SCORE performance in Central and Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union: MONICA and HAPIEE results

SCORE and SCORE2 in East Asian Population: A Performance Comparison

Background

Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) and SCORE2-Older Persons (OP) models have been proposed as new cardiovascular risk evaluation tools.

Objectives

This study evaluated the performance of SCORE/SCORE-OP and SCORE2/SCORE2-OP in the East Asian population by using population-based cohort data from the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) Health Screening Cohort of Korea.

Methods

A total of 324,384 NHIS examinees from 2004 to 2005 were divided into 5 age groups: 40-49 years, 50-59 years, 60-69 years,70-79 years, and more than 80 years. The examinees had their predicted cardiovascular disease risks calculated by using SCORE, SCORE2, SCORE-OP, and SCORE2-OP models. The low-risk model was applied on the basis of the cohort's observed event rates. The observed and predicted cardiovascular risks were compared.

Results

A total of 324,384 subjects were included (mean age 51.4 ± 7.3 years; women, 37.9% for the SCORE/SCORE2 group and mean age 73.0 ± 2.8 years; women, 47.5% for the SCORE/SCORE2-OP group). Over a median follow-up of 9 years, cardiovascular events occurred in 15.0% and 28.9% in SCORE/SCORE2 and SCORE/SCORE2-OP groups, respectively. The SCORE/SCORE-OP model underestimated cardiovascular disease risk in young men (aged 40-49 years) and women (aged 40-59 years) and overestimated it in older age groups. In contrast, SCORE2/SCORE2-OP invariably overestimated the risk in all age groups and sexes. SCORE2/SCORE2-OP showed no improvement in Harrell's concordance index (C-index) compared with SCORE/SCORE-OP. Calibration plots favored SCORE2 over SCORE but not SCORE2-OP over SCORE-OP.

Conclusions

Both SCORE2/SCORE2-OP and SCORE/SCORE-OP overestimated cardiovascular disease risk with low performance. SCORE2/SCORE2-OP showed slight improvement over older versions, but modifications are necessary for the East Asian population.

Can spirometry improve the performance of cardiovascular risk model in high-risk Eastern European countries?

Aims

Impaired lung function has been strongly associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. We aimed to assess the additive prognostic value of spirometry indices to the risk estimation of CVD events in Eastern European populations in this study.

Methods

We randomly selected 14,061 individuals with a mean age of 59 ± 7.3 years without a previous history of cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases from population registers in the Czechia, Poland, and Lithuania. Predictive values of standardised Z-scores of forced expiratory volume measured in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and FEV1 divided by height cubed (FEV1/ht3) were tested. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of CVD events of various spirometry indices over the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) model. The model performance was evaluated using Harrell's C-statistics, likelihood ratio tests, and Bayesian information criterion.

Results

All spirometry indices had a strong linear relation with the incidence of CVD events (HR ranged from 1.10 to 1.12 between indices). The model stratified by FEV1/ht3 tertiles had a stronger link with CVD events than FEV1 and FVC. The risk of CVD event for the lowest vs. highest FEV1/ht3 tertile among people with low FRS was higher (HR: 2.35; 95% confidence interval: 1.96-2.81) than among those with high FRS. The addition of spirometry indices showed a small but statistically significant improvement of the FRS model.

Conclusions

The addition of spirometry indices might improve the prediction of incident CVD events particularly in the low-risk group. FEV1/ht3 is a more sensitive predictor compared to other spirometry indices.

Socioeconomic Deprivation: An Important, Largely Unrecognized Risk Factor in Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease

Background:

Socioeconomic deprivation is associated with higher cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Whether deprivation status should be incorporated in more cardiovascular risk estimation scores remains unclear. This study evaluates how socioeconomic deprivation status affects the performance of 3 primary prevention cardiovascular risk scores.

Methods:

The Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study was used to evaluate the performance of 3 cardiovascular risk scores with (ASSIGN [Assessing cardiovascular risk using SIGN (Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network) guidelines to ASSIGN preventive treatment]) and without (SCORE2 [Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 algorithm], Pooled Cohort Equations) socioeconomic deprivation as a covariate in the risk prediction model. Deprivation was defined by Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation score. The predicted 10-year risk was evaluated against the observed event rate for the cardiovascular outcome of each risk score. The comparison was made across 3 groups defined by the deprivation index score consisting of group 1 defined as most deprived, group 3 defined as least deprived, and group 2, which consisted of individuals in the middle deprivation categories.

