Multilevel Regression and Poststratification Versus Survey Sample Weighting for Estimating Population Quantities in Large Population Health Studies

Cyr SB, Pham CD, Kreisel KM. Assessing the National Representativeness of Estimates of Antimicrobial-Resistant Urogenital Neisseria gonorrhoeae in US Men, Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project, 2008-2018

BACKGROUND

The percentage of Neisseria gonorrhoeae (GC) isolates with resistance or elevated minimum inhibitory concentrations to antimicrobials has steadily increased. Current estimates are based on the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project (GISP), a sentinel surveillance study of male GC in the United States. This analysis seeks to assess for adjustment before treating aggregated GISP estimates as nationally representative of all reported male urogenital infections.

METHODS

We used multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) to compute national estimates of the proportion of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) (defined as exceeding minimum inhibitory concentration thresholds) in male GC using data from 2008 to 2018 GISP and case reports. Sensitivity analyses investigated the impact of analysis assumptions and unmeasured variables. We additionally produced estimates of 2018 AMR GC cases among US men.

RESULTS

National estimates were consistent with unweighted estimates. The estimated proportion of incident AMR GC infections in men with urogenital GC in 2018 was 51.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 50.1%-52.9%), equating to an estimated 366,300 incident AMR GC infections in US men aged 15 to 39 years. Estimates of AMR for tested antimicrobials in male GC infections in 2018 ranged from 0.16% (95% CI, 0.08%-0.24%) for ceftriaxone to 29.9% (95% CI, 28.6%-31.1%) for ciprofloxacin. Sensitivity analyses revealed that unmeasured data on sex of sex partners could substantially impact weighted estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Antimicrobial resistance among reported incident male urogenital GC infections remains rare for ceftriaxone, the current standard of care. Aggregated GISP data are generally representative of men in the US who are reported with urogenital gonorrhea.