Survival after resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma-development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram

Higher Postoperative Mortality and Inferior Survival After Right-Sided Liver Resection for Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma: Left-Sided Resection is Preferred When Possible

BACKGROUND

A right- or left-sided liver resection can be considered in about half of patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA), depending on tumor location and vascular involvement. This study compared postoperative mortality and long-term survival of right- versus left-sided liver resections for pCCA.

METHODS

Patients who underwent major liver resection for pCCA at 25 Western centers were stratified according to the type of hepatectomy-left, extended left, right, and extended right. The primary outcomes were 90-day mortality and overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Between 2000 and 2022, 1701 patients underwent major liver resection for pCCA. The 90-day mortality was 9% after left-sided and 18% after right-sided liver resection (p < 0.001). The 90-day mortality rates were 8% (44/540) after left, 11% (29/276) after extended left, 17% (51/309) after right, and 19% (108/576) after extended right hepatectomy (p < 0.001). Median OS was 30 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 27-34) after left and 23 months (95% CI 20-25) after right liver resection (p < 0.001), and 33 months (95% CI 28-38), 27 months (95% CI 23-32), 25 months (95% CI 21-30), and 21 months (95% CI 18-24) after left, extended left, right, and extended right hepatectomy, respectively (p < 0.001). A left-sided resection was an independent favorable prognostic factor for both 90-day mortality and OS compared with right-sided resection, with similar results after excluding 90-day fatalities.

CONCLUSIONS

A left or extended left hepatectomy is associated with a lower 90-day mortality and superior OS compared with an (extended) right hepatectomy for pCCA. When both a left and right liver resection are feasible, a left-sided liver resection is preferred.

Development and validation of a novel preoperative clinical model for predicting lymph node metastasis in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUD

We aimed to develop a novel preoperative nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis (LNM) in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) patients.

METHODS

160 pCCA patients were enrolled at Lihuili Hospital from July 2006 to May 2022. A novel nomogram model was established to predict LNM in pCCA patients based on the independent predictive factors selected by the multivariate logistic regression model. The precision of the nomogram model was evaluated through internal and external validation with calibration curve statistics and the concordance index (C-index). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate and determine the clinical utility of the nomogram.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that age (OR = 0.963, 95% CI: 0.930-0.996, P = 0.030), CA19-9 level (> 559.8 U/mL vs. ≤559.8 U/mL: OR = 3.162, 95% CI: 1.519-6.582, P = 0.002) and tumour diameter (OR = 1.388, 95% CI: 1.083-1.778, P = 0.010) were independent predictive factors of LNM in pCCA patients. The C-index was 0.763 (95% CI: 0.667-0.860) and 0.677 (95% CI: 0.580-0.773) in training cohort and validation cohort, respectively. ROC curve analysis indicated the comparative stability and adequate discriminative ability of nomogram. The sensitivity and specificity were 0.820 and 0.652 in training cohort and 0.704 and 0.649 in validation cohort, respectively. DCA revealed that the nomogram model could augment net benefits in the prediction of LNM in pCCA patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel prediction model is useful for predicting LNM in pCCA patients and showed adequate discriminative ability and high predictive accuracy.

Cholangiocarcinoma: Recent Advances in Molecular Pathobiology and Therapeutic Approaches

Cholangiocarcinomas (CCA) pose a complex challenge in oncology due to diverse etiologies, necessitating tailored therapeutic approaches. This review discusses the risk factors, molecular pathology, and current therapeutic options for CCA and explores the emerging strategies encompassing targeted therapies, immunotherapy, novel compounds from natural sources, and modulation of gut microbiota. CCA are driven by an intricate landscape of genetic mutations, epigenetic dysregulation, and post-transcriptional modification, which differs based on geography (e.g., for liver fluke versus non-liver fluke-driven CCA) and exposure to environmental carcinogens (e.g., exposure to aristolochic acid). Liquid biopsy, including circulating cell-free DNA, is a potential diagnostic tool for CCA, which warrants further investigations. Currently, surgical resection is the primary curative treatment for CCA despite the technical challenges. Adjuvant chemotherapy, including cisplatin and gemcitabine, is standard for advanced, unresectable, or recurrent CCA. Second-line therapy options, such as FOLFOX (oxaliplatin and 5-FU), and the significance of radiation therapy in adjuvant, neoadjuvant, and palliative settings are also discussed. This review underscores the need for personalized therapies and demonstrates the shift towards precision medicine in CCA treatment. The development of targeted therapies, including FDA-approved drugs inhibiting FGFR2 gene fusions and IDH1 mutations, is of major research focus. Investigations into immune checkpoint inhibitors have also revealed potential clinical benefits, although improvements in survival remain elusive, especially across patient demographics. Novel compounds from natural sources exhibit anti-CCA activity, while microbiota dysbiosis emerges as a potential contributor to CCA progression, necessitating further exploration of their direct impact and mechanisms through in-depth research and clinical studies. In the future, extensive translational research efforts are imperative to bridge existing gaps and optimize therapeutic strategies to improve therapeutic outcomes for this complex malignancy.

Three-dimensional visualization and evaluation of hilar cholangiocarcinoma resectability and proposal of a new classification

BACKGROUND

As digital medicine has exerted profound influences upon diagnosis and treatment of hepatobiliary diseases, our study aims to investigate the accuracy of three-dimensional visualization and evaluation (3DVE) system in assessing the resectability of hilar cholangiocarcinoma (hCCA), and explores its potential clinical value.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The discovery cohort, containing 111 patients from April 2013 to December 2019, was retrospectively included to determine resectability according to revised criteria for unresectability of hCCA. 3D visualization models were reconstructed to evaluate resectability parameters including biliary infiltration, vascular involvement, hepatic atrophy and metastasis. Evaluation accuracy were compared between contrast-enhanced CT and 3DVE. Logistic analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors of R0 resection. A new comprehensive 3DVE classification of hCCA based on factors influencing resectability was proposed to investigate its role in predicting R0 resection and prognosis. The main outcomes were also analyzed in cohort validation, including 34 patients from January 2020 to August 2022.

RESULTS

3DVE showed an accuracy rate of 91% (95%CI 83.6-95.4%) in preoperatively evaluating hCCA resectability, significantly higher than 81% (95%CI 72.8-87.7%) of that of CT (p = 0.03). By multivariable analysis, hepatic artery involvement in 3DVE was identified an independent risk factor for R1 or R2 resection (OR = 3.5, 95%CI 1.4,8.8, P < 0.01). New 3DVE hCCA classification was valuable in predicting patients' R0 resection rate (p < 0.001) and prognosis (p < 0.0001). The main outcomes were internally validated.

CONCLUSIONS

3DVE exhibited a better efficacy in evaluating hCCA resectability, compared with contrast-enhanced CT. Preoperative 3DVE demonstrated hepatic artery involvement was an independent risk factor for the absence of R0 margin. 3DVE classification of hCCA was valuable in clinical practice.

Mutational spectrum for guiding the decision of adjuvant treatment in patients with resected biliary tract carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Systemic chemotherapy or chemoradiation therapy has proven to be effective in treating advanced biliary tract carcinoma (BTC). However, its efficacy in the adjuvant setting remains controversial. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the prognostic significance of genomic biomarkers in resected BTC and their potential role in stratifying patients for adjuvant treatment.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 113 BTC patients who underwent curative-intent surgery and had available tumor sequencing data. Disease-free survival (DFS) was the primary outcome examined and univariate analysis was used to identify gene mutations with prognostic value. Favorable and unfavoratble gene subsets were distinguished from the selected genes through grouping, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression was used to identify independent prognostic factors of DFS.

RESULTS

Our results indicated that mutations in ACVR1B, AR, CTNNB1, ERBB3, and LRP2 were favorable mutations, while mutations in ARID1A, CDKN2A, FGFR2, NF1, NF2, PBRM1, PIK3CA, and TGFBR1 were unfavorable mutations. In addition to age, sex, and node positive, favorable genes (HR = 0.15, 95% CI = 0.04-0.48, p = 0.001) and unfavorable genes (HR = 2.86, 95% CI = 1.51-5.29, p = 0.001) were identified as independent prognostic factors for DFS. Out of the 113 patients, only 35 received adjuvant treatment whereas the majority (78) did not. For patients with both favorable and unfavorable mutations undetected, adjuvant treatment showed negative effect on DFS (median DFS: S441 vs. 956 days, p = 0.010), but there was no significant difference in DFS among those in other mutational subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Genomic testing might be useful in guiding the decisions regarding adjuvant treatment in BTC.