Results:

The study population consisted of 15 506 individuals (60.0% female, median age of 51). Across the population, 1808 (12%) individuals were assigned to group 1 (most deprived), 8119 (52%) to group 2, and 4708 (30%) to group 3 (least deprived), and 871 (6%) individuals had a missing deprivation score. Risk scores based on models that did not include deprivation status significantly under predicted risk in the most deprived (6.43% observed versus 4.63% predicted for SCORE2 [P=0.001] and 6.69% observed versus 4.66% predicted for Pooled Cohort Equations [P<0.001]). Both risk scores also significantly overpredicted the risk in the least deprived group (3.97% observed versus 4.72% predicted for SCORE2 [P=0.007] and 4.22% observed versus 4.85% predicted for Pooled Cohort Equations [P=0.028]). In contrast, no significant difference was demonstrated in the observed versus predicted risk when using the ASSIGN risk score, which included socioeconomic deprivation status in the risk model.

Conclusions:

Socioeconomic status is a largely unrecognized risk factor in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Risk scores that exclude socioeconomic deprivation as a covariate under- and overestimate the risk in the most and least deprived individuals, respectively. This study highlights the importance of incorporating socioeconomic deprivation status in risk estimation systems to ultimately reduce inequalities in health care provision for cardiovascular disease.

Do the 2017 blood pressure cut-offs improve 10-year cardiovascular disease mortality risk prediction?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

High blood pressure (BP) is a significant predictor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline reclassified the BP categories; however, its impact on CVD mortality prediction is still unclear. Our study aimed to examine whether the application of new BP cut-offs could improve 10-year CVD mortality prediction among US adults.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This population-based cohort study linked data from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994 and 1999-2004) and National Death Index (up to December 31, 2015). We constructed original and modified, using new BP cut-offs, Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation models to predict 10-year CVD mortality. We measured model discrimination and calibration using the Harrell's C statistic and calibration plots, respectively. We calculated the net reclassification index to evaluate the reclassification. In addition, we compared the sensitivity, specificity, predictive values (PVs), and likelihood ratios (LRs). Among 28,964 adults (aged ≥ 20 years), 1493 have died of CVD within ten years of follow-up. The modified models had improvements in calibration and reclassification instead of discrimination compared to the original models. The modified models have higher sensitivity and negative PV; however, they have lower specificity, positive PV, positive LR, and negative LR.

CONCLUSIONS

The modified models failed to improve the discrimination of 10-year CVD mortality. However, they could increase the calibration and reclassification and capture more participants with high CVD risk. More studies are needed on the potential use of the new BP cut-offs in the CVD primary prevention.

The Severity of Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Adults Over a Five-Year Interval

Purpose

The aim of this study was to analyze the severity of changes in cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, overweight and obesity, carbohydrate metabolism disorders, burdened family history) and to assess the risk of a cardiovascular incident according to the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm in the same group of patients over a five-year interval.

Patients and Methods

The research method was analysis of medical records of patients from the area of West Pomeranian Province, Poland, included in the Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Program of the National Health Fund five years after the first examination (2012/2013 vs 2017/2018). We collected data on changes in the levels of selected cardiovascular risk factors over five years and calculated the SCORE values.

Results

In the second measurement (after five years), the odds of obesity were about 2.5 times higher. The repeated BMI measurement showed that after five years more respondents were classified as overweight and obese compared with the first measurement (p = 0.000; η² = 0.056). The repeated SCORE measurement indicated that after five years the SCORE values significantly increased compared with the first measurement (p = 0.000; η² = 0.588). Statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) were also found between the first and the second measurements of arm circumference, waist circumference, BMI, diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, and triglycerides. The risk of visceral obesity was statistically significantly higher for men than for women (R_HM = 1.47).

Conclusion

In the group of patients examined twice over five years, the incidence of obesity, including abdominal obesity, significantly increased. Furthermore, five years after the last examination, the risk of a cardiovascular incident significantly increased. The participants had higher values of such parameters as: arm circumference, waist circumference, BMI, diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, and triglycerides.

