Development of prognostic models for survival and care status in sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease

Interpretable deep learning survival predictions in sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease

BACKGROUND

Sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD) is a rapidly progressive and fatal prion disease with significant public health implications. Survival is heterogenous, posing challenges for prognostication and care planning. We developed a survival model using diagnostic data from comprehensive UK sCJD surveillance.

METHODS

Using national CJD surveillance data from the United Kingdom (UK), we included 655 cases of probable or definite sCJD according to 2017 international consensus diagnostic criteria between 01/2017 and 01/2022. Data included symptoms at diagnosis, CSF RT-QuIC and 14-3-3, MRI and EEG findings, as well as sex, age, PRNP codon 129 polymorphism, CSF total protein and S100b. An artificial neural network based multitask logistic regression was used for survival analysis. Model-agnostic interpretation methods was used to assess the contribution of individual features on model outcome.

RESULTS

Our algorithm had a c-index of 0.732, IBS of 0.079, and AUC at 5 and 10 months of 0.866 and 0.872, respectively. This modestly improved on Cox proportional hazard model (c-index 0.730, IBS 0.083, AUC 0.852 and 0863) but was not statistically significant. Both models identified codon 129 polymorphism and CSF 14-3-3 to be significant predictive features.

CONCLUSIONS

sCJD survival can be predicted using routinely collected clinical data at diagnosis. Our analysis pipeline has similar levels of performance to classical methods and provide clinically meaningful interpretation which help deepen clinical understanding of the condition. Further development and clinical validation will facilitate improvements in prognostication, care planning, and stratification to clinical trials.

FDG-PET patterns associate with survival in patients with prion disease

OBJECTIVE

Prion disease classically presents with rapidly progressive dementia, leading to death within months of diagnosis. Advances in diagnostic testing have improved recognition of patients with atypical presentations and protracted disease courses, raising key questions surrounding the relationship between patterns of neurodegeneration and survival. We assessed the contribution of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG-PET) imaging for this purpose.

METHODS

FDG-PET were performed in 40 clinic patients with prion disease. FDG-PET images were projected onto latent factors generated in an external dataset to yield patient-specific eigenvalues. Eigenvalues were input into a clustering algorithm to generate data-driven clusters, which were compared by survival time.

RESULTS

Median age at FDG-PET was 65.3 years (range 23-85). Median time from FDG-PET to death was 3.7 months (range 0.3-19.0). Four data-driven clusters were generated, termed "Neocortical" (n = 7), "Transitional" (n = 12), "Temporo-parietal" (n = 13), and "Deep nuclei" (n = 6). Deep nuclei and transitional clusters had a shorter survival time than the neocortical cluster. Subsequent analyses suggested that this difference was driven by greater hypometabolism of deep nuclei relative to neocortical areas. FDG-PET-patterns were not associated with demographic (age and sex) or clinical (CSF total-tau, 14-3-3) variables.

INTERPRETATION

Greater hypometabolism within deep nuclei relative to neocortical areas associated with more rapid decline in patients with prion disease and vice versa. FDG-PET informs large-scale network physiology and may inform the relationship between spreading pathology and survival in patients with prion disease. Future studies should consider whether FDG-PET may enrich multimodal prion disease prognostication models.

Genome wide association study of clinical duration and age at onset of sporadic CJD

Human prion diseases are rare, transmissible and often rapidly progressive dementias. The most common type, sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD), is highly variable in clinical duration and age at onset. Genetic determinants of late onset or slower progression might suggest new targets for research and therapeutics. We assembled and array genotyped sCJD cases diagnosed in life or at autopsy. Clinical duration (median:4, interquartile range (IQR):2.5-9 (months)) was available in 3,773 and age at onset (median:67, IQR:61-73 (years)) in 3,767 cases. Phenotypes were successfully transformed to approximate normal distributions allowing genome-wide analysis without statistical inflation. 53 SNPs achieved genome-wide significance for the clinical duration phenotype; all of which were located at chromosome 20 (top SNP rs1799990, pvalue = 3.45x10-36, beta = 0.34 for an additive model; rs1799990, pvalue = 9.92x10-67, beta = 0.84 for a heterozygous model). Fine mapping, conditional and expression analysis suggests that the well-known non-synonymous variant at codon 129 is the obvious outstanding genome-wide determinant of clinical duration. Pathway analysis and suggestive loci are described. No genome-wide significant SNP determinants of age at onset were found, but the HS6ST3 gene was significant (pvalue = 1.93 x 10-6) in a gene-based test. We found no evidence of genome-wide genetic correlation between case-control (disease risk factors) and case-only (determinants of phenotypes) studies. Relative to other common genetic variants, PRNP codon 129 is by far the outstanding modifier of CJD survival suggesting only modest or rare variant effects at other genetic loci.

Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and other prion diseases

Prion diseases share common clinical and pathological characteristics such as spongiform neuronal degeneration and deposition of an abnormal form of a host-derived protein, termed prion protein. The characteristic features of prion diseases are long incubation times, short clinical courses, extreme resistance of the transmissible agent to degradation and lack of nucleic acid involvement. Sporadic and genetic forms of prion diseases occur worldwide, of which genetic forms are associated with mutations in PRNP. Human to human transmission of these diseases has occurred due to iatrogenic exposure, and zoonotic forms of prion diseases are linked to bovine disease. Significant progress has been made in the diagnosis of these disorders. Clinical tools for diagnosis comprise brain imaging and cerebrospinal fluid tests. Aggregation assays for detection of the abnormally folded prion protein have a clear potential to diagnose the disease in peripherally accessible biofluids. After decades of therapeutic nihilism, new treatment strategies and clinical trials are on the horizon. Although prion diseases are relatively rare disorders, understanding their pathogenesis and mechanisms of prion protein misfolding has significantly enhanced the field in research of neurodegenerative diseases.

Diagnostic and prognostic value of cerebrospinal fluid SNAP-25 and neurogranin in Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in a clinical setting cohort of rapidly progressive dementias

BACKGROUND

The levels of synaptic markers synaptosomal-associated protein 25 (SNAP-25) and neurogranin (Ng) have been shown to increase early in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of patients with Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) and to have prognostic potential. However, no validation studies assessed these biomarkers' diagnostic and prognostic value in a large clinical setting cohort of rapidly progressive dementia.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, using commercially available immunoassays, we measured the levels of SNAP-25, Ng, 14-3-3, total-tau (t-tau), neurofilament light chain (NfL), and phospho-tau181 (p-tau) in CSF samples from consecutive patients with CJD (n = 220) or non-prion rapidly progressive dementia (np-RPD) (n = 213). We evaluated and compared the diagnostic accuracy of each CSF biomarker and biomarker combination by receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) analyses, studied SNAP-25 and Ng CSF concentrations distribution across CJD subtypes, and estimated their association with survival using multivariable Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

CSF SNAP-25 and Ng levels were higher in CJD than in np-RPD (SNAP-25: 582, 95% CI 240-1250 vs. 115, 95% CI 78-157 pg/ml, p < 0.0001; Ng: 841, 95% CI 411-1473 vs. 390, 95% CI 260-766 pg/ml, p < 0.001). SNAP-25 diagnostic accuracy (AUC 0.902, 95% CI 0.873-0.931) exceeded that of 14-3-3 (AUC 0.853, 95% CI 0.816-0.889), t-tau (AUC 0.878, 95% CI 0.845-0.901), and the t-tau/p-tau ratio (AUC 0.884, 95% CI 0.851-0.916). In contrast, Ng performed worse (AUC 0.697, 95% CI 0.626-0.767) than all other surrogate biomarkers, except for NfL (AUC 0.649, 95% CI 0.593-0.705). SNAP-25 maintained a relatively high diagnostic value even for atypical CJD subtypes (AUC 0.792, 95% CI 0.729-0.854). In Cox regression analyses, SNAP-25 levels were significantly associated with survival in CJD (hazard ratio [HR] 1.71 95% CI 1.40-2.09). Conversely, Ng was associated with survival only in the most rapidly progressive CJD subtypes (sCJD MM(V)1 and gCJD M1) (HR 1.81 95% CI 1.21-2.93).

CONCLUSIONS

In the clinical setting, CSF SNAP-25 is a viable alternative to t-tau, 14-3-3, and the t-tau/p-tau ratio in discriminating the CJD subtypes from other RPDs. Additionally, SNAP-25 and, to a lesser extent, Ng predict survival in CJD, showing prognostic power in the range of CSF t-tau/14-3-3 and NfL, respectively.

Human prion disease: molecular pathogenesis, and possible therapeutic targets and strategies

INTRODUCTION

Human prion diseases are heterogeneous, and often rapidly progressive, transmissible neurodegenerative disorders associated with misfolded prion protein (PrP) aggregation and self-propagation. Despite their rarity, prion diseases comprise a broad spectrum of phenotypic variants determined at the molecular level by different conformers of misfolded PrP and host genotype variability. Moreover, they uniquely occur in idiopathic, genetically determined, and acquired forms with distinct etiologies.

AREA COVERED

This review provides an up-to-date overview of potential therapeutic targets in prion diseases and the main results obtained in cell and animal models and human trials. The open issues and challenges associated with developing effective therapies and informative clinical trials are also discussed.

EXPERT OPINION

Currently tested therapeutic strategies target the cellular PrP to prevent the formation of misfolded PrP or to favor its elimination. Among them, passive immunization and gene therapy with antisense oligonucleotides against prion protein mRNA are the most promising. However, the disease's rarity, heterogeneity, and rapid progression profoundly frustrate the successful undertaking of well-powered therapeutic trials and patient identification in the asymptomatic or early stage before the development of significant brain damage. Thus, the most promising therapeutic goal to date is preventing or delaying phenoconversion in carriers of pathogenic mutations by lowering prion protein expression.