Less dementia and stroke in low-risk patients with atrial fibrillation taking oral anticoagulation

Dronedarone vs Sotalol Among Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: A Meta-Analysis of Retrospective Observational Databases

BACKGROUND

Dronedarone and sotalol are antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs) recommended in similar populations per atrial fibrillation (AF) guidelines; however, comparative safety data are limited.

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study was to assess the safety of dronedarone vs sotalol for treatment of AF in AAD-naive patients.

METHODS

This was a prespecified noninterventional meta-analysis of 4 retrospective observational cohort studies from 4 databases (Optum Clinformatics Data Mart, Merative MarketScan, Veterans Health Administration Electronic Health Record, and the Swedish National Patient Register) conducted by using one master protocol. Each analysis emulated the target trial using an active comparator (dronedarone vs sotalol), new user design with an as-treated approach. Primary outcomes were tested hierarchically for dronedarone vs sotalol: first for statistical significance of cardiovascular (CV) hospitalization, and then for statistical significance of ventricular arrhythmias. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used for confounding control, and negative control outcomes were used to assess residual confounding. Outcomes were evaluated by using Cox proportional hazards regression; meta-analysis was performed by using fixed effects models.

RESULTS

The dronedarone and sotalol cohorts were well balanced within databases before and after PSM (after PSM mean age range: 62.5-70.9 years; mean CHA2DS2-VASc score range: 1.81-3.15). Negative control outcomes exhibited little-to-no evidence of residual confounding. Meta-analysis found significantly lower rates of CV hospitalization (pooled HR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.85-0.97) and ventricular arrhythmias (pooled HR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.69-0.85) with dronedarone vs sotalol.

CONCLUSIONS

In this retrospective meta-analysis, dronedarone exhibited significantly lower rates of CV hospitalization and ventricular arrhythmias compared with sotalol. These findings provide real-world evidence to support selection of the most appropriate first-line AAD for rhythm control in patients with AF.

Edoxaban treatment in routine clinical practice is highly concordant with the 2020 European Society of Cardiology atrial fibrillation guidelines: results from the noninterventional Global ETNA-AF programme

Aims

The 2020 European Society of Cardiology (ESC)-atrial fibrillation (AF) guidelines recommend a risk-based approach to oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy in patients with AF; however, it is unknown if current practice aligns with these recommendations. This study assessed the associated effectiveness and safety of edoxaban in patients with AF according to the 2020 ESC-AF guidelines and the approved label in routine clinical care.

Methods and results

The Global ETNA-AF programme is a large prospective, noninterventional programme evaluating safety and effectiveness of edoxaban. Baseline characteristics and 2-year clinical event data were analysed in subgroups, defined by ESC-AF guidelines indication of OAC therapy according to CHA2DS2-VASc score [no OAC to be considered, OAC should be considered (2 for females/1 for males), and OAC recommended (≥3 for females/≥2 for males)] and modified HAS-BLED score [(≥3 (bleeding risk high) vs. <3 (bleeding risk low)]. Of 19 960 patients included, 16 912 (84.7%) were categorized as OAC recommended and 2501 (12.5%) as OAC should be considered; 547 (2.7%) were in the no OAC to be considered group. In the OAC recommended group, 12 006 (71.0%) had high bleeding risk. Clinical event rates were <5%/year across all risk groups, even in the OAC recommended and high bleeding risk groups. In the OAC recommended and high bleeding risk groups, patients had low ischaemic stroke and bleeding event rates, regardless of receiving the 30 or 60 mg dose.

Conclusion

This study demonstrated that edoxaban use in patients with AF largely aligns with 2020 ESC-AF guidelines, while maintaining low clinical event rates.

Registration

Europe (NCT02944019), Japan (UMIN000017011), and Korea/Taiwan (NCT02951039).

Factors associated with cognitive impairment in patients with atrial fibrillation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of cognitive impairment. Therefore, exploring factors which may be associated with cognitive impairment is important. Correspondingly, this study aimed to systematically evaluate factors associated with cognitive impairment in AF patients by synthesizing relevant evidence.

METHODS

A database search of the PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, CBM, CNKI, Wanfang, and VIP databases was conducted from inception until December 21, 2023. The effect size was expressed as a combined odds ratio (OR) and 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI). The heterogeneity was qualitatively analyzed by Cochran's Q test and quantified by the I2 statistic.

RESULTS

A total of 7,128 studies were identified from the 8 databases, and 39 studies of 3,491,423 participants were included. A meta-analysis was performed on 19 influencing factors. Advanced age (OR=1.38, 95 % CI: 1.11-1.71), female sex (OR=2.19, 95 % CI: 1.18-4.06), smoking (OR=2.44, 95 % CI: 1.24-4.80), hypertension (OR=1.61, 95 % CI: 1.27-2.03), diabetes (OR=1.42, 95 % CI: 1.20-1.67), and hearing impairment (OR=1.37, 95 % CI: 1.05-1.81) were risk factors for cognitive impairment. A higher education level (OR=0.57, 95 % CI: 0.46-0.72), oral anticoagulants (OR=0.61, 95 % CI: 0.48-0.78), novel oral anticoagulants (OR=0.63, 95 % CI: 0.54-0.73), warfarin (OR=0.55, 95 % CI: 0.39-0.79), novel oral anticoagulants relative to warfarin (OR=0.88, 95 % CI: 0.81-0.97), catheter ablation (OR=0.74, 95 % CI: 0.58-0.94) and exercise (OR=0.66, 95 % CI: 0.61-0.72) were protective factors for cognitive impairment.

CONCLUSIONS

Age, sex, education level, smoking, exercise, hypertension, diabetes, hearing impairment, anticoagulation therapy, and catheter ablation were associated with cognitive impairment in AF patients.

Could the Early Detection of Atrial Fibrillation Reduce the Risk of Developing Dementia?

Atrial fibrillation (AF) and dementia are major global public health issues and share common risk factors, especially after the age of 65 and regardless of the presence of stroke. Despite accounting for potential confounders, AF appears to be an independent risk factor for cognitive decline and dementia. The mechanisms are likely to be multifactorial and may include AF-related ischemic stroke, cerebral hypoperfusion, microbleeds, systemic inflammation, genetic factors, and small vessel disease, leading to brain atrophy and white matter damage. The early aggressive management of AF and comorbidities may reduce the risk of dementia. Indeed, the early detection of AF-related cognitive impairment should allow for the early implementation of measures to prevent the development of dementia, mainly through integrative approaches involving the correction of risk factors and maintenance of rhythm control. Well-designed prospective studies are needed to determine whether early detection and AF treatment can prevent dementia and identify whether optimal integrative measures are effective in preventing cognitive impairment and dementia.

Atrial fibrillation burden: a new outcome predictor and therapeutic target

Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia, is not a dichotomous disease trait. Technological innovations enable long-term rhythm monitoring in many patients and can estimate AF burden. These technologies are already used to detect and monitor AF. This review describes the relation between AF burden and outcomes and potential effects of AF burden reduction. A lower AF burden is associated with a lower risk of stroke and heart failure in patients with AF: stroke risk without anticoagulation is lower in patients with device-detected AF and a low AF burden (stroke rate 1%/year) than in patients with persistent and permanent AF (stroke rate 3%/year). Paroxysmal AF shows intermediate stroke rates (2%/year). Atrial fibrillation burden-reducing interventions can reduce cardiovascular outcomes in patients with AF: early rhythm control reduces cardiovascular events including stroke and heart failure in patients with recently diagnosed AF and cardiovascular conditions. In patients with heart failure and AF, early rhythm control and AF ablation, interventions that reduce AF burden, reduce mortality and heart failure events. Recent technological innovations allow to estimate AF burden in clinical care, creating opportunities and challenges. While evidence remains limited, the existing data already suggest that AF burden reduction could be a therapeutic goal. In addition to anticoagulation and treatment of cardiovascular conditions, AF burden reduction emerges as a therapeutic goal. Future research will define the AF burden that constitutes a relevant risk of stroke and heart failure. Technologies quantifying AF burden need careful validation to advance the field.

