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Liang C, Suen SC, Hong C, Kim A, Singhal R, Simon P, Perez M, Holloway IW. A Microsimulation Model of Mpox in Los Angeles County: Implications for Future Disease Prevention and Control Strategies among Men Who Have Sex with Men. Open Forum Infect Dis 2024; 11:S137-S145. [PMID: 39415828 PMCID: PMC11477083 DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofae401] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2024] Open
Abstract
Background The 2022 monkeypox (mpox) outbreak in Los Angeles County (LAC) emphasized the need to prepare for emergent infectious disease outbreaks. Vaccination and promotion of sexual risk reduction practices appeared successful in LAC, as mpox cases declined starting in August. Nonetheless, questions persisted regarding the effectiveness of targeting vaccinations and the role of sexual risk reduction in reducing mpox cases. Methods We collaborated with the LAC Department of Public Health to develop a microsimulation for men who have sex with men (MSM). This model tracked mpox dynamics by age, race/ethnicity, and HIV status and was calibrated and validated against surveillance data. We simulated counterfactual scenarios to understand the effects of variation in vaccination rates, timing of vaccination rollout, vaccine allocation, and sexual contact rates. Results In the simulation, doubling the vaccination rate reduced cumulative cases over a 40-week time horizon by 13% but would necessitate 88 995 additional doses. Initiating vaccination 2 weeks earlier decreased cases by 11%, while an 8-week delay yielded a 20% increase in cases. A 3-week earlier decrease in sexual contact rates reduced cumulative cases by 60%, while a 3-week delay resulted in a 95% increase. Prioritizing people with HIV (PWH) for vaccination reduced cumulative cases, while allocating vaccines to a single racial/ethnic group was not effective. Conclusions Our study highlights the significance of policies to support timely vaccination and sexual partnership reduction to address mpox outbreaks among MSM. These findings also underscore the need to target vulnerable risk groups, such as PWH.
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Affiliation(s)
- Citina Liang
- Daniel J. Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Southern California Viterbi School of Engineering, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Sze-chuan Suen
- Daniel J. Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Southern California Viterbi School of Engineering, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Chenglin Hong
- School of Social Work, University of Connecticut, Hartford, Connecticut, USA
| | - Andrea Kim
- Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Rita Singhal
- Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Paul Simon
- Department of Epidemiology, University of California Los Angeles Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Mario Perez
- Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Ian W Holloway
- Department of Social Welfare, Luskin School of Public Affairs, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
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Enns B, Sui Y, Guerra‐Alejos BC, Humphrey L, Piske M, Zang X, Doblecki‐Lewis S, Feaster DJ, Frye VA, Geng EH, Liu AY, Marshall BDL, Rhodes SD, Sullivan PS, Nosyk B, the localized economic modelling study group. Estimating the potential value of MSM-focused evidence-based implementation interventions in three Ending the HIV Epidemic jurisdictions in the United States: a model-based analysis. J Int AIDS Soc 2024; 27 Suppl 1:e26265. [PMID: 38965982 PMCID: PMC11224592 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.26265] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2023] [Accepted: 04/23/2024] [Indexed: 07/06/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Improving the delivery of existing evidence-based interventions to prevent and diagnose HIV is key to Ending the HIV Epidemic in the United States. Structural barriers in the access and delivery of related health services require municipal or state-level policy changes; however, suboptimal implementation can be addressed directly through interventions designed to improve the reach, effectiveness, adoption or maintenance of available interventions. Our objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness and potential epidemiological impact of six real-world implementation interventions designed to address these barriers and increase the scale of delivery of interventions for HIV testing and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in three US metropolitan areas. METHODS We used a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated to replicate HIV microepidemics in Atlanta, Los Angeles (LA) and Miami. We identified six implementation interventions designed to improve HIV testing uptake ("Academic detailing for HIV testing," "CyBER/testing," "All About Me") and PrEP uptake/persistence ("Project SLIP," "PrEPmate," "PrEP patient navigation"). Our comparator scenario reflected a scale-up of interventions with no additional efforts to mitigate implementation and structural barriers. We accounted for potential heterogeneity in population-level effectiveness across jurisdictions. We sustained implementation interventions over a 10-year period and evaluated HIV acquisitions averted, costs, quality-adjusted life years and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios over a 20-year time horizon (2023-2042). RESULTS Across jurisdictions, implementation interventions to improve the scale of HIV testing were most cost-effective in Atlanta and LA (CyBER/testing cost-saving and All About Me cost-effective), while interventions for PrEP were most cost-effective in Miami (two of three were cost-saving). We estimated that the most impactful HIV testing intervention, CyBER/testing, was projected to avert 111 (95% credible interval: 110-111), 230 (228-233) and 101 (101-103) acquisitions over 20 years in Atlanta, LA and Miami, respectively. The most impactful implementation intervention to improve PrEP engagement, PrEPmate, averted an estimated 936 (929-943), 860 (853-867) and 2152 (2127-2178) acquisitions over 20 years, in Atlanta, LA and Miami, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Our results highlight the potential impact of interventions to enhance the implementation of existing evidence-based interventions for the prevention and diagnosis of HIV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin Enns