Nomogram to Predict Recurrence and Guide a Pragmatic Surveillance Strategy After Resection of Hepatoid Adenocarcinoma of the Stomach: A Retrospective Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND

An accurate recurrence risk assessment system and surveillance strategy for hepatoid adenocarcinoma of the stomach (HAS) remain poorly defined. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict postoperative recurrence of HAS and guide individually tailored surveillance strategies.

METHODS

The study enrolled all patients with primary HAS who had undergone curative-intent resection at 14 institutions from 2004 to 2019. Clinicopathologic variables with statistical significance in the multivariate Cox regression were incorporated into a nomogram to build a recurrence predictive model.

RESULTS

The nomogram of recurrence-free survival (RFS) based on independent prognostic factors, including age, preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen, number of examined lymph nodes, perineural invasion, and lymph node ratio, achieved a C-index of 0.723 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.674-0.772) in the whole cohort, which was significantly higher than those of the eighth American Joint Committed on Cancer (AJCC) staging system (C-index, 0.629; 95% CI, 0.573-0.685; P < 0.001). The nomogram accurately stratified patients into low-, middle-, and high-risk groups of postoperative recurrence. The postoperative recurrence risk rates for patients in the middle- and high-risk groups were respectively 3 and 10 times higher than for the low-risk group. The patients in the middle- and high-risk groups showed more recurrence and metastasis, particularly multiple site metastasis, within 36 months after the operation than those in the low-risk group (low, 2.2%; middle, 8.6%; high, 24.0%; P = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram achieved good prediction of postoperative recurrence for the patients with HAS after radical resection. For the middle- and high-risk patients, more active surveillance and targeted examination methods should be adopted within 36 months after the operation, particularly for liver and multiple metastases.

New challenges in cholangiocarcinoma candidates for elective surgery: harnessing the microbiome dysbiosis

BACKGROUND

The gut microbiota, composed by several species of microorganisms, works to preserve the liver-gut homeostasis and plays an important role during digestion and absorption of nutrients, and in the immune response of the host. In this review, we analyzed the influence of microbiota in patients with cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) who were candidates for elective surgery.

METHODS

A literature review was conducted to identify papers that provided empiric evidence to support that the altered microbiota composition (dysbiosis) is related also to CCA development.

RESULTS

Bacteria such as Helicobacter pylori, Helicobacter hepaticus, and Opisthorchis viverrini increase the risk of CCA. The most abundant genera were Enterococcus, Streptococcus, Bacteroides, Klebsiella, and Pyramidobacter in CCA's biliary microbiota. Additionally, levels of Bacteroides, Geobacillus, Meiothermus, and Anoxybacillus genera were significantly higher. An enrichment of Bifidobacteriaceae, Enterobacteriaceae, and Enterococcaceae families has also been observed in CCA tumor tissue. Microbiota is related to postoperative outcomes in abdominal surgery. The combination of caloric restriction diets in liver cancer or CCA increases the effect of the chemotherapy treatment.

CONCLUSION

The correct use of nutrition for microbiota modulation according to each patient's needs could be a therapeutic tool in combination with elective surgery and chemotherapy to diminish side effects and improve prognosis. Further investigations are needed to fully understand the mechanisms by which they are related.

How Can Machine Perfusion Change the Paradigm of Liver Transplantation for Patients with Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma?

Perihilar cholangiocarcinomas (pCCA) are rare yet aggressive tumors originating from the bile ducts. While surgery remains the mainstay of treatment, only a minority of patients are amenable to curative resection, and the prognosis of unresectable patients is dismal. The introduction of liver transplantation (LT) after neoadjuvant chemoradiation for unresectable pCCA in 1993 represented a major breakthrough, and it has been associated with 5-year survival rates consistently >50%. Despite these encouraging results, pCCA has remained a niche indication for LT, which is most likely due to the need for stringent candidate selection and the challenges in preoperative and surgical management. Machine perfusion (MP) has recently been reintroduced as an alternative to static cold storage to improve liver preservation from extended criteria donors. Aside from being associated with superior graft preservation, MP technology allows for the safe extension of preservation time and the testing of liver viability prior to implantation, which are characteristics that may be especially useful in the setting of LT for pCCA. This review summarizes current surgical strategies for pCCA treatment, with a focus on unmet needs that have contributed to the limited spread of LT for pCCA and how MP could be used in this setting, with a particular emphasis on the possibility of expanding the donor pool and improving transplant logistics.

OSCAR: Optimal subset cardinality regression using the L0-pseudonorm with applications to prognostic modelling of prostate cancer

In many real-world applications, such as those based on electronic health records, prognostic prediction of patient survival is based on heterogeneous sets of clinical laboratory measurements. To address the trade-off between the predictive accuracy of a prognostic model and the costs related to its clinical implementation, we propose an optimized L0-pseudonorm approach to learn sparse solutions in multivariable regression. The model sparsity is maintained by restricting the number of nonzero coefficients in the model with a cardinality constraint, which makes the optimization problem NP-hard. In addition, we generalize the cardinality constraint for grouped feature selection, which makes it possible to identify key sets of predictors that may be measured together in a kit in clinical practice. We demonstrate the operation of our cardinality constraint-based feature subset selection method, named OSCAR, in the context of prognostic prediction of prostate cancer patients, where it enables one to determine the key explanatory predictors at different levels of model sparsity. We further explore how the model sparsity affects the model accuracy and implementation cost. Lastly, we demonstrate generalization of the presented methodology to high-dimensional transcriptomics data.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival with unresected cholangiocarcinoma undergoing external radiotherapy

Objective

To analyze the prognostic factors of patients with cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) who were unresected and received radiotherapy to establish a nomogram model for the prediction of patient cancer-specific survival (CSS).

Methods

Suitable patient cases were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, survival rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, prognostic factors were analyzed by Lasso, Cox regression, and nomogram was developed based on independent prognostic factors to predict 6 and 12 months CSS. The consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were tested for the predictive efficacy of the model, respectively.

Results

The primary site, tumor size, T-stage, M-stage, and chemotherapy (P < 0.05) were identified as independent risk factors after Cox and Lasso regression analysis. Patients in training cohort had a 6 months CSS rates was 68.6 ± 2.6%, a 12-month CSS rates was 49.0 ± 2.8%. The median CSS time of 12.00 months (95% CI: 10.17-13.83 months). The C-index was 0.664 ± 0.039 for the training cohort and 0.645 ± 0.042 for the validation cohort. The nomogram predicted CSS and demonstrated satisfactory and consistent predictive performance in 6 (73.4 vs. 64.9%) and 12 months (72.2 vs. 64.9%), respectively. The external validation calibration plot is shown AUC for 6- and 12-month compared with AJCC stage was (71.2 vs. 63.0%) and (65.9 vs. 59.8%). Meanwhile, the calibration plot of the nomogram for the probability of CSS at 6 and 12 months indicates that the actual and nomogram predict that the CSS remains largely consistent. DCA showed that using a nomogram to predict CSS results in better clinical decisions compared to the AJCC staging system.

Conclusion

A nomogram model based on clinical prognostic characteristics can be used to provide CSS prediction reference for patients with CCA who have not undergone surgery but have received radiotherapy.

A novel nomogram for adult primary perihilar cholangiocarcinoma and considerations concerning lymph node dissection

Objective

To construct a reliable nomogram available online to predict the postoperative survival of patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma.

Methods

Data from 1808 patients diagnosed with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma between 2004 and 2015 were extracted from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. They were randomly divided into training and validation sets. The nomogram was established by machine learning and Cox model. The discriminant ability and prediction accuracy of the nomogram were evaluated by concordance index (C-index), receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve. Kaplan-Meier curves show the prognostic value of the associated risk factors and classification system.

Results

Machine learning and multivariate Cox risk regression model showed that sex, age, tumor differentiation, primary tumor stage(T), lymph node metastasis(N), TNM stage, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, lymph node dissection were associated with the prognosis of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma patients relevant factors (P < 0.05). A novel nomogram was established. The calibration plots, C-index and ROC curve for predictions of the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were in excellent agreement. In patients with stage T1 and N0 perihilar cholangiocarcinoma, the prognosis of ≥4 lymph nodes dissected was better than that of 1- 3 lymph nodes dissected (P < 0.01).

