Modeling of wildlife-associated zoonoses: applications and caveats

Environmental spillover of emerging viruses: Is it true?

The concept of environmental "spillover" of pathogens to humans is widely used in the scientific literature about emerging diseases with the idea that it is scientifically proven. However, the exact characterization of the mechanism of spillover is simply lacking. A systematic review retrieved 688 articles using this term. The systematic analysis revealed an irreducible polysemy covering ten different definitions. It also demonstrated the absence of explicit definition in most of the articles, and even antinomies. A modeling analysis of the various processes described by these ten definitions showed that none of them corresponded to the complete trajectory leading to the emergence of a disease. There is no article demonstrating a mechanism of spillover. There are only ten articles proposing ideas on how a putative spillover could work but they merely are intellectual constructions. All other articles only reuse the term with no demonstration. It is essential to understand that since there is no scientific concept behind the "spillover", it might be dangerous to base public health and public protection against future pandemics on it.

One Health: navigating plague in Madagascar amidst COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Africa sees the surge of plague cases in recent decades, with hotspots in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and Peru. A rodent-borne scourge, the bacterial infection known as plague is transmitted to humans via the sneaky bites of fleas, caused by Yersinia pestis. Bubonic plague has a case fatality rate of 20.8% with treatment, but in places such as Madagascar the mortality rate can increase to 40-70% without treatment.

MAIN TEXT

Tragedy strikes in the Ambohidratrimo district as three lives are claimed by the plague outbreak and three more fight for survival in the hospitals, including one man in critical condition, from the Ambohimiadana, Antsaharasty, and Ampanotokana communes, bringing the total plague victims in the area to a grim to five. Presently, the biggest concern is the potential plague spread among humans during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Effective disease control can be achieved through training and empowering local leaders and healthcare providers in rural areas, implementing strategies to reduce human-rodent interactions, promoting water, sanitation and hygiene practices (WASH) practices, and carrying out robust vector, reservoir and pest control, diversified animal surveillance along with human surveillance should be done to more extensively to fill the lacunae of knowledge regarding the animal to human transmission. The lack of diagnostic laboratories equipped represents a major hurdle in the early detection of plague in rural areas. To effectively combat plague, these tests must be made more widely available. Additionally, raising awareness among the general population through various means such as campaigns, posters and social media about the signs, symptoms, prevention, and infection control during funerals would greatly decrease the number of cases. Furthermore, healthcare professionals should be trained on the latest methods of identifying cases, controlling infections and protecting themselves from the disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite being endemic to Madagascar, the outbreak's pace is unparalleled, and it may spread to non-endemic areas. The utilization of a One Health strategy that encompasses various disciplines is crucial for minimizing catastrophe risk, antibiotic resistance, and outbreak readiness. Collaboration across sectors and proper planning ensures efficient and consistent communication, risk management, and credibility during disease outbreaks.

Neglected tropical diseases risk correlates with poverty and early ecosystem destruction

BACKGROUND

Neglected tropical diseases affect the most vulnerable populations and cause chronic and debilitating disorders. Socioeconomic vulnerability is a well-known and important determinant of neglected tropical diseases. For example, poverty and sanitation could influence parasite transmission. Nevertheless, the quantitative impact of socioeconomic conditions on disease transmission risk remains poorly explored.

METHODS

This study investigated the role of socioeconomic variables in the predictive capacity of risk models of neglected tropical zoonoses using a decade of epidemiological data (2007-2018) from Brazil. Vector-borne diseases investigated in this study included dengue, malaria, Chagas disease, leishmaniasis, and Brazilian spotted fever, while directly-transmitted zoonotic diseases included schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, and hantaviruses. Environmental and socioeconomic predictors were combined with infectious disease data to build environmental and socioenvironmental sets of ecological niche models and their performances were compared.

RESULTS

Socioeconomic variables were found to be as important as environmental variables in influencing the estimated likelihood of disease transmission across large spatial scales. The combination of socioeconomic and environmental variables improved overall model accuracy (or predictive power) by 10% on average (P < 0.01), reaching a maximum of 18% in the case of dengue fever. Gross domestic product was the most important socioeconomic variable (37% relative variable importance, all individual models exhibited P < 0.00), showing a decreasing relationship with disease indicating poverty as a major factor for disease transmission. Loss of natural vegetation cover between 2008 and 2018 was the most important environmental variable (42% relative variable importance, P < 0.05) among environmental models, exhibiting a decreasing relationship with disease probability, showing that these diseases are especially prevalent in areas where natural ecosystem destruction is on its initial stages and lower when ecosystem destruction is on more advanced stages.

CONCLUSIONS

Destruction of natural ecosystems coupled with low income explain macro-scale neglected tropical and zoonotic disease probability in Brazil. Addition of socioeconomic variables improves transmission risk forecasts on tandem with environmental variables. Our results highlight that to efficiently address neglected tropical diseases, public health strategies must target both reduction of poverty and cessation of destruction of natural forests and savannas.

Anthrax bio-surveillance of livestock in Arua District, Uganda, 2017-2018

Anthrax, caused by Bacillus anthracis, is a widespread zoonotic disease with many human cases, especially in developing countries. Even with its global distribution, anthrax is a neglected disease with scarce information about its actual impact on the community level. Due to the ecological dynamics of anthrax transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface, the Sub-Saharan Africa region becomes a high-risk zone for maintaining and acquiring the disease. In this regard, some subregions of Uganda are endemic to anthrax with regular seasonal trends. However, there is scarce data about anthrax outbreaks in Uganda. Here, we confirmed the presence of B. anthracis in several livestock samples after a suspected anthrax outbreak among livestock and humans in Arua District. Additionally, we explored the potential risk factors of anthrax through a survey within the community kraals. We provide evidence that the most affected livestock species during the Arua outbreak were cattle (86%) compared to the rest of the livestock species present in the area. Moreover, the farmers' education level and the presence of people's anthrax cases were the most critical factors determining the disease's knowledge and awareness. Consequently, the lack of understanding of the ecology of anthrax may contribute to the spread of the infection between livestock and humans, and it is critical to reducing the presence and persistence of the B. anthracis spores in the environment. Finally, we discuss the increasingly recognized necessity to strengthen global capacity using a One Health approach to prevent, detect, control, and respond to public threats in Uganda.

"Does a Respiratory Virus Have an Ecological Niche, and If So, Can It Be Mapped?" Yes and Yes

Although the utility of Ecological Niche Models (ENM) and Species Distribution Models (SDM) has been demonstrated in many ecological applications, their suitability for modelling epidemics or pandemics, such as SARS-Cov-2, has been questioned. In this paper, contrary to this viewpoint, we show that ENMs and SDMs can be created that can describe the evolution of pandemics, both in space and time. As an illustrative use case, we create models for predicting confirmed cases of COVID-19, viewed as our target "species", in Mexico through 2020 and 2021, showing that the models are predictive in both space and time. In order to achieve this, we extend a recently developed Bayesian framework for niche modelling, to include: (i) dynamic, non-equilibrium "species" distributions; (ii) a wider set of habitat variables, including behavioural, socio-economic and socio-demographic variables, as well as standard climatic variables; (iii) distinct models and associated niches for different species characteristics, showing how the niche, as deduced through presence-absence data, can differ from that deduced from abundance data. We show that the niche associated with those places with the highest abundance of cases has been highly conserved throughout the pandemic, while the inferred niche associated with presence of cases has been changing. Finally, we show how causal chains can be inferred and confounding identified by showing that behavioural and social factors are much more predictive than climate and that, further, the latter is confounded by the former.

