Factors associated with short recurrence-free survival in completely resected colon cancer

A refined prediction of early recurrence combining tumor deposits in patients with resected rectal mucinous adenocarcinoma

PURPOSE

Early recurrence (ER) of rectal mucinous adenocarcinoma (MAC) has yet to be defined. We therefore explored risk factors for ER and constructed a predictive nomogram.

METHOD

A total of 145 rectal MAC patients undergoing radical surgery were included. The minimum P value method was used to determine the optimal cut-off point to discriminate between ER and late recurrence (LR). Risk factors for ER were determined by a logistic regression analysis, and a predictive nomogram was constructed.

RESULTS

A total of 62 (42.8%) patients developed tumor recurrence. The optimal time to define ER was 12 months. A pre-treatment tumor distance from the anal verge ≤ 7 cm, pathological N stage, lymphovascular invasion, tumor deposits, and time to recurrence ≤ 12 months were significantly associated with a poor post-recurrence survival in patients with recurrence. A pre-treatment serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level > 10 ng/ml, pre-treatment tumor distance from the anal verge ≤ 7 cm, pathological N + stage, perineural invasion, and tumor deposits were identified as independent risk factors associated with ER. A nomogram predicting ER was constructed (C-index 0.870).

CONCLUSION

The pre-treatment serum CEA level, pre-treatment tumor distance from the anal verge, pathological N + stage, perineural invasion, and tumor deposits were significantly predictive of ER for rectal MAC patients.

Factors associated with colon cancer early, intermediate and late recurrence after surgery for stage I-III: A 5-year prospective study

OBJECTIVE

To identify factors associated with early, intermediate or late recurrence colon cancer recurrence.

METHODS

A total of 1,732 consecutive patients with colon cancer were recruited and followed for a period of 5 years. Recurrence at 1 year (early), from 1 to 2 (early), from 2 to 3 (intermediate) and from 3 to 5 years (late) was the main outcome measures.

RESULTS

Predictors of early recurrence (AUC (95% CI):0.74 (0.70-0.78) were as follows: TNM stage II and III, more than one type of invasion, haemoglobin <10 g/dl, residual tumour (R1), ASA IV, log odds of positive lymph nodes ratio ≥-0.53, perforation, neoadjuvant chemotherapy, infectious complications within 1 year and CEA pre- and post-intervention. These factors remained significant for predicting intermediate (AUC [95% CI]: 0.72 [0.67-0.77]) and late (AUC [95% CI]: 0.68 [0.63-0.74]) recurrence, except for ASA class, log lymph node ratio, perforation and neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Additionally, laterality (left) and medical complications up to 2 years were significant.

CONCLUSIONS

These risk factors show good predictive ability of early, intermediate and late recurrence, confirming factors established by guidelines and adding some others. They could serve to provide more appropriate and accurate treatment and follow-up tailored to patient characteristics.