Bayesian Inference of Stochastic Dynamic Models Using Early-Rejection Methods Based on Sequential Stochastic Simulations

Stochastic modelling is an important method to investigate the functions of noise in a wide range of biological systems. However, the parameter inference for stochastic models is still a challenging problem partially due to the large computing time required for stochastic simulations. To address this issue, we propose a novel early-rejection method by using sequential stochastic simulations. We first show that a large number of stochastic simulations are required to obtain reliable inference results. Instead of generating a large number of simulations for each parameter sample, we propose to generate these simulations in a number of stages. The simulation process will go to the next stage only if the accuracy of simulations at the current stage satisfies a given error criterion. We propose a formula to determine the error criterion and use a stochastic differential equation model to examine the effects of different criteria. Three biochemical network models are used to evaluate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method. Numerical results suggest the proposed early-rejection method achieves substantial improvement in the efficiency for the inference of stochastic models.

Inference of Model Parameters Using Particle Filter Algorithm and Copula Distributions

It is widely accepted that experimental data often include noise because of the limitation in experimental conditions. In addition, biological systems inside the cells also contain uncertainty due to small copy molecular numbers. To address this issue, it was proposed that experimental data include both real system state and a noise term whose variance is a constant. An additional assumption is that the observation data of different variables are independent to each other. However, recent research works showed that noise in experimental data might not be the white noise. In addition, the observed values of different variables may be correlated. This work designs a new algorithm to infer the unknown model parameters based on noisy data. The innovation of this method includes a new noise model, in which the variance of noise is dependent on the system state, and a copula particle filter algorithm that uses the copula density functions to describe the dependence of different variables. The proposed algorithm is evaluated by using two deterministic models for gene networks and a stochastic model. Numerical results show that the accuracy of our proposed method is better than that of the widely used Liu-West filter and copula particle filter algorithms.

Hilbert-Schmidt and Sobol sensitivity indices for static and time series Wnt signaling measurements in colorectal cancer - part A

Background

Ever since the accidental discovery of Wingless [Sharma R.P., Drosophila information service, 1973, 50, p 134], research in the field of Wnt signaling pathway has taken significant strides in wet lab experiments and various cancer clinical trials, augmented by recent developments in advanced computational modeling of the pathway. Information rich gene expression profiles reveal various aspects of the signaling pathway and help in studying different issues simultaneously. Hitherto, not many computational studies exist which incorporate the simultaneous study of these issues.

Results

This manuscript ∙ explores the strength of contributing factors in the signaling pathway, ∙ analyzes the existing causal relations among the inter/extracellular factors effecting the pathway based on prior biological knowledge and ∙ investigates the deviations in fold changes in the recently found prevalence of psychophysical laws working in the pathway. To achieve this goal, local and global sensitivity analysis is conducted on the (non)linear responses between the factors obtained from static and time series expression profiles using the density (Hilbert-Schmidt Information Criterion) and variance (Sobol) based sensitivity indices.

Conclusion

The results show the advantage of using density based indices over variance based indices mainly due to the former’s employment of distance measures & the kernel trick via Reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) that capture nonlinear relations among various intra/extracellular factors of the pathway in a higher dimensional space. In time series data, using these indices it is now possible to observe where in time, which factors get influenced & contribute to the pathway, as changes in concentration of the other factors are made. This synergy of prior biological knowledge, sensitivity analysis & representations in higher dimensional spaces can facilitate in time based administration of target therapeutic drugs & reveal hidden biological information within colorectal cancer samples.

Formulation, construction and analysis of kinetic models of metabolism: A review of modelling frameworks

Kinetic models are critical to predict the dynamic behaviour of metabolic networks. Mechanistic kinetic models for large networks remain uncommon due to the difficulty of fitting their parameters. Recent modelling frameworks promise new ways to overcome this obstacle while retaining predictive capabilities. In this review, we present an overview of the relevant mathematical frameworks for kinetic formulation, construction and analysis. Starting with kinetic formalisms, we next review statistical methods for parameter inference, as well as recent computational frameworks applied to the construction and analysis of kinetic models. Finally, we discuss opportunities and limitations hindering the development of larger kinetic reconstructions.