Conclusion

The nomogram prognostic prediction model can provide a reference for evaluating the prognosis and survival rate of patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma. Patients with stage T1 and N0 perihilar cholangiocarcinoma have more benefits by increasing the number of lymph node dissection.

The Prognostic Role of True Radical Resection in Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma after Improved Evaluation of Radial Margin Status

BACKGROUND

The evaluation of surgical margins in resected perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHCC) remains a challenging issue. Both ductal (DM) and radial margin (RM) should be considered to define true radical resections (R0). Although DM status is routinely described in pathological reports, RM status is often overlooked. Therefore, the frequency of true R0 and its impact on survival might be biased.

OBJECTIVE

To improve the evaluation of RM status and investigate the impact of true R0 on survival.

METHODS

From 2014 to 2020, 90 patients underwent curative surgery for PHCC at Verona University Hospital, Verona, Italy. Both DM (proximal and distal biliary margin) and RM (hepatic, periductal, and vascular margin) status were evaluated by expert hepatobiliary pathologists. Patients with lymph-node metastases or positive surgical margins (R1) were candidates for adjuvant treatment. Clinicopathological and survival data were retrieved from an institutional database.

RESULTS

True R0 were 46% (41) and overall R1 were 54% (49). RM positivity resulted in being higher than DM positivity (48% versus 27%). Overall survival was better in patients with true R0 than in patients with R1 (median survival time: 53 vs. 28 months; p = 0.016). Likewise, the best recurrence-free survival was observed in R0 compared with R1 (median survival time: 32 vs. 15 months; p = 0.006). Multivariable analysis identified residual disease status as an independent prognostic factor of both OS (p = 0.009, HR = 2.68, 95% CI = 1.27-5.63) and RFS (p = 0.009, HR = 2.14, 95% CI = 1.20-3.83).

CONCLUSION

Excellent survival was observed in true R0 patients. The improved evaluation of RM status is mandatory to properly stratify prognosis and select patients for adjuvant treatment.

Value of routine intraoperative frozen sections of proximal bile duct margins in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma, a retrospective multicenter and matched case-control study

BACKGROUND

Currently, the potential benefits of additional resection after positive proximal intraoperative frozen sections (IFS) in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) on residual disease and oncological outcome remain uncertain. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the number of R0 resections after additional resection of a positive proximal IFS and the influence of additional resections on overall survival (OS) in patients with pCCA.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective, multicenter, matched case-control study was performed, including patients undergoing resection for pCCA between 2000 and 2019 at three tertiary centers. Primary outcome was the number of achieved 'additional' R0 resections. Secondary outcomes were OS, recurrence, severe morbidity and mortality.

RESULTS

Forty-four out of 328 patients undergoing resection for pCCA had a positive proximal IFS. An additional resection was performed in 35 out of 44 (79.5%) patients, which was negative in 24 (68.6%) patients. Nevertheless, seven out of these 24 patients were eventually classified as R1 resection due to other positive resection margins. Therefore, 17 (48.6%) patients could be classified as "true" R0 resection after additional resection. Ninety-day mortality after R1 resections was high (25%) and strongly influenced OS. After correction for 90-day mortality, median OS after negative additional resection was 33 months (95%CI:29.5-36.5) compared to 30 months (95%CI:24.4-35.6) after initial R1 (P = 0.875) and 46 months (95%CI:32.7-59.3) after initial R0 (P = 0.348).

CONCLUSION

There were only 17 patients (out of a total of 328 patients) that potentially benefitted from routine IFS. Additional resection for a positive IFS leading to R0 resection was not associated with improved long-term survival.

Clockwise Anterior-to-Posterior-Double Isolation (CAP-DI) Approach for Portal Lymphadenectomy in Biliary Tract Cancer: Technique, Yield, and Outcomes

Background: Portal lymphadenectomy (PLND) is the current standard for oncologic resection of biliary tract cancers (BTCs). However, published data show it is performed infrequently and often yields less than the recommended 6 lymph nodes. We sought to identify yield and outcomes using a Clockwise Anterior-to-Posterior technique with Double Isolation of critical structures (CAP-DI) for PLND. Methods: Consecutive patients undergoing complete PLND for BTCs using CAP-DI technique were identified (2015−2021). Lymph node (LN) yield and predictors of LN count were examined. Secondary outcomes included intraoperative and postoperative outcomes, which were compared to patients having hepatectomy without PLND. Results: In total, 534 patients were included; 71 with complete PLND (36 gallbladder cancers, 24 intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas, 11 perihilar cholangiocarcinomas) and 463 in the control group. The median PLND yield was 5 (IQR 3−8; range 0−17) and 46% had at least 6 nodes retrieved. Older age was associated with lower likelihood of ≥6 node PLND yield (p = 0.032), which remained significant in bivariate analyses with other covariates (p < 0.05). After adjustment for operative factors, performance of complete PLND was independently associated with longer operative time (+46.4 min, p = 0.001), but no differences were observed in intraoperative or postoperative outcomes compared to the control group (p > 0.05). Conclusions: Yield following PLND frequently falls below the recommended minimum threshold of 6 nodes despite a standardized stepwise approach to complete clearance. Older age may be weakly associated with lower PLND yield. While all efforts should be made for complete node retrieval, failure to obtain 6 nodes may be an unrealistic metric of surgical quality.

Circulating tumor cells as a preoperative risk marker for occult metastases in patients with resectable cholangiocarcinoma

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is an aggressive tumor associated with a high rate of recurrence after resection. An important risk factor for recurrence is the presence of occult metasta-ses, which are not radiologically detectable at the time of diagnosis. There are currently no biomarkers for the preoperative assessment of micrometastases. A previous study demonstrated the prognostic relevance of circulating tumor cells (CTC) in patients with advanced CCA but the potential of CTCs as a preoperative marker for detecting occult metastases has not been investigated so far. In this two-phase study, we first recruited a cohort of 27 patients with histologically proven, metastatic CCA or gallbladder cancer (GBCA) to assess feasibility (feasibility cohort, FC). CTCs were measured in the peripheral blood using the CellSearch System (CSS) between October 2012 and January 2017. Subsequently, in 11 patients undergoing curative-intended resection for CCA (intrahepatic CCA: n =4; extrahepatic CCA n= 6; gallbladder cancer: n=1), peripheral and central venous blood specimens were obtained to improve detection rate by simultaneous measurement and to elucidate distribution of CTCs in different venous compartments. Presence of CTCs detection was correlated with postoperative TNM-status.

In the FC, CTCs (range 1-3 cells, median: 1) were detected in 40% (11/27) patients and were signifi-cantly associated with worse overall survival (hazard ratio: 3.59; 95% CI: 1.79- 7.1; p = 0.04). By combined peripheral and central measurement, CTC detection was increased to 54% (6/11) in the resection cohort (RC) and was associated with metastases that were only identified during the surgical procedure (peritoneal carcinoma: n = 1; infiltration of the duodenum: n = 1) or immediately after surgery (evidence of pulmonary metastases by CT scan two days after resection, not evident on initial tumor staging prior resection). Taken together, in this single center pilot study, we demonstrated that CTCs are detectable in CCA patients and are associated with significantly impaired survival in patients at metastatic stage. Detection rate prior to surgery was improved to >50% by combined peripheral and central measurement. Moreover, preoperative CTC detection may indicate existing metastases and could help to stratify patients more accurately.

Construction and Validation of Prognosis Nomogram for Metastatic Lung Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study

Purpose: This study aimed to establish a nomogram to predict overall survival in lung squamous cell carcinoma patients with metastasis for clinical decision-making. Methods: We investigated lung squamous cell carcinoma patients diagnosed with stage M1 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Final Results database between 2010 and 2015. They were divided into training cohort and validation cohort. In the training cohort, statistically significant prognostic factors were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis, and an individualized nomogram model was developed. The model was evaluated by C-index, area under the curve, calibration plot, decision curve analysis, and risk group stratification. Results: In total, 9910 patients were included in our study, including 6937 in the training cohort and 2937 in the validation cohort. Factors containing age, T stage, N stage, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy were independent prognostic factors for overall survival and were used in the construction of the nomogram. The C-index in the training cohort and validation cohort were 0.711 (95% confidenc interval: 0.705-0.717) and 0.707 (95% confidenc interval: 0.697-0.717), respectively. The time-dependent area under the curve of both groups was higher than 0.7 within 5 years. Calibration plots indicated that the nomogram-predicted survival was consistent with the recorded 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year prognoses. Furthermore, decision curve analysis revealed that the nomogram was clinically useful and had a better discriminative ability to recognize patients at high risk than the TNM criteria-based tumor staging. And then we developed an overall survival risk classification system based on the nomogram total points for each patient, which divided all patients into a high-risk group and a low-risk group. Finally, we implemented this nomogram in a free online tool. Conclusion: We constructed a nomogram and a corresponding risk classification system predicting the overall survival of lung squamous cell carcinoma patients with metastasis. These tools can assist in patients’ counseling and guide treatment decision-making.

