Adolescent premarital childbearing: do economic incentives matter?

The relationship between academic achievement and nonmarital teenage childbearing: evidence from the panel study of income dynamics

CONTEXT

Females who do well in school are less likely than those who do poorly to experience a nonmarital teenage birth. However, little is known about which dimensions of academic achievement are the most strongly related to teenage childbearing, or about whether the relationship between achievement and childbearing varies according to the presence of other behavioral problems.

METHODS

Individual-level and family-level data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, combined with information on contextual state-level economic and policy measures, were used to study nonmarital childbearing between the ages of 16 and 19 among 701 females who turned 16 between 2000 and 2007. Multivariate logistic regression analyses examined the relationship between the probability of nonmarital teenage childbearing and age-standardized scores on academic assessments of letter-word identification, passage comprehension and applied problem-solving ability.

RESULTS

Scores on the passage comprehension and applied problem-solving subtests were strongly associated with the probability of experiencing a nonmarital teenage birth among respondents who had relatively few behavioral problems. For this group, an increase of one standard deviation in the score on either assessment was associated with a reduction of about 50% in the risk of experiencing a nonmarital teenage birth. However, no evidence was found of an equivalent relationship among respondents with more pronounced behavioral problems or for the letter-word identification assessment.

CONCLUSIONS

Future research should continue to explore the possibility that improvements in academic achievement may help to reduce the rate of nonmarital teenage childbearing.

High School Dropouts and Sexually Transmitted Infections

People who drop out of high school fare worse in many aspects of life. We analyze the relationship between dropping out of high school and the probability of contracting a sexually transmitted infection (STI). Previous studies on the relationship between dropout status and sexual outcomes have not empirically addressed unobserved heterogeneity at the individual level. Using fixed effects estimators, we find evidence supporting a positive relationship between dropping out of high school and the risk of contracting an STI for females. Furthermore, we present evidence that illustrates differences between the romantic partners of dropouts versus enrolled students. These differences suggest that female dropouts may be more susceptible to contracting STIs because they partner with significantly different types of people than non-dropouts. Our results point to a previously undocumented benefit of encouraging those at risk of dropping out to stay in school longer.

Why is the teen birth rate in the United States so high and why does it matter?

Teens in the United States are far more likely to give birth than in any other industrialized country in the world. U.S. teens are two and a half times as likely to give birth as compared to teens in Canada, around four times as likely as teens in Germany or Norway, and almost 10 times as likely as teens in Switzerland. Among more developed countries, Russia has the next highest teen birth rate after the United States, but an American teenage girl is still around 25 percent more likely to give birth than her counterpart in Russia. Moreover, these statistics incorporate the almost 40 percent fall in the teen birth rate that the United States has experienced over the past two decades. Differences across U.S. states are quite dramatic as well. A teenage girl in Mississippi is four times more likely to give birth than a teenage girl in New Hampshire--and 15 times more likely to give birth as a teen compared to a teenage girl in Switzerland. This paper has two overarching goals: understanding why the teen birth rate is so high in the United States and understanding why it matters. Thus, we begin by examining multiple sources of data to put current rates of teen childbearing into the perspective of cross-country comparisons and recent historical context. We examine teen birth rates alongside pregnancy, abortion, and "shotgun" marriage rates as well as the antecedent behaviors of sexual activity and contraceptive use. We seek insights as to why the rate of teen childbearing is so unusually high in the United States as a whole, and in some U.S. states in particular. We argue that explanations that economists have tended to study are unable to account for any sizable share of the variation in teen childbearing rates across place. We describe some recent empirical work demonstrating that variation in income inequality across U.S. states and developed countries can explain a sizable share of the geographic variation in teen childbearing. To the extent that income inequality is associated with a lack of economic opportunity and heightened social marginalization for those at the bottom of the distribution, this empirical finding is potentially consistent with the ideas that other social scientists have been promoting for decades but which have been largely untested with large data sets and standard econometric methods. Our reading of the totality of evidence leads us to conclude that being on a low economic trajectory in life leads many teenage girls to have children while they are young and unmarried and that poor outcomes seen later in life (relative to teens who do not have children) are simply the continuation of the original low economic trajectory. That is, teen childbearing is explained by the low economic trajectory but is not an additional cause of later difficulties in life. Surprisingly, teen birth itself does not appear to have much direct economic consequence. Moreover, no silver bullet such as expanding access to contraception or abstinence education will solve this particular social problem. Our view is that teen childbearing is so high in the United States because of underlying social and economic problems. It reflects a decision among a set of girls to "drop-out" of the economic mainstream; they choose non-marital motherhood at a young age instead of investing in their own economic progress because they feel they have little chance of advancement. This thesis suggests that to address teen childbearing in America will require addressing some difficult social problems: in particular, the perceived and actual lack of economic opportunity among those at the bottom of the economic ladder.