Thromboembolic events and vascular dementia in patients with atrial fibrillation and low apparent stroke risk

The prevention of thromboembolism in atrial fibrillation (AF) is typically restricted to patients with specific risk factors and ignores outcomes such as vascular dementia. This population-based cohort study used electronic healthcare records from 5,199,994 primary care patients (UK; 2005-2020). A total of 290,525 (5.6%) had a diagnosis of AF and were aged 40-75 years, of which 36,340 had no history of stroke, a low perceived risk of stroke based on clinical risk factors and no oral anticoagulant prescription. Matching was performed for age, sex and region to 117,298 controls without AF. During 5 years median follow-up (831,005 person-years), incident stroke occurred in 3.8% with AF versus 1.5% control (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 2.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.91-2.21; P < 0.001), arterial thromboembolism 0.3% versus 0.1% (HR 2.39, 95% CI 1.83-3.11; P < 0.001), and all-cause mortality 8.9% versus 5.0% (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.38-1.50; P < 0.001). AF was associated with all-cause dementia (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.04-1.32; P = 0.010), driven by vascular dementia (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.33-2.12; P < 0.001) rather than Alzheimer's disease (HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.70-1.03; P = 0.09). Death and thromboembolic outcomes, including vascular dementia, are substantially increased in patients with AF despite a lack of conventional stroke risk factors.

Population Dementia Incidence and Direct Oral Anticoagulant Use in a Representative Population With Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF), a risk factor of dementia, have been increasing over time. Oral anticoagulation reduces risk of stroke and other negative outcomes of AF and may reduce dementia health inequities. The objective of this study was to estimate dementia incidence in patients with newly-diagnosed AF and taking an anticoagulant as use of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) increased.

METHODS

We used a retrospective cohort design with annual incident AF cohorts of community-dwelling Medicare Fee-for-Service beneficiaries, enrolled in Parts A, B, and D from 2007 to 2017. The sample was limited to beneficiaries aged 67 years and older with incident AF; no prior dementia; and use of anticoagulants warfarin, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban, or edoxaban in year t.

RESULTS

A total of 1,083,338 beneficiaries were included in the study, 58.5% female, with mean (SD) age 77.2 (6.75) years. Among anticoagulated, incident AF cohorts, use of DOACs increased from 10.6% in their first year of availability (2011) to 41.4% in 2017. Among incident AF cohorts taking any oral anticoagulant, 3-year dementia incidence did not change significantly over the cohorts after adjusting for confounders. For example, incidence was 9.1% (95% CI 8.9-9.4) among White persons diagnosed with AF in 2007 and 2008 and 8.9% (95% CI 8.7-9.1) in 2017. Across cohorts, dementia incidence was consistently highest for Black persons, followed by American Indian/Alaska Native and White persons, and lowest for Asian persons. In 2017, 10.9% (95% CI 10.4-11.3) of Black persons in the cohort developed dementia within 3 years, 9.4% (95% CI 8.0-10.9) of American Indian/Alaska Native, 8.9% (95% CI 8.7-9.1) of White, 8.7% (95% CI 8.2-9.1) of Hispanic, and 6.9% (95% CI 6.4-7.4) of Asian persons. Across race/ethnicity, 3-year stroke risk decreased consistently over time; however, the increasing availability of DOACs did not alter the trend.

DISCUSSION

Increased use of DOACs among incident AF cohorts from 2007 to 2017 was not associated with significant declines in dementia or stroke risk. Consideration of similar stroke and dementia risk, as well as differences in cost, is warranted when weighing the risks and benefits of available oral anticoagulants.

Randomised controlled trial of population screening for atrial fibrillation in people aged 70 years and over to reduce stroke: protocol for the SAFER trial

INTRODUCTION

There is a lack of evidence that the benefits of screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) outweigh the harms. Following the completion of the Screening for Atrial Fibrillation with ECG to Reduce stroke (SAFER) pilot trial, the aim of the main SAFER trial is to establish whether population screening for AF reduces incidence of stroke risk.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Approximately 82 000 people aged 70 years and over and not on oral anticoagulation are being recruited from general practices in England. Patients on the palliative care register or residents in a nursing home are excluded. Eligible people are identified using electronic patient records from general practices and sent an invitation and consent form to participate by post. Consenting participants are randomised at a ratio of 2:1 (control:intervention) with clustering by household. Those randomised to the intervention arm are sent an information leaflet inviting them to participate in screening, which involves use of a handheld single-lead ECG four times a day for 3 weeks. ECG traces identified by an algorithm as possible AF are reviewed by cardiologists. Participants with AF are seen by a general practitioner for consideration of anticoagulation. The primary outcome is stroke. Major secondary outcomes are: death, major bleeding and cardiovascular events. Follow-up will be via electronic health records for an average of 4 years. The primary analysis will be by intention-to-treat using time-to-event modelling. Results from this trial will be combined with follow-up data from the cluster-randomised pilot trial by fixed-effects meta-analysis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The London-Central National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (19/LO/1597) provided ethical approval. Dissemination will include public-friendly summaries, reports and engagement with the UK National Screening Committee.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN72104369.

Atrial fibrillation increases the risk of all-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease, and vascular dementia: A cohort study of 373, 415 participants in the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Accumulated evidence has highlighted the association between atrial fibrillation and the risk of developing dementia.

METHODS

This current cohort study utilized data from the UK Biobank to explore the association between atrial fibrillation (AF) and all-cause dementia (ACD), encompassing its main subtypes (Alzheimer's disease (AD), and vascular dementia (VD)). Cox proportional hazards models were applied to examine the association of AF and dementia with its primary subtypes after adjusting for different sets of covariates. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95 % confidential intervals (CIs) were estimated to quantify the associated risks. Competing risk model was applied in sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

After exclusion, 373, 415 participants entered the primary analysis. Among these, 27, 934 (7.48 %) were with a history AF at baseline, while 345, 481 (92.52 %) were without. During a mean follow-up of 13.45 years, ACD was diagnosed in 1215 individuals with AF and 3988 individuals without AF. Participants with AF had higher risks of ACD (1.79 [1.67-1.91]), AD (1.48 [1.32-1.65]), and VD (2.46 [2.17-2.80]) in the fully adjusted Cox regression models. Results of subgroup and sensitivity analyses predominantly aligned with the positive associations in primary analysis.

LIMITATIONS

The applicability of our findings to diverse ethnicities might require careful consideration and the behind biological mechanisms need to be further revealed.

CONCLUSIONS

It indicated that people with atrial fibrillation had an increased future risk of all-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia. Atrial fibrillation screening and prevention strategies should take into account to prevent and delay the onset of dementia.

Atrial Fibrillation and Dementia: Pathophysiological Mechanisms and Clinical Implications

Numerous longitudinal studies suggest a strong association between cardiovascular risk factors and cognitive impairment. Individuals with atrial fibrillation are at higher risk of dementia and cognitive dysfunction, as atrial fibrillation increases the risk of cerebral hypoperfusion, inflammation, and stroke. The lack of comprehensive understanding of the observed association and the complex relationship between these two diseases makes it very hard to provide robust guidelines on therapeutic indications. With this review, we attempt to shed some light on how atrial fibrillation is related to dementia, what we know regarding preventive interventions, and how we could move forward in managing those very frequently overlapping conditions.

Direct oral anticoagulants are associated with lower risk of dementia in patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased risk of dementia. Whether direct oral anticoagulation (DOAC) reduce this risk compared to vitamin-K antagonist (VKA) is unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the risk of new all-cause dementia and vascular dementia in AF patients, treated with either DOAC or VKAs.