Development and validation of two SCORE-based cardiovascular risk prediction models for Eastern Europe: a multicohort study

AIMS

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models are used in Western European countries, but less so in Eastern European countries where rates of CVD can be two to four times higher. We recalibrated the SCORE prediction model for three Eastern European countries and evaluated the impact of adding seven behavioural and psychosocial risk factors to the model.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We developed and validated models using data from the prospective HAPIEE cohort study with 14 598 participants from Russia, Poland, and the Czech Republic (derivation cohort, median follow-up 7.2 years, 338 fatal CVD cases) and Estonian Biobank data with 4632 participants (validation cohort, median follow-up 8.3 years, 91 fatal CVD cases). The first model (recalibrated SCORE) used the same risk factors as in the SCORE model. The second model (HAPIEE SCORE) added education, employment, marital status, depression, body mass index, physical inactivity, and antihypertensive use. Discrimination of the original SCORE model (C-statistic 0.78 in the derivation and 0.83 in the validation cohorts) was improved in recalibrated SCORE (0.82 and 0.85) and HAPIEE SCORE (0.84 and 0.87) models. After dichotomizing risk at the clinically meaningful threshold of 5%, and when comparing the final HAPIEE SCORE model against the original SCORE model, the net reclassification improvement was 0.07 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02-0.11] in the derivation cohort and 0.14 (95% CI 0.04-0.25) in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

Our recalibrated SCORE may be more appropriate than the conventional SCORE for some Eastern European populations. The addition of seven quick, non-invasive, and cheap predictors further improved prediction accuracy.

A 10- and 15-year performance analysis of ESC/EAS and ACC/AHA cardiovascular risk scores in a Southern European cohort

Background

A key strategy for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the use of risk prediction algorithms. We aimed to investigate the predictive ability of SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Estimation) and PCE (Pooled Cohort Equations) systems for atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk in Portugal, a low CVD risk country, at the 10-year landmark and at a longer, 15-year follow-up.

Methods

The SCORE and PCE 10-year risk estimates were calculated for 455 and 448 patients, respectively. Discrimination was assessed by Harrell’s C-statistic. Calibration was analyzed by standardized incidence ratios (SIR).

Results

During the 10-year follow-up, 7 fatal ASCVD events (the SCORE outcome) and 32 any ASCVD events (the PCE outcome) occurred. The SCORE system showed good discrimination (C-statistic 0.83), while the PCE showed poor discrimination (C-statistic 0.62). Calibration was similar for both systems, according to SIR: SCORE, 0.3 (95% CI 0.1–0.7); PCE, 0.5 (95% CI 0.4–0.7). Globally, both 10-year fatal ASCVD risk and any ASCVD risk were overestimated in the overall population and men. However, the risk was underestimated by both systems in women. Despite an overestimation of 15-year fatal ASCVD by SCORE, the 15-year any ASCVD observed incidence was 1.8 times the 10-year incidence among men and 1.4 times among women. This acceleration of CVD risk was more relevant in the lowest classes of ASCVD risk.

Conclusion

In this prospective, contemporary, Portuguese cohort, the SCORE had better discriminatory power and similar calibration compared to PCE. However, both risk scores underestimated 10-year ASCVD risk in women.

Estimating the performance of three cardiovascular disease risk scores: the Estonian Biobank cohort study

BACKGROUND

We aim to investigate the predictive ability of PCE (Pooled Cohort Equations), QRISK2 and SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Estimation) scoring systems for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk prediction in Estonia, a country with one of the highest ASCVD event rates in Europe.

METHODS

Seven-year risk estimates were calculated in risk score-specific subsets of the Estonian Biobank cohort. Calibration was assessed by standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) and discrimination by Harrell's C-statistics. In addition, a head-to-head comparison of the scores was performed in the intersection of the three score-specific subcohorts.

RESULTS

PCE, QRISK2 and SCORE risk estimates were calculated for 4356, 7191 and 3987 eligible individuals, respectively. During the 7-year follow-up, 220 hard ASCVD events (PCE outcome), 671 ASCVD events (QRISK2 outcome) and 94 ASCVD deaths (SCORE outcome) occurred among the score-specific subsets of the cohort. While PCE (SIR 1.03, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.18) and SCORE (SIR 0.99, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.21) were calibrated well for the cohort, QRISK2 underestimated the risk by 48% (SIR 0.52, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.56). In terms of discrimination, PCE (C-statistic 0.778) was inferior to QRISK2 (C-statistic 0.812) and SCORE (C-statistic 0.865). All three risk scores performed at similar level in the head-to-head comparison.

CONCLUSION

Of three widely used ASCVD risk scores, PCE and SCORE performed at acceptable level, while QRISK2 underestimated ASCVD risk markedly. These results highlight the need for evaluating the accuracy of ASCVD risk scores prior to use in high-risk populations.

