Smallest worthwhile effect of exercise programs to prevent falls among older people: estimates from benefit-harm trade-off and discrete choice methods

Six-month pain and function outcome expectations were established for total knee arthroplasty using the smallest worthwhile effect

INTRODUCTION

Interpretations of patient-reported outcome measures following knee arthroplasty lack context and typically do not account for costs, risks and benefits compared to an alternative treatment. The primary purpose of our paper is to estimate expectations patients have for pain and function destination outcome, six-months following surgery relative to the outcome expected if knee arthroplasty was not done. Secondary purposes were to determine if statistically significant changes in the smallest worthwhile six-month outcome occurred following an interactive discussion and to assess the construct validity of the expected six-month outcome obtained at baseline.

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of a prospective longitudinal cohort study of 121 patients undergoing knee arthroplasty. Smallest worthwhile effect estimates were determined and expected six-month KOOS Pain and Function, daily activity measures were established during a pre-operative visit.

RESULTS

The average six-month expected (the destination of interest) KOOS Pain score was 75 (IQR = 64 to 86) and the average KOOS Function, daily activity score was 74 (IQR = 59 to 86). The smallest worthwhile effect discussion led to significant changes in expected destination scores. For example, KOOS Pain expected outcome changed from 87.7 (9.8) to 75.0 (13.6), a statistically significant reduction in expected outcome (t(119) = 16.942, p < 0.001.

CONCLUSION

Six-month expected KOOS outcomes following knee arthroplasty were established and approximate the average six-month outcomes reported in the literature. Validity of these estimates was established. These data can be used to aid shared decision-making discussions regarding patient expectations of knee arthroplasty outcomes during a patient encounter.

The smallest worthwhile effect on pain intensity of exercise therapy for people with chronic low back pain: a discrete choice experiment study

OBJECTIVE: To identify the smallest worthwhile effect (SWE) of exercise therapy for people with non-specific chronic low back pain (CLBP). DESIGN: Discrete choice experiment. METHODS: The SWE was estimated as the lowest reduction in pain that participants would consider exercising worthwhile, compared to not exercising i.e., effects due to natural history and other components (e.g., regression to the mean). We recruited English-speaking adults in Australia with non-specific CLBP to our online survey via email obtained from a registry of previous participants and advertisements on social media. We used discrete choice experiment to estimate the SWE of exercise compared to no exercise for pain intensity. We analysed the discrete choice experiment using a mixed logit model, and mitigated hypothetical bias through certainty calibration, with sensitivity analyses performed with different certainty calibration thresholds. RESULTS: Two-hundred and thirteen participants completed the survey. The mean age (±SD) was 50.7±16.5, median (IQR) pain duration 10 years (5-20), and mean pain intensity (±SD) was 5.8±2.3 on a 0-10 numerical rating scale. For people with CLBP the SWE of exercise was a between-group reduction in pain of 20%, compared to no exercise. In the sensitivity analyses, the SWE varied with different levels of certainty calibration; from 0% without certainty calibration to 60% with more extreme certainty calibration. CONCLUSION: This patient-informed threshold of clinical importance could guide the interpretation of findings from randomised trials and meta-analyses of exercise therapy compared to no exercise.

Using the benefit-harm trade-off method to determine the smallest worthwhile effect of intensive motor training on strength for people with spinal cord injury

STUDY DESIGN

Interviews using the benefit-harm trade-off method and an online survey.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the smallest worthwhile effect (SWE) of motor training on strength for people with spinal cord injury (SCI).

SETTING

SCI units, Australia.

METHODS

Forty people with recent SCI who had participated in motor training as part of their rehabilitation program (patient participants) and 37 physiotherapists (physiotherapist participants) working in SCI were recruited. The patient participants underwent an iterative process using the benefit-harm trade-off method to determine the SWE of motor training on strength. The physiotherapist participants were given an online survey to determine the SWE for five different scenarios. Both groups considered the SWE of a physiotherapy intervention involving an additional 12 h of motor training for 10 weeks on top of usual care. They were required to estimate the smallest improvement in strength (points on the Total Motor Score of the International Standards for Neurological Classification of SCI) to justify the effort and associated costs, risks or inconveniences of the motor training.

RESULTS

The median (interquartile range) smallest improvement in strength that patient and physiotherapist participants deemed worth the effort and associated costs, risks or inconveniences of the motor training was 3 (1-5) points, and 9 (7-13) points, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

People with recent SCI are willing to devote 12 h a week for 10 weeks to motor training in addition to their usual care to gain small changes in strength. Physiotherapists wanted to see greater improvements to justify the intervention.

