Predictors of failure to reach target sample size in surgical randomized trials

Analysis of Rates of Completion, Delays, and Participant Recruitment in Randomized Clinical Trials in Surgery

IMPORTANCE

Discontinuation and nonpublication are established sources of avoidable waste among surgical trials, but rates of delayed completion and recruiting shortfalls remain unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the rate of delayed completion, incomplete enrollment, and discontinuation among randomized clinical trials in surgical populations and the duration of delays and extent of recruiting shortfalls among these trials.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study examined randomized clinical trials in surgical populations registered on ClinicalTrials.gov between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2014. Analysis was conducted between October 27, 2021, and June 30, 2022.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcomes were the percentages of trials completed on time or with full enrollment. Delays and recruiting shortfalls were identified by comparing projected enrollment and study timeframes prespecified at the time of registration with the actual study duration and enrollment reported on completion or discontinuation. Absolute and relative differences between planned and actual trial conduct were presented for discontinued trials and those completed with delays or recruiting shortfalls.

RESULTS

In total, 2542 randomized clinical trials in surgical populations were included in the study sample, of which 370 (14.6%; 95% CI, 13.2%-15.9%) were completed both on time and with full enrollment. Approximately 1 in 5 trials (20.4%; 95% CI, 18.9%-22.0%) were completed within their planned timeframe, and 1166 trials (45.9%; 95% CI, 43.9%-47.8%) met their prespecified enrollment target. The median delay among completed trials was 12.2 months (IQR, 5.1-24.3 months) or 66.7% (IQR, 30.1%-135.8%) longer than planned. Among completed trials that did not meet their prespecified enrollment target, the median recruiting shortfall was equivalent to 31.0% (IQR, 12.7%-55.5%) of the planned study sample. A total of 546 trials (21.5%; 95% CI, 19.9%-23.1%) were discontinued. The median time to discontinuation was 26.4 months (IQR, 15.2-45.7 months), and the median recruiting shortfall among discontinued trials was equivalent to 92.7% (IQR, 65.0%-100.0%) of the trial's prespecified enrollment target.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cross-sectional study found that delayed completion, recruiting shortfalls, and untimely discontinuation were common among surgical trials. These findings highlight the importance of ensuring that investigators and funders do not overestimate the feasibility of planned trials.

Laparoscopic versus open emergent colectomy for ischemic colitis: a propensity score-matched comparison

Introduction

Laparoscopic colectomy is rarely performed for ischemic colitis. The aim of this propensity score-matched study was to compare preoperative characteristics, intraoperative details and short-term outcomes for emergent laparoscopic colectomy versus the traditional open approach for patients with ischemic colitis.

Methods

Retrospective review of 96 patients who underwent emergent colectomy for ischemic colitis between January 2011 and December 2020 (39 via laparoscopy, 57 via laparotomy) was performed. We compared short-term outcomes after using a one-to-one ratio and nearest-neighbor propensity score matching to obtain similar preoperative and intraoperative parameters in each group.

Results

Patients in the open group experienced more surgical site complications (52.6% vs. 23.0%, p = 0.004), more intra-abdominal abscesses (47.3% vs. 17.9%, p = 0.003), longer need for ventilator support (20 days vs. 0 days, p < 0.001), more major complications (77.2% vs. 43.5%, p = 0.001), higher mortality (49.1% vs. 20.5%, p = 0.004), and longer hospital stay (32 days vs. 19 days, p = 0.001). After propensity score matching (31 patients in each group), patients undergoing open (vs. laparoscopy) had more surgical site complications (45.1% vs. 19.4%, p = 0.030) and required longer ventilator support (14 vs. 3 days, p = 0.039). After multivariate analysis, Charlson Comorbidity Index (p = 0.024), APACHE II score (p = 0.001), and Favier’s classification (p = 0.023) were independent predictors of mortality.

Conclusions

Laparoscopic emergent colectomy for ischemic colitis is feasible and is associated with fewer surgical site complications and better respiratory function, compared to the open approach.