Bayesian sampling of evolutionarily conserved RNA secondary structures with pseudoknots

Fighting against uncertainty: an essential issue in bioinformatics

Many bioinformatics problems, such as sequence alignment, gene prediction, phylogenetic tree estimation and RNA secondary structure prediction, are often affected by the 'uncertainty' of a solution, that is, the probability of the solution is extremely small. This situation arises for estimation problems on high-dimensional discrete spaces in which the number of possible discrete solutions is immense. In the analysis of biological data or the development of prediction algorithms, this uncertainty should be handled carefully and appropriately. In this review, I will explain several methods to combat this uncertainty, presenting a number of examples in bioinformatics. The methods include (i) avoiding point estimation, (ii) maximum expected accuracy (MEA) estimations and (iii) several strategies to design a pipeline involving several prediction methods. I believe that the basic concepts and ideas described in this review will be generally useful for estimation problems in various areas of bioinformatics.

Quantifying variances in comparative RNA secondary structure prediction

Background

With the advancement of next-generation sequencing and transcriptomics technologies, regulatory effects involving RNA, in particular RNA structural changes are being detected. These results often rely on RNA secondary structure predictions. However, current approaches to RNA secondary structure modelling produce predictions with a high variance in predictive accuracy, and we have little quantifiable knowledge about the reasons for these variances.

Results

In this paper we explore a number of factors which can contribute to poor RNA secondary structure prediction quality. We establish a quantified relationship between alignment quality and loss of accuracy. Furthermore, we define two new measures to quantify uncertainty in alignment-based structure predictions. One of the measures improves on the “reliability score” reported by PPfold, and considers alignment uncertainty as well as base-pair probabilities. The other measure considers the information entropy for SCFGs over a space of input alignments.

Conclusions

Our predictive accuracy improves on the PPfold reliability score. We can successfully characterize many of the underlying reasons for and variances in poor prediction. However, there is still variability unaccounted for, which we therefore suggest comes from the RNA secondary structure predictive model itself.