Cardiovascular risk assessment of dyslipidemic middle-aged adults without overt cardiovascular disease over the period of 2009-2016 in Lithuania

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular mortality in Lithuania is extremely high and abnormal lipid levels are very common among Lithuanian adults. Dyslipidemia is one of the main independent risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) leading to high absolute CVD risk. The aim of this study was to assess CVD risk in dyslipidemic middle-aged subjects.

METHODS

During the period of 2009-2016 a total of 92,373 people (58.4% women and 41.6% men) were evaluated. This study included men aged 40-54 and women aged 50-64 without overt CVD.

RESULTS

Any type of dyslipidemia was present in 89.7% of all study population. 7.5% of dyslipidemic patients did not have any other conventional risk factors. Three and more risk factors were detected in 60.1% of dyslipidemic subjects. All analyzed risk factors, except smoking, were more common in dyslipidemic adults compared to subjects without dyslipidemia: arterial hypertension (55.8% vs. 43.3%, p < 0.001), diabetes (11.1% vs. 7.3%, p < 0.001), abdominal obesity (45.3% vs. 30.2%, p < 0.001), BMI ≥30 kg/m2 (35.8% vs. 23.7%, p < 0.001), metabolic syndrome (34.0% vs. 9.2%, p < 0.001), family history of coronary heart disease (26.3% vs. 23.1%, p < 0.001), unbalanced diet (62.5% vs. 52.9%, p < 0.001) and insufficient physical activity (52.0% vs. 44.2%, p < 0.001). The prevalence of all evaluated risk factors, except smoking, increased with age. Average SCORE index was 1.87 in all study population, while dyslipidemic subjects had higher SCORE compared to control group (1.95 vs 1.20, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Almost two thirds of dyslipidemic middle-aged Lithuanian adults without overt cardiovascular disease had three or more other CVD risk factors, which synergistically increase absolute risk of CVD. The average 10-year risk of CVD death in patients with dyslipidemia was 1.95%. The importance of managing dyslipidemia as well as other risk factors in order to reduce burden of cardiovascular disease in Lithuania is evident.

Comparing the Consistency and Performance of Various Coronary Heart Disease Prediction Models for Primary Prevention Using a National Representative Cohort in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Predicting future coronary artery disease (CAD) risk by model-based approaches can facilitate identification of high-risk individuals for prevention and management. Therefore, we compared the consistency and performance of various CAD models for primary prevention using 1 external validation dataset from a national representative cohort in Taiwan.Methods and Results:The 10 CAD prediction models were assessed in a validation cohort of 3559 participants (≥35 years old, 53.5% women) from a Taiwanese national representative cohort that was followed up for a median 9.70 (interquartile range, 9.63-9.74) years; 63 cases were documented as developing CAD events. The overall κ value was 0.51 for all 10 models, with a higher value for women than for men (0.53 for women, 0.40 for men). In addition, the areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves ranged from 0.804 (95% confidence interval, 0.758-0.851) to 0.847 (95% confidence interval, 0.805-0.889). All non-significant chi-square values indicated good calibration ability.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated these 10 CAD prediction models for primary prevention were feasible and validated for use in Taiwanese subjects. Further studies of screening and management are warranted.

Traditional Risk Factors of Acute Coronary Syndrome in Four Different Male Populations – Total Cholesterol Value Does Not Seem To Be Relevant Risk Factor

Cardiovascular diseases are the most common cause of mortality and morbidity in most populations. As the traditional modifiable risk factors (smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, and obesity) were defined decades ago, we decided to analyze recent data in patients who survived acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The Czech part of the study included data from 999 males, and compared them with the post-MONICA study (1,259 males, representing general population). The Lithuanian study included 479 male patients and 456 age-matched controls. The Kazakhstan part included 232 patients and 413 controls. In two countries, the most robust ACS risk factor was smoking (OR 3.85 in the Czech study and 5.76 in the Lithuanian study), followed by diabetes (OR 2.26 and 2.07) and hypertension (moderate risk elevation with OR 1.43 and 1.49). These factors did not influence the ACS risk in Kazakhstan. BMI had no significant effect on ACS and plasma cholesterol was surprisingly significantly lower (P<0.001) in patients than in controls in all countries (4.80±1.11 vs. 5.76±1.06 mmol/l in Czechs; 5.32±1.32 vs. 5.71±1.08 mmol/l in Lithuanians; 4.88±1.05 vs. 5.38±1.13 mmol/l in Kazakhs/Russians). Results from our study indicate substantial heterogeneity regarding major CVD risk factors in different populations with the exception of plasma total cholesterol which was inversely associated with ACS risk in all involved groups. These data reflect ethnical and geographical differences as well as changing pattern of cardiovascular risk profiles.

