Prospective Validation of Objective Prognostic Score for Advanced Cancer Inpatients in South Korea: A Multicenter Study

Association between questionnaire-based and accelerometer-based physical activity and the incidence of chronic kidney disease using data from UK Biobank: a prospective cohort study

Background

Prior studies on the relationship between chronic kidney disease (CKD) and physical activity (PA) mainly relied on subjective PA data and rarely considered the genetic risk. This study aims to thoroughly investigate this relationship by utilizing both accelerometer-measured and questionnaire-measured PA data.

Methods

This prospective cohort study encompasses two cohorts from the UK Biobank. The questionnaire-based cohort involves 448,444 CKD-free participants who completed an International Physical Activity Questionnaire between 2006 and 2010 and had genetic data. PA was categorized into distinct activities: leisure, housework, job-related, and transportation. The accelerometer-based cohort involves 89,296 CKD-free participants who provided a full week of accelerometer-based physical activity data between 2013 and 2015 and had genetic data. PA was classified as light-intensity, moderate-intensity, vigorous-intensity, moderate to vigorous-intensity PA (LPA, MPA, VPA, MVPA), and total PA. Incident CKD was ascertained from linked hospital inpatient and death records. Genetic risk was assessed using polygenic risk scores. Cox proportional hazard models with restricted cubic splines were used for the analysis.

Findings

In the questionnaire-based cohort, 18,184 (4.05%) participants developed CKD during 13.6 years of follow-up. Engaging in strenuous sports, other exercises, walking for pleasure, stair climbing, and heavy DIY were associated with a reduced risk of CKD. In the accelerometer-based cohort, 2297 (2.57%) participants developed CKD during 7.9 years of follow-up. Higher levels [highest quartile vs lowest quartile] of MPA (HR 0.639, 95% CI 0.554-0.737), VPA (HR 0.639, 95% CI 0.549-0.745), MVPA (HR 0.630, 95% CI 0.545-0.729), and total PA (HR 0.649, 95% CI 0.563-0.750) were associated with a lower CKD risk. There were significant interactions between MPA and genetic risk on the risk of CKD incidence (P for interaction = 0.025). A linear dose-response relationship was observed between MPA, total PA, and the risk of CKD incidence with no minimal or maximal threshold. These associations are robust in different subgroups and a series of sensitivity analyses.

Interpretation

Engaging in multiple types of PA and higher levels of total PA, MPA, VPA, and MVPA may be associated with a lower risk of developing CKD, regardless of genetic risk. This finding holds substantial implications for clinical approaches to CKD prevention and provides evidence to inform future PA guideline development.

Funding

Medical Science Advancement Program of Wuhan University, and the National Science Foundation of China.

Routine laboratory parameters to support decision on parenteral nutrition in palliative care

Introduction

Parenteral nutrition (PN) is widely used in palliative care (PC), but there is limited evidence to support its use at the end of life (EOL). This aim of this was to investigate the relationship between routine laboratory parameters and survival in patients receiving PN, and to develop a decision tree model to support clinicians decide whether to start or forgo PN.

Methods

The laboratory parameters of 113 patients with advanced diseases who were admitted to a specialized palliative care unit (PCU) were analyzed at two points in time: T0 = before PN, T1 = two weeks after initiation of PN. Univariate Mann-Whitney U-tests and multivariate linear regression models, as well as a decision tree analysis were computed; all in relation to survival time.

Results

The final regression model was significant with p = 0.001 (adjusted R2 = 0.15) and included two predictors for survival time after PN initiation: the CRP/albumin ratio and urea at T1 (ps = 0.019). Decision tree analysis revealed three important predictors for classification of survival time after PN initiation: CRP, urea, and LDH (all at T0).

Discussion

The decision tree model may help to identify patients likely to benefit from PN, thus supporting the clinical decision whether or not to start PN.

Should the Surprise Question be Used as a Prognostic Tool for People With Life-limiting Illnesses?