A novel nomogram and risk classification system predicting the overall survival of patients with papillary renal cell carcinoma after nephrectomy: A population-based study

Background

Papillary renal cell carcinoma (pRCC) is the largest histologic subtype of non-clear-cell RCC. To date, there is no reliable nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with pRCC after nephrectomy. We aimed to first establish an effective nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with pRCC after nephrectomy.

Methods

A total of 3,528 eligible patients with pRCC after nephrectomy were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2015. The patients were randomized into the training cohort (n = 2,472) and the validation cohort (n = 1,056) at a 7:3 ratio. In total, 122 real-world samples from our institute (titled the AHMU-pRCC cohort) were used as the external validation cohort. Univariate and subsequent multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify OS-related prognostic factors, which were further used to establish a prognostic nomogram for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS probabilities. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by using the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Multivariate Cox analysis showed that age, race, marital status, TNM stage, tumor size, and surgery were significant OS-related prognostic factors. A prognostic model consisting of these clinical parameters was developed and virtualized by a nomogram. High C-index and area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of the nomogram at 1, 3, and 5 years were found in the training, validation, and AHMU-pRCC cohorts. The calibration plot and DCA also showed that the nomogram had a satisfactory clinical application value. A risk classification system was established to risk-stratify patients with pRCC.

Conclusion

Based on a large cohort from the public SEER database, a reliable nomogram predicting the OS of patients with pRCC after nephrectomy was constructed, which could optimize the survival assessment and clinical treatment.

Modification of the eighth AJCC/UICC staging system for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma: An alternative pathological staging system from cholangiocarcinoma-prevalent Northeast Thailand

Aim

This study aims to improve the classification performance of the eighth American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) by proposing the Khon Kaen University (KKU) staging system developed in cholangiocarcinoma-prevalent Northeast Thailand.

Method

Four hundred eighty-eight patients with pCCA who underwent partial hepatectomy between 2002 and 2017 at the Srinagarind Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Thailand, were included. Overall survival (OS) related to clinicopathological features was analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method. Logrank test was performed in univariate analysis to compare OS data of clinicopathological features to determine risk factors for poor survival. Significant features were further analyzed by multivariate analysis (Cox regression) to identify prognostic factors which were then employed to modify the eighth AJCC staging system.

Results

Multivariate analysis showed that growth pattern (HR = 4.67–19.72, p &lt; 0.001), moderately and poorly differentiated histological grades (HR = 2.31–4.99, p &lt; 0.05 and 0.001, respectively), lymph node metastasis N1 and N2 (HR = 1.37 and 2.18, p &lt; 0.05 and 0.01, respectively), and distant metastasis (HR = 2.11, p &lt; 0.001) were independent factors when compared to their respective reference groups. There was a clear separation of patients with pCCA into KKU stage: I [OS = 116 months (mo.)], II (OS = 46 mo.), IIIA (OS = 24 mo.), IIIB (11 mo.), IVA (OS = 7 mo.), and IVB (OS = 6 mo.).

Conclusion

The new staging system was based on the incorporation of growth patterns to modify the eighth AJCC staging system. The classification performance demonstrated that the KKU staging system was able to classify and distinctly separate patients with pCCA into those with good and poor outcomes. It was also able to improve the stratification performance and discriminative ability of different stages of pCCA classification better than the eighth AJCC staging system. Hence, the KKU staging system is proposed as an alternative model to augment the accuracy of survival prognostication and treatment performance for patients with pCCA.

Development and external validation of a prediction model for overall survival after resection of distal cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Various prognostic factors are associated with overall survival (OS) after resection of distal cholangiocarcinoma (dCCA). The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model for 3-year OS after pancreatoduodenectomy for dCCA.

METHODS

The derivation cohort consisted of all patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy for dCCA in the Netherlands (2009-2016). Clinically relevant variables were selected based on the Akaike information criterion using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model, with model performance being assessed by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. External validation was performed using patients from the Belgium Cancer Registry (2008-2016), and patients from two university hospitals of Southampton (U.K.) and Verona (Italy).

RESULTS

Independent prognostic factors for OS in the derivation cohort of 454 patients after pancreatoduodenectomy for dCCA were age (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03), pT (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.07-1.90) and pN category (pN1: HR 1.78, 95% CI 1.37-2.32; pN2: HR 2.21, 95% CI 1.63-3.01), resection margin status (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.39-2.29) and tumour differentiation (HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.62-2.53). The prediction model was based on these prognostic factors. The optimism-adjusted C-indices were similar in the derivation cohort (0.69), and in the Belgian (0.66) and Southampton-Verona (0.68) validation cohorts. Calibration was accurate in the Belgian validation cohort (slope = 0.93, intercept = 0.12), but slightly less optimal in the Southampton-Verona validation cohort (slope = 0.88, intercept = 0.32). Based on this model, three risk groups with different prognoses were identified (3-year OS of 65.4%, 33.2% and 11.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

The prediction model for 3-year OS after resection of dCCA had reasonable performance in both the derivation and geographically external validation cohort. Calibration slightly differed between validation cohorts. The model is readily available via www. pancreascalculator.com to inform patients from Western European countries on their prognosis, and may be used to stratify patients for clinical trials.

Impact of Positive Lymph Nodes and Resection Margin Status on the Overall Survival of Patients with Resected Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma: The ENSCCA Registry

Background: Lymph node metastasis and positive resection margins have been reported to be major determinants of overall survival (OS) and poor recurrence-free survival (RFS) for patients who underwent resection for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA). However, the prognostic value of positive lymph nodes independently from resection margin status on OS has not been evaluated. Methods: From the European Cholangiocarcinoma (ENSCCA) registry, patients who underwent resection for pCCA between 1994 and 2021 were included in this retrospective cohort study. The primary outcome was OS stratified for resection margin and lymph node status. The secondary outcome was recurrence-free survival. Results: A total of 325 patients from 11 different centers and six European countries were included. Of these, 194 (59.7%) patients had negative resection margins. In 113 (34.8%) patients, positive lymph nodes were found. Lymph node status, histological grade, and ECOG performance status were independent prognostic factors for survival. The median OS for N0R0, N0R1, N+R0, and N+R1 was 38, 30, 18, and 12 months, respectively (p < 0.001). Conclusion: These data indicate that in the presence of positive regional lymph nodes, resection margin status does not determine OS or RFS in patients with pCCA. Achieving negative margins in patients with positive nodes should not come at the expense of more extensive surgery and associated higher mortality.

Liver Transplant for Non-Hepatocellular Malignancies: A Review for Radiologists

Although traditionally only performed for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the last decade has seen a resurgence in the use of liver transplant (LT) for non-HCC malignancies, likely due to improvements in neoadjuvant treatment regimens as well as the establishment of well-defined eligibility criteria. Given promising survival results, patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma, neuroendocrine liver metastases, and hepatic hemangioendothelioma are eligible to receive Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) exception for tumors that meet well-defined criteria. Additional tumors such as colorectal cancer liver metastases, intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, and hepatocholangiocarcinoma may undergo transplant at specialized centers with well-defined protocols, although are not yet eligible for MELD exception. Transplant eligibility criteria commonly incorporate imaging findings, yet due to the relatively novel and evolving nature of LT for non-HCC malignancies, radiologists may be unaware of relevant criteria or of the implications of their imaging interpretations. Knowledge of the allocation process, background, and liver transplant selection criteria facilitates the radiologist' active participation in multidisciplinary discussion, leading to better and more equitable care for transplant candidates with non-HCC malignancy. This review provides an overview of transplant allocation and selection criteria in patients with non-HCC malignancy, with an emphasis on imaging features and the role of the radiologist.