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Anthrax, Vietnam, 1990–2015

Anthrax is a priority zoonosis for control in Vietnam. The geographic distribution of anthrax remains to be defined, challenging our ability to target areas for control. We analyzed human anthrax cases in Vietnam to obtain anthrax incidence at the national and provincial level. Nationally, the trendline for cases remained at ≈61 cases/year throughout the 26 years of available data, indicating control efforts are not effectively reducing disease burden over time. Most anthrax cases occurred in the Northern Midlands and Mountainous regions, and the provinces of Lai Chau, Dien Bien, Lao Cai, Ha Giang, Cao Bang, and Son La experienced some of the highest incidence rates. Based on spatial Bayes smoothed maps, every region of Vietnam experienced human anthrax cases during the study period. Clarifying the distribution of anthrax in Vietnam will enable us to better identify risk areas for improved surveillance, rapid clinical care, and livestock vaccination campaigns.

Characterization of Bacillus anthracis replication and persistence on environmental substrates associated with wildlife anthrax outbreaks

Anthrax is a zoonosis caused by the environmentally maintained, spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis, affecting humans, livestock, and wildlife nearly worldwide. Bacterial spores are ingested, inhaled, and may be mechanically transmitted by biting insects or injection as occurs during heroin-associated human cases. Herbivorous hoofstock are very susceptible to anthrax. When these hosts die of anthrax, a localized infectious zone (LIZ) forms in the area surrounding the carcass as it is scavenged and decomposes, where viable populations of vegetative B. anthracis and spores contaminate the environment. In many settings, necrophagous flies contaminate the outer carcass, surrounding soils, and vegetation with viable pathogen while scavenging. Field observations in Texas have confirmed this process and identified primary browse species (e.g., persimmon) are contaminated. However, there are limited data available on B. anthracis survival on environmental substrates immediately following host death at a LIZ. Toward this, we simulated fly contamination by inoculating live-attenuated, fully virulent laboratory-adapted, and fully virulent wild B. anthracis strains on untreated leaves and rocks for 2, 5, and 7 days. At each time point after inoculation, the number of vegetative cells and spores were determined. Sporulation rates were extracted from these different time points to enable comparison of sporulation speeds between B. anthracis strains with different natural histories. We found all B. anthracis strains used in this study could multiply for 2 or more days post inoculation and persist on leaves and rocks for at least seven days with variation by strain. We found differences in sporulation rates between laboratory-adapted strains and wild isolates, with the live-attenuated strain sporulating fastest, followed by the wild isolates, then laboratory-adapted virulent strains. Extrapolating our wild strain lab results to potential contamination, a single blow fly may contaminate leaves with up to 8.62 x 105 spores per day and a single carcass may host thousands of flies. Replication outside of the carcass and rapid sporulation confirms the LIZ extends beyond the carcass for several days after formation and supports the necrophagous fly transmission pathway for amplifying cases during an outbreak. We note caution must be taken when extrapolating replication and sporulation rates from live-attenuated and laboratory-adapted strains of B. anthracis.

Understanding the distribution and fine-scale habitat selection of mesocarnivores along a habitat quality gradient in western Himalaya

Background: Human activities have resulted in a rapid increase of modified habitats in proximity to wildlife habitats in the Himalaya. However, it is crucial to understand the extent to which human habitat modification affects wildlife. Mesocarnivores generally possess broader niches than large carnivores and adapt quickly to human activities. Here, we use a case study in the western Himalaya to test the hypothesis that human disturbance influenced mesocarnivore habitat use. Methods: We used camera trapping and mitochondrial DNA-based species identification from faecal samples to obtain mesocarnivore detections. We then compared the responses of mesocarnivores between an anthropogenic site and a less disturbed park along a contiguous gradient in habitat quality. The non-linear pattern in species-specific habitat selection and factors responsible for space usage around villages was captured using hierarchical generalized additive modelling (HGAM) and non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) ordination. Results: Wildlife occurrences along the gradient varied by species. Leopard cat and red fox were the only terrestrial mesocarnivores that occurred in both anthropogenic site and park. We found a shift in habitat selection from less disturbed habitat in the park to disturbed habitat in anthropogenic site for the species detected in both the habitat types. For instance, red fox showed habitat selection towards high terrain ruggedness (0.5 to 0.7 TRI) and low NDVI (-0.05 to 0.2) in the park but no such specific selection in anthropogenic site. Further, leopard cat showed habitat selection towards moderate slope (20°) and medium NDVI (0.5) in park but no prominent habitat selections in anthropogenic site. The results revealed their constrained behaviour which was further supported by the intensive site usage close to houses, agricultural fields and human trails in villages. Conclusions: Our results indicate shifts in habitat selection and intensive site usage by mesocarnivores in the human-modified habitat. In future, this suggests the possibility of conflict and disease spread affecting both the people and wildlife. Therefore, this study highlights the requisite to test the wildlife responses to rapidly growing human expansions in modified habitats to understand the extent of impact. The management strategies need to have an integrated focus for further expansions of modified habitat and garbage disposal strategies, especially in the human-wildlife interface area.

Messaging Should Reflect the Nuanced Relationship between Land Change and Zoonotic Disease Risk

A hallmark of the media publicity surrounding COVID-19 has been the message that land change causes zoonotic diseases to spill over from wild animals to humans. The secondary peer-reviewed literature sends a similar message. However, as indicated in the primary peer-reviewed literature, the complexity of interacting variables involved in zoonotic disease spillover makes it unlikely for such a claim to be universally applicable. The secondary peer-reviewed literature and the mainstream media also differ markedly from the primary peer-reviewed literature in their lack of nuance in messaging about the relationship between land change and spillover risk. We advocate accurate, nuanced messaging for the sake of the local communities at greatest risk from zoonotic disease, for the sake of scientific credibility, and so that proportionate attention may be given to other possible drivers of spillover risk.

Real-Time Infectious Disease Modeling to Inform Emergency Public Health Decision Making

Infectious disease transmission is a nonlinear process with complex, sometimes unintuitive dynamics. Modeling can transform information about a disease process and its parameters into quantitative projections that help decision makers compare public health response options. However, modelers face methodologic challenges, data challenges, and communication challenges, which are exacerbated under the time constraints of a public health emergency. We review methods, applications, challenges and opportunities for real-time infectious disease modeling during public health emergencies, with examples drawn from the two deadliest pandemics in recent history: HIV/AIDS and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Public Health, Volume 43 is April 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Assessment of the potential establishment of Lyme endemic cycles in Mexico

Although Lyme disease is currently classified as exotic in Mexico, recent studies have suggested that it might be endemic there. We assessed the potential risk for the establishment of Borrelia burgdorferi transmission in Mexico. To identify the potential routes of B. burgdorferi spread, Complex Inference Networks were used initially to identify potential vector-host interactions between hard ticks (Ixodes) and migratory birds in the U.S., and a model for predicting the most important potential bird hosts of hard ticks was then obtained. By using network metrics, keystone-vectors were identified as those species with highest connectivity within and between network communities and had the potential to keep the pathogen circulating with many birds and to be dispersed to several regions. The climatic profile where these interactions occur in the U.S. was characterized and a geographic model for each keystone-vector was built. The accuracy of these models to predict areas where hard ticks have been reported positive for B. burgdorferi allows one to identify areas of greater risk of Lyme disease emergence. These hard tick-bird interactions and their climatic profile were mapped into the winter ranges of birds in Mexico. Thus, those regions in Mexico with the highest potential for becoming endemic areas of Lyme disease through the arrival of hard ticks and birds infected by B. burgdorferi were identified. These areas are candidates for future surveillance programs.

