Prediction of heart rate response to conclusion of the spontaneous breathing trial by fluctuation dissipation theory

Fluctuation-dissipation relations in the imbalanced Wilson-Cowan model

The relation between spontaneous and stimulated brain activity is a fundamental question in neuroscience which has received wide attention in experimental studies. Recently, it has been suggested that the evoked response to external stimuli can be predicted from temporal correlations of spontaneous activity. Previous theoretical results, confirmed by the comparison with magnetoencephalography data for human brains, were obtained for the Wilson-Cowan model in the condition of balance of excitation and inhibition, a signature of a healthy brain. Here we extend previous studies to imbalanced conditions by examining a region of parameter space around the balanced fixed point. Analytical results are compared to numerical simulations of Wilson-Cowan networks. We evidence that in imbalanced conditions the functional form of the time correlation and response functions can show several behaviors, exhibiting also an oscillating regime caused by the emergence of complex eigenvalues. The analytical predictions are fully in agreement with numerical simulations, validating the role of cross-correlations in the response function. Furthermore, we identify the leading role of inhibitory neurons in controlling the overall activity of the system, tuning the level of excitability and imbalance.

Toward a Taxonomy for Analyzing the Heart Rate as a Physiological Indicator of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: Systematic Review and Development of a Framework

BACKGROUND

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a prevalent psychiatric condition that is associated with symptoms such as hyperarousal and overreactions. Treatments for PTSD are limited to medications and in-session therapies. Assessing the way the heart responds to PTSD has shown promise in detecting and understanding the onset of symptoms.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to extract statistical and mathematical approaches that researchers can use to analyze heart rate (HR) data to understand PTSD.

METHODS

A scoping literature review was conducted to extract HR models. A total of 5 databases including Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (Medline) OVID, Medline EBSCO, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) EBSCO, Excerpta Medica Database (Embase) Ovid, and Google Scholar were searched. Non-English language studies, as well as studies that did not analyze human data, were excluded. A total of 54 studies that met the inclusion criteria were included in this review.

RESULTS

We identified 4 categories of models: descriptive time-independent output, descriptive and time-dependent output, predictive and time-independent output, and predictive and time-dependent output. Descriptive and time-independent output models include analysis of variance and first-order exponential; the descriptive time-dependent output model includes a classical time series analysis and mixed regression. Predictive time-independent output models include machine learning methods and analysis of the HR-based fluctuation-dissipation method. Finally, predictive time-dependent output models include the time-variant method and nonlinear dynamic modeling.

CONCLUSIONS

All of the identified modeling categories have relevance in PTSD, although the modeling selection is dependent on the specific goals of the study. Descriptive models are well-founded for the inference of PTSD. However, there is a need for additional studies in this area that explore a broader set of predictive models and other factors (eg, activity level) that have not been analyzed with descriptive models.

Dynamic data monitoring improves predictive analytics for failed extubation in the ICU

OBJECTIVE

Predictive analytics monitoring that informs clinicians of the risk for failed extubation would help minimize both the duration of mechanical ventilation and the risk of emergency re-intubation in ICU patients. We hypothesized that dynamic monitoring of cardiorespiratory data, vital signs, and lab test results would add information to standard clinical risk factors.

METHODS

We report model development in a retrospective observational cohort admitted to either the medical or surgical/trauma ICU that were intubated during their ICU stay and had available physiologic monitoring data (n  =  1202). The primary outcome was removal of endotracheal intubation (i.e. extubation) followed within 48 h by reintubation or death (i.e. failed extubation). We developed a standard risk marker model based on demographic and clinical data. We also developed a novel risk marker model using dynamic data elements-continuous cardiorespiratory monitoring, vital signs, and lab values.

RESULTS

Risk estimates from multivariate predictive models in the 24 h preceding extubation were significantly higher for patients that failed. Combined standard and novel risk markers demonstrated good predictive performance in leave-one-out validation: AUC of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.57-0.69) and 1.6 alerts per week to identify 32% of extubations that will fail. Novel risk factors added significantly to the standard model.

CONCLUSION

Predictive analytics monitoring models can detect changes in vital signs, continuous cardiorespiratory monitoring, and laboratory measurements in both the hours preceding and following extubation for those patients destined for extubation failure.