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Li J, Weng C, Wang T, Lu W, Lin L, Wu J, Cheng G, Hu Q, Guo Y. Trends in lower extremity peripheral arterial disease incidence since 1990 and forecasting future statistics using Global Burden of Disease 2021: a time-series analysis. Front Public Health 2025; 13:1521927. [PMID: 40270746 PMCID: PMC12014615 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1521927] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2024] [Accepted: 03/31/2025] [Indexed: 04/25/2025] Open
Abstract
Background Lower extremity peripheral arterial disease (LEPAD) significantly affects quality of life and is associated with severe cardiovascular risks. Studies on its long-term incidence trends are limited. Objective This study aims to analyze global trends in LEPAD incidence from 1990 to 2021 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database and to forecast future trends between 2022 and 2030, providing insights for healthcare planning and resource allocation. Methods Data were extracted from the GBD 2021 database by genders, age groups, continents, and sociodemographic index (SDI) levels. Using Joinpoint regression analysis, annual percentage changes (APC) and average annual percentage changes (AAPC) were calculated to assess age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) historical trends. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to predict ASIR between 2022 and 2030. Results The global ASIR of LEPAD showed a slight decrease from 1990 to 2021, though regional differences were notable. In 2021, the highest ASIR was in the Americas, while Africa had the lowest. Gender and age disparities were significant, and females and older populations were at higher risk. ARIMA predictions indicate a stable ASIR trend from 2025 onward. Conclusion This study provides a comprehensive analysis of LEPAD incidence trends and a forecast through 2030. While global incidence may stabilize, the rising burden in lower-income countries calls for prioritizing early intervention and health education in high-risk regions. These findings emphasize the importance of targeted resource allocation and strategic prevention efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiacheng Li
- Department of Vascular Surgery, The Quzhou Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Quzhou People’s Hospital, Quzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Chengxin Weng
- Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of General Surgery, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Tiehao Wang
- Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of General Surgery, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Wei Lu
- Department of Vascular Surgery, The Quzhou Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Quzhou People’s Hospital, Quzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Lihong Lin
- Department of Nosocomial Infection Control, The Quzhou Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Quzhou People’s Hospital, Quzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Jiawen Wu
- Department of Vascular Surgery, The Quzhou Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Quzhou People’s Hospital, Quzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Guobing Cheng
- Department of Vascular Surgery, The Quzhou Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Quzhou People’s Hospital, Quzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Qiang Hu
- Department of Vascular Surgery, The Quzhou Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Quzhou People’s Hospital, Quzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Yi Guo
- Department of Nosocomial Infection Control, The Quzhou Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Quzhou People’s Hospital, Quzhou, Zhejiang, China
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Ning Y, Hu J, Zhu Y, Tang W, Yan S, Li H, Zhang Z, Lu C, Ren K, Shi P, Yao T, Wang Q, Zhao Y, Gao T, Zhang R, Dong H. NIR-II imaging-based detection of early changes in lower limb perfusion in type 2 diabetes patients without peripheral artery disease. Diabetes Res Clin Pract 2025; 221:112038. [PMID: 39929338 DOI: 10.1016/j.diabres.2025.112038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2024] [Revised: 01/20/2025] [Accepted: 02/03/2025] [Indexed: 02/14/2025]
Abstract
AIMS The formation of lower limb arterial plaques, exacerbated by type 2 diabetes (T2D), represents an early stage of lower limb peripheral artery disease (PAD). Second near-infrared region (NIR-II) imaging is an emerging technique with high sensitivity for detecting perfusion levels. This study explores the value of NIR-II imaging in identifying perfusion changes due to lower extremity arterial plaques in T2D patients without PAD. METHODS NIR-II imaging with indocyanine green (ICG) was conducted on 120 T2D patients, who were categorized into two groups: plaque and non-plaque. NIR-II parameters and clinical characteristics were analyzed between the two groups to identify significant predictors of lower extremity arterial plaques. RESULTS Six NIR-II imaging parameters (T start, T 1/2, Tmax, Ingress rate, Egress, and Egress rate) showed significant differences and diagnostic efficacy between the two groups. Three NIR-II parameters (T start, Egress, and Egress rate) and two clinical characteristics (age and sex) were identified as independent predictors of lower limb artery plaques. The nomogram showed that a combined model with NIR-II parameters and clinical characteristics exhibited higher diagnostic efficacy. CONCLUSION NIR-II imaging can effectively detect early perfusion changes in T2D patients, showing great potential for pre-diagnosis of individuals at high risk for PAD.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yijie Ning
- Department of Vascular Surgery, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China; Vascular Institute of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China
| | - Jie Hu
- Department of Vascular Surgery, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China; Vascular Institute of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China
| | - Yikun Zhu
- Department of Endocrinology, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China
| | - Wei Tang
- Department of Endocrinology, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China
| | - Sheng Yan
- Department of Vascular Surgery, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China; Vascular Institute of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China
| | - Haifeng Li
- Department of Vascular Surgery, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China; Vascular Institute of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China
| | - Zeyu Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Big Data-Based Precision Medicine of Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, School of Engineering Medicine, Beihang University, Beijing, China
| | - Chuanlong Lu
- Department of Vascular Surgery, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China; Vascular Institute of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China
| | - Keyao Ren
- Department of Endocrinology, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China
| | - Peilu Shi
- Department of Vascular Surgery, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China; Vascular Institute of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China
| | - Tian Yao
- First Hospital/First Clinical Medical College of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China
| | - Qian Wang
- Department of Neurology, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China
| | - Yan Zhao
- Department of Vascular Surgery, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China; Vascular Institute of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China
| | - Tingting Gao
- Department of Vascular Surgery, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China; Vascular Institute of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China
| | - Ruijing Zhang
- Vascular Institute of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China.; Department of Nephrology, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China.
