Statistical models in nutritional epidemiology: more focus on the interpretation and argumentation for variable selection

Substitution analyses of foods with varying fat quality and the associations with all-cause mortality and impact of the FADS-1 genotype in elderly men

PURPOSE

To investigate associations between substitutions of foods varying in fat quality and all-cause mortality in elderly Swedish men and to examine effect measure modification by a gene involved in fatty acid desaturation (rs174550 FADS1).

METHODS

Using Cox-regression models in the ULSAM cohort (n = 1133 men aged 71), we aimed to investigate; (1) Associations between the substitution of a nutrient or food for another on all-cause mortality (primary outcome) and CVD (secondary outcome) and (2) Associations between the addition of various fat-rich foods to the habitual diet and all-cause mortality and CVD. Subgroup analyses based on the rs174550 FADS1 genotype were conducted.

RESULTS

Over a mean follow-up of 11.6-13.7 years, n = 774 died and n = 494 developed CVD, respectively. No clear associations were observed for the vast majority of substitution nor addition models. Adding saturated fatty acids (SFA) on top of the habitual diet was however associated with an increased risk of mortality in men with the CT/CC-genotype [HR (95% CI) 1.44 (1.05, 1.97)]. Post-hoc analyses showed an inverse association of substituting SFA with carbohydrates [HR (95% CI) 0.79 (0.65, 0.97)], which was somewhat stronger in men with the CT/CC-genotype compared to men carrying the TT-genotype.

CONCLUSIONS

Few associations were observed between diet and all-cause mortality and CVD in this population. However, substituting SFA with carbohydrates was associated with lower mortality in post-hoc analyses and adding SFA to the habitual diet increased mortality in men with the CT/CC-genotype. The latter observation is novel and warrants further investigation in larger cohort studies including women.

Diet composition, nutrient substitutions and circulating fatty acids in relation to ectopic and visceral fat depots

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Short-term randomized trials have demonstrated that replacing saturated fat (SFA) with polyunsaturated fat (PUFA) causes a reduction or prevention of liver fat accumulation, but population-based studies on diet and body fat distribution are limited. We investigated cross-sectional associations between diet, circulating fatty acids and liver fat, visceral adipose tissue (VAT), intermuscular adipose tissue (IMAT) and other fat depots using different energy-adjustment models.

METHODS

Sex-stratified analyses of n = 9119 (for serum fatty acids) to 13 849 (for nutrients) participants in UK Biobank were conducted. Fat depots were assessed by MRI, circulating fatty acids by NMR spectroscopy and diet by repeated 24-h recalls. Liver fat, VAT and IMAT were primary outcomes; total adipose tissue (TAT) and abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue (ASAT) were secondary outcomes. Three a priori defined models were constructed: the all-components model, standard model and leave-one-out model (main model including specified nutrient substitutions). Imiomics (MRI-derived) was used to confirm and visualize associations.

RESULTS

In women, substituting carbohydrates and free sugars with saturated fat (SFA) was positively associated with liver fat (β (95% CI) = 0.19 (0.02, 0.36) and β (95% CI) = 0.20 (0.05-0.35), respectively) and IMAT (β (95% CI) = 0.07 (0.00, 0.14) and β (95% CI) = 0.08 (0.02, 0.13), respectively), whereas substituting animal fat with plant fat was inversely associated with IMAT, ASAT and TAT. In the all-components and standard models, SFA and animal fat were positively associated with liver fat, IMAT and VAT whereas plant fat was inversely associated with IMAT in women. Few associations were observed in men. Circulating polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) were inversely associated with liver fat, IMAT and VAT in both men and women, whereas SFA and monounsaturated fatty acids were positively associated.

CONCLUSIONS

Type of dietary fat may be an important determinant of ectopic fat in humans consuming their habitual diet. Plant fat and PUFA should be preferred over animal fat and SFA. This is corroborated by circulating fatty acids and overall consistent through different energy adjustment models.

TWITTER SUMMARY

In UK Biobank, intake of saturated- and animal fat were positively whereas biomarkers of polyunsaturated fat were inversely associated with liver-, visceral- and intermuscular fat. Type of dietary fat may be a determinant of ectopic fat, a risk factor for cardiometabolic disease.

Theory and performance of substitution models for estimating relative causal effects in nutritional epidemiology

BACKGROUND

Estimating relative causal effects (i.e., "substitution effects") is a common aim of nutritional research. In observational data, this is usually attempted using 1 of 2 statistical modeling approaches: the leave-one-out model and the energy partition model. Despite their widespread use, there are concerns that neither approach is well understood in practice.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to explore and illustrate the theory and performance of the leave-one-out and energy partition models for estimating substitution effects in nutritional epidemiology.

METHODS

Monte Carlo data simulations were used to illustrate the theory and performance of both the leave-one-out model and energy partition model, by considering 3 broad types of causal effect estimands: 1) direct substitutions of the exposure with a single component, 2) inadvertent substitutions of the exposure with several components, and 3) average relative causal effects of the exposure instead of all other dietary sources. Models containing macronutrients, foods measured in calories, and foods measured in grams were all examined.

RESULTS

The leave-one-out and energy partition models both performed equally well when the target estimand involved substituting a single exposure with a single component, provided all variables were measured in the same units. Bias occurred when the substitution involved >1 substituting component. Leave-one-out models that examined foods in mass while adjusting for total energy intake evaluated obscure estimands.

CONCLUSIONS

Regardless of the approach, substitution models need to be constructed from clearly defined causal effect estimands. Estimands involving a single exposure and a single substituting component are typically estimated more accurately than estimands involving more complex substitutions. The practice of examining foods measured in grams or portions while adjusting for total energy intake is likely to deliver obscure relative effect estimands with unclear interpretations.