METHODS

Anonymized electronic medical records from the TriNetX federated research network were used. AF patients treated with DOACs within 1 month of AF diagnosis, were 1:1 propensity score-matched with those treated with a VKA. The analysis included patients who completed 5 and 10 years of follow-up and were assessed for all-cause dementia and vascular dementia. Cox proportional hazard models were used to hazard ratios (HR), respectively with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Among patients who completed 5 years of follow-up, after propensity score matching the final cohort consisted of 215,404 well-matched AF patients. All-cause dementia was diagnosed in 4,153 (3.9%) patients among those treated with DOACs and 4,150 (3.9%) among the VKA-treated patients (HR: 1.01, 95%CI: 0.96-1.05). Among patients 65-74 years old who were followed, DOAC treatment was associated with lower risk of dementia compared to VKAs (HR: 0.72; 95%CI: 0.59-0.86). Among patients who completed 10 years of follow-up, after propensity score matching the final cohort consisted of 19,208 well-matched AF patients. All-cause dementia was diagnosed in 314 (3.3%) patients among those treated with DOACs and 451 (4.7%) among the VKA-treated patients. DOAC treatment was associated with significantly lower risk of all-cause dementia during a follow-up period of 10 years compared to VKA treatment (HR: 0.72, 95%CI: 0.62-0.83), which remained consistent in patiens ≥65 years old.

CONCLUSION

This propensity-score matched analysis showed that among AF patients, treatment with a DOACs for a period of 10 years was associated with lower risk of all-cause dementia and vascular dementia compared to VKA treatment, an effect which was not apparent in those treated for shorter duration. This finding requires confirmation in ongoing randomised controlled trials.

Oral anticoagulants: A plausible new treatment for Alzheimer's disease?

Alzheimer's disease (AD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) are strongly associated. Both are multifactorial disorders with long asymptomatic phases and similar risk factors. Indeed, CVD signatures such as cerebral microbleeds, micro-infarcts, atherosclerosis, cerebral amyloid angiopathy and a procoagulant state are highly associated with AD. However, AD and CVD co-development and the molecular mechanisms underlying such associations are not understood. Here, we review the evidence regarding the vascular component of AD and clinical studies using anticoagulants that specifically evaluated the development of AD and other dementias. Most studies reported a markedly decreased incidence of composite dementia in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation, with the highest benefit for direct oral anticoagulants. However, sub-analyses by differential dementia diagnosis were scarce and inconclusive. We finally discuss whether anticoagulation could be a plausible preventive/therapeutic approach for AD and, if so, which would be the best drug and strategy to maximize clinical benefit and minimize potential risks. LINKED ARTICLES: This article is part of a themed issue From Alzheimer's Disease to Vascular Dementia: Different Roads Leading to Cognitive Decline. To view the other articles in this section visit http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bph.v181.6/issuetoc.

Increased risk of dementia differs across cardiovascular diseases and types of dementia - Data from a nationwide study

AIMS

Dementia is a major health problem. Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and risk factors are associated with incident dementia. However, whether there is an association among CVD, Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VD) at the population level remains unclear.

METHODS

We analysed the association between CVD (heart failure [HF], atrial fibrillation [AF], myocardial infarction [MI], peripheral arterial disease, stroke and transient ischemic attack) and the incidence of dementia using nationwide FinnGen data of 218,192 individuals. The last follow-up information on dementia was available from October 2021.

RESULTS

The age at the end of the follow-up was 61.7 ± 17.1 years, and 53% were women. Overall, we observed 9701 (4.4%) dementia, 6323 (2.9%) AD and 1918 (0.7%) VD cases. Individuals with CVD had a higher risk of developing dementia than unexposed individuals. In the multivariable-adjusted Cox models, stroke was most strongly associated with dementia (hazard ratio [HR] 1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6-1.8). CVD was more strongly associated with VD than with AD. Individuals with HF and MI had an increased risk of AD (HF: HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.04-1.19; MI: HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.18). AF was associated with VD (HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.42-1.77), but not with AD (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.97-1.09). Clinical characteristics, such as diabetes, smoking and alcohol abuse, were associated with both types of dementia.

CONCLUSION

All major CVDs were associated with an increased risk of developing dementia, particularly VD. Therefore, CVD onset should prompt an assessment of cognitive decline and possible preventive measures.

Realtime Diagnosis from Electrocardiogram Artificial Intelligence-Guided Screening for Atrial Fibrillation with Long Follow-Up (REGAL): Rationale and design of a pragmatic, decentralized, randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased risks of stroke and dementia. Early diagnosis and treatment could reduce the disease burden, but AF is often undiagnosed. An artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm has been shown to identify patients with previously unrecognized AF; however, monitoring these high-risk patients has been challenging. Consumer wearable devices could be an alternative to enable long-term follow-up.

OBJECTIVES

To test whether Apple Watch, used as a long-term monitoring device, can enable early diagnosis of AF in patients who were identified as having high risk based on AI-ECG.

DESIGN

The Realtime diagnosis from Electrocardiogram (ECG) Artificial Intelligence (AI)-Guided Screening for Atrial Fibrillation (AF) with Long Follow-up (REGAL) study is a pragmatic trial that will accrue up to 2,000 older adults with a high likelihood of unrecognized AF determined by AI-ECG to reach our target of 1,420 completed participants. Participants will be 1:1 randomized to intervention or control and will be followed up for 2 years. Patients in the intervention arm will receive or use their existing Apple Watch and iPhone and record a 30-second ECG using the watch routinely or if an abnormal heart rate notification is prompted. The primary outcome is newly diagnosed AF. Secondary outcomes include changes in cognitive function, stroke, major bleeding, and all-cause mortality. The trial will utilize a pragmatic, digitally-enabled, decentralized design to allow patients to consent and receive follow-up remotely without traveling to the study sites.

SUMMARY

The REGAL trial will examine whether a consumer wearable device can serve as a long-term monitoring approach in older adults to detect AF and prevent cognitive function decline. If successful, the approach could have significant implications on how future clinical practice can leverage consumer devices for early diagnosis and disease prevention.

CLINICALTRIALS

GOV: : NCT05923359.

Stroke and bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation with CHA2DS2-VASC risk score of one: the Norwegian AFNOR study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The benefit of oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy in atrial fibrillation (AF) and intermediate stroke risk is debated. In a nationwide Norwegian cohort with a non-sex CHA2DS2-VASc risk score of one, this study aimed to investigate (i) stroke and bleeding risk in AF patients with and without OAC treatment, and (ii) the risk of stroke in non-anticoagulated individuals with and without AF.

METHODS

A total of 1 118 762 individuals including 34 460 AF patients were followed during 2011-18 until ischaemic stroke, intracranial haemorrhage, increased CHA2DS2-VASc score, or study end. One-year incidence rates (IRs) were calculated as events per 100 person-years (%/py). Cox regression models provided adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs [95% confidence intervals]).

RESULTS

Among AF patients, the ischaemic stroke IR was 0.51%/py in OAC users and 1.05%/py in non-users (aHR 0.47 [0.37-0.59]). Intracranial haemorrhage IR was 0.28%/py in OAC users and 0.19%/py in non-users (aHR 1.23 [0.88-1.72]). Oral anticoagulant use was associated with an increased risk of major bleeding (aHR 1.37 [1.16-1.63]) but lower risk of the combined outcome of ischaemic stroke, major bleeding, and mortality (aHR 0.57 [0.51-0.63]). Non-anticoagulated individuals with AF had higher risk of ischaemic stroke compared to non-AF individuals with the same risk profile (aHR 2.47 [2.17-2.81]).

CONCLUSIONS

In AF patients at intermediate risk of stroke, OAC use was associated with overall favourable clinical outcomes. Non-anticoagulated AF patients had higher risk of ischaemic stroke compared to the general population without AF with the same risk profile.

Impact of dementia and drug compliance on patients with acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

In South Korea, the number of people with dementia is rising at a worrisome rate, and many of them also have acute myocardial infarction (AMI), a disease with a high mortality rate.

HYPOTHESIS

We speculated that dementia and drug compliance have significant impact on the mortality of patients with AMI.

