Assessment of coding-based frailty algorithms for long-term outcome prediction among older people in community settings: a cohort study from the Shizuoka Kokuho Database

Effect of overweight/obesity and metabolic syndrome on frailty in middle-aged and older Japanese adults

Background

The potential for developing frailty exists in middle-aged and older adults. While obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS) increase the risk of frailty in older adults, this relationship remains unclear in middle-aged adults, who are prone to developing lifestyle-related diseases.

Objective

To examine the effect of overweight/obesity and MetS on frailty development in middle-aged and older Japanese adults using real-world data.

Methods

This nationwide cohort study used exhaustive health insurance claims data of 3,958,708 Japanese people from 2015 to 2019 provided by the Japan Health Insurance Association. Participants aged ≥35 and < 70 years who received health checkups in 2015 were included. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the effect of body mass index (BMI) and MetS or MetS components (i.e., diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia) in 2015 on frailty risk assessed using the hospital frailty risk score in 2019. Additionally, a subgroup analysis was performed to examine the interaction effects of MetS components and 4-year weight change (%) on frailty risk among participants who were overweight and obese (BMI ≥25 kg/m2).

Results

In 2019, 7204 (0.2%) and 253,671 (6.4%) participants were at high and intermediate frailty risks, respectively. Obesity and MetS were independently associated with intermediate/high frailty risk (odds ratio (OR) 1.36, p < 0.05; OR 1.23, p < 0.05, respectively) and high frailty risk (OR 1.80, p < 0.05; OR 1.37, p < 0.05, respectively) in all participants. Although all MetS components were frailty risk factors, these effects diminished with age in both sexes. Subgroup analysis of patients with diabetes revealed that 5%-10% weight loss was associated with reduced frailty risk in both sexes.

Conclusions

Obesity, MetS, and MetS components were independent frailty risk factors in middle-aged and older Japanese adults. Weight loss of up to 10% over 4 years prevented frailty in patients with diabetes who were overweight and obese.

Risk factors for glioblastoma in adults in Japan: an exploratory cohort study based on the Shizuoka Kokuho Database, the Shizuoka study

PURPOSE

To elucidate the risk factors associated with the onset of glioblastoma (GBM) utilizing a comprehensive administrative claims database from a major governmental district in Japan.

METHODS

Using the Shizuoka Kokuho Database (SKDB) for the period from April 2012 to September 2021, we conducted a retrospective analysis of 1,465,353 participants, identifying GBM cases using specific Japanese disease codes in conjunction with associated treatments. Risk factors were assessed using both univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Within the cohort, 182 participants (0.012%) received a GBM diagnosis during the study period, resulting in an incidence rate of 2.1 per 100,000 person-years. The multivariable analysis revealed that older age, male sex, and peripheral vascular disease (PVD) significantly influenced the risk of GBM onset. No clear link was found between allergic conditions and GBM risk, in contrast to some previous research.

CONCLUSION

Employing a robust health insurance database, this study revealed significant associations between GBM and factors such as age, male sex, and PVD within the Japanese population. It provides key insights into GBM epidemiology and underscores the potential of health insurance databases for large-scale oncological research.

Longitudinal analysis of long-term outcomes of colorectal cancer after laparotomy and laparoscopic surgery: The Shizuoka study

BACKGROUND

Long-term cancer prognosis after initial surgical procedures is an unlikely endpoint for clinical trials. Medical claim databases may aid in addressing this issue regardless of limited information on disease and patient background. However, the long-term prognosis (especially regarding long-term care needs) following surgical procedures remains unclear. This study aimed to assess whether long-term outcomes, such as the exacerbation of long-term care needs and mortality, differ with surgical methods.

METHODS

Using a longitudinal study with linkage between medical claim and long-term care database, patients with primary colorectal cancer who underwent initial colonoscopies were identified through anonymized data in Japan (Shizuoka Kokuho Database, 2012-2018). Odds ratios (ORs) for long-term outcomes (long-term care needs and all-cause mortality during a 6.5-year follow-up period) were analyzed using logistic regression to compare laparoscopy and endoscopic surgery to laparotomy.