Occurrence of mesocarnivores in montane sky islands: How spatial and temporal overlap informs rabies management in a regional hotspot

Interspecific interactions among mesocarnivores can influence community dynamics and resource partitioning. Insights into these interactions can enhance understanding of local ecological processes that have impacts on pathogen transmission, such as the rabies lyssavirus. Host species ecology can provide an important baseline for disease management strategies especially in biologically diverse ecosystems and heterogeneous landscapes. We used a mesocarnivore guild native to the southwestern United States, a regional rabies hotspot, that are prone to rabies outbreaks as our study system. Gray foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis), bobcats (Lynx rufus), and coyotes (Canis latrans) share large portions of their geographic ranges and can compete for resources, occupy similar niches, and influence population dynamics of each other. We deployed 80 cameras across two mountain ranges in Arizona, stratified by vegetation type. We used two-stage modeling to gain insight into species occurrence and co-occurrence patterns. There was strong evidence for the effects of elevation, season, and temperature impacting detection probability of all four species, with understory height and canopy cover also influencing gray foxes and skunks. For all four mesocarnivores, a second stage multi-species co-occurrence model better explained patterns of detection than the single-species occurrence model. These four species are influencing the space use of each other and are likely competing for resources seasonally. We did not observe spatial partitioning between these competitors, likely due to an abundance of cover and food resources in the biologically diverse system we studied. From our results we can draw inferences on community dynamics to inform rabies management in a regional hotspot. Understanding environmental factors in disease hotspots can provide useful information to develop more reliable early-warning systems for viral outbreaks. We recommend that disease management focus on delivering oral vaccine baits onto the landscape when natural food resources are less abundant, specifically during the two drier seasons in Arizona (pre-monsoon spring and autumn) to maximize intake by all mesocarnivores.

Evolution of pathogen tolerance and emerging infections: A missing experimental paradigm

Researchers worldwide are repeatedly warning us against future zoonotic diseases resulting from humankind's insurgence into natural ecosystems. The same zoonotic pathogens that cause severe infections in a human host frequently fail to produce any disease outcome in their natural hosts. What precise features of the immune system enable natural reservoirs to carry these pathogens so efficiently? To understand these effects, we highlight the importance of tracing the evolutionary basis of pathogen tolerance in reservoir hosts, while drawing implications from their diverse physiological and life-history traits, and ecological contexts of host-pathogen interactions. Long-term co-evolution might allow reservoir hosts to modulate immunity and evolve tolerance to zoonotic pathogens, increasing their circulation and infectious period. Such processes can also create a genetically diverse pathogen pool by allowing more mutations and genetic exchanges between circulating strains, thereby harboring rare alive-on-arrival variants with extended infectivity to new hosts (i.e., spillover). Finally, we end by underscoring the indispensability of a large multidisciplinary empirical framework to explore the proposed link between evolved tolerance, pathogen prevalence, and spillover in the wild.

Impact of Landscape on Host-Parasite Genetic Diversity and Distribution Using the Puumala orthohantavirus-Bank Vole System

In nature, host specificity has a strong impact on the parasite's distribution, prevalence, and genetic diversity. The host's population dynamics is expected to shape the distribution of host-specific parasites. In turn, the parasite's genetic structure is predicted to mirror that of the host. Here, we study the tandem Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV)-bank vole system. The genetic diversity of 310 bank voles and 33 PUUV isolates from 10 characterized localities of Northeast France was assessed. Our findings show that the genetic diversity of both PUUV and voles, was positively correlated with forest coverage and contiguity of habitats. While the genetic diversity of voles was weakly structured in space, that of PUUV was found to be strongly structured, suggesting that the dispersion of voles was not sufficient to ensure a broad PUUV dissemination. Genetic diversity of PUUV was mainly shaped by purifying selection. Genetic drift and extinction events were better reflected than local adaptation of PUUV. These contrasting patterns of microevolution have important consequences for the understanding of PUUV distribution and epidemiology.

Transmission modelling of environmentally persistent zoonotic diseases: a systematic review

Transmission of many infectious diseases depends on interactions between humans, animals, and the environment. Incorporating these complex processes in transmission dynamic models can help inform policy and disease control interventions. We identified 20 diseases involving environmentally persistent pathogens (ie, pathogens that survive for more than 48 h in the environment and can cause subsequent human infections), of which indirect transmission can occur from animals to humans via the environment. Using a systematic approach, we critically appraised dynamic transmission models for environmentally persistent zoonotic diseases to quantify traits of models across diseases. 210 transmission modelling studies were identified and most studies considered diseases of domestic animals or high-income settings, or both. We found that less than half of studies validated their models to real-world data, and environmental data on pathogen persistence was rarely incorporated. Model structures varied, with few studies considering the animal-human-environment interface of transmission in the context of a One Health framework. This Review highlights the need for more data-driven modelling of these diseases and a holistic One Health approach to model these pathogens to inform disease prevention and control strategies.

Modeling the spatial distribution of anthrax in southern Kenya

BACKGROUND

Anthrax is an important zoonotic disease in Kenya associated with high animal and public health burden and widespread socio-economic impacts. The disease occurs in sporadic outbreaks that involve livestock, wildlife, and humans, but knowledge on factors that affect the geographic distribution of these outbreaks is limited, challenging public health intervention planning.

METHODS

Anthrax surveillance data reported in southern Kenya from 2011 to 2017 were modeled using a boosted regression trees (BRT) framework. An ensemble of 100 BRT experiments was developed using a variable set of 18 environmental covariates and 69 unique anthrax locations. Model performance was evaluated using AUC (area under the curve) ROC (receiver operating characteristics) curves.

RESULTS

Cattle density, rainfall of wettest month, soil clay content, soil pH, soil organic carbon, length of longest dry season, vegetation index, temperature seasonality, in order, were identified as key variables for predicting environmental suitability for anthrax in the region. BRTs performed well with a mean AUC of 0.8. Areas highly suitable for anthrax were predicted predominantly in the southwestern region around the shared Kenya-Tanzania border and a belt through the regions and highlands in central Kenya. These suitable regions extend westwards to cover large areas in western highlands and the western regions around Lake Victoria and bordering Uganda. The entire eastern and lower-eastern regions towards the coastal region were predicted to have lower suitability for anthrax.

CONCLUSION

These modeling efforts identified areas of anthrax suitability across southern Kenya, including high and medium agricultural potential regions and wildlife parks, important for tourism and foreign exchange. These predictions are useful for policy makers in designing targeted surveillance and/or control interventions in Kenya. We thank the staff of Directorate of Veterinary Services under the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, for collecting and providing the anthrax historical occurrence data.