Estimating the smallest worthwhile difference of antidepressants: a cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND

Approximately 30% of patients experience substantial improvement in depression after 2 months without treatment, and 45% with antidepressants. The smallest worthwhile difference (SWD) refers to an intervention's smallest beneficial effect over a comparison patients deem worthwhile given treatment burdens (harms, expenses and inconveniences), but is undetermined for antidepressants.

OBJECTIVE

Estimating the SWD of commonly prescribed antidepressants for depression compared to no treatment.

METHODS

The SWD was estimated as a patient-required difference in response rates between antidepressants and no treatment after 2 months. An online cross-sectional survey using Prolific, MQ Mental Health and Amazon Mechanical Turk crowdsourcing services in the UK and USA between October 2022 and January 2023 garnered participants (N=935) that were a mean age of 44.1 (SD=13.9) and 66% women (n=617).

FINDINGS

Of 935 participants, 124 reported moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms but were not in treatment, 390 were in treatment and 495 reported absent-to-mild symptoms with or without treatment experiences. The median SWD was a 20% (IQR=10-30%) difference in response rates for people with moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms, not in treatment, and willing to consider antidepressants, and 25% (IQR=10-35%) for the full sample.

CONCLUSIONS

Our observed SWDs mean that the current 15% antidepressant benefit over no treatment was sufficient for one in three people to accept antidepressants given the burdens, but two in three expected greater treatment benefits.

IMPLICATIONS

While a minority may be satisfied with the best currently available antidepressants, more effective and/or less burdensome medications are needed, with more attention given to patient perspectives.

Effectiveness of Exercise Interventions for Preventing Neck Pain: A Systematic Review With Meta-analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

OBJECTIVE: To update the evidence on the effectiveness of exercise interventions to prevent episodes of neck pain. DESIGN: Systematic review with meta-analysis. LITERATURE SEARCH: MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL, CINAHL, SPORTDiscus, PEDro, and trial registries from inception to December 2, 2022. Forward and backward citation searches. STUDY SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that enrolled adults without neck pain at baseline and compared exercise interventions to no intervention, placebo/sham, attention control, or minimal intervention. Military populations and astronauts were excluded. DATA SYNTHESIS: Random-effects meta-analysis. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane RoB 2 tool. The certainty of evidence was judged according to the GRADE approach. RESULTS: Of 4703 records screened, 5 trials (1722 participants at baseline) were included and eligible for meta-analysis. Most (80%) participants were office workers. Risk of bias was rated as some concerns for 2 trials and high for 3 trials. There was moderate-certainty evidence that exercise interventions probably reduce the risk of a new episode of neck pain (OR, 0.49; 95% confidence interval: 0.31, 0.76) compared to no or minimal intervention in the short-term (≤12 months). The results were not robust to sensitivity analyses for missing outcome data. CONCLUSION: There was moderate-certainty evidence supporting exercise interventions for reducing the risk for an episode of neck pain in the next 12 months. The clinical significance of the effect is unclear. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2023;53(10):1-16. Epub: 8 September 2023. doi:10.2519/jospt.2023.12063.

The smallest worthwhile effect on pain intensity of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and exercise therapy for acute and chronic low back pain: a benefit-harm trade-off study

QUESTION

What are the smallest worthwhile effects of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) for people with acute and chronic low back pain (LBP)? What is the smallest worthwhile effect of individualised exercise for people with chronic LBP compared with no intervention?

DESIGN

Benefit-harm trade-off study.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were recruited by advertisement on social media and included if they were English-speaking adults in Australia who had non-specific LBP.

OUTCOME MEASURE

Pain intensity.

RESULTS

A total of 116 people with acute LBP and 230 people with chronic LBP were recruited. For acute LBP, the smallest worthwhile effect of NSAIDs additional to no intervention was a 30% (IQR 10 to 40%) reduction in pain intensity. For chronic LBP, the smallest worthwhile effect of NSAIDs additional to no intervention was a 27.5% (IQR 10 to 50%) reduction in pain intensity. For chronic LBP, the smallest worthwhile effect of exercise additional to no intervention was a 20% (IQR 10 to 40%) reduction in pain intensity. There were small associations between baseline pain, duration of pain and level of exercise and the smallest worthwhile effect of NSAIDs for acute LBP. There were no other clear associations.