- Centre for Advancing Health OutcomesVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - Yi Sui
- Centre for Advancing Health OutcomesVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | | | - Lia Humphrey
- Centre for Advancing Health OutcomesVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - Micah Piske
- Centre for Advancing Health OutcomesVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - Xiao Zang
- School of Public HealthUniversity of MinnesotaMinneapolisMinnesotaUSA
| | - Susanne Doblecki‐Lewis
- Division of Infectious DiseasesUniversity of Miami Miller School of MedicineMiamiFloridaUSA
| | - Daniel J. Feaster
- Department of Public Health SciencesUniversity of Miami Miller School of MedicineMiamiFloridaUSA
| | | | - Elvin H. Geng
- Center for Dissemination and ImplementationInstitute for Public HealthDivision of Infectious DiseasesDepartment of MedicineSchool of MedicineWashington University in St. LouisSt. LouisMissouriUSA
| | - Albert Y. Liu
- Bridge HIVSan Francisco Department of Public HealthSan FranciscoCaliforniaUSA
| | - Brandon D. L. Marshall
- Department of EpidemiologySchool of Public HealthBrown UniversityProvidenceRhode IslandUSA
| | - Scott D. Rhodes
- Department of Social Sciences and Health PolicyWake Forest University School of MedicineWinston‐SalemNorth CarolinaUSA
| | | | - Bohdan Nosyk
- Centre for Advancing Health OutcomesVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
- Faculty of Health SciencesSimon Fraser UniversityBurnabyBritish ColumbiaCanada
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Jin G, Shi H, Du J, Guo H, Yuan G, Yang H, Zhu Z, Zhang J, Zhang K, Zhang X, Lu X, Xu W, Wang S, Hao J, Sun Y, Su P, Zhang Z. Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Care Continuum for HIV Risk Populations: An Umbrella Review of Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. AIDS Patient Care STDS 2023; 37:583-615. [PMID: 38011347 DOI: 10.1089/apc.2023.0158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective biomedical strategy for HIV prevention. This umbrella review is aimed at providing a comprehensive summary of the current status of each stage of the PrEP care cascade. A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane. Additionally, a Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews 2 (AMSTAR-2) tool and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) checklist were used to evaluate their methodological and reporting quality, respectively. A total of 30 systematic reviews met the inclusion criteria. According to the results of methodological quality assessment, 3 reviews were rated as low, while 27 as critically low. Furthermore, the results of the reporting quality evaluation revealed a mean score of 23.03 for the included reviews. Across all the reviews, awareness of PrEP was generally moderate in all populations, and the acceptability was even higher compared with awareness. Unfortunately, the PrEP uptake among different groups was even less optimal, although the adherence was almost above moderate, and several barriers that hindered the utilization of PrEP were identified, and the most common are as follows: cost, stigma, lack of knowledge, mistrust, low risk perception, and more. Although PrEP has proven to be an effective prevention method to date, the promotion of PrEP failed to achieve the anticipated outcome. To reinforce the generalization of and use of PrEP, and effectively control HIV transmission, it is urgent to identify the underlying causes of low uptake rates so that efficient interventions can be implemented.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guifang Jin
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Child, & Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Haiyan Shi
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Child, & Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Jun Du
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Child, & Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Haiyun Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Child, & Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Guojing Yuan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Child, & Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Huayu Yang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Child, & Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Zhihui Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Child, & Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Jianghui Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Child, & Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Kexin Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Child, & Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Xueqing Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Child, & Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Xiaoyan Lu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Child, & Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Wenzhuo Xu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Child, & Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Sainan Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Child, & Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Jiahu Hao
- Department of Maternal, Child, & Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Ying Sun
- Department of Maternal, Child, & Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Puyu Su
- Department of Maternal, Child, & Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Zhihua Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Child, & Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