Identification of Escherichia coli and Related Enterobacteriaceae and Examination of Their Phenotypic Antimicrobial Resistance Patterns: A Pilot Study at A Wildlife-Livestock Interface in Lusaka, Zambia

A cross-sectional study was used to identify and assess prevalence and phenotypic antimicrobial resistance (AMR) profiles of Escherichia coli and other enterobacteria isolated from healthy wildlife and livestock cohabiting at a 10,000 acres game ranch near Lusaka, Zambia. Purposive sampling was used to select wildlife and livestock based on similarities in behavior, grazing habits and close interactions with humans. Isolates (n = 66) from fecal samples collected between April and August 2018 (n = 84) were examined following modified protocols for bacteria isolation, biochemical identification, molecular detection, phylogenetic analysis, and antimicrobial susceptibility testing by disc diffusion method. Data were analyzed using R software, Genetyx ver.12 and Mega 6. Using Applied Profile Index 20E kit for biochemical identification, polymerase chain reaction assay and sequencing, sixty-six isolates were identified to species level, of which Escherichia coli (72.7%, 48/66), E. fergusonii (1.5%, 1/66), Shigella sonnei (22.7%, 14/66), Sh. flexinerri (1.5%, 1/66) and Enterobacteriaceae bacterium (1.5%, 1/66), and their relationships were illustrated in a phylogenetic tree. Phenotypic antimicrobial resistance or intermediate sensitivity expression to at least one antimicrobial agent was detected in 89.6% of the E. coli, and 73.3% of the Shigella isolates. The E. coli isolates exhibited the highest resistance rates to ampicillin (27%), ceftazidime (14.3%), cefotaxime (9.5%), and kanamycin (9.5%). Multidrug resistance (MDR) was detected in 18.8% of E. coli isolates while only 13.3% Shigella isolates showed MDR. The MDR was detected among isolates from impala and ostrich (wild animals in which no antimicrobial treatment was used), and in isolates from cattle, pigs, and goats (domesticated animals). This study indicates the possible transmission of drug-resistant microorganisms between animals cohabiting at the wildlife–livestock interface. It emphasizes the need for further investigation of the role of wildlife in the development and transmission of AMR, which is an issue of global concern.

Methods for Rapid Mobility Estimation to Support Outbreak Response

When pressed for time, outbreak investigators often use homogeneous mixing models to model infectious diseases in data-poor regions. But recent outbreaks such as the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa have shown the limitations of this approach in an era of increasing urbanization and connectivity. Both outbreak detection and predictive modeling depend on realistic estimates of human and disease mobility, but these data are difficult to acquire in a timely manner. This is especially true when dealing with an emerging outbreak in an under-resourced nation. Weighted travel networks with realistic estimates for population flows are often proprietary, expensive, or nonexistent. Here we propose a method for rapidly generating a mobility model from open-source data. As an example, we use road and river network data, along with population estimates, to construct a realistic model of human movement between health zones in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Using these mobility data, we then fit an epidemic model to real-world surveillance data from the recent Ebola outbreak in the Nord Kivu region of the DRC to illustrate a potential use of the generated mobility estimation. In addition to providing a way for rapid risk estimation, this approach brings together novel techniques to merge diverse GIS datasets that can then be used to address issues that pertain to public health and global health security.

Sex-Specific Elk Resource Selection during the Anthrax Risk Period

Anthrax, caused by the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonosis affecting animals and humans globally. In the United States, anthrax outbreaks occur in wildlife and livestock, with frequent outbreaks in native and exotic wildlife species in Texas, livestock outbreaks in the Dakotas, and sporadic mixed outbreaks in Montana. Understanding where pathogen and host habitat selection overlap is essential for anthrax management. Resource selection and habitat use of ungulates may be sex-specific and lead to differential anthrax exposure risks across the landscape for males and females. We evaluated female elk (Cervus canadensis) resource selection in the same study areas as male elk in a previous anthrax risk study to identify risk of anthrax transmission to females and compare transmission risk between females and males. We developed a generalized linear mixed-effect model to estimate resource selection for female elk in southwest Montana during the June to August anthrax transmission risk period. We then predicted habitat selection of female and male elk across the study area and compared selection with the distribution of anthrax risk to identify spatial distributions of potential anthrax exposure for the male and female elk. Female and male elk selected different resources during the anthrax risk period, which resulted in different anthrax exposure areas for females and males. The sex-specific resource selection and habitat use could infer different areas of risk for anthrax transmission, which can improve anthrax and wildlife management and have important public health and economic implications.

Why Hantavirus Prevalence Does Not Always Increase With Host Density: Modeling the Role of Host Spatial Behavior and Maternal Antibodies

For wildlife diseases, one often relies on host density to predict host infection prevalence and the subsequent force of infection to humans in the case of zoonoses. Indeed, if transmission is mainly indirect, i.e., by way of the environment, the force of infection is expected to increase with host density, yet the laborious field data supporting this theoretical claim are often absent. Hantaviruses are among those zoonoses that have been studied extensively over the past decades, as they pose a significant threat to humans. In Europe, the most widespread hantavirus is the Puumala virus (PUUV), which is carried by the bank vole and causes nephropathia epidemica (NE) in humans. Extensive field campaigns have been carried out in Central Finland to shed light on this supposed relationship between bank vole density and PUUV prevalence and to identify other drivers for the infection dynamics. This resulted in the surprising observation that the relationship between bank vole density and PUUV prevalence is not purely monotonic on an annual basis, contrary to what previous models predicted: a higher vole density does not necessary result in a higher infection prevalence, nor in an increased number of humans reported having NE. Here, we advance a novel individual-based spatially-explicit model which takes into account the immunity provided by maternal antibodies and which simulates the spatial behavior of the host, both possible causes for this discrepancy that were not accounted for in previous models. We show that the reduced prevalence in peak years can be attributed to transient immunity, and that the density-dependent spatial vole behavior, i.e., the fact that home ranges are smaller in high density years, plays only a minor role. The applicability of the model is not limited to the study and prediction of PUUV (and NE) occurrence in Europe, as it could be easily adapted to model other rodent-borne diseases, either with indirect or direct transmission.

Assessing the Impact of Optimal Health Education Programs on the Control of Zoonotic Diseases

To better understand the dynamics of zoonotic diseases, we propose a deterministic mathematical model to study the dynamics of zoonotic brucellosis with a focus on developing countries. The model contains all the relevant biological details, including indirect transmission by the environment. We analyze the essential dynamic behavior of the model and perform an optimal control study to design effective prevention and intervention strategies. The sensitivity analysis of the model parameters is performed. The aim of the controls is tied to reducing the number of infected humans, through health promotional programs within the affected communities. The Pontryagin's Maximum Principle is used to characterize the optimal level of the controls, and the resulting optimality system is solved numerically. Overall, the study demonstrates that through health promotional programs on zoonotic diseases among villagers, it is vital that they should be conducted with high efficacy.

Presence of Segmented Flavivirus Infections in North America

Identifying viruses in synanthropic animals is necessary for understanding the origin of many viruses that can infect humans and developing strategies to prevent new zoonotic infections. The white-footed mouse, Peromyscus leucopus, is one of the most abundant rodent species in the northeastern United States. We characterized the serum virome of 978 free-ranging P. leucopus mice caught in Pennsylvania. We identified many new viruses belonging to 26 different virus families. Among these viruses was a highly divergent segmented flavivirus whose genetic relatives were recently identified in ticks, mosquitoes, and vertebrates, including febrile humans. This novel flavi-like segmented virus was found in rodents and shares ≤70% aa identity with known viruses in the highly conserved region of the viral polymerase. Our data will enable researchers to develop molecular reagents to further characterize this virus and its relatives infecting other hosts and to curtail their spread, if necessary.