RESULTS

Overall, 3,744 primary colorectal cancer cases (822 laparotomies, 705 laparoscopies, and 2,217 endoscopic surgeries) were included. Compared to the laparotomy group, the crude OR for exacerbation of long-term care needs in the laparoscopic surgery group was 0.376 (95% confidence interval, 0.227, 0.624), while the OR for all-cause mortality was 0.22 (0.329, 0.532).

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to analyze long-term prognosis after surgery for patients with colorectal cancer to combine medical and long-term needs data. As the national health insurance claim database rarely includes information on cancer stage and comorbidities, better prognosis on endoscopic surgery may need careful interpretation. Therefore, laparoscopy has superior outcomes in terms of long-term care needs and mortality compared to those of laparotomy.

Administration of Tranexamic Acid After Burr Hole Craniotomy Reduced Postoperative Recurrence of Chronic Subdural Hematoma in a Japanese Regional Population

BACKGROUND

Although tranexamic acid (TXA) has occasionally been used to prevent postoperative recurrence of chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) after burr hole craniotomy (BC), robust evidence of its efficacy has been lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the efficacy and safety of postoperative oral administration of TXA after BC for CSDH among the elderly.

METHODS

This retrospective, propensity score-matched cohort study was carried out with a large Japanese local population-based longitudinal cohort in the Shizuoka Kokuho Database between April 2012 and September 2020. Patients included were age 60 years or older and had undergone BC for CSDH but were not undergoing dialysis. Covariates were collected from records of the preceding 12 months from the month of first BC, and patients were followed up for 6 months after surgery. The primary outcome was repeat surgery, and the secondary outcome was death or the onset of thrombosis. Data on postoperative TXA administration were collected and compared with controls using propensity score matching.

RESULTS

Of the 8544 patients who underwent BC for CSDH, 6647 were included, with 473 placed in the TXA group and 6174 placed in the control group. After 1:1 matching, repeated BC was found to have been performed in 30 of 465 patients (6.5%) in the TXA group and in 78 of 465 patients (16.8%) in the control group (relative risk, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.26-0.56). No significant difference was observed for death or the onset of thrombosis.

CONCLUSION

Oral administration of TXA reduced the occurrence of repeat surgery after BC for CSDH.

Use of the Shizuoka Hip Fracture Prognostic Score (SHiPS) to Predict Long-Term Mortality in Patients With Hip Fracture in Japan: A Cohort Study Using the Shizuoka Kokuho Database

Hip fractures are common in patients of advanced age and are associated with excess mortality. Rapid and accurate prediction of the prognosis using information that can be easily obtained before surgery would be advantageous to clinical management. We performed a population-based retrospective cohort study using an 8.5-year Japanese claims database (April 2012-September 2020) to develop and validate a predictive model for long-term mortality after hip fracture. The study included 43,529 patients (34,499 [79.3%] women) aged ≥65 years with first-onset hip fracture. During the observation period, 43% of the patients died. Cox regression analysis identified the following prognostic predictors: sex, age, fracture site, nursing care certification, and several comorbidities (any malignancy, renal disease, congestive heart failure, chronic pulmonary disease, liver disease, metastatic solid tumor, and deficiency anemia). We then developed a scoring system called the Shizuoka Hip Fracture Prognostic Score (SHiPS); this system was established by scoring based on each hazard ratio and classifying the degree of mortality risk into four categories based on decision tree analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year mortality based on the SHiPS was 0.718 (95% CI, 0.706-0.729), 0.736 (95% CI, 0.728-0.745), and 0.758 (95% CI, 0.747-0.769), respectively, indicating good predictive performance of the SHiPS for as long as 5 years after fracture onset. Even when the SHiPS was individually applied to patients with or without surgery after fracture, the prediction performance by the AUC was >0.7. These results indicate that the SHiPS can predict long-term mortality using preoperative information regardless of whether surgery is performed after hip fracture.

Risk factors, treatment and survival rates of late-onset acquired haemophilia A: A cohort study from the Shizuoka Kokuho Database

INTRODUCTION

Acquired haemophilia A (AHA) is a rare disease. The risk factors have yet to be studied.

