Estimated Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score: An Automated Decision Aid for Statin Therapy

Optimization of time interval for the measurement of plasma lipids for cardiovascular disease risk assessment

BACKGROUND

Lipid testing for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk is often performed every 4-6 years, but we hypothesized that the optimum time interval may vary depending on baseline risk.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Using lipid values and other risk factors from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (n = 9,704), we calculated a 10-year risk score with the pooled-cohort equations. Future risk scores were predicted by increasing age and projecting systolic blood pressure (SBP) and lipid changes, using the mean-percentile age group change in NHANES for SBP (n = 17,329) and the Lifelines Cohort study for lipids (n = 133,540). The crossing of high and intermediate-risk thresholds were calculated by time to determine optimum intervals for lipid testing.

RESULTS

Time to crossing risk thresholds depends on baseline risk, but the mean increase in the risk score plateaus at 1% per year for those with a baseline 10-year risk greater than 15%. Based on these findings, we recommend the following maximum time intervals for lipid testing: baseline risk < 15%: 5-years, 16%: 4-years, 17%: 3-years, 18%: 2-years, and 19%: ≤1-year.

CONCLUSIONS

Testing patients for lipids who have a higher baseline risk more often could identify high-risk patients sooner, allowing for earlier and more effective therapeutic intervention.

QRISK3 underestimates the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with COPD

BACKGROUND

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The extent to which the excess CVD risk is captured by risk factors in QRISK, a widely used CVD risk scoring tool, is not well studied.

METHODS

We created an incidence cohort of diagnosed COPD patients from the United Kingdom (UK) Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database (January 1998-July 2018). The outcome was a composite of fatal or non-fatal CVD events. Sex-specific age-standardised incidence ratios (SIR) were compared with values for the UK primary-care population. The observed 10-year CVD risk was derived using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and was compared with predicted 10-year risk from the QRISK3 tool.

RESULTS

13 208 patients (mean age 64.9 years, 45% women) were included. CVD incidence was 3.53 events per 100 person-years. The SIR of CVD was 1.71 (95% CI 1.61 to 1.75) in women and 1.62 (95%CI 1.54-1.64) in men. SIR was particularly high among patients younger than 65 years (women=2.13 (95% CI 1.94 to 2.19); men=1.86 (95% CI 1.74 to 1.90)). On average, the observed 10-year risk was 52% higher than QRISK predicted score (33.5% vs 22.1%). The difference was higher in patients younger than 65 years (observed risk 82% higher than predicted).

CONCLUSION

People living with COPD are at a significantly heightened risk of CVD over and beyond their predicted risk. This is particularly the case for younger people whose 10-year CVD risk can be >80% higher than predicted. Risk scoring tools must be validated and revised to provide accurate CVD predictions in patients with COPD.

Estimated risk of cardiovascular events and long-term complications: The projected future of diabetes patients in Delhi from the DEDICOM-II survey

PROBLEM

Despite high prevalence and ethnic susceptibility, limited published estimates are available on long term complication risks among known diabetes patients in India. Hence, we undertook evaluation of the cardiovascular risk of known diabetes patients from Delhi.

METHODS

The community-survey was conducted using a probability-proportionate-to-size(systematic) 2-stage cluster design. Thirty areas were selected for a house-to-house survey to recruit 25 to 30 subjects (known diabetes ≥1 year; 35-65 years of age) per area. Scores from the UKPDS 2.1, UKPDS 2.0, Framingham, ASCVD, WHO, NHS and SCORE studies were used for 10-year risk calculation.

RESULTS

We enrolled 843 subjects of which 800 consented for blood sampling. The mean age of the subjects was 53.0(52.1-54.0) years, the mean duration since diagnosis was 7.1(6.7-7.5) years, with 49.8 % women. 61.8 % were hypertensive, 81.5 % were dyslipidaemic and 53.3 % had poor glycaemic control. Although variable, risk engines estimates were consensual in projecting a high ten-year Coronary-Heart-Disease risk of 10-16 %, a stroke risk of 3.7-5.0 %, and a 5.0-5.7% risk of cardiovascular fatality. These risks were 1.5-3 times the 'risk at target levels' suggesting mitigability. Only 9.3 %, 16.0 %, and 30.0 % were taking aspirin, lipid lowering drugs and antihypertensives respectively.

CONCLUSION

The study highlights the impending impact of, and the scope for improvement in the cardiovascular risk profile of diabetes patients in Delhi, including the use of cardioprotective medications. It strengthens the case for developing and testing potential interventions for improvement.

Trends in the prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk and the control of its risk factors Among US adults, 2001-2020

Background

An accurate assessment of current trends in cardiovascular risks could inform public health policy. This study aims to determine 20-year trends in the prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk and its risk factors' control among US adults.

Methods

In this serial cross-sectional analysis of 23,594 adults, aged 40-79 years, without clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2001 to 2020, we calculated the prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk (10-year ASCVD risk ≥ 7.5%) for all participants and subgroups with their risk factors controlled for diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidemia.

Results

The age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk slightly decreased from 41.5% (95% CI, 39.7-43.3%) in 2001-2004 to 38.6% (95% CI, 36.1-41.1%) in 2017-2020 (P for trend = 0.169) while the respective sex-adjusted prevalence significantly increased from 34.4% (95% CI, 32.8-36.0%) to 39.5% (95% CI, 37.0-42.0%; P for trend <0.001). Sex and race continued to show disparities in cardiovascular risk. Furthermore, a worsening disparity in age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk between young and old and a narrowing gap among different education and poverty index levels (all P trend for interaction <0.05). Differential decomposition analysis found that demographic changes (primarily population aging) led to an 8.8% increase in the prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk from 2001 to 2004 to 2017-2020, while risk factor control led to a 3.8% decrease. The rate of individuals receiving treatment for diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidemia increased significantly between 2001 and 2020 (all P for trend <0.05). The rate of participants with hypertension who achieved blood pressure under 130/80 mmHg and those with dyslipidemia who achieved a non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level under 130 mg/dl increased significantly (all P for trend <0.001).

Conclusions

There is a slight reduction in the prevalence of age- and sex-adjusted elevated cardiovascular risk among US adults without clinical ASCVD between 2001 and 2020, while the sex-adjusted prevalence significantly increased. The decrease in elevated cardiovascular risk prevalence was mainly attributed to risk factor control, while demographic changes contributed to an increase.