Effects of introduced sika deer (Cervus nippon) and population control activity on the distribution of Haemaphysalis ticks in an island environment

The effects of introduced mammal species on the ecology of parasites are often under investigated. The sika deeer, Cervus nippon, is host species of many hard ticks. We collected 8348 ticks on an island where sika deer were introduced. The most representative species was Haemaphysalis megaspinosa (n = 4198; 50.3%), followed by H. longicornis (n = 1945; 23.3%), H. cornigera (n = 1179; 14.1%), H. flava (n = 713; 8.5%), Ixodes turdus (n = 289; 3.7%), I. granulatus (n = 22; 0.3%), and H. hystricis (n = 2; <0.1%) on an island where sika deer were introduced. H. megaspinosa and H. hystricis have not previously been recorded on the Izu islands. The high abundance of H. megaspinosa indicated that the tick species may have been introduced with the sika deer. Furthermore, H. megaspinosa larvae were more abundant at collection sites 21-40 days after sika deer were caught by foot snare traps indicate that engorged female of this tick species were forced to drop off in a very limited area near the foot snare trap. This represented a risk for hunters and people associated with wildlife control visiting the area.

Predicting the Geographic Distribution of the Bacillus anthracis A1.a/Western North American Sub-Lineage for the Continental United States: New Outbreaks, New Genotypes, and New Climate Data

Bacillus anthracis, the causative pathogen of anthrax, is a spore-forming, environmentally maintained bacterium that continues to be a veterinary health problem with outbreaks occurring primarily in wildlife and livestock. Globally, the genetic populations of B. anthracis include multiple lineages, and each may have different ecological requirements and geographical distributions. It is, therefore, essential to identify environmental associations within lineages to predict geographical distributions and risk areas with improved accuracy. Here, we model the ecological niche and predict the geography of the most widespread sublineage of B. anthracis in the continental United States using updated MERRA-derived (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications; the NASA atmospheric data reanalysis of satellite information with multiple data products) bioclimate variables (i.e., MERRAclim data) and updated soil variables. We filter the occurrence data associated with the A1.a/Western North American sub-lineage of B. anthracis from historical anthrax outbreaks using the multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat system. In addition, we also incorporate recent cases associated with B. anthracis A1.a sub-lineage from 2008 to 2012 in Montana, Colorado, and Texas. Our results provide the predicted distribution of the A1.a sub-lineage of B. anthracis for the United States with better predictive accuracy and higher spatial resolution than previous estimates. Our prediction serves as an improved disease risk map to better inform anthrax surveillance and control in the United States, particularly the Dakotas and Montana where this sub-lineage is persistent.

Laboratory strains of Bacillus anthracis lose their ability to rapidly grow and sporulate compared to wildlife outbreak strains

Bacillus anthracis is the causative agent of anthrax in animals and humans. The organism lies in a dormant state in the soil until introduced into an animal via, ingestion, cutaneous inoculation or inhalation. Once in the host, spores germinate into rapidly growing vegetative cells elaborating toxins. When animals die of anthrax, vegetative bacteria sporulate upon nutrient limitation in the carcass or soil while in the presence of air. After release into the soil environment, spores form a localized infectious zone (LIZ) at and around the carcass. Laboratory strains of B. anthracis produce fewer proteins associated with growth and sporulation compared to wild strains isolated from recent zoonotic disease events. We verified wild strains grow more rapidly than lab strains demonstrating a greater responsiveness to nutrient availability. Sporulation was significantly more rapid in these wild strains compared to lab strains, indicating wild strains are able to sporulate faster due to nutrient limitation while laboratory strains have a decrease in the speed at which they utilize nutrients and an increase in time to sporulation. These findings have implications for disease control at the LIZ as well as on the infectious cycle of this dangerous zoonotic pathogen.

Prevalence of Anaplasma phagocytophilum in Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus and Coinfection with Borrelia burgdorferi and Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus in Western Ukraine

Introduction: Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) and Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme disease (LD), are widespread in Western Ukraine. However, relatively little is known about Anaplasma phagocytophilum in this region. This study examined patterns of infection with A. phagocytophilum in two tick vectors compared with the better studied TBEV and B. burgdorferi.

Materials: Ticks were collected in three different ecosystems of the Western Ukraine during 2009–2014. Samples were examined for pathogen detection using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and logistic regression models were developed to assess the significance of different factors.

Results: Among the three selected ecological systems of the Western region of Ukraine, 5130 ticks belonging to Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus were collected between 2009 and 2014. They were grouped into 366 pools and were tested by PCR for A. phagocytophilum. A subsample (1620 ticks, 162 pools) of the ticks was concurrently tested by PCR for A. phagocytophilum, B. burgdorferi, and TBEV. Overall, there was no trend in the proportion of positive ticks across years (p > 0.05). However, the prevalence of A. phagocytophilum was higher (27.4%) in I. ricinus than in D. reticulatus (15.9%) (OR = 2.69; 95% CI, 1.52–4.94 (Lower, Upper 95% CI)). Infection was more common in forested habitats (OR = 1.89; 95% CI, 1.07–3.36) and during the later summer–early autumn (3.78; 95% CI, 1.79–8.06). B. burgdorferi was found in 29.3% and 31.9% of I. ricinus and D. reticulatus, respectively; and TBEV was found in 6.3% and 14.5% of I. ricinus and D. reticulatus. Coinfection of A. phagocytophilum and B. burgdorferi occurred more often than chance and was more frequent than any other combination of pathogens (p = 0.031).

Conclusions: Our study is the first to explore the potential relationship between the ecosystems, vectors, and the presence of Human Granulocytic Anaplasmosis (HGA) and other tick-borne infections in Western Ukraine. Anaplasma demonstrated a greater prevalence in I. ricinus in the forested area in Western Ukraine. Altogether, HGA, LD, and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) pathogens are actively circulating in these ecosystems and have the potential to coinfect vectors that might increase the risk of transmitting multiple pathogens to humans during host feeding by individual ticks.

The global distribution of Bacillus anthracis and associated anthrax risk to humans, livestock and wildlife

Bacillus anthracis is a spore-forming, Gram-positive bacterium responsible for anthrax, an acute infection that most significantly affects grazing livestock and wild ungulates, but also poses a threat to human health. The geographic extent of B. anthracis is poorly understood, despite multi-decade research on anthrax epizootic and epidemic dynamics; many countries have limited or inadequate surveillance systems, even within known endemic regions. Here, we compile a global occurrence dataset of human, livestock and wildlife anthrax outbreaks. With these records, we use boosted regression trees to produce a map of the global distribution of B. anthracis as a proxy for anthrax risk. We estimate that 1.83 billion people (95% credible interval (CI): 0.59-4.16 billion) live within regions of anthrax risk, but most of that population faces little occupational exposure. More informatively, a global total of 63.8 million poor livestock keepers (95% CI: 17.5-168.6 million) and 1.1 billion livestock (95% CI: 0.4-2.3 billion) live within vulnerable regions. Human and livestock vulnerability are both concentrated in rural rainfed systems throughout arid and temperate land across Eurasia, Africa and North America. We conclude by mapping where anthrax risk could disrupt sensitive conservation efforts for wild ungulates that coincide with anthrax-prone landscapes.

Challenges and Opportunities Developing Mathematical Models of Shared Pathogens of Domestic and Wild Animals

Diseases that affect both wild and domestic animals can be particularly difficult to prevent, predict, mitigate, and control. Such multi-host diseases can have devastating economic impacts on domestic animal producers and can present significant challenges to wildlife populations, particularly for populations of conservation concern. Few mathematical models exist that capture the complexities of these multi-host pathogens, yet the development of such models would allow us to estimate and compare the potential effectiveness of management actions for mitigating or suppressing disease in wildlife and/or livestock host populations. We conducted a workshop in March 2014 to identify the challenges associated with developing models of pathogen transmission across the wildlife-livestock interface. The development of mathematical models of pathogen transmission at this interface is hampered by the difficulties associated with describing the host-pathogen systems, including: (1) the identity of wildlife hosts, their distributions, and movement patterns; (2) the pathogen transmission pathways between wildlife and domestic animals; (3) the effects of the disease and concomitant mitigation efforts on wild and domestic animal populations; and (4) barriers to communication between sectors. To promote the development of mathematical models of transmission at this interface, we recommend further integration of modern quantitative techniques and improvement of communication among wildlife biologists, mathematical modelers, veterinary medicine professionals, producers, and other stakeholders concerned with the consequences of pathogen transmission at this important, yet poorly understood, interface.