CONCLUSIONS

For people with LBP, the smallest worthwhile effect of exercise and NSAIDs additional to no intervention is approximately a 20 to 30% reduction in pain. These results can inform the interpretation of the effects of NSAIDs and exercise in randomised trials and meta-analyses, incorporating consumers' perspectives. Further research on comparisons between different interventions and on other core LBP outcomes may inform decision-making.

REGISTRATION

OSF osf.io/3erjx/.

The difference between statistical significance and clinical relevance. The case of minimal important change, non-inferiority trials, and smallest worthwhile effect

Clinical relevance and statistical significance are different concepts, linked via the sample size calculation. Threshold values for detecting a minimal important change over time are frequently (mis)interpreted as a threshold for the clinical relevance of a difference between groups. The magnitude of a difference between groups that is considered clinically relevant directly impacts the sample size calculation, and thereby the statistical significance in clinical study outcomes. Especially in non-inferiority trials the threshold for clinical relevance, i.e. the predefined margin for non-inferiority, is a crucial choice. A truly inferior treatment will be accepted as non-inferior when this margin is chosen too large. The magnitude of a clinically relevant difference between groups should be carefully considered, by determining the smallest effect for each specific study that is considered worthwhile. This means taking into account the (dis)advantages of both study interventions in terms of benefits, harms, costs, and potential side effects. This article clarifies common sources of confusion, illustrates the implications for clinical research with an example and provides specific suggestions to improve the design and interpretation of clinical research.

Injury-Reduction Programs Containing Neuromuscular Neck Exercises and the Incidence of Soccer-Related Head and Neck Injuries

CONTEXT

Concern is growing among soccer players, coaches, and parents regarding head and neck injuries, including concussion, particularly from heading a ball. Thus, we need to explore soccer-specific head injury risk-reduction initiatives. One such initiative is to condition the neck musculature of young players by adding neuromuscular neck exercises to existing injury-reduction exercise programs.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effect of neuromuscular neck exercises completed as part of an injury risk-reduction exercise program on the incidence of soccer-related head and neck injuries in adolescent soccer players.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Two sports high schools and 6 soccer clubs during the 2021 soccer season.

PATIENTS OR OTHER PARTICIPANTS

A total of 364 male and female soccer players, aged 12 to 18 years.

INTERVENTION(S)

Members of 1 sports high school and 2 soccer clubs performed neuromuscular neck exercises as part of an injury-reduction program during training (neck training group). Members of another sports high school and 4 soccer clubs performed an injury-reduction program but without neck exercises (comparison group).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Self-reported injury data were collected from each player at the end of the season and used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% CIs.

RESULTS

In total, 364 players completed the study, including 146 players in the neck training group and 218 players in the comparison group. Despite players in the neck training group being less likely to self-report a concussion (IRR = 0.23; 95% CI = 0.03, 1.04) and pain on heading a ball (IRR = 0.62; 95% CI = 0.34, 1.07), only a lower incidence of possible concussive events (IRR = 0.38; 95% CI = 0.14, 0.90; P < .05) was significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Integrating neuromuscular neck exercises into injury-reduction exercise programs has the potential to reduce the risk of adolescent soccer players sustaining a possible concussive event, concussion, or pain on heading a ball.

Fear of Falls Following an Online Exercise Program for Aging Adults

Individuals who participate in regular exercise tend to report a lower fear of falling; however, it is unknown if this fear can be reduced following an online fall prevention exercise program. The main purpose of this study was to test if offering a peer-led fall prevention exercise program online reduced the fear of falling and if this potential improvement was greater than when the program was offered in person. The secondary objectives were to describe participants' characteristics when participating online, the rate of falls and the context in which falls occur. A total of 85 adults aged 69.0 ± 7.8 years participated in the program offered online (n = 44) and in-person (n = 41). No significant differences in fear of falling before and after participation in the program were reported for either group: online (20.7 ± 5.1-21.8 ± 5.5) and in-person (20.6 ± 5.1-21.2 ± 5.3). Online participants reported a greater proportion of falls (n = 9; 20.5% vs. n = 4; 9.8%; p = .14), mostly occurring outdoors (n = 7) (77.8). A properly designed study is needed to test if the rate of falls is greater when an exercise program is offered online.

