On the role of aging in cancer incidence: an interpretation of the prostate cancer anomaly with implications for routine screening

Cross-sectional age-incidence patterns for the common male and female cancers in Connecticut were normalized to describe the percentage of total incidence that occurred at each age. The pattern for prostate cancer was atypical--less than the 99% confidence limit from the mean at ages less than 60 and greater than the 99% confidence limit from the mean at ages greater than 75. The available international data on latent carcinoma of the prostate, when normalized as above, resembled the mean male and female cancer patterns in Connecticut and suggested that the atypical behavior of clinical prostate cancer was the result of a lag between the incidence of latent carcinoma and promotion to clinical disease. Confirmation of this suggestion, with the potential to distinguish epidemiologically those latent carcinomas that remain asymptomatic from those that progress to malignancy, awaits routine screening for the latent carcinoma.