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Liang C, Suen SC, Nguyen A, Moucheraud C, Hsu L, Holloway IW, Charlebois ED, Steward WT. Impact of COVID-19 Response on the HIV Epidemic in Men Who Have Sex With Men in San Francisco County: The Importance of Rapid Return to Normalcy. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2023; 92:370-377. [PMID: 36728397 PMCID: PMC9988211 DOI: 10.1097/qai.0000000000003156] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2022] [Accepted: 12/16/2022] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, San Francisco County (SFC) had to shift many nonemergency health care resources to COVID-19, reducing HIV control resources. We sought to quantify COVID-19 effects on HIV burden among men who have sex with men (MSM) as SFC returns to pre-COVID service levels and progresses toward the Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) goals. SETTING Microsimulation model of MSM in SFC tracking HIV progression and treatment. METHODS Scenario analysis where services affected by COVID-19 [testing, care engagement, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake, and retention] return to pre-COVID levels by the end of 2022 or 2025, compared against a counterfactual where COVID-19 changes never occurred. We also examined scenarios where resources are prioritized to reach new patients or retain of existing patients from 2023 to 2025 before all services return to pre-COVID levels. RESULTS The annual number of MSM prescribed PrEP, newly acquired HIV, newly diagnosed, and achieving viral load suppression (VLS) rebound quickly after HIV care returns to pre-COVID levels. However, COVID-19 service disruptions result in measurable reductions in cumulative PrEP use, VLS person-years, incidence, and an increase in deaths over the 2020-2035 period. The burden is statistically significantly larger if these effects end in 2025 instead of 2022. Prioritizing HIV care/prevention initiation over retention results in more person-years of PrEP but less VLS person-years and more deaths, influencing EHE PrEP outcomes. CONCLUSIONS Earlier HIV care return to pre-COVID levels results in lower cumulative HIV burdens. Resource prioritization decisions may differentially affect different EHE goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Citina Liang
- Daniel J. Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Southern California Viterbi School of Engineering, LA
| | - Sze-Chuan Suen
- Daniel J. Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Southern California Viterbi School of Engineering, LA
| | - Anthony Nguyen
- Daniel J. Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Southern California Viterbi School of Engineering, LA
| | - Corrina Moucheraud
- Department of Health Policy and Management, University of California Los Angeles Fielding School of Public Health, LA.,The Center for HIV Identification, Prevention, and Treatment Services (CHIPTS), University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA
| | - Ling Hsu
- San Francisco Department of Public Health, HIV Surveillance Unit, San Francisco, CA
| | - Ian W Holloway
- The Center for HIV Identification, Prevention, and Treatment Services (CHIPTS), University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA.,Department of Social Welfare, Luskin School of Public Affairs, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and
| | - Edwin D Charlebois
- Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA
| | - Wayne T Steward
- Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA
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Meanley S, Egan JE, Ware D, Brennan-Ing M, Haberlen SA, Detels R, Palella F, Friedman MR, Plankey MW. Self-Reported Combination HIV Prevention Strategies Enacted by a Prospective Cohort of Midlife and Older Men Who Have Sex with Men in the United States: A Latent Class Analysis. AIDS Patient Care STDS 2022; 36:462-473. [PMID: 36394465 PMCID: PMC9839341 DOI: 10.1089/apc.2022.0167] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Insights into combination HIV prevention (CHP) strategies to reduce HIV incidence among midlife and older adult men who have sex with men (MSM) are limited. The current study is a secondary data analysis evaluating CHP in a sample of sexually active midlife and older adult MSM (N = 566) from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study Healthy Aging Substudy. Stratified by HIV serostatus, we used latent class analyses to identify CHP classes based on self-reported sociobehavioral and biobehavioral prevention strategies that participants and their male partners used in the prior 6 months. We identified three CHP classes among men living without HIV (MLWOH), including the following: high CHP overall (43.0%), high anal sex abstention (15.0%), and low prevention overall (42.0%). Among men living with HIV (MLWH), we identified four CHP classes, including the following: high CHP overall (20.9%), high CHP/low condom use (27.1%), high condom reliance (22.3%), and low prevention overall (29.7%). There were small differences by sociodemographic characteristics and sexual behavior practices between the classes; however, poppers use was often linked to being in high CHP groups. Our findings support that CHP is not one-size-fits-all for midlife and older adult MSM. There remains a need to scale up clinical providers' sexual health communication practices to assist midlife and older MSM incorporate prevention strategies, particularly biobehavioral prevention strategies that align with their patients' lived experiences.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven Meanley
- Department of Family and Community Health, University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - James E. Egan
- Department of Behavioral and Community Health Sciences, University of Pittsburgh School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Deanna Ware
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
| | - Mark Brennan-Ing
- Brookdale Center for Healthy Aging, Hunter College, City University of New York, New York City, New York, USA
| | - Sabina A. Haberlen
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Roger Detels
- Department of Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases, University of California, Los Angeles Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Frank Palella
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Mackey R. Friedman
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, University of Pittsburgh School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Michael W. Plankey
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
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