The minimal important change for measures of balance and postural control in older adults: a systematic review

The minimal important change and analogous terms (MIC) can provide a measure of change in health outcome variables that is associated with a level of importance for participant/patient. This review explores the availability of the MIC for different balance measures used with older adults in research and clinical settings. PubMed, ProQuest and Web of Science search engines were used and based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 11 studies were deemed suitable for data extraction and analysis. The results demonstrated that MIC is available for the following balance-associated tests: Berg Balance Scale, Timed Up and Go, Short Physical Performance Battery, BESTest and the Tinetti test. A range of MIC values were shown, reflective of different older adult health conditions, calculation methods and anchors used. It was also evident that the responsiveness of the test was not always available or appropriately determined, questioning the validity of the MIC value published. Greater research is needed to establish MIC for balance measurements for use with older adults with different health conditions, preferably using objective measures such as falls. The calculation of such statistics will improve the evaluation of intervention effectiveness.

The smallest worthwhile effect is superior to the MCID for estimating acceptable benefits of knee arthroplasty

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Traditionally, the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) is used to judge the meaningfulness of outcomes in total knee arthroplasty (TKA). However, MCID estimates do not consider patient costs, potential side effects, and inconveniences. MCIDs vary substantially across TKA studies and have several conceptual and psychometric problems. A more scientifically sound alternative for estimating benefits patients expect TKA is the smallest worthwhile effect (SWE), measured with the benefit-harm trade-off method.

METHODS

We recruited 121 participants and followed them for 6 months after surgery. All participants completed Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Score (KOOS) Pain and Function, and underwent an interview using the benefit-harm trade-off method.

RESULTS

The absolute SWE at the 50th percentile (approximating the average patient) was 31 points KOOS Pain improvement and 28 points for KOOS Function, daily living. Construct validity was supported with strong associations between meeting SWE (yes or no) and satisfaction with 6-month outcome (yes or no) using Pearson Chi Square (24.5, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Current MCID-based methods for interpreting KOOS change scores have flaws while the SWE method is conceptually superior. We determined the SWE of TKA that would justify the costs, risks, and inconveniences of surgery. SWE estimates suggest that patients expect a substantially greater change in KOOS scores than would be expected using MCID estimates. Clinicians can use SWE estimates when discussing likely outcomes and potential TKA benefits and risks with their patients.

The Application of Preference Elicitation Methods in Clinical Trial Design to Quantify Trade-Offs: A Scoping Review

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Patients can express preferences for different treatment options in a healthcare context, and these can be measured with quantitative preference elicitation methods.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to conduct a scoping review to determine how preference elicitation methods have been used in the design of clinical trials.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review to identify primary research studies, involving any health condition, that used quantitative preference elicitation methods, including direct utility-based approaches, and stated preference studies, to value health trade-offs in the context of clinical trial design. Studies were identified by screening existing systematic and scoping reviews and with a primary literature search in MEDLINE from 2010 to the present. We extracted study characteristics and the application of preference elicitation methods to clinical trial design according to the SPIRIT checklist from primary studies and summarized the findings descriptively.

RESULTS

We identified 18 eligible studies. The included studies applied patient preferences to five areas of clinical trial design: intervention selection (n = 1), designing N-of-1 trials (n = 1), outcome selection and weighting composite and ordinal outcomes (n = 12), sample size calculations (n = 2), and recruitment (n = 2). Using preference elicitation methods led to different decisions being made, such as using preference-weighted composite outcomes instead of equally weighted composite outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Preference elicitation methods are infrequently used to design clinical trials but may lead to changes throughout the trial that could affect the evidence generated. Future work should consider measurement challenges and explore stakeholder perceptions.

Implementation of the StandingTall programme to prevent falls in older people: a process evaluation protocol

INTRODUCTION

One in three people aged 65 years and over fall each year. The health, economic and personal impact of falls will grow substantially in the coming years due to population ageing. Developing and implementing cost-effective strategies to prevent falls and mobility problems among older people is therefore an urgent public health challenge. StandingTall is a low-cost, unsupervised, home-based balance exercise programme delivered through a computer or tablet. StandingTall has a simple user-interface that incorporates physical and behavioural elements designed to promote compliance. A large randomised controlled trial in 503 community-dwelling older people has shown that StandingTall is safe, has high adherence rates and is effective in improving balance and reducing falls. The current project targets a major need for older people and will address the final steps needed to scale this innovative technology for widespread use by older people across Australia and internationally.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This project will endeavour to recruit 300 participants across three sites in Australia and 100 participants in the UK. The aim of the study is to evaluate the implementation of StandingTall into the community and health service settings in Australia and the UK. The nested process evaluation will use both quantitative and qualitative methods to explore uptake and acceptability of the StandingTall programme and associated resources. The primary outcome is participant adherence to the StandingTall programme over 6 months.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval has been obtained from the South East Sydney Local Health District Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC reference 18/288) in Australia and the North West- Greater Manchester South Research Ethics Committee (IRAS ID: 268954) in the UK. Dissemination will be via publications, conferences, newsletter articles, social media, talks to clinicians and consumers and meetings with health departments/managers.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12619001329156.