METHODS

The study derived data from the National Health Insurance Service-Senior for a retrospective cohort study. The total number of patients diagnosed with AMI for the first time between 2007 and 2013 was 16 835, among whom 2021 had dementia. Medication possession ratio (MPR) was used to assess medication adherence.

RESULTS

AMI patients with dementia had unfavorable baseline characteristics; they had significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.49; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.34-2.66; p < .001) and lower MPR (aspirin: 21.9% vs. 42.8%; p < .001). AMI patients were stratified by presence of dementia and medication adherence, and the survival rate was the highest among those with no dementia and good adherence, followed by those with no dementia and poor adherence, those with dementia and good adherence, and those with dementia and poor adherence. The multivariable analysis revealed that dementia (HR: 1.64; 95% CI: 1.53-1.75; p < .001) and poor adherence to medication (HR: 1.60; 95% CI: 1.49-1.71; p < .001) had a significant association with all-cause mortality in AMI patients.

CONCLUSIONS

AMI patients with dementia have a higher mortality rate. Their prognosis is negatively affected by their poorer medication adherence than patients without dementia.

Oral Anticoagulant Use in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation at Low Risk of Stroke and Associated Bleeding Complications

BACKGROUND

The use of oral anticoagulants (OACs) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and low stroke risk might cause more harm than benefit. Little attention has been given to address its prevalence and associated consequences. This study aimed to investigate the prescription rate of OACs, identify associated factors, and describe incident bleeding events in low-risk patients.

METHODS

We included patients with a new diagnosis of AF between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2018 having a low risk of stroke (CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 for males and 1 for females) from Australian general practice data (MedicineInsight). Patients were classified as OAC users if there was a recorded prescription of an OAC within 60 days of AF diagnosis, and factors associated with the prescription of an OAC were assessed using logistic regression. Recorded incident bleeding events were identified within 6 months after AF diagnosis or after OAC initiation for OAC non-users and users, respectively. The risk of bleeding was compared between the two groups by adjusting their baseline differences using propensity score matching.

RESULTS

The study included 2810 low-risk patients (62.3% male) with a mean age of 49.3 ± 10.8 years. Of the total, 705 (25.1%) patients had a record of OAC prescription within 60 days of diagnosis of AF. Older age (odds ratio [OR] 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.04) and diagnosis periods (2015-2016 [OR 1.46; 95% CI 1.10-1.94] and 2017-2018 [OR 1.65; 95% CI 1.17-2.23] vs. 2011-2012) were associated with higher odds of OAC initiation. Female sex (OR 0.71; 95% CI 0.59-0.85), higher bleeding risk (ORBIT score; OR 0.80; 95% CI 0.68-0.94), and higher socioeconomic index for areas (SEIFA) quintiles (SEIFA quintiles; 2 [OR 0.65; 95% CI 0.48-0.88], 3 [OR 0.74; 95% CI 0.56-0.98], 4 [OR 0.70; 95% CI 0.52-0.94], 5 [OR 0.69; 95% CI 0.52-0.91] compared with quintile 1) were associated with lower odds of OAC prescription. A total of 52 (in 1.8% of patients) incident bleeds were identified, with 18 (2.6%) among OAC users. The rate of bleeding was not significantly different between users and non-users after matching. However, within OAC users, commencement of OAC was associated with an increased risk of bleeding compared to the period before OAC initiation (p = 0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

One in four patients at low risk of stroke received an OAC within 60 days of AF diagnosis. Older age and the period following the widespread availability of direct-acting OACs were associated with an increased likelihood of OAC prescription. Positively, using OACs was not associated with an increased rate of bleeding compared to non-users.

A comparison of the effects of NOAC and VKA therapy on the incidence of dementia in patients with atrial fibrillation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Atrial fibrillation (AF) patients are more susceptible to dementia, but the results about the effect of oral anticoagulants (OACs) on the risk of dementia are not consistent. We hypothesize that OAC is associated with a reduced risk of dementia with AF and that nonvitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOAC) are superior to vitamin K antagonists (VKA). Four databases were systematically searched until July 1, 2022. Two reviewers independently selected literature, evaluated quality, and extracted data. Data were examined using pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Fourteen research studies involving 910 patients were enrolled. The findings indicated that OACs were associated with a decreased risk of dementia (pooled HR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.55-0.82, I2  = 87.7%), and NOACs had a stronger effect than VKAs (pooled HR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.79-0.95, I2  = 72%), especially in participants with a CHA2DS2VASc score ≥ 2 (pooled HR: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.72-0.99). Subgroup analysis demonstrated no statistical significance among patients aged <65 years old (pooled HR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.64-1.07), patients in "based on treatment" studies (pooled HR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.75-1.06), or people with no stroke background (pooled HR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.71-1.15). This analysis revealed that OACs were related to the reduction of dementia incidence in AF individuals, and NOACs were better than VKAs, remarkably in people with a CHA2DS2VASc score ≥ 2. The results should be confirmed by further prospective studies, particularly in patients in "based on treatment" studies aged <65 years old with a CHA2DS2VASc score < 2 or without a stroke background.

Ablation of atrial fibrillation and dementia risk reduction during long-term follow-up: a nationwide population-based study

AIMS

This study investigated the epidemiological characteristics of new-onset dementia in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and the association of catheter ablation with different subtypes of dementia.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study using data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. In total, 136 774 patients without a history of dementia were selected after 1:1 propensity score matching based on age (with AF vs. without AF). A competing risk model was used to investigate the three subtypes of dementia: Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, and other/mixed dementia. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was performed to minimize the impact on dementia risk due to the imbalanced baseline characteristics. After a median follow-up period of 6.6 years, 8704 events of new-onset dementia occurred. Among all AF patients developing dementia, 73% were classified as having Alzheimer's disease, 16% as having vascular dementia, and 11% as having other/mixed dementia. The cumulative incidence of dementia in AF patients was higher than those without AF (log-rank test: P < 0.001 for both before and after IPTW). In patients with AF undergoing catheter ablation, the total dementia risk decreased significantly [P = 0.015, hazard ratio (HR): 0.74, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.58-0.94] after multivariable adjustment, but not for the subtype of vascular dementia (P = 0.59, HR: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.49-1.50).

CONCLUSION

Patients with AF have a higher incidence of all types of dementia, including Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, and a mixed type of dementia. Alzheimer's disease is less likely to occur in patients with AF undergoing catheter ablation.

Ten-Year Trends in Psychotropic Prescribing and Polypharmacy in Australian General Practice Patients with and without Dementia

OBJECTIVE

Little research has evaluated trends in psychotropic prescribing and polypharmacy in primary care patients, especially those with dementia. We sought to examine this in Australia from 2011 to 2020 using the primary care dataset, MedicineInsight.

METHODS

Ten consecutive serial cross-sectional analyses were performed to evaluate the proportion of patients aged 65 years or more, with a recorded diagnosis of dementia, who were prescribed psychotropic medications within the first six months of each year from 2011 to 2020. This proportion was compared with propensity score-matched control patients without dementia.

RESULTS

Before matching, 24,701 patients (59.2% females) with, and 72,105 patients (59.2% females) without, a recorded diagnosis of dementia were included. In 2011, 42% (95% confidence interval [CI] 40.5-43.5%) of patients in the dementia group had at least one recorded prescription of a psychotropic medication, which declined to 34.2% (95% CI 33.3-35.1%; p for trend < 0.001) by 2020. However, it remained unchanged for matched controls (36% [95% CI 34.6-37.5%] in 2011 and 36.7% [95% CI 35.7-37.6%] in 2020). The greatest decline in the dementia groups by medication class was for antipsychotics (from 15.9% [95% CI 14.8-17.0%] to 8.8% [95% CI 8.2-9.4%]; p for trend < 0.001). During this period, the prevalence of psychotropic polypharmacy (use of two or more individual psychotropics) also decreased from 21.7% (95% CI 20.5-22.9%) to 18.1% (95% CI 17.4-18.9%) in the dementia groups, and slightly increased from 15.2% (95% CI 14.1-16.3%) to 16.6% (95% CI 15.9-17.3%) in the matched controls.