Message and price components of Family Caps: experimental evidence from New Jersey

In this paper, we examine the relative efficacy of two mechanisms--price consideration and the message of social responsibility--in accounting for Family Cap effects on fertility behavior. The Family Cap is a component of welfare reform policy that denies additional cash benefits to children born 10 or more months after a woman entered the welfare rolls. We use data from the New Jersey Family Development Program (FDP) evaluation that employed a classical experimental design. We find that fertility behaviors are influenced by both Family Cap price and message mechanisms but that these effects are conditioned by welfare recipients' time on welfare and race. Black women who have longer stays on welfare are more likely to be influenced by price while women with shorter stays are influenced by both price and the social message. We believe our results have implications not only for future public welfare policy initiatives but for any social policies that attempt to influence behavior directly, through individual rewards and punishments, and indirectly through the activation of social or community pressures.

Medicaid Expansions and Fertility in the United States

Beginning in the mid-1980s and extending through the early to mid-1990s, a substantial number of women and children in the United States gained eligibility for Medicaid through a series of income-based expansions. Using natality data from the National Center for Health Statistics, we estimate fertility responses to these eligibility expansions. We follow Currie and Gruber (2001) and measure changes in state Medicaid-eligibility policy by simulating the fraction of a standard population that would qualify for benefits in different states and different time periods. From 1985 to 1996, the fraction of women aged 15–44 who were eligible for Medicaid coverage for a pregnancy increased more than 20 percentage points. When we use a state and year fixed-effects model with a limited set of covariates, our estimates indicate that fertility increases in response to Medicaid expansions. However, after we include fixed effects for demographic characteristics, the estimated relationship diminishes substantially in size and is no longer statistically significant. We conclude that there is no robust relationship between Medicaid expansions and fertility.

Character as a predictor of reproductive health outcomes for youth: a systematic review

To review research examining the influence of character on adolescent sexual and reproductive health (ASRH). We defined character as comprising two positive youth development constructs: prosocial norms and spirituality. We conducted a systematic review of behavioral research published from 1985 through 2007 that examined the association between two character constructs (prosocial norms and spirituality) and ASRH outcomes. We coded results as showing a protective association, risk association, or no association, and as longitudinal, or cross-sectional. We considered consistent associations from at least two longitudinal studies for a given outcome to be sufficient evidence for a protective or risk association. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that prosocial norms and spirituality can be protective factors for some ASRH outcomes including intention to have sex, early sex or ever having sex, contraceptive and condom use, frequency of sex, and pregnancy. The generalizability of findings by age, race/ethnicity, and gender was unclear. Findings suggest that some character sub-constructs are associated with a reduced likelihood of several adverse ASRH outcomes and with an increased likelihood of using contraceptives and intending to use condoms. Further research is needed to better understand mixed results and results showing some character sub-constructs, such as religious affiliation, to be associated with adverse ASRH outcomes.