The surprise question screening tool ("Would I be surprised if this person died within the next 12 months?") was initially developed to identify possible palliative care needs. One controversial topic regarding the surprise question is whether it should be used as a prognostic tool (predicting survival) for patients with life-limiting illnesses. In this "Controversies in Palliative Care" article, three groups of expert clinicians independently answered this question. All experts provide an overview of current literature, practical advice, and opportunities for future research. All experts reported on the inconsistency of the prognostic capabilities of the surprise question. Two of the three expert groups felt that the surprise question should not be used as a prognostic tool due to these inconsistencies. The third expert group felt that the surprise question should be used as a prognostic tool, particularly for shorter time frames. The experts all highlighted that the original rationale for the surprise question was to trigger a further conversation about future treatment and a potential shift in the focus of the care, identifying patients who many benefit from specialist palliative care or advance care planning; however, many clinicians find this discussion a difficult one to initiate. The experts agreed that the benefit of the surprise question comes from its simplicity: a one-question tool that requires no specific information about the patient's condition. More research is needed to better support the application of this tool in routine practice, particularly in noncancer populations.

Comparison of Objective Prognostic Score and Palliative Prognostic Score performance in inpatients with advanced cancer in Japan and Korea

OBJECTIVE

Accurate prognostication is important for patients and their families to prepare for the end of life. Objective Prognostic Score (OPS) is an easy-to-use tool that does not require the clinicians' prediction of survival (CPS), whereas Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP) needs CPS. Thus, inexperienced clinicians may hesitate to use PaP. We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of OPS compared with PaP in inpatients in palliative care units (PCUs) in three East Asian countries.

METHOD

This study was a secondary analysis of a cross-cultural, multicenter cohort study. We enrolled inpatients with far-advanced cancer in PCUs in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan from 2017 to 2018. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve to compare the accuracy of OPS and PaP.

RESULTS

A total of 1,628 inpatients in 33 PCUs in Japan and Korea were analyzed. OPS and PaP were calculated in 71.7% of the Japanese patients and 80.0% of the Korean patients. In Taiwan, PaP was calculated for 81.6% of the patients. The AUROC for 3-week survival was 0.74 for OPS in Japan, 0.68 for OPS in Korea, 0.80 for PaP in Japan, and 0.73 for PaP in Korea. The AUROC for 30-day survival was 0.70 for OPS in Japan, 0.71 for OPS in Korea, 0.79 for PaP in Japan, and 0.74 for PaP in Korea.

SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS

Both OPS and PaP showed good performance in Japan and Korea. Compared with PaP, OPS could be more useful for inexperienced physicians who hesitate to estimate CPS.

Physical and Mental Activity, Disease Susceptibility, and Risk of Dementia: A Prospective Cohort Study Based on UK Biobank

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The association between patterns of physical/mental activity and dementia and how it is affected by disease susceptibility remains unknown. We aimed to examine the association between patterns of physical and mental activity and dementia and whether it can be modified by disease susceptibility to dementia.

METHODS

In a prospective cohort study based on UK Biobank, 501,376 dementia-free participants were recruited in 2006-2010 and followed from 1 year after the recruitment date until the end of 2019 for ascertainment of dementia. Data on physical (i.e., physical activity at leisure time, housework-related activity, and transportation) and mental (i.e., intelligence, social contact, and use of electronic device) activity were collected using questionnaires at recruitment. Cox models were used to estimate the associations of physical and mental activity-related items, as well as major activity patterns identified by principal component analysis, with the risk of dementia, adjusted for multiple confounders. The modification role of disease susceptibility on such associations was assessed through stratified analyses by the polygenic risk score (PRS) of dementia generated based on summary statistics of independent genome-wide association studies, by the APOE genotype, and by the self-reported family history of dementia.

RESULTS

The mean age at recruitment was 56.53, and 45.60% of the participants were male. During a mean follow-up of 10.66 years, 5,185 dementia cases were identified. When analyzed separately, multiple studied items related to physical and mental activity showed significant associations with the risk of dementia. The pattern analyses revealed that a higher level of adherence to activity patterns related to frequent vigorous and other exercises (hazard ratio 0.65, 95% CI 0.59-0.71), housework-related activity (0.79, 0.72-0.85), and friend/family visit (0.85, 0.75-0.96) was associated with a lower risk of dementia. We obtained comparable results for vascular dementia and Alzheimer disease as well as in the stratified analyses by the PRS for dementia, APOE genotype, or family history of dementia.

DISCUSSION

Activity patterns more adherent to frequent vigorous and other exercises, housework-related activity, and friend/family visit were associated with a reduced risk of multiple types of dementia. Such associations are independent of disease susceptibility, highlighting the potential of these physical and mental activity patterns, as effective interventions, in the primary prevention of dementia.