CONCLUSIONS

The decline in psychotropic prescribing, particularly antipsychotics, in Australian primary care patients with dementia is encouraging. However, psychotropic polypharmacy still occurred in almost one in five patients with dementia at the end of the study period. Programs focused on encouraging further reductions in the use of multiple psychotropic drugs in patients with dementia are recommended, particularly in rural and remote regions.

Does early detection of atrial fibrillation reduce the risk of thromboembolic events? Rationale and design of the Heartline study

BACKGROUND

The impact of using direct-to-consumer wearable devices as a means to timely detect atrial fibrillation (AF) and to improve clinical outcomes is unknown.

METHODS

Heartline is a pragmatic, randomized, and decentralized application-based trial of US participants aged ≥65 years. Two randomized cohorts include adults with possession of an iPhone and without a history of AF and those with a diagnosis of AF taking a direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) for ≥30 days. Participants within each cohort are randomized (3:1) to either a core digital engagement program (CDEP) via iPhone application (Heartline application) and an Apple Watch (Apple Watch Group) or CDEP alone (iPhone-only Group). The Apple Watch Group has the watch irregular rhythm notification (IRN) feature enabled and access to the ECG application on the Apple Watch. If an IRN notification is issued for suspected AF then the study application instructs participants in the Apple Watch Group to seek medical care. All participants were "watch-naïve" at time of enrollment and have an option to either buy or loan an Apple Watch as part of this study. The primary end point is time from randomization to clinical diagnosis of AF, with confirmation by health care claims. Key secondary endpoint are claims-based incidence of a 6-component composite cardiovascular/systemic embolism/mortality event, DOAC medication use and adherence, costs/health resource utilization, and frequency of hospitalizations for bleeding. All study assessments, including patient-reported outcomes, are conducted through the study application. The target study enrollment is approximately 28,000 participants in total; at time of manuscript submission, a total of 26,485 participants have been enrolled into the study.

CONCLUSION

The Heartline Study will assess if an Apple Watch with the IRN and ECG application, along with application-facilitated digital health engagement modules, improves time to AF diagnosis and cardiovascular outcomes in a real-world environment.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04276441.

Anticoagulants and Dementia: A Systematic Review

Many patients diagnosed with atrial fibrillation (AF) develop dementia. Most AF patients are also prescribed some antithrombotic medication to reduce the incidence of stroke, as clots can form within the left atrium. Some research has found that, excluding patients who have experienced strokes, anticoagulants may serve as protective agents against dementia in AF. This systematic review aims to analyze the incidence of dementia in patients who were prescribed anticoagulants. A comprehensive literature review was conducted using the databases PubMed, ProQuest, and ScienceDirect. Only experimental studies and meta-analyses were chosen. The search included the keywords "dementia and anticoagulant" and "cognitive decline and anticoagulants". Our initial search generated 53,306 articles, which were narrowed down to 29 by applying strict inclusion and exclusion algorithms. There was a decreased risk of dementia in patients who had been prescribed oral anticoagulants (OACs) in general, but only studies investigating direct oral anticoagulants OACs (DOACs) suggested that they were protective against dementia. Vitamin K antagonist (VKA) anticoagulants showed conflicting results, with some studies indicating they might increase the risk for dementia, while others suggested that they are protective against it. Warfarin, a specific VKA, was mainly shown to reduce the risk of dementia but was not as effective as DOACs or other OACs. Lastly, it was found that antiplatelet therapy may increase the risk of dementia in AF patients.

The Impact of Atrial Fibrillation Treatment Strategies on Cognitive Function

There is increasing evidence to suggest that atrial fibrillation is associated with a heightened risk of dementia. The mechanism of interaction is unclear. Atrial fibrillation-induced cerebral infarcts, hypoperfusion, systemic inflammation, and anticoagulant therapy-induced cerebral microbleeds, have been proposed to explain the link between these conditions. An understanding of the pathogenesis of atrial fibrillation-associated cognitive decline may enable the development of treatment strategies targeted towards the prevention of dementia in atrial fibrillation patients. The aim of this review is to explore the impact that existing atrial fibrillation treatment strategies may have on cognition and the putative mechanisms linking the two conditions. This review examines how components of the 'Atrial Fibrillation Better Care pathway' (stroke risk reduction, rhythm control, rate control, and risk factor management) may influence the trajectory of atrial fibrillation-associated cognitive decline. The requirements for further prospective studies to understand the mechanistic link between atrial fibrillation and dementia and to develop treatment strategies targeted towards the prevention of atrial fibrillation-associated cognitive decline, are highlighted.

Chinese expert consensus on antithrombotic management of high-risk elderly patients with chronic coronary syndrome

The prevalence and mortality of coronary artery disease (CAD) in China are still at an increasing stage. CAD can be classified as acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or chronic coronary syndrome (CCS). CCS is the main manifestation type of elderly patients with CAD, with a large number of patients, long course of disease, and poor prognosis, leading to decreased quality of life and heavy disease burden and economic burden. Especially in patients with high-risk CCS, the case fatality rate and total mortality are high. In order to better standardize the antithrombotic treatment of elderly patients with high-risk CCS, the Geriatrics Branch of the Chinese Medical Association organizes domestic experts to develop this consensus for clinicians' reference based on published clinical research evidence, combined with relevant guidelines, consensus, and expert recommendations in China and abroad.

Comparing the risk of dementia in subjects with atrial fibrillation using non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants versus vitamin K antagonists: a Belgian nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with cognitive decline, with anticoagulated subjects potentially having a reduced risk compared with non-anticoagulated subjects. However, whether non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) may reduce the risk of dementia compared with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) is unclear yet. Therefore, the risk of dementia was compared between AF subjects on NOACs versus VKAs.

METHODS

AF subjects initiating anticoagulation between 2013 and 2019 were identified in Belgian nationwide data. Inverse probability of treatment weighted Cox regression was used to investigate cognitive outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 237,012 AF subjects (310,850 person-years (PYs)), NOAC use was associated with a significantly lower risk of dementia (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.91, 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.85-0.98)) compared with VKAs. A trend towards a lower risk of vascular dementia (aHR 0.89, 95% CI (0.76-1.04)) and significantly lower risk of other/unspecified dementia (aHR 0.91, 95% CI (0.84-0.99)) were observed with NOACs compared with VKAs, whereas the risk of Alzheimer's disease was similar (aHR 0.99, 95% CI (0.88-1.11)). Apixaban (aHR 0.91, 95% CI (0.83-0.99)) and edoxaban (aHR 0.79, 95% CI (0.63-0.99)) were associated with significantly lower risks of dementia compared with VKAs, while risks were not significantly different with dabigatran (aHR 1.02, 95% CI (0.93-1.12)) and rivaroxaban (aHR 0.97, 95% CI (0.90-1.05)). Comparable risks of dementia were observed between individual NOACs, except for significantly lower risks of dementia (aHR 0.93, 95% CI (0.87-0.98)) and other/unspecified dementia (aHR 0.90 (0.84-0.97)) with apixaban compared with rivaroxaban.

CONCLUSION

NOACs were associated with a significantly lower risk of dementia compared with VKAs, likely driven by apixaban and edoxaban use.

