DECIPHERING SOLAR MAGNETIC ACTIVITY. I. ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SUNSPOT CYCLE AND THE EVOLUTION OF SMALL MAGNETIC FEATURES

Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Tropospheric Variability

The Sun provides the energy required to sustain life on Earth and drive our planet's atmospheric circulation. However, establishing a solid physical connection between solar and tropospheric variability has posed a considerable challenge. The canon of solar variability is derived from the 400 years of observations that demonstrates the waxing and waning number of sunspots over an 11(-ish) year period. Recent research has demonstrated the significance of the underlying 22 years magnetic polarity cycle in establishing the shorter sunspot cycle. Integral to the manifestation of the latter is the spatiotemporal overlapping and migration of oppositely polarized magnetic bands. We demonstrate the impact of "terminators"-the end of Hale magnetic cycles-on the Sun's radiative output and particulate shielding of our atmosphere through the rapid global reconfiguration of solar magnetism. Using direct observation and proxies of solar activity going back some six decades we can, with high statistical significance, demonstrate a correlation between the occurrence of terminators and the largest swings of Earth's oceanic indices: the transition from El Niño to La Niña states of the central Pacific. This empirical relationship is a potential source of increased predictive skill for the understanding of El Niño climate variations, a high-stakes societal imperative given that El Niño impacts lives, property, and economic activity around the globe. A forecast of the Sun's global behavior places the next solar cycle termination in mid-2020; should a major oceanic swing follow, then the challenge becomes: when does correlation become causation and how does the process work?

Triggering The Birth of New Cycle's Sunspots by Solar Tsunami

When will a new cycle’s sunspots appear? We demonstrate a novel physical mechanism, namely, that a “solar tsunami” occurring in the Sun’s interior shear-fluid layer can trigger new cycle’s magnetic flux emergence at high latitudes, a few weeks after the cessation of old cycle’s flux emergence near the equator. This tsunami is excited at the equator when magnetic dams, created by the oppositely-directed old cycle’s toroidal field in North and South hemispheres, break due to mutual annihilation of toroidal flux there. The fluid supported by these dams rushes to the equator; the surplus of fluid cannot be contained there, so it reflects back towards high latitudes, causing a tsunami. This tsunami propagates poleward at a speed of ~300 m/s until it encounters the new cycle’s spot-producing toroidal fields in mid-latitudes, where it perturbs the fields, triggering their surface-eruption in the form of new cycle spots. A new sunspot cycle is preceded for several years by other forms of high-latitude magnetic activity, such as coronal bright points and ephemeral regions, until the tsunami causes the birth of new cycle’s spots. The next tsunami is due by 2020, portending the start of intense ‘space weather’ that can adversely impact the Earth.

Understanding the Role of Mass-Unloading in a Filament Eruption

We describe a partial filament eruption on 11 December 2011 that demonstrates that the inclusion of mass is an important next step for understanding solar eruptions. Observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) spacecraft were used to remove line-of-sight projection effects in filament motion and correlate the effect of plasma dynamics with the evolution of the filament height. Flux cancellation and nearby flux emergence are shown to have played a role in increasing the height of the filament prior to eruption. The two viewpoints allow the quantitative estimation of a large mass-unloading, the subsequent radial expansion, and the eruption of the filament to be investigated. A 1.8 to 4.1 lower-limit ratio between gravitational and magnetic-tension forces was found. We therefore conclude that following the loss-of-equilibrium of the flux-rope, the radial expansion of the flux-rope was restrained by the filamentary material until 70% of the mass had evacuated the structure through mass-unloading.

ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL

The online version of this article (10.1007/s11207-017-1224-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.

Coronal Holes and Open Magnetic Flux over Cycles 23 and 24

As the observational signature of the footprints of solar magnetic field lines open into the heliosphere, coronal holes provide a critical measure of the structure and evolution of these lines. Using a combination of Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SOHO/EIT), Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA), and Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory/Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (STEREO/EUVI A/B) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations spanning 1996 - 2015 (nearly two solar cycles), coronal holes are automatically detected and characterized. Coronal hole area distributions show distinct behavior in latitude, defining the domain of polar and low-latitude coronal holes. The northern and southern polar regions show a clear asymmetry, with a lag between hemispheres in the appearance and disappearance of polar coronal holes.

The solar magnetic activity band interaction and instabilities that shape quasi-periodic variability

Solar magnetism displays a host of variational timescales of which the enigmatic 11-year sunspot cycle is most prominent. Recent work has demonstrated that the sunspot cycle can be explained in terms of the intra- and extra-hemispheric interaction between the overlapping activity bands of the 22-year magnetic polarity cycle. Those activity bands appear to be driven by the rotation of the Sun's deep interior. Here we deduce that activity band interaction can qualitatively explain the ‘Gnevyshev Gap'—a well-established feature of flare and sunspot occurrence. Strong quasi-annual variability in the number of flares, coronal mass ejections, the radiative and particulate environment of the heliosphere is also observed. We infer that this secondary variability is driven by surges of magnetism from the activity bands. Understanding the formation, interaction and instability of these activity bands will considerably improve forecast capability in space weather and solar activity over a range of timescales.

The origins of the Sun's periodic activity, such as sunspot cycles, are poorly understood. McIntosh et al. posit that the rotational forcing of the activity bands comprising the 22-year magnetic cycle undergoes shorter-term variations, driving magnetic flux surges that impact solar output on those timescales.