Female-biased sex ratios in urban centers create a "fertility trap" in post-war Finland

Sex, age, and family structure influence dispersal behaviour after a forced migration

Dispersal does not only mean moving from one environment to another, but can also refer to shifting from one social group to another. Individual characteristics such as sex, age and family structure might influence an individual's propensity to disperse. In this study, we use a unique dataset of an evacuated World War II Finnish population, to test how sex, age, number of siblings and birth order influence an individual's dispersal away from their own social group at a time when society was rapidly changing. We found that young women dispersed more than young men, but the difference decreased with age. This suggests that young men might benefit more from staying near a familiar social group, whereas young women could benefit more from moving elsewhere to find work or spouses. We also found that having more younger brothers increased the propensity for firstborns to disperse more than for laterborns, indicating that younger brothers might pressure firstborn individuals into leaving. However, sisters did not have the same effect as brothers. Overall, the results show that individual characteristics are important in understanding dispersal behaviour, but environmental properties such as social structure and the period of flux after World War II might upend the standard predictions concerning residence and dispersal. Social media summary: Individual characteristics influence dispersal away from social group after a forced migration in a Finnish population.

Female-biased sex ratios in urban centers create a "fertility trap" in post-war Finland

Because sex ratios are a key factor regulating mating success and subsequent fitness both across and within species, there is widespread interest in how population-wide sex ratio imbalances affect marriage markets and the formation of families in human societies. Although most modern cities have more women than men and suffer from low fertility rates, the effects of female-biased sex ratios have garnered less attention than male-biased ratios. Here, we analyze how sex ratios are linked to marriages, reproductive histories, dispersal, and urbanization by taking advantage of a natural experiment in which an entire population was forcibly displaced during World War II to other local Finnish populations of varying sizes and sex ratios. Using a discrete time-event generalized linear mixed-effects model, and including factors that change across time, such as annual sex ratio, we show how sex ratios, reproduction, and migration are connected in a female-dominated environment. Young childless women migrated toward urban centers where work was available to women, and away from male-biased rural areas. In such areas where there were more females, women were less likely to start reproduction. Despite this constraint, women showed little flexibility in mate choice, with no evidence for an increase in partner age difference in female-biased areas. We propose that together these behaviors and conditions combine to generate an "urban fertility trap" which may have important consequences for our understanding of the fertility dynamics of today including the current fertility decline across the developed world.