Oral Anticoagulant Use and Appropriateness in Elderly Patients with Atrial Fibrillation in Complex Clinical Conditions: ACONVENIENCE Study

Non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is the most common arrhythmia in older patients. Although direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOAC) are the antithrombotic treatment of choice, irrespective of age, certain factors may limit their use. The aim of the ACONVENIENCE study was to consult the opinion of a multidisciplinary panel of experts on the appropriateness of using OACs in elderly patients (>75 years) with NVAF associated with certain complex clinical conditions. A consensus project was performed on the basis of a systematic review of the literature, and application of a two-round Delphi survey. The agreement of 79 panellists on 30 Delphi-type statements was evaluated, and their opinion on the appropriateness of different oral anticoagulants in 16 complex clinical scenarios was assessed. A total of 27 consensus statements were agreed upon, including all statements addressing anticoagulation in older patients and in patients at high risk of bleeding complications, and most of those addressing frailty, dementia, risk of falling, and complex cardiac situations. It was almost unanimously agreed upon that advanced age should not influence the anticoagulation decision. Apixaban was the highest-rated therapeutic option in 14/16 situations, followed by edoxaban. There is a high degree of agreement on anticoagulation in older patients with NVAF. Age should not be the single limiting factor when prescribing OACs, and the decision should be made based on net clinical benefit and a comprehensive geriatric assessment. Apixaban, followed by edoxaban, was considered the most appropriate treatment in the various complex clinical situations examined.

Association between heart and dementia… keep an eye on the left atrium

Atrial fibrillation is associated with an increased risk of cognitive impairment and dementia. The mechanisms are not well known, but they are probably multifactorial and involve atrial myopathy, cardio-embolism, cerebral hypoperfusion, and comorbidities (systemic vascular sclerosis, disease of the small cerebral vessels, inflammation, etc.). Atrial fibrillation therapy could have a protective effect on dementia through diversified actions: (i) prevention of left atrial remodelling; (ii) prevention of cardio-embolism and silent (and not) cerebral infarcts; (iii) improvement of cardiac output and cerebral perfusion. Randomized trials will be needed to clarify the links between left atrium and dementia and to identify the most appropriate therapeutic strategies.

Framework for Clinical Trials in Cerebral Small Vessel Disease (FINESSE): A Review

Importance

Cerebral small vessel disease (SVD) causes a quarter of strokes and is the most common pathology underlying vascular cognitive impairment and dementia. An important step to developing new treatments is better trial methodology. Disease mechanisms in SVD differ from other stroke etiologies; therefore, treatments need to be evaluated in cohorts in which SVD has been well characterized. Furthermore, SVD itself can be caused by a number of different pathologies, the most common of which are arteriosclerosis and cerebral amyloid angiopathy. To date, there have been few sufficiently powered high-quality randomized clinical trials in SVD, and inconsistent trial methodology has made interpretation of some findings difficult.

Observations

To address these issues and develop guidelines for optimizing design of clinical trials in SVD, the Framework for Clinical Trials in Cerebral Small Vessel Disease (FINESSE) was created under the auspices of the International Society of Vascular Behavioral and Cognitive Disorders. Experts in relevant aspects of SVD trial methodology were convened, and a structured Delphi consensus process was used to develop recommendations. Areas in which recommendations were developed included optimal choice of study populations, choice of clinical end points, use of brain imaging as a surrogate outcome measure, use of circulating biomarkers for participant selection and as surrogate markers, novel trial designs, and prioritization of therapeutic agents using genetic data via Mendelian randomization.

Conclusions and Relevance

The FINESSE provides recommendations for trial design in SVD for which there are currently few effective treatments. However, new insights into understanding disease pathogenesis, particularly from recent genetic studies, provide novel pathways that could be therapeutically targeted. In addition, whether other currently available cardiovascular interventions are specifically effective in SVD, as opposed to other subtypes of stroke, remains uncertain. FINESSE provides a framework for design of trials examining such therapeutic approaches.

Effects of dabigatran versus warfarin on 2-year cognitive outcomes in old patients with atrial fibrillation: results from the GIRAF randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Observational studies support a role for oral anticoagulation to reduce the risk of dementia in atrial fibrillation patients, but conclusive data are lacking. Since dabigatran offers a more stable anticoagulation, we hypothesized it would reduce cognitive decline when compared to warfarin in old patients with atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

The GIRAF trial was a 24-month, randomized, parallel-group, controlled, open-label, hypothesis generating trial. The trial was done in six centers including a geriatric care unit, secondary and tertiary care cardiology hospitals in São Paulo, Brazil. We included patients aged ≥ 70 years and CHA2DS2-VASc score > 1. The primary endpoint was the absolute difference in cognitive performance at 2 years. Patients were assigned 1:1 to take dabigatran (110 or 150 mg twice daily) or warfarin, controlled by INR and followed for 24 months. Patients were evaluated at baseline and at 2 years with a comprehensive and thorough cognitive evaluation protocol of tests for different cognitive domains including the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE), a composite neuropsychological test battery (NTB), and computer-generated tests (CGNT).

RESULTS

Between 2014 and 2019, 5523 participants were screened and 200 were assigned to dabigatran (N = 99) or warfarin (N = 101) treatment. After adjustment for age, log of years of education, and raw baseline score, the difference between the mean change from baseline in the dabigatran group minus warfarin group was - 0.12 for MMSE (95% confidence interval [CI] - 0.88 to 0.63; P = 0.75), 0.05 (95% CI - 0.07 to 0.18; P = 0.40) for NTB, - 0.15 (95% CI - 0.30 to 0.01; P = 0.06) for CGNT, and - 0.96 (95% CI - 1.80 to 0.13; P = 0.02) for MoCA, with higher values suggesting less cognitive decline in the warfarin group.

CONCLUSIONS

For elderly patients with atrial fibrillation, and without cognitive compromise at baseline that did not have stroke and were adequately treated with warfarin (TTR of 70%) or dabigatran for 2 years, there was no statistical difference at 5% significance level in any of the cognitive outcomes after adjusting for multiple comparisons.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Cognitive Impairment Related to Atrial Fibrillation Prevention Trial (GIRAF), NCT01994265 .

Impact of Medication Adherence on the Association Between Oral Anticoagulant Use and Risk of Dementia: A Retrospective Cohort Study using the Japanese Claims Database

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major risk factor for the development of stroke and silent cerebral infarct (SCI). Additionally, AF is independently associated with neurological disorders, including cognitive impairment and dementia. Although oral anticoagulants (OACs) are used to reduce the risk of development of stroke and SCI in patients with AF, it is unclear whether OACs reduce the risk of dementia.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the association between OAC use and dementia in relatively young patients with AF. Moreover, the impact of medication adherence on the association between OAC use and the risk of dementia was examined.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was conducted using a large claims database-Japan Medical Data Center, Inc. (JMDC)-from which newly diagnosed patients with AF younger than 75 years of age were identified. We analyzed medication adherence using the medication possession ratio (MPR). The dementia risk was compared between the OAC and non-OAC groups using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and the Kaplan-Meier method after propensity score matching. Similarly, the MPR-classified and non-OAC groups were also compared.

RESULTS

OAC administration was not associated with the risk of dementia in the entire cohort (hazard ratio [HR] 0.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.40-1.08; p = 0.098); however, OAC administration in patients with an MPR ≥90% was significantly associated with a lower risk of dementia (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.25-0.81; p = 0.008). Meanwhile, direct OAC (DOAC) and warfarin (WF) administration was not associated with the risk of dementia regardless of MPR. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a significant difference in the incidence of dementia between the MPR ≥ 90% OAC and non-OAC groups (log-rank test: p = 0.006). However, no difference was observed in the incidence of dementia between the MPR ≥ 90% WF and non-OAC groups, or between the MPR ≥ 90% DOAC and non-OAC groups.

CONCLUSIONS

OAC administration was not associated with the risk of dementia in relatively young patients with AF; however, when limited to patients with an MPR ≥ 90%, OAC administration reduced the risk of dementia. Our results suggest that the association between OAC use and dementia should be evaluated while considering medication adherence.