Assessment of Changes in Symptoms Is Feasible and Prognostic in the Last Weeks of Life: An International Multicenter Cohort Study

Background: Symptoms are not typically part of established various prognostic factors and scoring systems but are among the most frequently assessed issues in patient care. Objectives: To evaluate that, changes in symptoms can provide additional useful prognostic information. Design: A secondary analysis of an international cohort study in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. Setting/Subjects: Subjects were adult patients with advanced cancer (n = 2074) who were admitted to 37 palliative care units (PCUs) in 3 countries from January 2017 to September 2018. Measurements: Symptoms (dyspnea, fatigue, dry mouth, and drowsiness) were assessed at admission and one-week later. Dyspnea was assessed by the presence of resting and exertional dyspnea, whereas other symptoms were assessed using the Integrated Palliative care Outcome Scales (IPOS) (range 0-4). For analysis, we grouped patients by symptom change, as either Improved, Stable, or Worsened (by having at least a one increment decrease, no change, or at least a one increment increase, respectively). Results: Worsened groups had the shortest survival (median survival 15-21 days) compared with those with Improved (median survival 23-31 days) and Stable symptoms (median survival 27-29 days) across all four symptoms (dyspnea, fatigue, dry mouth, and drowsiness). Survival differences were statistically significantly different across all three groups for all symptoms (all p < 0.001). Interestingly, Improved symptoms were associated with similar survival compared with Stable groups, with no statistical differences. Conclusions: Worsened symptoms at one week after admission were useful predictors of survival for patients with advanced cancer in PCUs during the final weeks of life. Longitudinal assessments are needed to reflect passage of time as well as impact of treatments.

Prognosis palliative care study, palliative prognostic index, palliative prognostic score and objective prognostic score in advanced cancer: a prospective comparison

BACKGROUND

Predicting how long a patient with far advanced cancer has to live is a significant part of hospice and palliative care. Various prognostic models have been developed, but have not been fully compared in South Korea.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to compare the accuracy of the Prognosis in Palliative Care Study (PiPS), Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI), Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP) and Objective Prognostic Score (OPS) for patients with far advanced cancer in a palliative care unit in South Korea.

METHODS

This prospective study included patients with far advanced cancer who were admitted to a single palliative care unit at the National University Hospital. Variables for calculating the prognostic models were recorded by a palliative care physician. The survival rate was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of each model were calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 160 patients participated. There was a significant difference in survival rates across all groups, each categorised through the five prognostic models. The overall accuracy (OA) of the prognostic models ranged between 54.5% and 77.6%. The OA of clinicians' predictions of survival ranged between 61.9% and 81.3%.

CONCLUSION

The PiPS, PPI, PaP and OPS were successfully validated in a palliative care unit of South Korea. There was no difference in accuracy between the prognostic models, and OA tended to be lower than in previous studies.

"The surprise questions" using variable time frames in hospitalized patients with advanced cancer

OBJECTIVE

Several studies supported the usefulness of "the surprise question" in terms of 1-year mortality of patients. "The surprise question" requires a "Yes" or "No" answer to the question "Would I be surprised if this patient died in [specific time frame]." However, the 1-year time frame is often too long for advanced cancer patients seen by palliative care personnel. "The surprise question" with shorter time frames is needed for decision making. We examined the accuracy of "the surprise question" for 7-day, 21-day, and 42-day survival in hospitalized patients admitted to palliative care units (PCUs).

METHOD

This was a prospective multicenter cohort study of 130 adult patients with advanced cancer admitted to 7 hospital-based PCUs in South Korea. The accuracy of "the surprise question" was compared with that of the temporal question for clinician's prediction of survival.

RESULTS

We analyzed 130 inpatients who died in PCUs during the study period. The median survival was 21.0 days. The sensitivity, specificity, and overall accuracy for the 7-day "the surprise question" were 46.7, 88.7, and 83.9%, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and overall accuracy for the 7-day temporal question were 6.7, 98.3, and 87.7%, respectively. The c-indices of the 7-day "the surprise question" and 7-day temporal question were 0.662 (95% CI: 0.539-0.785) and 0.521 (95% CI: 0.464-0.579), respectively. The c-indices of the 42-day "the surprise question" and 42-day temporal question were 0.554 (95% CI: 0.509-0.599) and 0.616 (95% CI: 0.569-0.663), respectively.

SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS

Surprisingly, "the surprise questions" and temporal questions had similar accuracies. The high specificities for the 7-day "the surprise question" and 7- and 21-day temporal question suggest they may be useful to rule in death if positive.

Validation of the Palliative Prognostic Index, Performance Status-Based Palliative Prognostic Index and Chinese Prognostic Scale in a home palliative care setting for patients with advanced cancer in China

BACKGROUND

The predictive value of the prognostic tool for patients with advanced cancer is uncertain in mainland China, especially in the home-based palliative care (HPC) setting. This study aimed to compare the accuracy of the Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI), the Performance Status-Based Palliative Prognostic Index (PS-PPI), and the Chinese Prognosis Scale (ChPS) for patients with advanced cancer in the HPC setting in mainland China.

METHODS

Patients with advanced cancer admitted to the hospice center of Yuebei People's Hospital between January 2014 and December 2018 were retrospectively calculated the scores according to the three prognostic tools. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare survival times among different risk groups. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to assess the predictive value. The accuracy of 21-, 42- and 90-day survival was compared among the three prognostic tools.

RESULTS

A total of 1863 patients were included. Survival time among the risk groups of all prognostic tools was significantly different from each other except for the PPI. The AUROC of the ChPS was significantly higher than that of the PPI and PS-PPI for 7-, 14, 21-, 42-, 90-, 120-, 150- and 180-day survival (P < 0.05). The AUROC of the PPI and PS-PPI were not significantly different from each other (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The ChPS is more suitable than the PPI and PS-PPI for advanced cancer patients in the HPC setting. More researches are needed to verify the predictive value of the ChPS, PPI, and PS-PPI in the HPC setting in the future.

Dealing with prognostic uncertainty: the role of prognostic models and websites for patients with advanced cancer

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To provide an updated overview of prognostic models in advanced cancer and highlight the role of prognostic calculators.

RECENT FINDINGS

In the advanced cancer setting, many important healthcare decisions are driven by a patient's prognosis. However, there is much uncertainty in formulating prognosis, particularly in the era of novel cancer therapeutics. Multiple prognostic models have been validated for patients seen by palliative care and have a life expectancy of a few months or less, such as the Palliative Performance Scale, Palliative Prognostic Score, Palliative Prognostic Index, Objective Prognostic Score, and Prognosis in Palliative Care Study Predictor. However, these models are seldom used in clinical practice because of challenges related to limited accuracy when applied individually and difficulties with model selection, computation, and interpretation. Online prognostic calculators emerge as tools to facilitate knowledge translation by overcoming the above challenges. For example, www.predictsurvival.com provides the output for seven prognostic indexes simultaneously based on 11 variables.

SUMMARY

Prognostic models and prognostic websites are currently available to augment prognostication in the advanced cancer setting. Further studies are needed to examine their impact on prognostic accuracy, confidence, and clinical outcomes.

Korean Physicians' Perspectives on Prognostication in Palliative Care: A Qualitative Study

BACKGROUND

Prognostication is an essential component of palliative care for patients with advanced cancer but also poses challenges. Little is known about physicians' perspectives on prognostication and prognostic tools used in palliative care practice in Eastern countries.

OBJECTIVES

To explore Korean physicians' perspectives and experiences with prognostication in their palliative care practices.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews were conducted in Korea in 11 palliative care physicians. A constant comparative and grounded theory approach was used to derive themes from interview transcripts.

RESULTS

Participants on average had 6.4 (SD = 4.5, range 0.5-15) years of hospice and palliative care experience. We identified 4 main themes about prognostication: (1) the importance of prognostication (to help patients and their families prepare for death, to determine the appropriate time of transition to hospice care, to facilitate appropriate decision making, and to facilitate communication with patients and their families); (2) difficulties of prognostication (discomfort estimating the exact date of death); (3) basis of prognostication (clinical prediction of survival as well as prognostic scores); and (4) areas for further research (need for a simpler scoring system or parameters to predict survival with greater certainty).

CONCLUSION

Palliative care physicians in Korea reported similar perceptions about the role and challenges inherent in prognostication compared to clinicians in Western cultures. However, they emphasize the need to predict final days to keep families with dying patients, reflecting family-centered aspects of Asian culture. They reported frustrations with inaccurate prognostication schemas and called for the development of simpler, more accurate predictors as a focus of future research.