang Bing Show-Chwan Memorial Hospital, Changhua, Taiwan
| | - Ming-Jong Bair
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Taitung Mackay Memorial Hospital, Taitung, Taiwan
| | - Wei-Wen Su
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Changhua Christian Hospital, Changhua, Taiwan
| | - Cheng-Hsin Chu
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Mackay Memorial Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chih-Jen Chen
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Mackay Memorial Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Ching-Chu Lo
- Department of Internal Medicine, St. Martin De Porres Hospital - Daya, Chiayi, Taiwan
| | - Pin-Nan Cheng
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Yen-Cheng Chiu
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Chia-Chi Wang
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tzuchi Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Jin-Shiung Cheng
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Wei-Lun Tsai
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Han-Chieh Lin
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Yi-Hsiang Huang
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Jee-Fu Huang
- Hepatobiliary Division, Department of Internal Medicine and Hepatitis Center, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.,School of Medicine and Hepatitis Research Center, College of Medicine, and Center for Center for Liquid Biopsy and Cohort Research, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Chia-Yen Dai
- Hepatobiliary Division, Department of Internal Medicine and Hepatitis Center, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.,School of Medicine and Hepatitis Research Center, College of Medicine, and Center for Center for Liquid Biopsy and Cohort Research, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Wan-Long Chuang
- Hepatobiliary Division, Department of Internal Medicine and Hepatitis Center, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.,School of Medicine and Hepatitis Research Center, College of Medicine, and Center for Center for Liquid Biopsy and Cohort Research, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Ming-Lung Yu
- Hepatobiliary Division, Department of Internal Medicine and Hepatitis Center, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.,School of Medicine and Hepatitis Research Center, College of Medicine, and Center for Center for Liquid Biopsy and Cohort Research, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Cheng-Yuan Peng
- Center for Digestive Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan.,School of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
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Ali B, Salim A, Alam A, Zuberi BF, Ali Z, Azam Z, Kamani L, Farooqi JI, Salih M, Nawaz AA, Chaudhry AA, Hashmi ZY, Siddique M. HEP-Net opinion on the management of ascites and its complications in the setting of decompensated cirrhosis in the resource constrained environment of Pakistan. Pak J Med Sci 2020; 36:1117-1132. [PMID: 32704299 PMCID: PMC7372671 DOI: 10.12669/pjms.36.5.2407] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2020] [Revised: 05/09/2020] [Accepted: 05/20/2020] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Approximately one half of patients develop ascites within 10 years of diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis. It is a poor prognostic indicator, with only 50% surviving beyond two years. Mortality worsens significantly to 20% to 50% at one year if the ascites becomes refractory to medical therapy. Pakistan has one of the highest prevalence of viral hepatitis in the world and patients with ascites secondary to liver cirrhosis make a major percentage of both inpatient and outpatient burden. Studies indicate that over 80% of patients admitted with ascites have liver cirrhosis as the cause. This expert opinion suggests proper assessment of patients with ascites in the presence of underlying cirrhosis. This expert opinion includes appropriate diagnosis and management of uncomplicated ascites, refractory ascites and complicated ascites (including spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) ascites, hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) and hyponatremia. The purpose behind this expert opinion is to help consultants, postgraduate trainees, medical officers and primary care physicians optimally manage their patients with cirrhosis and ascites in a resource constrained setting as is often encountered in a developing country like Pakistan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bushra Ali
- Bushra Ali, Fatima Memorial Medical and Dental College, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Adnan Salim
- Adnan Salim, Shaikh Zayed Postgraduate Medical Institute, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Altaf Alam
- Altaf Alam, Shaikh Zayed Postgraduate Medical Institute, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Bader Faiyaz Zuberi
- Bader Faiyaz Zuberi, Dow Medical College, Dow University of Health Sciences, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Zeeshan Ali
- Zeeshan Ali, Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Zahid Azam
- Zahid Azam, NILGID, Dow University of Health Sciences, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Lubna Kamani
- Lubna Kamani, Liaquat National Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan
| | | | - Muhammed Salih
- Muhammed Salih, Quaid e Azam International Hospital, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Arif Amir Nawaz
- Arif Amir Nawaz, Fatima Memorial Medical and Dental College, Lahore, Pakistan
| | | | | | - Masood Siddique
- Masood Siddique, Jinnah Memorial Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
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