Infestation of introduced raccoons (Procyon lotor) with indigenous ixodid ticks on the Miura Peninsula, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan

Since the raccoon (Procyon lotor) was introduced to Japan, studies have established that they are infested with native Japanese tick species. However, the quantity of ticks infesting raccoons is unknown. We conducted a survey of ticks on invasive raccoons captured on the Miura Peninsula, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, from April 2015 through June 2016 to determine the species of ticks and to quantify the intensity of tick infestation in order to obtain basal information related to the ecology of host–parasite relationships among indigenous tick species and an alien mammalian species. We collected and identified 15,931 ticks of two genera and six species, namely, Haemaphysalis flava, H. megaspinosa, H. longicornis, H. japonica, Ixodes ovatus, and I. tanuki, from 100 out of 115 raccoons. The dominant tick species was H. flava (96.8%) and individuals were mainly adults. Seasonal patterns of infestation intensity of adults and nymphs peaked in the autumn and winter and decreasing in the late spring and summer, May to August, while larvae peaked in August. Our results indicated that host–parasite relationships between invasive raccoons and Japanese tick species, especially H. flava, were established in Kanagawa Prefecture. The ticks infest invasive raccoons for their blood-meal and also for overwintering. The results of this study extend our understanding of the ecology of tick-borne diseases.

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All developmental stages of Haemaphysalis flava infested feral raccoons.

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Adults H. flava was dominant tick infested raccoons.

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The peak of tick infestation raccoons was in late autumn and winter.

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Adults and nymphal H. flava use raccoons for blood-meal and overwintering.

Ecological multiplex interactions determine the role of species for parasite spread amplification

Despite their potential interplay, multiple routes of many disease transmissions are often investigated separately. As a unifying framework for understanding parasite spread through interdependent transmission paths, we present the 'ecomultiplex' model, where the multiple transmission paths among a diverse community of interacting hosts are represented as a spatially explicit multiplex network. We adopt this framework for designing and testing potential control strategies for Trypanosoma cruzi spread in two empirical host communities. We show that the ecomultiplex model is an efficient and low data-demanding method to identify which species enhances parasite spread and should thus be a target for control strategies. We also find that the interplay between predator-prey and host-parasite interactions leads to a phenomenon of parasite amplification, in which top predators facilitate T. cruzi spread, offering a mechanistic interpretation of previous empirical findings. Our approach can provide novel insights in understanding and controlling parasite spreading in real-world complex systems.

A Framework for Modeling Emerging Diseases to Inform Management

The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate and implement optimal management decisions. Actions to control or mitigate the effects of emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because of uncertainty in the estimates and the predicted outcomes of the control tactics. The development of models that describe the best-known information regarding the disease system at the early stages of disease emergence is an essential step for optimal decision-making. Models can predict the potential effects of the pathogen, provide guidance for assessing the likelihood of success of different proposed management actions, quantify the uncertainty surrounding the choice of the optimal decision, and highlight critical areas for immediate research. We demonstrate how to develop models that can be used as a part of a decision-making framework to determine the likelihood of success of different management actions given current knowledge.

Understanding the cryptic nature of Lassa fever in West Africa

Lassa fever (LF) is increasingly recognized by global health institutions as an important rodent-borne disease with severe impacts on some of West Africa's poorest communities. However, our knowledge of LF ecology, epidemiology and distribution is limited, which presents barriers to both short-term disease forecasting and prediction of long-term impacts of environmental change on Lassa virus (LASV) zoonotic transmission dynamics. Here, we synthesize current knowledge to show that extrapolations from past research have produced an incomplete picture of the incidence and distribution of LF, with negative consequences for policy planning, medical treatment and management interventions. Although the recent increase in LF case reports is likely due to improved surveillance, recent studies suggest that future socio-ecological changes in West Africa may drive increases in LF burden. Future research should focus on the geographical distribution and disease burden of LF, in order to improve its integration into public policy and disease control strategies.

Integrative modelling for One Health: pattern, process and participation

This paper argues for an integrative modelling approach for understanding zoonoses disease dynamics, combining process, pattern and participatory models. Each type of modelling provides important insights, but all are limited. Combining these in a '3P' approach offers the opportunity for a productive conversation between modelling efforts, contributing to a 'One Health' agenda. The aim is not to come up with a composite model, but seek synergies between perspectives, encouraging cross-disciplinary interactions. We illustrate our argument with cases from Africa, and in particular from our work on Ebola virus and Lassa fever virus. Combining process-based compartmental models with macroecological data offers a spatial perspective on potential disease impacts. However, without insights from the ground, the 'black box' of transmission dynamics, so crucial to model assumptions, may not be fully understood. We show how participatory modelling and ethnographic research of Ebola and Lassa fever can reveal social roles, unsafe practices, mobility and movement and temporal changes in livelihoods. Together with longer-term dynamics of change in societies and ecologies, all can be important in explaining disease transmission, and provide important complementary insights to other modelling efforts. An integrative modelling approach therefore can offer help to improve disease control efforts and public health responses.This article is part of the themed issue 'One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being'.

ANIMAL WELFARE FROM MOUSE TO MOOSE--IMPLEMENTING THE PRINCIPLES OF THE 3RS IN WILDLIFE RESEARCH

The concept of the 3Rs (replacement, reduction, and refinement) was originally developed for improving laboratory animal welfare and is well known in biomedical and toxicologic research. The 3Rs have so far gained little attention in wildlife research, and there could be several reasons for this. First, researchers may prioritize the welfare of populations and ecosystems over the welfare of individual animals. The effects of research on individual animals can, however, impact welfare and research quality at group and population levels. Second, researchers may find it difficult to apply the 3Rs to studies of free-living wildlife because of the differences between laboratory and wild animals, species, research environment, and purpose and design of the studies. There are, however, several areas where it is possible to transfer the 3R principles to wildlife research, including replacement with noninvasive research techniques, reduction with optimized experimental design, and refinement with better methods of capture, anesthesia, and handling. Third, researchers may not have been trained in applying the 3Rs in wildlife research. This training is needed since ethics committees, employers, journal publishers, and funding agencies increasingly require researchers to consider the welfare implications of their research. In this paper, we compare the principles of the 3Rs in various research areas to better understand the possibilities and challenges of the 3Rs in wildlife research. We emphasize the importance of applying the 3Rs systematically throughout the research process. Based on experiences from laboratory research, we suggest three key factors to enhance implementation of the 3Rs in wildlife research: 1) organizational structure and management, 2) 3R awareness, and 3) research innovation, validation, and implementation. Finally, we encourage an interdisciplinary approach to incorporate the 3R principles in wildlife research. For improved animal welfare and increased research quality, researchers have moral obligations to include the 3Rs into all research areas, including wildlife research.

