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Harmsen M, Tabak C, Höglund-Isaksson L, Humpenöder F, Purohit P, van Vuuren D. Uncertainty in non-CO 2 greenhouse gas mitigation contributes to ambiguity in global climate policy feasibility. Nat Commun 2023; 14:2949. [PMID: 37268633 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38577-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2022] [Accepted: 05/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Despite its projected crucial role in stringent, future global climate policy, non-CO2 greenhouse gas (NCGG) mitigation remains a large uncertain factor in climate research. A revision of the estimated mitigation potential has implications for the feasibility of global climate policy to reach the Paris Agreement climate goals. Here, we provide a systematic bottom-up estimate of the total uncertainty in NCGG mitigation, by developing 'optimistic', 'default' and 'pessimistic' long-term NCGG marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves, based on a comprehensive literature review of mitigation options. The global 1.5-degree climate target is found to be out of reach under pessimistic MAC assumptions, as is the 2-degree target under high emission assumptions. In a 2-degree scenario, MAC uncertainty translates into a large projected range in relative NCGG reduction (40-58%), carbon budget (±120 Gt CO2) and policy costs (±16%). Partly, the MAC uncertainty signifies a gap that could be bridged by human efforts, but largely it indicates uncertainty in technical limitations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathijs Harmsen
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, NL-2594, AV, The Hague, the Netherlands.
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, NL-3584, CB, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
| | - Charlotte Tabak
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, NL-2594, AV, The Hague, the Netherlands
| | - Lena Höglund-Isaksson
- Pollution Management Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, POBox 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Pallav Purohit
- Pollution Management Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Detlef van Vuuren
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, NL-2594, AV, The Hague, the Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, NL-3584, CB, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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