AIM

We aimed to identify risk factors for late-onset AHA in Japan.

METHODS

A population-based cohort study was conducted using data from the Shizuoka Kokuho Database. The study population was defined as individuals aged ≥60 years. Cause-specific Cox regression analysis was performed to calculate hazard ratios.

RESULTS

Of 1,160,934 registrants, there were 34 patients with newly diagnosed AHA. The mean follow-up period was 5.6 years, and the incidence of AHA was 5.21 per million person-years. Myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus, solid tumors, antimicrobial agents, phenytoin and anti-dementia drugs, which showed significant differences in the univariate analysis, were excluded from the multivariable analysis because of the small number of cases. Multivariable regression analysis showed that the presence of Alzheimer's disease (hazard ratio [HR]:4.28, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.67-10.97) and rheumatic disease (HR:4.65, 95% CI:1.79-12.12) increased the risk of AHA development.

CONCLUSION

We found that comorbid Alzheimer's disease is a risk factor of AHA incidence in the general population. Our findings provide insight into the etiology of AHA, and the proof of the coexistence of Alzheimer's disease may support the recent notion that Alzheimer disease is an autoimmune disease.

Early physical rehabilitation effectiveness in frail older patients hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia: analysis of a nationwide database in Japan

BACKGROUND

Frailty is a significant predictor of prognosis in older patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). No effective therapy has been reported in frail patients with CAP, with frailty determined using the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS).

AIMS

To investigate whether early physical rehabilitation intervention would effectively minimize adverse outcomes in frail older patients (determined using the HFRS) hospitalized for CAP.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort analysis involved patients with CAP aged ≥ 65 years enrolled in the Japanese Diagnostic Procedure Combination Database between 2014 and 2020 and assessed as being frail. We compared 30-day mortality and readmission rates for patients who did and who did not receive physical rehabilitation within three days of admission and evaluated the association between outcomes and receiving early physical rehabilitation using Cox regression models and inverse probability weighting (IPW) for sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

The analysis involved 31,133 frail older patients hospitalized for CAP (mean age 84.3 ± 6.3 years; females, 49.1%), including 11,515 (37.0%) who received early physical rehabilitation. Cox regression analysis showed that early physical rehabilitation intervention was inversely associated with 30-day mortality and readmission rates. The IPW model also showed similar results.

DISCUSSION

Early physical rehabilitation was associated with reduced risks of 30-day mortality, overall in-hospital mortality, and 30-day readmission rates in frail older patients with CAP.

CONCLUSIONS

Early physical rehabilitation in frail older patients hospitalized for CAP may improve outcomes. This finding highlights the importance of simultaneously introducing the HFRS and early physical rehabilitation intervention into clinical practice for frail older patients with CAP.

Association between Frailty Assessed Using Two Electronic Medical Record-Based Frailty Assessment Tools and Long-Term Adverse Prognosis in Older Critically Ill Survivors

OBJECTIVES

Frailty has become an independent risk factor for adverse outcomes in critically ill patients. This study aimed to explore the predictive ability of two electronic medical record-based frailty assessment tools, the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) and Frailty Index based on physiological and laboratory tests (FI-lab), for long-term adverse prognosis in older critically ill survivors.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

9,082 critically ill survivors aged ≥ 65 years.

MEASUREMENTS

The HFRS and the 33-item FI-lab were constructed based on the published literature. Cox and logistic regression models assessed the association between frailty and 1-year mortality and post-discharge care needs.

RESULTS

2,586 patients died within 1 year of follow-up. In fully adjusted models, frailty assessed using both the HFRS (per point, hazard ratio [HR] 1.06, 95% confidential interval [CI] 1.05-1.06; intermediate frailty risk, HR 2.00, 95% CI 1.78-2.25; high frailty risk, HR 3.06, 95% CI 2.68-3.50) and FI-lab (per 0.01 points, HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.03-1.03; intermediate frailty risk, HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.44-1.76; high frailty risk, HR 2.30, 95% CI 2.06-2.57) was associated with mortality. Addition of frailty indicators improved the predictive validity of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score for mortality (HFRS alone ∆ C-index 0.034; FI-lab alone ∆ C-index 0.016; HFRS and FI-lab combined ∆ C-index 0.042). The HFRS but not the FI-lab was associated with higher probability of post-discharge care needs.