The macroecology of infectious diseases: a new perspective on global-scale drivers of pathogen distributions and impacts

Identifying drivers of infectious disease patterns and impacts at the broadest scales of organisation is one of the most crucial challenges for modern science, yet answers to many fundamental questions remain elusive. These include what factors commonly facilitate transmission of pathogens to novel host species, what drives variation in immune investment among host species, and more generally what drives global patterns of parasite diversity and distribution? Here we consider how the perspectives and tools of macroecology, a field that investigates patterns and processes at broad spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales, are expanding scientific understanding of global infectious disease ecology. In particular, emerging approaches are providing new insights about scaling properties across all living taxa, and new strategies for mapping pathogen biodiversity and infection risk. Ultimately, macroecology is establishing a framework to more accurately predict global patterns of infectious disease distribution and emergence.

Redefining the Australian Anthrax Belt: Modeling the Ecological Niche and Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis

The ecology and distribution of B. anthracis in Australia is not well understood, despite the continued occurrence of anthrax outbreaks in the eastern states of the country. Efforts to estimate the spatial extent of the risk of disease have been limited to a qualitative definition of an anthrax belt extending from southeast Queensland through the centre of New South Wales and into northern Victoria. This definition of the anthrax belt does not consider the role of environmental conditions in the distribution of B. anthracis. Here, we used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model system (GARP), historical anthrax outbreaks and environmental data to model the ecological niche of B. anthracis and predict its potential geographic distribution in Australia. Our models reveal the niche of B. anthracis in Australia is characterized by a narrow range of ecological conditions concentrated in two disjunct corridors. The most dominant corridor, used to redefine a new anthrax belt, parallels the Eastern Highlands and runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New South Wales. This study has redefined the anthrax belt in eastern Australia and provides insights about the ecological factors that limit the distribution of B. anthracis at the continental scale for Australia. The geographic distributions identified can help inform anthrax surveillance strategies by public and veterinary health agencies.

This study explores the spatial ecology of Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax disease, in Australia. Globally, anthrax is a neglected zoonotic disease that primarily affect herbivores and incidentally humans and all warm-blooded animals. Here, we used historic anthrax outbreaks for the period 1996–2013 and environmental factors in an ecological niche modelling framework to quantitatively define the ecological niche of B. anthracis using a genetic algorithm. This was projected onto the continental landscape of Australia to predict the geographic distribution of the pathogen. The ecological niche of B. anthracis is characterized by a narrow range of ecological conditions, which are geographically concentrated in two disjunct corridors: a dominant corridor paralleling the Eastern Highlands runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New South Wales, while another corridor was predicted in the southwest of Western Australia. These findings provide an estimate of the potential geographic distribution of B. anthracis, and can help inform anthrax disease surveillance across Australia.

Plasmodium knowlesi transmission: integrating quantitative approaches from epidemiology and ecology to understand malaria as a zoonosis

The public health threat posed by zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi appears to be growing: it is increasingly reported across South East Asia, and is the leading cause of malaria in Malaysian Borneo. Plasmodium knowlesi threatens progress towards malaria elimination as aspects of its transmission, such as spillover from wildlife reservoirs and reliance on outdoor-biting vectors, may limit the effectiveness of conventional methods of malaria control. The development of new quantitative approaches that address the ecological complexity of P. knowlesi, particularly through a focus on its primary reservoir hosts, will be required to control it. Here, we review what is known about P. knowlesi transmission, identify key knowledge gaps in the context of current approaches to transmission modelling, and discuss the integration of these approaches with clinical parasitology and geostatistical analysis. We highlight the need to incorporate the influences of fine-scale spatial variation, rapid changes to the landscape, and reservoir population and transmission dynamics. The proposed integrated approach would address the unique challenges posed by malaria as a zoonosis, aid the identification of transmission hotspots, provide insight into the mechanistic links between incidence and land use change and support the design of appropriate interventions.

Multi-taxa integrated landscape genetics for zoonotic infectious diseases: deciphering variables influencing disease emergence

Zoonotic disease transmission systems involve sets of species interacting with each other and their environment. This complexity impedes development of disease monitoring and control programs that require reliable identification of spatial and biotic variables and mechanisms facilitating disease emergence. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a framework that simultaneously examines all species involved in disease emergence by integrating concepts and methods from population genetics, landscape ecology, and spatial statistics. Multi-taxa integrated landscape genetics (MTILG) can reveal how interspecific interactions and landscape variables influence disease emergence patterns. We test the potential of our MTILG-based framework by modelling the emergence of a disease system across multiple species dispersal, interspecific interaction, and landscape scenarios. Our simulations showed that both interspecific-dependent dispersal patterns and landscape characteristics significantly influenced disease spread. Using our framework, we were able to detect statistically similar inter-population genetic differences and highly correlated spatial genetic patterns that imply species-dependent dispersal. Additionally, species that were assigned coupled-dispersal patterns were affected to the same degree by similar landscape variables. This study underlines the importance of an integrated approach to investigating emergence of disease systems. MTILG is a robust approach for such studies and can identify potential avenues for targeted disease management strategies.

Applying Science: Opportunities to Inform Disease Management Policy with Cooperative Research within a One Health Framework

The ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa and the current saiga antelope die off in Kazakhstan each represent very real and difficult to manage public or veterinary health crises. They also illustrate the importance of stable and funded surveillance and sound policy for intervention or disease control. While these two events highlight extreme cases of infectious disease (Ebola) or (possible) environmental exposure (saiga), diseases such as anthrax, brucellosis, tularemia, and plague are all zoonoses that pose risks and present surveillance challenges at the wildlife-livestock-human interfaces. These four diseases are also considered important actors in the threat of biological terror activities and have a long history as legacy biowarfare pathogens. This paper reviews recent studies done cooperatively between American and institutions within nations of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) focused on spatiotemporal, epidemiological, and ecological patterns of these four zoonoses. We examine recent studies and discuss the possible ways in which techniques, including ecological niche modeling, disease risk modeling, and spatiotemporal cluster analysis, can inform disease surveillance, control efforts, and impact policy. Our focus is to posit ways to apply science to disease management policy and actual management or mitigation practices. Across these examples, we illustrate the value of cooperative studies that bring together modern geospatial and epidemiological analyses to improve our understanding of the distribution of pathogens and diseases in livestock, wildlife, and humans. For example, ecological niche modeling can provide national level maps of pathogen distributions for surveillance planning, while space-time models can identify the timing and location of significant outbreak events for defining active control strategies. We advocate for the need to bring the results and the researchers from cooperative studies into the meeting rooms where policy is negotiated and use these results to inform future disease surveillance and control or eradication campaigns.

Spatio-temporal patterns of an anthrax outbreak in white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginanus, and associated genetic diversity of Bacillus anthracis

BACKGROUND

Anthrax, a soil-borne zoonosis caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is enzootic in areas of North America with frequent outbreaks in west Texas. Despite a long history of study, pathogen transmission during natural outbreaks remains poorly understood. Here we combined case-level spatio-temporal analysis and high resolution genotyping to investigate anthrax transmission dynamics. Carcass locations from a single white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginanus, outbreak were analyzed for spatial clustering using K-function analysis and directionality with trend surface analysis and the direction test.

RESULTS

The directionalities were compared to results of high resolution genotyping. The results of the spatial clustering analyses, combined with deer movement data, suggest anthrax transmission events occur within limited spatial areas, with carcass locations occurring within the activity space of adjacent cases. The directionality of the outbreak paralleled adjacent dry river beds. Isolates from the outbreak were represented by a single genotype based on multiple locus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA); four sub-genotypes were identified using single nucleotide repeat (SNR) analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Areas of high transmission agreed spatially with areas of higher SNR genetic diversity; however, SNRs did not provide clear evidence of linear transmission. Overlap of case home ranges provides spatial and temporal support for localized transmission, which may include the role of necrophagous or hematophagous flies in outbreaks in this region. These results emphasize the need for active surveillance and prompt cleanup of anthrax carcasses to control anthrax both during outbreaks and between seasons.