Preoperative Management of Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma

Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma is a rare hepatobiliary malignancy that requires thoughtful, multidisciplinary evaluation in the preoperative setting to ensure optimal patient outcomes. Comprehensive preoperative imaging, including multiphase CT angiography and some form of cholangiographic assessment, is key to assessing resectability. While many staging systems exist, the Blumgart staging system provides the most useful combination of resectability assessment and prognostic information for use in the preoperative setting. Once resectability is confirmed, volumetric analysis should be performed. Upfront resection without biliary drainage or portal venous embolization may be considered in patients without cholangitis and an estimated functional liver remnant (FLR) > 40%. In patients with FLR < 40%, judicious use of biliary drainage is advised, with the goal of selective biliary drainage of the functional liver remnant. Percutaneous biliary drainage may avoid inadvertent contamination of the contralateral biliary tree and associated infectious complications, though the relative effectiveness of percutaneous and endoscopic techniques is an ongoing area of study and debate. Patients with low FLR also require intervention to induce hypertrophy, most commonly portal venous embolization, in an effort to reduce the rate of postoperative liver failure. Even with extensive preoperative workup, many patients will be found to have metastatic disease at exploration and diagnostic laparoscopy may reduce the rate of non-therapeutic laparotomy. Management of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma continues to evolve, with ongoing efforts to improve preoperative liver hypertrophy and to further define the role of transplantation in disease management.

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model to Predict Recurrence-Free Survival After Curative Resection for Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma: A Multicenter Study

Background

Recurrence is the main cause of death in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) patients after surgery. Identifying patients with a high risk of recurrence is important for decision-making regarding neoadjuvant therapy to improve long-term outcomes.

Aim

The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prognostic model to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) after curative resection of pCCA.

Methods

Patients following curative resection for pCCA from January 2008 to January 2016 were identified from a multicenter database. Using random assignment, 70% of patients were assigned to the training cohort, and the remaining 30% were assigned to the validation cohort. Independent predictors of RFS after curative resection for pCCA were identified and used to construct a prognostic model. The predictive performance of the model was assessed using calibration curves and the C-index.

Results

A total of 341 patients were included. The median overall survival (OS) was 22 months, and the median RFS was 14 months. Independent predictors associated with RFS included lymph node involvement, macrovascular invasion, microvascular invasion, maximum tumor size, tumor differentiation, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9. The model incorporating these factors to predict 1-year RFS demonstrated better calibration and better performance than the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system in both the training and validation cohorts (C-indexes: 0.723 vs. 0.641; 0.743 vs. 0.607).

Conclusions

The prognostic model could identify patients at high risk of recurrence for pCCA to inform patients and surgeons, help guide decision-making for postoperative adjuvant therapy, and improve survival.

Predicting Disease-Specific Survival for Patients With Primary Cholangiocarcinoma Undergoing Curative Resection by Using a Decision Tree Model

Background

The aim of this study was to derive and validate a decision tree model to predict disease-specific survival after curative resection for primary cholangiocarcinoma (CCA).

Method

Twenty-one clinical characteristics were collected from 482 patients after curative resection for primary CCA. A total of 289 patients were randomly allocated into a training cohort and 193 were randomly allocated into a validation cohort. We built three decision tree models based on 5, 12, and 21 variables, respectively. Area under curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity were used for comparison of the 0.5-, 1-, and 3-year decision tree models and regression models. AUC and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to determine the predictive performances of the 0.5-, 1-, and 3-year decision tree models and AJCC TNM stage models.

Results

According to the fitting degree and the computational cost, the decision tree model derived from 12 variables displayed superior predictive efficacy to the other two models, with an accuracy of 0.938 in the training cohort and 0.751 in the validation cohort. Maximum tumor size, resection margin, lymph node status, histological differentiation, TB level, ALBI, AKP, AAPR, ALT, γ-GT, CA19-9, and Child-Pugh grade were involved in the model. The performances of 0.5-, 1-, and 3-year decision tree models were better than those of conventional models and AJCC TNM stage models.

Conclusion

We developed a decision tree model to predict outcomes for CCA undergoing curative resection. The present decision tree model outperformed other clinical models, facilitating individual decision-making of adjuvant therapy after curative resection.

Predictive model for the intraoperative unresectability of hilar cholangiocarcinoma: Reducing futile surgical exploration

Introduction

Surgical exploration is widely performed in hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HCCA), but the intraoperative resectability rate is only 60%-80%. Exploration substantially increases pain and mental stress, and the costs and length of hospital stay are considerably increased. Identifying preoperative risk factors associated with unresectability could decrease unnecessary exploration.

Materials and methods

In total, 440 HCCA patients from multiple centers were enrolled. Those receiving surgical exploration were divided into the resected and unresected groups. Morphological variables including Bismuth classification, lymph node metastasis and vessel invasion were obtained from radiological exams. Logistic regression for the training cohort was used to identify risk factors for unresectability, and a nomogram was constructed to calculate the unresectability rate. A calibration curve assessed the power of the nomogram.

Results

Among 311 patients receiving surgical exploration, 45 (14.7%) were unresectable by intraoperative judgment. Compared with the resected group, unresected patients had similar costs (p = 0.359) and lengths of hospital stay (p = 0.439). Multivariable logistic regression of the training cohort (235 patients) revealed that CA125, Bismuth-Corlette type IV, lymph node metastasis and hepatic artery invasion were risk factors for unresectability. Liver atrophy (p = 0.374) and portal vein invasion (p = 0.114) were not risk factors. The nomogram was constructed based on the risk factors. The concordance index (C-index) values of the calibration curve for predicting the unresectability rate of the training and validation (76 patients) cohorts were 0.900 (95% CI, 0.835–0.966) and 0.829 (95% CI, 0.546–0.902), respectively.

Conclusion

Analysis of preoperative factors could reveal intraoperative unresectability and reduce futile surgical explorations, ultimately benefiting HCCA patients.

Prognostic nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival in patients with resected hilar cholangiocarcinoma: a large cohort study

BACKGROUND

The aim of the study was to establish and validate a novel prognostic nomogram of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in resected hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HCCA) patients.

METHODS

A training cohort of 536 patients and an internal validation cohort of 270 patients were included in this study. The demographic and clinicopathological variables were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were performed in the training cohort, followed by the construction of nomogram for CSS. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots and compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging systems. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was applied to measure the predictive power and clinical value of the nomogram.

RESULTS

The nomogram incorporating age, tumor size, tumor grade, lymph node ratio (LNR) and T stage parameters was with a C-index of 0.655 in the training cohort, 0.626 in the validation cohort, compared with corresponding 0.631, 0.626 for the AJCC 8th staging system. The calibration curves exhibited excellent agreement between CSS probabilities predicted by nomogram and actual observation in the training cohort and validation cohort. DCA indicated that this nomogram generated substantial clinical value.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed nomogram provided a more accurate prognostic prediction of CSS for individual patients with resected HCCA than the AJCC 8th staging system, which might be served as an effective tool to stratify resected HCCA patients with high risk and facilitate optimizing therapeutic benefit.

Textbook outcome after major hepatectomy for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma - definitions and influencing factors

Purpose

The concept of “textbook outcome” (TO) as composite quality measure depicting the ideal surgical has not yet been defined for patients undergoing major hepatectomy (MH) for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC). This study sought to propose a uniform definition through a systematic literature review as well as to identify patient- or procedure-related factors influencing TO.

Methods

In this retrospective study, we analyzed all patients undergoing MH for PHC at our department between January 2005 and August 2019. After conducting a systematic literature search, we defined TO as the absence of 90-day mortality and major complications, no hospital readmission within 90 days after discharge, and no prolonged hospital stay (<75. percentile). A binary logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors influencing TO.

Results

Of 283 patients, TO was achieved in 67 (24%) patients. Multivariate analysis revealed that preoperative biliary drainage was associated with a decreased (OR= 0.405, 95% CI: 0.194–0.845, p=0.016) and left-sided-resection (OR= 1.899, 95% CI: 1.048–3.440, p=0.035) with increased odds for TO. Overall survival (OS) and DFS (disease-free survival) did not differ significantly between the outcome groups (OS: p=0.280, DFS: p=0.735). However, there was a trend towards better overall survival, especially in the late course with TO.

Conclusion

Our analysis proposed a uniform definition of TO after MH for PHC. We identified left hepatectomy as an independent factor positively influencing TO. In patients where both right- and left-sided resections are feasible, this underlines the importance of a careful selection of patients who are scheduled for right hepatectomy.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00423-022-02467-y.