Early diagnosis and better rhythm management to improve outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation: the 8th AFNET/EHRA consensus conference

Despite marked progress in the management of atrial fibrillation (AF), detecting AF remains difficult and AF-related complications cause unacceptable morbidity and mortality even on optimal current therapy. This document summarizes the key outcomes of the 8th AFNET/EHRA Consensus Conference of the Atrial Fibrillation NETwork (AFNET) and the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA). Eighty-three international experts met in Hamburg for 2 days in October 2021. Results of the interdisciplinary, hybrid discussions in breakout groups and the plenary based on recently published and unpublished observations are summarized in this consensus paper to support improved care for patients with AF by guiding prevention, individualized management, and research strategies. The main outcomes are (i) new evidence supports a simple, scalable, and pragmatic population-based AF screening pathway; (ii) rhythm management is evolving from therapy aimed at improving symptoms to an integrated domain in the prevention of AF-related outcomes, especially in patients with recently diagnosed AF; (iii) improved characterization of atrial cardiomyopathy may help to identify patients in need for therapy; (iv) standardized assessment of cognitive function in patients with AF could lead to improvement in patient outcomes; and (v) artificial intelligence (AI) can support all of the above aims, but requires advanced interdisciplinary knowledge and collaboration as well as a better medico-legal framework. Implementation of new evidence-based approaches to AF screening and rhythm management can improve outcomes in patients with AF. Additional benefits are possible with further efforts to identify and target atrial cardiomyopathy and cognitive impairment, which can be facilitated by AI.

Low Risk of Dementia in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation and a Clustering of Healthy Lifestyle Behaviors: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

Background Limited data are available on the clinical impact of healthy lifestyle behaviors on the risk of dementia in patients with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). Here, we aimed to evaluate the association between a combination of healthy lifestyle behaviors and the risk of incident dementia in patients with AF. Methods and Results Using the Korean National Health Insurance database between 2009 and 2016, we identified 199 952 adult patients who were newly diagnosed as AF without dementia. Patients were categorized into 4 groups by healthy lifestyle behavior score (HLS) with 1 point each being assigned for no current smoking, alcohol abstinence, and regular exercise. The HLS 0, 1, 2, and 3 groups included 4.4%, 17.4%, 53.4%, and 24.8% of the patients, respectively. We performed an inverse probability of treatment weighting to balance covariates between HLS groups. The HLS 1, 2, and 3 groups were associated with a lower risk of dementia compared with the HLS 0 group (hazard ratio [HR], 0.769; 95% CI, 0.704-0.842 for HLS 1; HR, 0.770; 95% CI, 0.709-0.836 for HLS 2; and HR, 0.622; 95% CI, 0.569-0.679 for HLS 3). The risk of dementia showed a tendency to decrease with an increase in HLS (P-for-trend <0.001). Conclusions A clustering of healthy lifestyle behaviors was associated with a significantly lower risk of dementia in patients with new-onset AF. These findings support the promotion of a healthy lifestyle within an integrated care approach to AF patient management.

Oral Anticoagulant Treatment and the Risk of Dementia in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

We compared the dementia incidence rate between users and nonusers of oral anticoagulants (OACs) in a large cohort of primary care patients with atrial fibrillation.

Methods and Results

We performed a retrospective study using an Australia‐wide primary care data set, MedicineInsight. Patients aged ≥18 years and newly diagnosed with atrial fibrillation between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2017, and with no recorded history of dementia or stroke were included and followed until December 31, 2018. We applied a propensity score for 1:1 pair matching of baseline covariates and Cox regression for comparing the dementia incidence rates for OAC users and nonusers. Data were analyzed for 18 813 patients with atrial fibrillation (aged 71.9±12.6 years, 47.1% women); 11 419 had a recorded OAC prescription for at least 80% of their follow‐up time. During the mean follow‐up time of 3.7±2.0 years, 425 patients (2.3%; 95% CI, 2.1%–2.5%) had a documented diagnosis of dementia. After propensity matching, the incidence of dementia was significantly lower in OAC users (hazard ratio [HR], 0.59; 95% CI, 0.44–0.80; P<0.001) compared with nonusers. Direct‐acting oral anticoagulant users had a lower incidence of dementia than non‐OAC users (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.33–0.73; P<0.001) or warfarin users (HR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.28–0.74; P=0.002). No significant difference was seen between warfarin users and non‐OAC users (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.70–1.70; P=0.723).

Conclusions

In patients with atrial fibrillation, direct‐acting oral anticoagulant use may result in a lower incidence of dementia compared with treatment with either warfarin or no anticoagulant.

Atrial Fibrillation and Dementia: A Report From the AF-SCREEN International Collaboration

Growing evidence suggests a consistent association between atrial fibrillation (AF) and cognitive impairment and dementia that is independent of clinical stroke. This report from the AF-SCREEN International Collaboration summarizes the evidence linking AF to cognitive impairment and dementia. It provides guidance on the investigation and management of dementia in patients with AF on the basis of best available evidence. The document also addresses suspected pathophysiologic mechanisms and identifies knowledge gaps for future research. Whereas AF and dementia share numerous risk factors, the association appears to be independent of these variables. Nevertheless, the evidence remains inconclusive regarding a direct causal effect. Several pathophysiologic mechanisms have been proposed, some of which are potentially amenable to early intervention, including cerebral microinfarction, AF-related cerebral hypoperfusion, inflammation, microhemorrhage, brain atrophy, and systemic atherosclerotic vascular disease. The mitigating role of oral anticoagulation in specific subgroups (eg, low stroke risk, short duration or silent AF, after successful AF ablation, or atrial cardiopathy) and the effect of rhythm versus rate control strategies remain unknown. Likewise, screening for AF (in cognitively normal or cognitively impaired patients) and screening for cognitive impairment in patients with AF are debated. The pathophysiology of dementia and therapeutic strategies to reduce cognitive impairment warrant further investigation in individuals with AF. Cognition should be evaluated in future AF studies and integrated with patient-specific outcome priorities and patient preferences. Further large-scale prospective studies and randomized trials are needed to establish whether AF is a risk factor for cognitive impairment, to investigate strategies to prevent dementia, and to determine whether screening for unknown AF followed by targeted therapy might prevent or reduce cognitive impairment and dementia.

OUP accepted manuscript

Aims

There is currently no consensus on whether atrial fibrillation (AF) patients at low risk for stroke (one non-sex-related CHA₂DS₂-VASc point) should be treated with an oral anticoagulant.

Methods and results

We conducted a multi-country cohort study in Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Scotland. In total, 59 076 patients diagnosed with AF at low stroke risk were included. We assessed the rates of stroke or major bleeding during treatment with a non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC), a vitamin K antagonist (VKA), or no treatment, using inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) Cox regression. In untreated patients, the rate for ischaemic stroke was 0.70 per 100 person-years and the rate for a bleed was also 0.70 per 100 person-years. Comparing NOAC with no treatment, the stroke rate was lower [hazard ratio (HR) 0.72; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56–0.94], and the rate for intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) was not increased (HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.54–1.30). Comparing VKA with no treatment, the rate for stroke tended to be lower (HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.59–1.09), and the rate for ICH tended to be higher during VKA treatment (HR 1.37; 95% CI 0.88–2.14). Comparing NOAC with VKA treatment, the rate for stroke was similar (HR 0.92; 95% CI 0.70–1.22), but the rate for ICH was lower during NOAC treatment (HR 0.63; 95% CI 0.42–0.94).

Conclusion

These observational data suggest that NOAC treatment may be associated with a positive net clinical benefit compared with no treatment or VKA treatment in patients at low stroke risk, a question that can be tested through a randomized controlled trial.

OUP accepted manuscript

Aims

We aimed to investigate the association of clinically overt and silent brain lesions with cognitive function in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients.

Methods and results

We enrolled 1227 AF patients in a prospective, multicentre cohort study (Swiss-AF). Patients underwent standardized brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at baseline and after 2 years. We quantified new small non-cortical infarcts (SNCIs) and large non-cortical or cortical infarcts (LNCCIs), white matter lesions (WML), and microbleeds (Mb). Clinically, silent infarcts were defined as new SNCI/LNCCI on follow-up MRI in patients without a clinical stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) during follow-up. Cognition was assessed using validated tests. The mean age was 71 years, 26.1% were females, and 89.9% were anticoagulated. Twenty-eight patients (2.3%) experienced a stroke/TIA during 2 years of follow-up. Of the 68 (5.5%) patients with ≥1 SNCI/LNCCI, 60 (88.2%) were anticoagulated at baseline and 58 (85.3%) had a silent infarct. Patients with brain infarcts had a larger decline in cognition [median (interquartile range)] changes in Cognitive Construct score [−0.12 (−0.22; −0.07)] than patients without new brain infarcts [0.07 (−0.09; 0.25)]. New WML or Mb were not associated with cognitive decline.