Cardiovascular burden and percutaneous interventions in Russian Federation: systematic epidemiological update

The situation with cardiovascular (CV) burden in Russian population is alerting, and becomes of interest due to high CV mortality, and shorter lifespan if compare with the Western society amid the absence of the established monitoring or screening system for major CV risk factors. The purpose of this systematic epidemiological update was to explore CV burden in Russia. The study represents pooled results with a systematic epidemiological review of the national mass screening, selected randomized clinical trials and statistical datasets of the national public health CV institutions exploring the trends of the CV burden in all 83 regions of Russia. We overviewed data from a number of the available Russian-speaking national data sources of 2001-2014, and NANOM-FIM trial (NCT01270139) as the only available real-world population study. The CV diseases in Russia accounted for 54.9% of all deaths in 2011-2014. The death rate was 13.3 per 1,000 citizens with CV mortality of 653.9 per 100,000. The life expectancy achieves 64.3 years for male and 76.1 years for female. The mean age of pts in trial was 51.6 years (77.2% males). A total of 175 Russian PCI centers implemented 205,902 angio a year, and 75,378 PCI achieving 531 PCI per 1,000,000 with placement of 101,451 stents (1.37 stents per PCI; 48,057 DES). The smoking (17.3% of screened with a 2,786 cigarettes a year; 70.6% in trial), excessive alcohol consumption (1.8% of screened with a 11.6 L per year; 50.6% in trial), unhealthy Russian diet (abundance of carbohydrates/sugar, saturated and trans fats in 24.3% of screened), psychosocial factors (20%) and physical inactivity (19.6% of screened) remain the major modifiable risk factors. They, in turn, affect such risk factors as dyslipidemia (86.7% in trial), obesity (16.7% of screened; BMI in trial was 28.4), and hypertension (40.8% suffered; 86.1% in trial). CV mortality was not directly associated with a level of poverty (r=0.26, P=0.02) or socio-economic development (P>0.05) in regions. The documented 27% 10-year decline of CV mortality was interpreted as a success of the national policy. Mortality statistics show the stark reality of a high CV burden in Russia. New national program and aggressive emerging efforts are required to tackle CV diseases in Russia.

The high-density lipoprotein-adjusted SCORE model worsens SCORE-based risk classification in a contemporary population of 30,824 Europeans: the Copenhagen General Population Study

Aims

Recent European guidelines recommend to include high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol in risk assessment for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), using a SCORE-based risk model (SCORE-HDL). We compared the predictive performance of SCORE-HDL with SCORE in an independent, contemporary, ‘low-risk’ European population, focusing on ability to identify those in need of intensified CVD prevention.

Methods and results

Between 2003 and 2008, 46 092 individuals without CVD, diabetes, or statin use were enrolled in the Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS). During a mean of 6.8 years of follow-up, 339 individuals died of CVD. In the SCORE target population (age 40–65; n = 30 824), fewer individuals were at baseline categorized as high risk (≥5% 10-year risk of fatal CVD) using SCORE-HDL compared with SCORE (10 vs. 17% in men, 1 vs. 3% in women). SCORE-HDL did not improve discrimination of future fatal CVD, compared with SCORE, but decreased the detection rate (sensitivity) of the 5% high-risk threshold from 42 to 26%, yielding a negative net reclassification index (NRI) of −12%. Importantly, using SCORE-HDL, the sensitivity was zero among women. Both SCORE and SCORE-HDL overestimated risk of fatal CVD. In well-calibrated models developed from the CGPS, HDL did not improve discrimination or NRI. Lowering the decision threshold from 5 to 1% led to progressive gain in NRI for both CVD mortality and morbidity.

Conclusion

SCORE-HDL did not improve discrimination compared with SCORE, but deteriorated risk classification based on NRI. Future guidelines should consider lower decision thresholds and prioritize CVD morbidity and people above age 65.

Inclusion of hazardous drinking does not improve the SCORE performance in men from Central and Eastern Europe: the findings from the HAPIEE cohorts

Background

The SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation) scale uses conventional risk factors for the prediction of the 10-year risk of fatal atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD). The high-risk version of SCORE is recommended by the European Society of Cardiology for use in the populations of Central and Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union (CEE/FSU). Given the role of hazardous alcohol consumption as an important determinant of CVD mortality in CEE/FSU men, this study investigated whether adding hazardous drinking characteristics to the high-risk SCORE improves its prognostic performance in contemporary population-based male CEE/FSU cohorts.