A Bioecological Analysis of Risk and Protective Factors Associated With Early Sexual Intercourse of Young Adolescents

Microsystem risk and protective factors associated with early sexual intercourse among low-income adolescents were assessed using bioecological theory and a risk and resiliency framework. Waves 1 and 2 of Welfare, Children and Families: A Three-City Study were used (N=984, 10-14 years). Findings showed age, gender, race, two-parent households, separated households, households where the mother formed a union between waves, transitioning onto welfare between waves, and delinquency increased the odds that adolescents were sexually active. Protective factors for early sexual activity included maternal education and father involvement. Risk factors for early sexual debut were age, gender, race, two-parent households, separated households, and delinquency. A protective factor for early sexual debut was maternal education. Findings differed by gender, race, and race*gender. Policy implications include increasing social and human capital among low-income mothers to promote family stability and providing diversified sexual education programs due to gender differences.

Did welfare reform influence the fertility of young teens?

During the 1990s, states made several reforms to their welfare programs designed to reduce teenage fertility among minors. Among the most prominent of these changes, states started requiring teenage mothers younger than 18 to live with a parent or legal guardian and enroll in high school in order to receive welfare benefits. Using natality data from the National Center for Health Statistics, we compare the trend in fertility rates for young women aged 15 to 17 to the trend for a control group of 18-year-olds. Our estimates imply that the annual percent decline in fertility rates following implementation of these minor parent provisions was 0.7 percentage points larger for young teens than for teens aged 18, a difference of over 22 percent.

Perceptions of child support and sexual activity of adolescent males

Using the 1995 new cohort of the National Survey of Adolescent Males, this paper examines the association between perceptions of child support and adolescent males' sexual activity. The results indicate that adolescent males who expect the chance of being required to pay child support is high if one becomes a non-resident father or who has a family member who paid child support before are more likely to have the same female sexual partner and less likely to have had two or more female partners. Additionally, expectations of being required to pay child support and history of a family member paying child support are positively associated with contraceptive use, especially for Black adolescents.

The association between adverse childhood experiences and adolescent pregnancy, long-term psychosocial consequences, and fetal death

OBJECTIVES

Few reports address the impact of cumulative exposure to childhood abuse and family dysfunction on teen pregnancy and consequences commonly attributed to teen pregnancy. Therefore, we examined whether adolescent pregnancy increased as types of adverse childhood experiences (ACE score) increased and whether ACEs or adolescent pregnancy was the principal source of elevated risk for long-term psychosocial consequences and fetal death.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A retrospective cohort study of 9159 women aged > or = 18 years (mean 56 years) who attended a primary care clinic in San Diego, California in 1995-1997.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Adolescent pregnancy, psychosocial consequences, and fetal death, compared by ACE score (emotional, physical, or sexual abuse; exposure to domestic violence, substance abusing, mentally ill, or criminal household member; or separated/divorced parent).

RESULTS

Sixty-six percent (n = 6015) of women reported > or = 1 ACE. Teen pregnancy occurred in 16%, 21%, 26%, 29%, 32%, 40%, 43%, and 53% of those with 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 to 8 ACEs. As the ACE score rose from zero to 1 to 2, 3 to 4, and > or = 5, odds ratios for each adult consequence increased (family problems: 1.0, 1.5, 2.2, 3.3; financial problems: 1.0, 1.6, 2.3, 2.4; job problems: 1.0, 1.4, 2.3, 2.9; high stress: 1.0, 1.4, 1.9, 2.2; and uncontrollable anger: 1.0, 1.6, 2.8, 4.5, respectively). Adolescent pregnancy was not associated with any of these adult outcomes in the absence of childhood adversity (ACEs: 0). The ACE score was associated with increased fetal death after first pregnancy (odds ratios for 0, 1-2, 3-4, and 5-8 ACEs: 1.0, 1.2, 1.4, and 1.8, respectively); teen pregnancy was not related to fetal death.