CONCLUSION

Both the HFRS and FI-lab could independently predict 1-year mortality in older critically ill survivors. Adding the HFRS to the SOFA score model improved it more than adding the FI-lab. The greatest improvement was achieved when both frailty indicators were used together. These findings suggest that electronic medical record-based frailty assessment methods can be useful tools for predicting long-term outcomes in older critically ill patients.

Risk factors and drugs that trigger the onset of Stevens-Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis: A population-based cohort study using the Shizuoka Kokuho database

Background

Evidence of factors associated with Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) and toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) from population-based studies is scarce.

Objective

We aimed to identify the incidence, risk factors, and drugs that trigger the development of SJS/TEN in the general population.

Methods

A regional, population-based, longitudinal cohort with 2,398,393 Japanese individuals was analyzed using the Shizuoka Kokuho Database from 2012 to 2020.

Results

Among 1,909,570 individuals, 223 (0.01%, 2.3 cases/100,000 person-years) patients were diagnosed with SJS/TEN during the observational period of a maximum of 7.5 years. In a multivariable analysis, the risks of SJS/TEN were an older age, and the presence of type 2 diabetes, peripheral vascular disease, and systemic autoimmune diseases. The administration of drugs, such as immune checkpoint inhibitors, insulin, and type 2 diabetes agents, triggered the onset of SJS/TEN.

Limitations

The results may apply only to the Japanese population.

Conclusion

In this cohort population from a database representing the general population, the risks of developing SJS/TEN were old age and a history of type 2 diabetes, peripheral vascular disease, and systemic autoimmune disease. Furthermore, in addition to previously reported drugs, the administration of immune checkpoint inhibitors, insulin, and type 2 diabetes agents, may trigger the development of SJS/TEN.

Long-term prognosis and clinical course of choking-induced cardiac arrest in patients without the return of spontaneous circulation at hospital arrival: a population-based community study from the Shizuoka Kokuho Database

Background

The risk of choking increases with aging, and the number of cases of choking-induced cardiac arrest is increasing. However, few studies have examined the prognosis of choking-induced cardiac arrest. The aim of this study was to reveal the rates of survival and dependence on devices in the long term after choking-induced cardiac arrest.

Methods

We analyzed data from the Shizuoka Kokuho Database, which consists of claims data of approximately 2.2 million people, from April 2012 to September 2018. We selected patients with choking-induced cardiac arrest who received cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the hospital. Patients were excluded if they were less than 20 years old, had an upper airway tumor, received ventilation assistance, or received enteral nutrition in the month prior to cardiac arrest. The primary outcome was death, and the secondary outcomes were the rates of survival at 3-months and independence on devices. Descriptive statistics are presented and compared among age groups (20–64 years, 65–74 years, 75–84 years, 85 years and older), and survival time analysis (Kaplan-Meier method) was performed.

Results

In total, 268 patients were analyzed, including 26 patients in the 20–64 age group, 33 patients in the 65–74 age group, 70 patients in the 75–84 age group, and 139 patients in the ≥85 age group. The overall 3-month survival rate was 5.6% (15/268). The 3-month survival rates were 3.8% (1/26) in the 20–64 age group, 15.2% (5/33) in the 65–74 age group, 8.6% (6/70) in the 75–84 age group, and 2.2% (3/139) in the ≥85 age group. The overall 12-month survival rate was 2.6% (7/268). Of the 7 patients who survived for 12 months, 3 received ventilation management and 5 received tube or intravenous feedings at 3 months. These survivors were still receiving ventilation assistance and tube feedings in the hospital and had not been discharged at 12 months.

Conclusions

The prognosis of choking-induced cardiac arrest was extremely poor when patients were not resuscitated before hospital arrival. Those who survived were mostly dependent on assistive devices. Additionally, none of the survivors dependent on assistive devices had discontinued the use of the devices at the long-term follow-up.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12873-022-00676-8.