Methods

The HAPIEE (Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial factors In Eastern Europe) study follows Czech (seven towns), Polish (Krakow), and Russian (Novosibirsk) cohorts from 2002–2005. In HAPIEE men (n = 8,927), 264 atherosclerotic cardiovascular deaths were registered over the median follow-up time of 6.2-8.1 years.

Results

In HAPIEE men, the baseline levels of the high-risk SCORE ≥5% significantly predicted fatal CVD. After controlling for the high-risk SCORE, binge drinking (drinking ≥100 g of ethanol at least once a month) and problem drinking (≥2 positive answers to CAGE questionnaire) were inconsistently associated with fatal CVD. No marked improvement in calibration and discrimination was observed for the high-risk SCORE extended by these hazardous drinking indicators, and all values of integrated discrimination improvement were <0.5%.

Conclusions

Extending the high-risk SCORE by hazardous drinking parameters failed to improve its prognostic performance across male CEE/FSU population samples. Our findings tentatively support the use of the original high-risk SCORE in male CEE/FSU populations. More research is needed on the potential use of hazardous drinking in cardiovascular risk prediction.

Recalibration of the SCORE risk chart for the Russian population

Persisting high levels of cardiovascular mortality in Russia present a specific case among developed countries. Application of cardiovascular risk prediction models holds great potential for primary prevention in this country. Using a unique set of cohort follow-up data from Moscow and Saint Petersburg, this study aims to test and recalibrate the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) methods for predicting CVD mortality risks in the general population. The study is based on pooled epidemiological cohort data covering the period 1975-2001. The algorithms from the SCORE project were used for the calibration of the SCORE equation for the Moscow and St. Petersburg populations (SCORE-MoSP). Age-specific 10-year cumulative cardiovascular mortality rates were estimated according to the original SCORE-High and SCORE-Low equations and compared to the estimates based on the recalibrated SCORE-MoSP model and observed CVD mortality rates. Ten-year risk prediction charts for CVD mortality were derived and compared using conventional SCORE-High and recalibrated SCORE-MoSP methods. The original SCORE-High model tends to substantially under-estimate 10-year cardiovascular mortality risk for females. The SCORE-MoSP model provided better results which were closer to the observed rates. For males, both the SCORE-High and SCORE-MoSP provided similar estimates which tend to under-estimate CVD mortality risk at younger ages. These differences are also reflected in the risk prediction charts. Using non-calibrated scoring models for Russia may lead to substantial under-estimation of cardiovascular mortality risk in some groups of individuals. Although the SCORE-MoSP provide better results for females, more complex scoring methods involving a wider range of risk factors are needed.

Does inclusion of education and marital status improve SCORE performance in central and eastern europe and former soviet union? findings from MONICA and HAPIEE cohorts

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The SCORE scale predicts the 10-year risk of fatal atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD), based on conventional risk factors. The high-risk version of SCORE is recommended for Central and Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union (CEE/FSU), due to high CVD mortality rates in these countries. Given the pronounced social gradient in cardiovascular mortality in the region, it is important to consider social factors in the CVD risk prediction. We investigated whether adding education and marital status to SCORE benefits its prognostic performance in two sets of population-based CEE/FSU cohorts.

METHODS

The WHO MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) cohorts from the Czech Republic, Poland (Warsaw and Tarnobrzeg), Lithuania (Kaunas), and Russia (Novosibirsk) were followed from the mid-1980s (577 atherosclerotic CVD deaths among 14,969 participants with non-missing data). The HAPIEE (Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial factors In Eastern Europe) study follows Czech, Polish (Krakow), and Russian (Novosibirsk) cohorts from 2002-05 (395 atherosclerotic CVD deaths in 19,900 individuals with non-missing data).

RESULTS

In MONICA and HAPIEE, the high-risk SCORE ≥5% at baseline strongly and significantly predicted fatal CVD both before and after adjustment for education and marital status. After controlling for SCORE, lower education and non-married status were significantly associated with CVD mortality in some samples. SCORE extension by these additional risk factors only slightly improved indices of calibration and discrimination (integrated discrimination improvement <5% in men and ≤1% in women).

CONCLUSION

Extending SCORE by education and marital status failed to substantially improve its prognostic performance in population-based CEE/FSU cohorts.