Uncovering the phylogeography of Schinus terebinthifolia in South Africa to guide biological control

Evaluating the habitat suitability modeling of Aceria alhagi and Alhagi maurorum in their native range using machine learning techniques.. [DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2441475/v1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0]

Spatial locational modeling techniques are increasingly used in species distribution modeling. However, the implemented techniques differ in their modeling performance. In this study, we tested the predictive accuracy of three algorithms, namely "random forest (RF)," "support vector machine (SVM)," and "boosted regression trees (BRT)" to prepare habitat suitability mapping of an invasive species, Alhagi maurorum, and its potential biological control agent, Aceria alhagi. Location of this study was in Fars Province, southwest of Iran. The spatial distributions of the species were forecasted using GPS devices and GIS software. The probability values of occurrence were then checked using three algorithms. The predictive accuracy of the machine learning (ML) techniques was assessed by computing the “area under the curve (AUC)” of the “receiver-operating characteristic” plot. When the Aceria alhagi was modeled, the AUC values of RF, BRT and SVM were 0.89, 0.81, and 0.79, respectively. However, in habitat suitability models (HSMs) of Alhagi maurorum the AUC values of RF, BRT and SVM were 0.89, 0.80, and 0.73, respectively. The RF model provided significantly more accurate predictions than other algorithms. The importance of factors on the growth and development of Alhagi maurorum and Aceria alhagi was also determined using the partial least squares (PLS) algorithm, and the most crucial factors were the road and slope. Habitat suitability modeling based on algorithms may significantly increase the accuracy of species distribution forecasts, and thus it shows considerable promise for different conservation biological and biogeographical applications.

Using Consensus Land Cover Data to Model Global Invasive Tree Species Distributions

Invasive tree species threaten ecosystems, natural resources, and managed land worldwide. Land cover has been widely used as an environmental variable for predicting global invasive tree species distributions. Recent studies have shown that consensus land cover data can be an effective tool for species distribution modelling. In this paper, consensus land cover data were used as prediction variables to predict the distribution of the 11 most aggressive invasive tree species globally. We found that consensus land cover data could indeed contribute to modelling the distribution of invasive tree species. According to the contribution rate of land cover to the distribution of invasive tree species, we inferred that the cover classes of open water and evergreen broadleaf trees have strong explanatory power regarding the distribution of invasive tree species. Under consensus land cover changes, invasive tree species were mainly distributed near equatorial, tropical, and subtropical areas. In order to limit the damage caused by invasive tree species to global biodiversity, human life, safety, and the economy, strong measures must be implemented to prevent the further expansion of invasive tree species. We suggest the use of consensus land cover data to model global invasive tree species distributions, as this approach has strong potential to enhance the performance of species distribution modelling. Our study provides new insights into the risk assessment and management of invasive tree species globally.