CONCLUSIONS

The relationship between ACEs and adolescent pregnancy is strong and graded. Moreover, the negative psychosocial sequelae and fetal deaths commonly attributed to adolescent pregnancy seem to result from underlying ACEs rather than adolescent pregnancy per se.

Parental involvement laws and fertility behavior

This paper considers the impact of the introduction of laws requiring parental involvement in a minor's decision to abort a pregnancy. State-level data over the 1985-1996 period are used to examine abortion, birth, and pregnancy outcomes, while microdata from the 1988 and 1995 National Surveys of Family Growth (NSFG) are utilized to examine sexual activity and contraception. Quasi-experimental methods are employed that examine whether minors' fertility outcomes were affected in those locations that introduced these laws following their introduction and occurred for minors but not other women. I find that parental involvement laws resulted in fewer abortions for minors resulting from fewer pregnancies; there is no statistically significant impact on births. The reduction in pregnancy seems to be attributable to increased use of contraception rather than a reduction in sexual activity.

A preliminary investigation of the effects of restrictions on Medicaid funding for abortions on female STD rates

There is evidence in the economics literature that restrictions on Medicaid funding for abortion reduces the demand for abortion. The unresolved question is whether such restrictions also increase safe sex (that is, pregnancy avoidance) behavior among women. This study explores that issue using state-level gonorrhea rates among women for 1975-1995. The rationale is that sexual behavior that leads to greater risk of accidental pregnancies is likely to be highly correlated with sexual behavior leading to greater risk of STD infection. Since gonorrhea has an incubation period of about a week, and is transmitted almost exclusively through sexual intercourse, a change in sexual behavior should soon be followed by a change in gonorrhea rates. The study used a partial adjustment model with lagged-dependent variables estimated using Arellano-Bond's GMM method. Results fail to find any statistically significant evidence that Medicaid funding restrictions are effective in reducing gonorrhea rates. This finding is robust to a variety of alternate specifications and tests. This suggests that restrictions on Medicaid funding for abortion fail to promote safe sex behavior among women.

Demography and the environment

Demographers' interest in the environment has generally been enmeshed in broader issues of population growth and economic development. Empirical research by demographers on environmental issues other than natural-resource constraints is limited. In this paper, I briefly review past demographic thinking about population and the environment and suggest reasons for the limited scope of demographic research in this area. Next, I describe more recent demographic research on the environment and suggest several newer areas for demographic research. Finally, I consider the future of research on the environment in the field of demography.

Differentials in the incidence of births while on welfare: evidence from Maryland

Births while on public assistance has been one of the central topics in the welfare debate in Maryland because the welfare grant increases with the number of children, and there is debate about whether or not to continue the increased income provision. Based on the Quality Control (QC) data for the period from July 1991 to June 1992, this study examined differentials in the incidence of births conceived and borne while the mothers were on welfare. The results indicate that about one-quarter of recipient children were born on welfare and that higher incidences of these births occur among mothers with less than high-school education, never-married, young, Baltimore residents, and with fewer children at entry on welfare. The presence of parents of welfare mothers or of any adults in the household is found to reduce the incidence of births. Disallowance of the increased welfare grant for additional children may increase the number of families in poverty and the number of children in foster care unless efforts are made to reduce unintentional births and school drop-outs and to fill the gap between mothers' schooling and the needs of the job market.

The effect of expansions in medicaid income eligibility on abortion

In this paper we examine the effect of expansions in Medicaid income eligibility on abortion, using individual-level data from South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. The results suggest that for unmarried nonblack women with less than a high school degree, expansions of income eligibility lowered the probability of abortion by two to five percentage points. Most of the impact of the Medicaid expansions on abortion occurred in the first round of expansions from approximately 45% of the federal poverty level to 100%. For black unmarried women with less than a high school degree, we generally find no effect of expansions in Medicaid income eligibility on abortion.