Actual 10-Year Survival after Resection of Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma: What Factors Preclude a Chance for Cure?

Simple Summary

Long-term survival for patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) is rare. The median overall survival of patients undergoing curative-intent surgery for pCCA is 19 to 39 months. This multicenter study aimed to determine the cure rate and to identify clinicopathological factors that may preclude cure. Four hundred and sixty patients were included with a median follow-up of 10 years. Median OS was 29.9 months. Twenty-nine (6%) patients reached 10-year OS. The observed cure rate was 5%. Factors that virtually precluded cure (i.e., below 1%) according to the mixture cure model included age above 70, Bismuth–Corlette type IV tumors, hepatic artery reconstruction, and positive resection margins. Cure was unlikely (i.e., below 3%) in patients with positive lymph nodes or poor tumor differentiation. These factors need to be considered in patient counseling and long-term follow-up after surgery.

Abstract

Complete resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) is the only potentially curative treatment. Long-term survival data is rare and prognostic analyses are hindered by the rarity of the disease. This study aimed to determine the cure rate and to identify clinicopathological factors that may preclude cure. All consecutive resections for pathologically confirmed pCCA between 2000 and 2009 in 22 centers worldwide were included in a retrospective cohort study. Each center included its retrospective data series. A total of 460 patients were included with a median follow-up of 10 years for patients alive at last follow-up. Median overall survival (OS) was 29.9 months and 10-year OS was 12.8%. Twenty-nine (6%) patients reached 10-year OS. The observed cure rate was 5%. Factors that virtually precluded cure (i.e., below 1%) according to the mixture cure model included age above 70, Bismuth-Corlette type IV tumors, hepatic artery reconstruction, and positive resection margins. Cure was unlikely (i.e., below 3%) in patients with positive lymph nodes or poor tumor differentiation. These factors need to be considered in patient counseling and long-term follow-up after surgery.

Surgical morbidity in the first year after resection for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Surgery for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) is associated with high morbidity and mortality rates. The impact of surgery for pCCA may affect patients after discharge. The aim of this study was to investigate all morbidity and mortality during the first year after surgery for pCCA.

METHODS

All consecutive liver resections for suspected pCCA between 2000 and 2019 at two tertiary referral centers were included. All morbidity and mortality until one year after surgery was collected retrospectively, including readmissions and reinterventions. All recurrences within the first year were scored to calculate disease-free survival.

RESULTS

In 250 patients, the major morbidity rate was 61% (152/250), in-hospital mortality was 15% (37/250) and 90-day mortality was 16% (40/250). In the 213 discharged patients, 98 patients (46%) suffered 260 surgical complications. These complications required 185 readmissions in 92 patients (43%) and 400 reinterventions in 110 patients (52%), including 330 radiological (83%), 61 endoscopic (15%) and 9 surgical reinterventions (2%). One-year overall survival was 77% and one-year disease-free survival was 70%. Out of the 20 patients who died within the first year after discharge, 15 died of recurrent disease and 3 due to surgery related complications and 2 of unknown causes.

CONCLUSION

Readmissions, reinterventions and complications are frequent throughout the first year after surgery for pCCA in tertiary referral hospitals. These adverse events warrants treatment of these complex patients in high expertise centers offering intensive perioperative care and close follow-up of patients after discharge.

Exosomal Cripto-1 Serves as a Potential Biomarker for Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma

Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHCCA) has a poor prognosis, mainly due to diagnosis at an advanced stage. Cripto-1 functions as an oncogene and is highly expressed in several human cancers, however, its clinical application in PHCCA is poorly understood. Herein, we identified that Cripto-1 was released by PHCCA cells via exosomes in vitro and in vivo. Furthermore, an ELISA method was developed to detect exosomal Cripto-1 in the serum of 115 PHCCA patients, 47 cholangitis patients and 65 healthy controls, and it was found that exosomal Cripto-1 was increased in PHCCA patients and associated with metastasis. Compared with traditional serum tumor markers, CA19-9 and CEA, exosomal Cripto-1 demonstrated a larger area under ROC curve for PHCCA diagnosis. The cutoff value of exosomal Cripto-1 was 0.82, achieving a sensitivity of 79.1% and a specificity of 87.5%. As expected, exosomal Cripto-1 levels in immunohistochemically Cripto-1-high cases were significantly elevated compared to in Cripto-1-low cases. When measured 1-week postoperatively, Cripto-1 levels decreased on average from 1.25(0.96-3.26) to 0.85(0.62-1.82). Immunohistochemistry analysis showed Cripto-1 expression was negatively correlated with E-cadherin and was an independent prognostic biomarker for poor survival in PHCCA patients. In conclusion, exosomal Cripto-1 in sera can reflect its expression in the tissue of PHCAA patients and has the potential be a non-invasive biomarker for diagnosis and prognosis of PHCCA.

Establishment and validation of a nomogram for predicting overall survival of node-negative perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

AIM

There lacks a predictive model for overall survival (OS) of node-negative perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC). This study aimed at developing and validating a prognostic nomogram to predict OS of node-negative PHC after resection.

METHODS

We established a nomogram via multivariate regression analysis by using the design cohort (n = 410, obtained from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database), and its external verification was done in the validation cohort (n = 100, the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University). Predictive accuracy of the nomogram was assessed by concordance-index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Performance of the nomogram was compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system.

RESULTS

Multivariate regression analysis revealed that age, tumor grade, and the count of examined lymph nodes were independent prognostic factors for OS of node-negative PHC. The nomogram had a C-index of 0.603 and 0.626 in design cohort and validation cohort, respectively, which was better than that of AJCC staging system (both p < 0.05). The calibration curves showed good consistency between actual and nomogram-predicted OS probabilities. DCA showed that nomogram had better clinical usefulness. Furthermore, the nomogram-predicted scores could stratify the patients into three risk groups, and patients in higher risk group had worse prognosis than those in lower risk group (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The proposed nomogram had a better prognostic accuracy than the AJCC staging system in predicting postoperative OS of node-negative PHC. It was helpful to guide the adjuvant therapeutic strategies for node-negative PHC.

A tailored approach in lymph node-positive perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

Purpose

Extended right hepatectomy is associated with wide surgical margins in PHC and often favored for oncological considerations. However, it remains uncertain whether established surgical principles also apply to the subgroup of node-positive patients. The aim of the present study was to define a tailored surgical approach for patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC) and lymph node metastases.

Methods

We reviewed the course of all consecutive patients undergoing major hepatectomy for PHC between 2005 and 2015 at the Department of Surgery, Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin.

Results

Two hundred and thirty-one patients underwent major hepatectomy for PHC with 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) rates of 72%, 48%, and 36%, and 60%, 22%, and 12%, respectively. In lymph node-positive patients (n = 109, 47%), extended left hepatectomy was associated with improved OS and DFS, respectively, when compared to extended right hepatectomy (p = 0.008 and p = 0.003). Interestingly, OS and DFS did not differ between R0 and R1 resections in those patients (both p = ns). Patients undergoing extended left hepatectomy were more likely to receive adjuvant chemotherapy (p = 0.022). This is of note as adjuvant chemotherapy, besides grading (p = 0.041), was the only independent prognostic factor in node-positive patients (p=0.002).

Conclusion

Patients with node-positive PHC might benefit from less aggressive approaches being associated with lower morbidity and a higher chance for adjuvant chemotherapy. Lymph node sampling might help to guide patients to the appropriate surgical approach according to their lymph node status.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00423-021-02154-4.

Machine-learning radiomics to predict early recurrence in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma after curative resection

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Up to 40%-65% of patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC) rapidly progress to early recurrence (ER) even after curative resection. Quantification of ER risk is difficult and a reliable prognostic prediction tool is absent. We developed and validated a multilevel model, integrating clinicopathology, molecular pathology and radiology, especially radiomics coupled with machine-learning algorithms, to predict the ER of patients after curative resection in PHC.

METHODS

In total, 274 patients who underwent contrast-enhanced CT (CECT) and curative resection at 2 institutions were retrospectively identified and randomly divided into training (n = 167), internal validation (n = 70) and external validation (n = 37) sets. A machine-learning analysis of 18,120 radiomic features based on multiphase CECT and 48 clinico-radiologic characteristics was performed for the multilevel model.