| | - Honglin Dong
- Department of Vascular Surgery, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China; Vascular Institute of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China..
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Uwumiro F, Okpujie V, Nebuwa C, Umoudoh U, Asobara E, Aniaku E, Makata G, Olukorode J. Emerging trends in nationwide mortality, limb loss, and resource utilization for critical limb ischemia in young adults. CARDIOVASCULAR REVASCULARIZATION MEDICINE 2024; 67:41-48. [PMID: 38616461 DOI: 10.1016/j.carrev.2024.04.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2023] [Revised: 03/26/2024] [Accepted: 04/04/2024] [Indexed: 04/16/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES Recent trends indicate a rise in the incidence of critical limb ischemia (CLI) among younger adults. This study examines trends in CLI hospitalization and outcomes among young adults with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) in the United States. METHODS Adult hospitalizations (18-40 years) for PAD/CLI were analyzed from the 2016-2020 nationwide inpatient sample database using ICD-10 codes. Rates were reported per 1000 PAD or 100,000 cardiovascular disease admissions. Outcomes included trends in mortality, major amputations, revascularization, length of hospital stay (LOS), and hospital costs (THC). We used the Jonckheere-Terpstra tests for trend analysis and adjusted costs to the 2020 dollar using the consumer price index. RESULTS Approximately 63,045 PAD and 20,455 CLI admissions were analyzed. The mean age of the CLI cohort was 32.7 ± 3 years. The majority (12,907; 63.1 %) were female and white (11,843; 57.9 %). Annual CLI rates showed an uptrend with 3265 hospitalizations (227 per 1000 PAD hospitalizations, 22.7 %) in 2016 to 4474 (252 per 1000 PAD hospitalizations, 25.2 %) in 2020 (Ptrend<0.001), along with an increase in PAD admissions from 14,405 (188 per 100,000, 0.19 %) in 2016 to 17,745 (232 per 100,000, 0.23 %%) in 2020 (Ptrend<0.0001). Annual in-hospital mortality increased from 570 (2.8 %) in 2016 to 803 (3.9 %) in 2020 (Ptrend = 0.001) while amputations increased from 1084 (33.2 %) in 2016 to 1995 (44.6 %) in 2020 (Ptrend<0.001). Mean LOS increased from 5.1 (SD 2.7) days in 2016 to 6.5 (SD 0.9) days in 2020 (Ptrend = 0.002). The mean THC for CLI increased from $50,873 to $69,262 in 2020 (Ptrend<0.001). The endovascular revascularization rates decreased from 11.5 % (525 cases) in 2016 to 10.7 % (635 cases) in 2020 (Ptrend = 0.025). Surgical revascularization rates also increased from 4.9 % (225 cases) in 2016 to 10.4 % (600 cases) in 2020 (Ptrend = 0.041). CONCLUSION Hospitalization and outcomes for CLI worsened among young adults during the study period. There is an urgent need to enhance surveillance for risk factors of PAD in this age group.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fidelis Uwumiro
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin, Nigeria.
| | - Victory Okpujie
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin, Nigeria
| | - Chikodili Nebuwa
- Department of Internal Medicine, Nuvance Health, Vassar Brothers Medical Center, Poughkeepsie, NY, USA
| | - Uwakmfonabasi Umoudoh
- Department of Internal Medicine, Southport District Hospital, Southport, Merseyside, UK
| | - Evaristus Asobara
- Department of Internal Medicine, Nnamdi Azikiwe University Teaching Hospital, Awka, Nigeria
| | - Emmanuel Aniaku
- Department of Internal Medicine, Al-darb General Hospital, Jazan Region, Saudi Arabia
| | - Golibe Makata
- Department of Internal Medicine, Enugu State University of Science and Technology Teaching Hospital, Enugu, Nigeria
| | - John Olukorode
- Department of Internal Medicine, Benjamin S Carson College of Health and Medical Sciences, Babcock University, Ogun State, Nigeria
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