Injury Reduction Programs for Reducing the Incidence of Sport-Related Head and Neck Injuries Including Concussion: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Sport-related head and neck injuries, including concussion, are a growing global public health concern with a need to explore injury risk reduction strategies such as neck exercises.

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review the literature to investigate: (1) the relationship between neck strength and sport-related head and neck injuries (including sport-related concussion (SRC); and (2) whether neck exercise programs can reduce the incidence of (a) sport-related head and neck injuries; and (b) SRC.

METHODS

Five databases (Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, SPORTDiscus, and Web of Science) and research lists of included studies were searched using a combination of medical subject headings and keywords to locate original studies which reported the association between incidence of head and/or neck injury and neck strength data, or included a neck exercise intervention either in isolation or as part of a more comprehensive exercise program.

RESULTS

From an initial search of 593 studies, six were included in this review. A narrative synthesis was performed due to the heterogeneity of the included studies. The results of two observational studies reported that higher neck strength, but not deep neck flexor endurance, is associated with a lower risk of sustaining a SRC. Four intervention studies demonstrated that injury reduction programs that included neck exercises can reduce the incidence of sport-related head and neck injuries including SRC.

CONCLUSION

Consideration should be given towards incorporating neck exercises into injury reduction exercise programs to reduce the incidence of sport-related head and neck injuries, including SRC.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO (registration number: 194217).

Protocol of a 12-month multifactorial eHealth programme targeting balance, dual-tasking and mood to prevent falls in older people: the StandingTall+ randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Falls have a multifactorial aetiology, which may limit the effectiveness of the common approach of exercise as the sole intervention strategy. Multifactorial interventions could be more effective in people at high risk of falling; however, the focus of such interventions has traditionally been quite narrow. This paper describes the design of a randomised controlled trial that will evaluate the effectiveness of an eHealth programme, which addresses cumulative effects of key fall-risk factors across the triad of physical, affective and cognitive functions on falls in older people.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

518 older people aged 65 years and over with high fall risk, defined as having a history of falls in the past 6 months, self-reported fear of falling or being aged 80 years or over, will be recruited via local advertisements, newsletters and presentations, and randomised to an intervention or health education control group. The intervention comprises balance exercise, cognitive-motor exercise and cognitive-behavioural therapy, with their dosage based on participant's baseline balance, executive function and mood. The primary outcome is the rate of falls in the 12 months after randomisation. Secondary outcomes at 6 and 12 months comprise programme adherence, healthcare use, physical activity, balance and mobility, cognitive function, psychological well-being, quality of life, health literacy and user experience and attitudes towards the programme. Data will be analysed following intention to treat to gauge real-world effectiveness. We will further determine complier averaged causal effects to correct for varying adherence and conduct economic analyses to gain insight into cost-effectiveness and cost-utility.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval was obtained from the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Human Research Ethics Committee in December 2017. Outcomes will be disseminated via peer-reviewed articles, conference presentations, community events and media releases.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12619000540112.

Discrete Choice Experiments in Health Economics: Past, Present and Future

OBJECTIVES

Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are increasingly advocated as a way to quantify preferences for health. However, increasing support does not necessarily result in increasing quality. Although specific reviews have been conducted in certain contexts, there exists no recent description of the general state of the science of health-related DCEs. The aim of this paper was to update prior reviews (1990-2012), to identify all health-related DCEs and to provide a description of trends, current practice and future challenges.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted to identify health-related empirical DCEs published between 2013 and 2017. The search strategy and data extraction replicated prior reviews to allow the reporting of trends, although additional extraction fields were incorporated.

RESULTS

Of the 7877 abstracts generated, 301 studies met the inclusion criteria and underwent data extraction. In general, the total number of DCEs per year continued to increase, with broader areas of application and increased geographic scope. Studies reported using more sophisticated designs (e.g. D-efficient) with associated software (e.g. Ngene). The trend towards using more sophisticated econometric models also continued. However, many studies presented sophisticated methods with insufficient detail. Qualitative research methods continued to be a popular approach for identifying attributes and levels.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of empirical DCEs in health economics continues to grow. However, inadequate reporting of methodological details inhibits quality assessment. This may reduce decision-makers' confidence in results and their ability to act on the findings. How and when to integrate health-related DCE outcomes into decision-making remains an important area for future research.