RESULTS

Comprehensively, 7 independent factors (tumour differentiation, lymph node metastasis, pre-operative CA19-9 level, enhancement pattern, A-Shrink score, V-Shrink score and P-Shrink score) were built to the multilevel model and quantified the risk of ER. We benchmarked the gain in discrimination with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.883, superior to the rival clinical and radiomic models (AUCs 0.792-0.805). The accuracy (ACC) of the multilevel model was 0.826, which was significantly higher than those of the conventional staging systems (AJCC 8th (0.641), MSKCC (0.617) and Gazzaniga (0.581)).

CONCLUSION

The radiomics-based multilevel model demonstrated superior performance to rival models and conventional staging systems, and could serve as a visual prognostic tool to plan surveillance of ER and guide post-operative individualized management in PHC.

HMGA1-TRIP13 axis promotes stemness and epithelial mesenchymal transition of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma in a positive feedback loop dependent on c-Myc

Background

Cholangiocarcinoma is a highly malignant cancer with very dismal prognosis. Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma(pCCA) accounts for more than 50% of all cholangiocarcinoma and is well-characterized for its low rate of radical resection. Effects of radiotherapy and chemotherapy of pCCA are very limited.

Methods

Here we screened potential biomarkers of pCCA with transcriptome sequencing and evaluated the prognostic significance of HMGA1 in a large cohort pCCA consisting of 106 patients. With bioinformatics and in vitro/vivo experiments, we showed that HMGA1 induced tumor cell stemness and epithelial-mesenchymal-transition (EMT), and thus facilitated proliferation, migration and invasion by promoting TRIP13 transcription. Moreover, TRIP13 was also an unfavorable prognostic biomarker of pCCA, and double high expression of HMGA1/TRIP13 could predict prognosis more sensitively. TRIP13 promoted pCCA progression by suppressing FBXW7 transcription and stabilizing c-Myc. c-Myc in turn induced the transcription and expression of both HMGA1 and TRIP13, indicating that HMGA-TRIP13 axis facilitated pCCA stemness and EMT in a positive feedback pathway.

Conclusions

HMGA1 and TRIP13 were unfavorable prognostic biomarkers of pCCA. HMGA1 enhanced pCCA proliferation, migration, invasion, stemness and EMT, by inducing TRIP13 expression, suppressing FBXW7 expression and stabilizing c-Myc. Moreover, c-Myc can induce the transcription of HMGA1 and TRIP13, suggesting that HMGA-TRIP13 axis promoted EMT and stemness in a positive feedback pathway dependent on c-Myc.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13046-021-01890-1.

Personalized Preoperative Nomograms Predicting Postoperative Risks after Resection of Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Curative treatment of perihilar tumors requires major hepatectomy responsible for high morbidity and mortality. Current nomograms are based on definitive pathological analysis, not usable for patient selection. Our aim was to propose preoperative predictors for severe morbidity (Dindo-Clavien ≥3) and mortality at sixth month after resection of perihilar tumors.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We reviewed perioperative data of 186 patients operated with major hepatectomy for perihilar tumors between 2012 and 2018 in two high-volume centers. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to determine the preoperative predictors of morbidity and mortality. A stepwise regression in forward direction was developed to select variables for definitive models. Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Akaike information criteria and area under the ROC curves were calculated to validate both nomograms.

RESULTS

Resections were indicated for perihilar and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma in 125 and 61 cases, respectively. Severe complications occurred in 76 patients (40.8%). Nineteen patients (10.2%) deceased before the sixth postoperative month. The predictors of severe morbidity were: male gender, portal vein embolization, planned biliary resection, low psoas muscle area/height² and low hemoglobinemia. The predictors of early mortality were: age, high bilirubinemia, hypoalbuminemia, biliary drainage and long drainage-to-surgery interval. For both models, the p values of Hosmer-Lemeshow tests were of 0.9 and 0.99, respectively, the Akaike information criteria were of 35.5 and 37.7, respectively, and area under the curves was of 0.73 and 0.86, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We developed two accurate and practical nomograms based on exclusively preoperative data to predict early outcomes following the resection of perihilar tumors. If validated in larger series, these tools could be integrated in the decision-making process for patient selection.

Surgical Therapy for Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma: State of the Art

BACKGROUND

Surgical therapy still offers the only chance of long-term survival for patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA). The aim of this narrative review is to summarize the current standards and challenges in the surgical treatment of pCCA.

SUMMARY

After imaging and defining resectability, the first step towards optimal surgical treatment is optimizing biliary drainage and preventing cholangitis, followed by securing adequate future liver remnant volume and/or function. The main goal of resection for pCCA is achieving radical resection and ultimately long-term survival. In order to achieve radical resection, several points will be addressed (e.g., vascular resection and reconstruction, intraoperative frozen sections, right versus left hemihepatectomy, and the usefulness of preoperative [chemo]therapy).

KEY MESSAGES

In order to optimize long-term outcomes for patients with pCCA, collaboration between leading centers should be increased. In addition, this collaboration is necessary to design large prospective randomized controlled trials, as the incidence of pCCA is low and the number of resectable patients is even lower. Currently, most results are based on small retrospective cohort studies resulting in low evidence. In order to properly investigate how to improve long-term survival, we need to set up trials to confirm the results of small series suggesting the positive effect of preoperative chemotherapy and extended lymph node resection.

Integrating Machine Learning and Tumor Immune Signature to Predict Oncologic Outcomes in Resected Biliary Tract Cancer

BACKGROUND

Improved methods are needed to predict outcomes in biliary tract cancers (BTCs). We aimed to build an immune-related signature and establish holistic models using machine learning.

METHODS

Samples were from 305 BTC patients treated with curative-intent resection, divided into derivation and validation cohorts in a two-to-one ratio. Spatial resolution of T cell infiltration and PD-1/PD-L1 expression was assessed by immunohistochemistry. An immune signature was constructed using classification and regression tree. Machine learning was applied to develop prediction models for disease-specific survival (DSS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS).

RESULTS

The immune signature composed of CD3⁺, CD8⁺, and PD-1⁺ cell densities and PD-L1 expression within tumor epithelium significantly stratified patients into three clusters, with median DSS varying from 11.7 to 80.8 months and median RFS varying from 6.2 to 62.0 months. Gradient boosting machines (GBM) outperformed rival machine-learning algorithms and selected the same 11 covariates for DSS and RFS prediction: immune signature, tumor site, age, bilirubin, albumin, carcinoembryonic antigen, cancer antigen 19-9, tumor size, tumor differentiation, resection margin, and nodal metastasis. The clinical-immune GBM models accurately predicted DSS and RFS, with respective concordance index of 0.776-0.816 and 0.741-0.781. GBM models showed significantly improved performance compared with tumor-node-metastasis staging system.

CONCLUSIONS

The immune signature promises to stratify prognosis and allocate treatment in resected BTC. The clinical-immune GBM models accurately predict recurrence and death from BTC following surgery.

Comparison of the Prognostic Value of Platelet-Related Indices in Biliary Tract Cancer Undergoing Surgical Resection

Purpose

Platelet-related indices, including mean platelet volume (MPV) and plateletocrit (PCT), have been reported as new prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) in many cancers, but not yet in biliary tract cancer (BTC). We intended to assess these indices in predicting OS in BTC patients with the aim to build a new prognostic model for patients with BTC after surgical resection.

Materials and Methods

Survival analysis and time receiver operating characteristic analysis were applied to screen the platelet indices. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors and develop a new prognostic model. Harrell’s C-statistics, calibration curves, and decisive curve analysis were used to assess the model.

Results

MPV and platelet distribution width (PDW)/PCT showed the best prognostic accuracy among the platelet indices. In multivariable analysis, factors predictive of poor OS were presence of nodal involvement, Non-radical surgery, poor tumor differentiation, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 > 100 U/mL, MPV > 8.1 fl, and PDW/PCT > 190. The new model was found to be superior to the TNM staging system and our new staging system showed higher discriminative power.

Conclusion

MPV and PDW/PCT have high prognostic value in BTC patients, and the novel staging system based on these two indices showed good discrimination and accuracy compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer 7th TNM staging system.

