Controlling malaria: competition, seasonality and 'slingshotting' transgenic mosquitoes into natural populations

A model for the control of malaria using genetically modified vectors

Recent works have considered the problem of using transgenic mosquitoes to control a malaria epidemic. These insects have been genetically engineered to reduce their capacity to infect humans with malaria parasites. We analyze a model of the mosquito population dynamics when genetically modified individuals are introduced into a wild type population so that the effect of their introduction can be assessed. The model describes the dynamics of gene selection under sexual reproduction in a closed vector population. Our results show that the fitness of the resulting heterozygous population is the key parameter for the success of the invasion, independently of the fitness of homozygous vectors. The vector population dynamics model is then combined with an epidemiological model to study the feasibility of controlling a malaria epidemic. Basic reproductive numbers are calculated for both models, and conditions are obtained for preventing reappearance of the epidemic. Simulations on this model show that it may be possible to reduce or even eradicate the epidemic only if the heterozygous population is better adapted than the wild type. They also show that this can be achieved without completely eliminating the wild type mosquitoes.