The necrophagous fly anthrax transmission pathway: empirical and genetic evidence from wildlife epizootics

Early studies confirmed Bacillus anthracis in emesis and feces of flies under laboratory conditions, but there is little empirical field evidence supporting the roles of flies in anthrax transmission. We collected samples during outbreaks of anthrax affecting livestock and native and exotic wildlife on two ranches in West Texas (2009-2010). Sampling included animal carcasses, maggots, adult flies feeding on or within several meters of carcasses, and leaves from surrounding vegetation. Microbiology and PCR were used to detect B. anthracis in the samples. Viable B. anthracis and/or PCR-positive results were obtained from all represented sample types. Genetic analysis of B. anthracis samples using multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) confirmed that each ranch represented a distinct genetic lineage. Within each ranch, we detected the same genotype of B. anthracis from carcasses, maggots, and adult flies. The results of this study provide evidence supporting a transmission cycle in which blowflies contaminate vegetation near carcasses that may then infect additional browsing animals during anthrax outbreaks in the shrubland environment of West Texas.

Bacillus anthracis Diversity and Geographic Potential across Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad: Further Support of a Novel West African Lineage

Zoonoses, diseases affecting both humans and animals, can exert tremendous pressures on human and veterinary health systems, particularly in resource limited countries. Anthrax is one such zoonosis of concern and is a disease requiring greater public health attention in Nigeria. Here we describe the genetic diversity of Bacillus anthracis in Nigeria and compare it to Chad, Cameroon and a broader global dataset based on the multiple locus variable number tandem repeat (MLVA-25) genetic typing system. Nigerian B. anthracis isolates had identical MLVA genotypes and could only be resolved by measuring highly mutable single nucleotide repeats (SNRs). The Nigerian MLVA genotype was identical or highly genetically similar to those in the neighboring countries, confirming the strains belong to this unique West African lineage. Interestingly, sequence data from a Nigerian isolate shares the anthrose deficient genotypes previously described for strains in this region, which may be associated with vaccine evasion. Strains in this study were isolated over six decades, indicating a high level of temporal strain stability regionally. Ecological niche models were used to predict the geographic distribution of the pathogen for all three countries. We describe a west-east habitat corridor through northern Nigeria extending into Chad and Cameroon. Ecological niche models and genetic results show B. anthracis to be ecologically established in Nigeria. These findings expand our understanding of the global B. anthracis population structure and can guide regional anthrax surveillance and control planning.

Anthrax, caused by the soil-borne bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a disease with important public health and national security implications globally. Understanding the global genetic diversity of the pathogen is important for epidemiological and forensic investigations of anthrax events. Toward this, we describe B. anthracis genetic diversity in Nigeria and confirm it belongs to a unique West African genetic group not yet reported beyond neighboring Cameroon and Chad and Mali. This refines the global phylogeny of B. anthracis, allowing the development of more accurate diagnostics. We coupled these efforts with ecological niche modeling to map the geographic distribution of this strain group across the region. Suitable habitat for the pathogen is predicted across central Nigeria from west to east into Cameroon and Chad. Understanding the geography of B. anthracis plays an important role in informing public health by targeting disease control to high risk regions. This is particularly important in resource limited areas where intervention strategies are constrained and zoonotic disease risk is high.

What factors might have led to the emergence of Ebola in West Africa?

An Ebola outbreak of unprecedented scope emerged in West Africa in December 2013 and presently continues unabated in the countries of Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. Ebola is not new to Africa, and outbreaks have been confirmed as far back as 1976. The current West African Ebola outbreak is the largest ever recorded and differs dramatically from prior outbreaks in its duration, number of people affected, and geographic extent. The emergence of this deadly disease in West Africa invites many questions, foremost among these: why now, and why in West Africa? Here, we review the sociological, ecological, and environmental drivers that might have influenced the emergence of Ebola in this region of Africa and its spread throughout the region. Containment of the West African Ebola outbreak is the most pressing, immediate need. A comprehensive assessment of the drivers of Ebola emergence and sustained human-to-human transmission is also needed in order to prepare other countries for importation or emergence of this disease. Such assessment includes identification of country-level protocols and interagency policies for outbreak detection and rapid response, increased understanding of cultural and traditional risk factors within and between nations, delivery of culturally embedded public health education, and regional coordination and collaboration, particularly with governments and health ministries throughout Africa. Public health education is also urgently needed in countries outside of Africa in order to ensure that risk is properly understood and public concerns do not escalate unnecessarily. To prevent future outbreaks, coordinated, multiscale, early warning systems should be developed that make full use of these integrated assessments, partner with local communities in high-risk areas, and provide clearly defined response recommendations specific to the needs of each community.

Challenges posed by tick-borne rickettsiae: eco-epidemiology and public health implications

Rickettsiae are obligately intracellular bacteria that are transmitted to vertebrates by a variety of arthropod vectors, primarily by fleas and ticks. Once transmitted or experimentally inoculated into susceptible mammals, some rickettsiae may cause febrile illness of different morbidity and mortality, and which can manifest with different types of exhanthems in humans. However, most rickettsiae circulate in diverse sylvatic or peridomestic reservoirs without having obvious impacts on their vertebrate hosts or affecting humans. We have analyzed the key features of tick-borne maintenance of rickettsiae, which may provide a deeper basis for understanding those complex invertebrate interactions and strategies that have permitted survival and circulation of divergent rickettsiae in nature. Rickettsiae are found in association with a wide range of hard and soft ticks, which feed on very different species of large and small animals. Maintenance of rickettsiae in these vector systems is driven by both vertical and horizontal transmission strategies, but some species of Rickettsia are also known to cause detrimental effects on their arthropod vectors. Contrary to common belief, the role of vertebrate animal hosts in maintenance of rickettsiae is very incompletely understood. Some clearly play only the essential role of providing a blood meal to the tick while other hosts may supply crucial supplemental functions for effective agent transmission by the vectors. This review summarizes the importance of some recent findings with known and new vectors that afford an improved understanding of the eco-epidemiology of rickettsiae; the public health implications of that information for rickettsial diseases are also described. Special attention is paid to the co-circulation of different species and genotypes of rickettsiae within the same endemic areas and how these observations may influence, correctly or incorrectly, trends, and conclusions drawn from the surveillance of rickettsial diseases in humans.

The Wild Side of Disease Control at the Wildlife-Livestock-Human Interface: A Review

The control of diseases shared with wildlife requires the development of strategies that will reduce pathogen transmission between wildlife and both domestic animals and human beings. This review describes and criticizes the options currently applied and attempts to forecast wildlife disease control in the coming decades. Establishing a proper surveillance and monitoring scheme (disease and population wise) is the absolute priority before even making the decision as to whether or not to intervene. Disease control can be achieved by different means, including: (1) preventive actions, (2) arthropod vector control, (3) host population control through random or selective culling, habitat management or reproductive control, and (4) vaccination. The alternative options of zoning or no-action should also be considered, particularly in view of a cost/benefit assessment. Ideally, tools from several fields should be combined in an integrated control strategy. The success of disease control in wildlife depends on many factors, including disease ecology, natural history, and the characteristics of the pathogen, the availability of suitable diagnostic tools, the characteristics of the domestic and wildlife host(s) and vectors, the geographical spread of the problem, the scale of the control effort and stakeholders’ attitudes.