Liver Transplantation for Peri-hilar Cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation for peri-hilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) following neoadjuvant chemoradiation achieves excellent long-term survival in carefully selected patients with early-stage unresectable pCCA and patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC)-associated pCCA. Strict adherence to selection criteria, aggressive neoadjuvant therapy, operative staging prior to transplantation, and several technical accommodations during the transplant operation are necessary for success. In this review, we provide a contemporaneous overview of liver transplantation for pCCA, including selection criteria, neoadjuvant therapy, operative staging, and technical aspects of liver transplantation unique to patients with pCCA and an irradiated operative field. We also discuss several evolving trends intended to improve patient outcomes.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

Intention-to-treat and patient outcomes after liver transplantation for PSC-associated pCCA are superior to de novo pCCA. Outcomes between living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) and deceased donor liver transplantation are similar for patients with PSC-associated pCCA. However, LDLT for de novo pCCA shows a trend toward more disease recurrence and worse patient survival. A period of waiting time before transplant may be beneficial in selecting for patients with superior outcomes after transplant. Compared with liver transplantation for other indications, there is an increased risk of late arterial and portal vein complications, presumably due to the radiation. However, with close follow-up and prompt intervention for vascular complications, graft loss can be avoided. Neoadjuvant therapy and liver transplantation can achieve results comparable with resection for patients with early-stage unresectable pCCA and is the treatment of choice for patients with pCCA arising in the setting of PSC.

Eligibility for Liver Transplantation in Patients with Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT) has been performed in a select group of patients presenting with unresectable or primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC)-associated perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) in the Mayo Clinic with a reported 5-year overall survival (OS) of 53% on intention-to-treat analysis. The objective of this study was to estimate eligibility for LT in a cohort of pCCA patients in two tertiary referral centers.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with pCCA between 2002 and 2014 were included from two tertiary referral centers in the Netherlands. The selection criteria used by the Mayo Clinic were retrospectively applied to determine the proportion of patients that would have been eligible for LT.

RESULTS

A total of 732 consecutive patients with pCCA were identified, of whom 24 (4%) had PSC-associated pCCA. Overall, 154 patients had resectable disease on imaging and 335 patients were ineligible for LT because of lymph node or distant metastases. An age limit of 70 years led to the exclusion of 50 patients who would otherwise be eligible for LT. After applying the Mayo Clinic criteria, only 34 patients (5%) were potentially eligible for LT. Median survival from diagnosis for these 34 patients was 13 months (95% CI 3-23).

CONCLUSION

Only 5% of all patients presenting with pCCA were potentially eligible for LT under the Mayo criteria. Without transplantation, a median OS of about 1 year was observed.

Advances in adjuvant therapy of biliary tract cancer: an overview of current clinical evidence based on phase II and III trials

Patients with biliary tract cancer (BTC) have a high recurrence rate after complete surgical resection. To reduce the risk of recurrence and to improve survival, several chemotherapeutic agents that have shown to be active in locally advanced and metastatic BTC have been investigated in the adjuvant setting in prospective clinical trials. Based on the results of the BILCAP phase III trial, capecitabine was adapted as the standard of care by the ASCO clinical practice guideline. Ongoing randomized controlled trials mainly compare capecitabine with gemcitabine-based chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy. This review provides an update of adjuvant therapy in BTC based on published data of phase II and III trials and ongoing randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

Evaluation of the New American Joint Committee on Cancer Staging Manual 8th Edition for Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The aim was to compare the prognostic accuracy of cross-sectional imaging of the 7th and 8th editions of the American Joint Committee on Cancer(AJCC) staging system for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma(PHC).

METHODS

All patients with PHC between 2002 and 2014 were included. Imaging at the time of presentation was reassessed and clinical tumor-node-metastasis (cTNM) stage was determined according to the 7th and 8th editions of the AJCC staging system. Comparison of the prognostic accuracy was performed using the concordance index (c-index).

RESULTS

A total of 248 PHC patients were included;45 patients(18.1%) underwent a curative-intent resection, whereas 203 patients(81.9%) did not because they were unfit for surgery or were diagnosed with locally advanced or metastatic disease during workup. Prognostic accuracy was comparable between the 7th and 8th editions (c-index 0.57 vs 0.58). For patients who underwent a curative-intent resection, the prognostic accuracy of the 8th edition (0.67) was higher than the 7th (0.65). For patients who did not undergo a curative-intent resection, the prognostic accuracy was poor in both the 7th as the 8th editions (0.54 vs 0.57).

CONCLUSION

The 7th and 8th editions of the AJCC staging system for PHC have comparable prognostic accuracy. Prognostic accuracy was particularly poor in unresectable patients.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting overall survival of node-negative ampullary carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The accuracy of the current staging system for predicting the overall survival (OS) of patients with ampullary carcinoma (AC) is still unsatisfactory, especially in node-negative (N0) patients. We aimed at establishing a nomogram to accurately predict OS in N0 AC.

METHODS

This study enrolled 697 N0 AC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (design cohort [DC], n = 697) and the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University (validation cohort [VC], n = 112), who underwent surgical resection. The nomogram was established by using prognostic factors determined by univariate and multivariate regression analyses.

RESULTS

The nomogram for OS was developed by using four independent prognostic factors, including age, grade, T stage, and a number of examined lymph nodes. The C-index of a nomogram for OS in DC and VC was 0.665 and 0.731, respectively. Calibration curves showed good consistency of the nomogram. The nomogram had a better accuracy in predicting OS compared with conventional staging system (P < .05). On the basis of nomogram-predicted scores, the patients were stratified into groups with different risk. The OS of low-risk patients was significantly longer than high-risk ones (P ≤ .010).

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram could be used to predict the OS of N0 AC. It could help guide further treatment in clinical practice.

Cost-effective survival prediction for patients with advanced prostate cancer using clinical trial and real-world hospital registry datasets

INTRODUCTION

Predictive survival modeling offers systematic tools for clinical decision-making and individualized tailoring of treatment strategies to improve patient outcomes while reducing overall healthcare costs. In 2015, a number of machine learning and statistical models were benchmarked in the DREAM 9.5 Prostate Cancer Challenge, based on open clinical trial data for metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). However, applying these models into clinical practice poses a practical challenge due to the inclusion of a large number of model variables, some of which are not routinely monitored or are expensive to measure.

OBJECTIVES

To develop cost-specified variable selection algorithms for constructing cost-effective prognostic models of overall survival that still preserve sufficient model performance for clinical decision making.

METHODS

Penalized Cox regression models were used for the survival prediction. For the variable selection, we implemented two algorithms: (i) LASSO regularization approach; and (ii) a greedy cost-specified variable selection algorithm. The models were compared in three cohorts of mCRPC patients from randomized clinical trials (RCT), as well as in a real-world cohort (RWC) of advanced prostate cancer patients treated at the Turku University Hospital. Hospital laboratory expenses were utilized as a reference for computing the costs of introducing new variables into the models.

RESULTS

Compared to measuring the full set of clinical variables, economic costs could be reduced by half without a significant loss of model performance. The greedy algorithm outperformed the LASSO-based variable selection with the lowest tested budgets. The overall top performance was higher with the LASSO algorithm.

CONCLUSION

The cost-specified variable selection offers significant budget optimization capability for the real-world survival prediction without compromising the predictive power of the model.

Dynamic prediction of long-term survival in patients with primary gastric diffuse large B-cell lymphoma: a SEER population-based study

Background

This study investigated a large number of patients to develop a predictive nomogram for survival and a web-based survival rate calculator that can dynamically predict the long-term survival of patients with primary gastric diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

Methods

A total of 2647 patients diagnosed with primary gastric diffuse large B-cell lymphoma from 1998 to 2014 were extracted from the SEER database. We used the Lasso Cox regression model to identify independent risk factors for long-term survival and to develop a predictive nomogram for survival and a web-based survival rate calculator.

Results

The median (mean) follow-up time was 30 months (52.8 months). Cancer-specific survival rates decreased with time, while the 5-year conditional survival increased with time. Cancer-specific deaths were not constant. Cancer-specific deaths of patients within the first 2 years were high, while the risk remained relatively constant after 2 years. The independent risk factors included surgery, chemotherapy, tumor stage and age, according to the Lasso Cox regression analysis. We developed a predictive nomogram and a web-based survival rate calculator (https://linjuli1991.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/). The calibration plot suggested that the actual value exhibited good agreement with the predicted value.

Conclusions

We found that patients with primary gastric diffuse large B-cell lymphoma had a high risk of death during the first 2 years. Additional active follow-up strategies should be provided during this period. This is the first study to develop a predictive nomogram and a web-based survival rate calculator that can provide evidence for individual treatment and follow-up.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-019-5993-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.