Conclusion

In a contemporary cohort of AF patients, 5.5% had a new brain infarct on MRI after 2 years. The majority of these infarcts was clinically silent and occurred in anticoagulated patients. Clinically, overt and silent brain infarcts had a similar impact on cognitive decline.

Clinical Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02105844, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02105844

Anticoagulant prescribing for atrial fibrillation and risk of incident dementia

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between oral anticoagulant type (direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) vs vitamin K antagonists (VKAs)) and incident dementia or mild cognitive impairment (MCI) among patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS

Using linked electronic health record (EHR) data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in the UK, we conducted a historical cohort study among first-time oral anticoagulant users with incident non-valvular AF diagnosed from 2012 to 2018. We compared the incidence of (1) clinically coded dementia and (2) MCI between patients prescribed VKAs and DOACs using Cox proportional hazards regression models, with age as the underlying timescale, accounting for calendar time and time on treatment, sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, clinical comorbidities and medications.

RESULTS

Of 39 200 first-time oral anticoagulant users (44.6% female, median age 76 years, IQR 68-83), 20 687 (53%) were prescribed a VKA and 18 513 (47%) a DOAC at baseline. Overall, 1258 patients (3.2%) had GP-recorded incident dementia, incidence rate 16.5 per 1000 person-years. DOAC treatment for AF was associated with a 16% reduction in dementia diagnosis compared with VKA treatment in the whole cohort (adjusted HR 0.84, 95% CI: 0.73 to 0.98) and with a 26% reduction in incident MCI (adjusted HR 0.74, 95% CI: 0.65 to 0.84). Findings were similar across various sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Incident EHR-recorded dementia and MCI were less common among patients prescribed DOACs for new AF compared with those prescribed VKAs.

Risk of bias in observational studies using routinely collected data of comparative effectiveness research: a meta-research study

BACKGROUND

To assess the completeness of reporting, research transparency practices, and risk of selection and immortal bias in observational studies using routinely collected data for comparative effectiveness research.

METHOD

We performed a meta-research study by searching PubMed for comparative effectiveness observational studies evaluating therapeutic interventions using routinely collected data published in high impact factor journals from 01/06/2018 to 30/06/2020. We assessed the reporting of the study design (i.e., eligibility, treatment assignment, and the start of follow-up). The risk of selection bias and immortal time bias was determined by assessing if the time of eligibility, the treatment assignment, and the start of follow-up were synchronized to mimic the randomization following the target trial emulation framework.

RESULT

Seventy-seven articles were identified. Most studies evaluated pharmacological treatments (69%) with a median sample size of 24,000 individuals. In total, 20% of articles inadequately reported essential information of the study design. One-third of the articles (n = 25, 33%) raised some concerns because of unclear reporting (n = 6, 8%) or were at high risk of selection bias and/or immortal time bias (n = 19, 25%). Only five articles (25%) described a solution to mitigate these biases. Six articles (31%) discussed these biases in the limitations section.

CONCLUSION

Reporting of essential information of study design in observational studies remained suboptimal. Selection bias and immortal time bias were common methodological issues that researchers and physicians should be aware of when interpreting the results of observational studies using routinely collected data.

A systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the effect of oral anticoagulants on incidence of dementia in patients with atrial fibrillation

AIMS

To assess the effect of oral anticoagulant (OAC) administration on incidence of dementia in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) with Systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

We systematically searched the electronic databases including Pubmed, Embase, Cochrane library and ClinicalTrails.gov for relevant articles. The primary outcome was the incidence of dementia. The adjusted risk ratio (RR), odds ratio or hazard ratio were extracted and pooled by the random-effects models. Subgroup analysis was performed according to the setting observational window. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale, while publication bias was assessed by the Begg's and Egger's tests.

RESULTS

Nine studies were included in this review (2 prospective and 7 retrospective observational studies, including 613,920 patients). The results presented the significant association between OAC therapy and the reduced risk of dementia compared with no treatment (RR [95% CI] = 0.72 [0.60, 0.86], I²  = 97.2%; P = .000). In the subgroup analysis with an observational window, the pooled RR became statistically non-significant (including four studies, RR [95% CI] = 0.75 [0.51, 1.10], I²  = 98.8%; P = .000). There is no significant risk of bias and publication bias.

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicated the protective effect of OAC therapy for dementia in patients with AF. However, the results are limited because of high heterogeneity, inconsistent direction of effect in subgroup analysis with an observational window. Further prospective well-designed study is needed with longer follow-up duration in younger patients.

Lower dementia risk with anticoagulation and ablation in patients with atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common cardiac arrhythmia in the elderly population, has been associated with an impairment of cognitive function and an increased risk of dementia. Even though there does not appear to be solid evidence that any specific treatment prevents or delays AF-associated cognitive decline, evidence is accumulating regarding the possible treatment strategies for preventing dementia. Oral anticoagulation, especially non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants rather than warfarin use, has been suggested to be associated with reduced risk of dementia. Successfully maintaining sinus rhythm using catheter ablation might be also helpful in preventing subsequent dementia in patients with AF. In this review, we critically appraise the proposed treatment strategies for preventing AF-associated cognitive decline.

Comparing Warfarin and 4 Direct Oral Anticoagulants for the Risk of Dementia in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

Background and Purpose

Atrial fibrillation is a risk factor for dementia, and oral anticoagulant use is associated with a decreased risk of dementia in patients with atrial fibrillation. We aimed to investigate whether the risk of dementia would be different between patients treated with direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) compared with those with warfarin.

Methods

Using the Korean nationwide claims database from January 2014 to December 2017, we identified oral anticoagulant–naive nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients aged ≥40 years. For the comparisons, warfarin and DOAC groups were balanced using the inverse probability of treatment weighting method. The primary outcome was incident dementia.

Results

Among 72 846 of total study patients, 25 948 were treated with warfarin, and 46 898 were treated with DOAC (17 193 with rivaroxaban, 9882 with dabigatran, 11 992 with apixaban, and 7831 with edoxaban). During mean 1.3±1.1 years of follow-up, crude incidence of dementia was 4.87 per 100 person-years (1.20 per 100 person-years for vascular dementia and 3.30 per 100 person-years for Alzheimer dementia). Compared with warfarin, DOAC showed a comparable risks of dementia, vascular dementia, and Alzheimer dementia. In subgroup analyses, DOAC was associated with a lower risk of dementia than warfarin, particularly in patients aged 65 to 74 years (hazard ratio, 0.815 [95% CI, 0.709–0.936]) and in patients with prior stroke (hazard ratio, 0.891 [95% CI, 0.820–0.968]). When comparing individual DOACs with warfarin, edoxaban was associated with a lower risk of dementia (hazard ratio, 0.830 [95% CI, 0.740–0.931]).

Conclusions

In this large Asian population with atrial fibrillation, DOAC showed a comparable risk of dementia with warfarin overall. DOACs appeared more beneficial than warfarin, in those aged 65 to 74 years or with a history of stroke. For specific DOACs, only edoxaban was associated with a lower risk of dementia than warfarin.

European Stroke Organisation and European Academy of Neurology joint guidelines on post-stroke cognitive impairment

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The optimal management of post-stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI) remains controversial. These joint European Stroke Organisation (ESO) and European Academy of Neurology (EAN) guidelines provide evidence-based recommendations to assist clinicians in decision making regarding prevention, diagnosis, treatment and prognosis.

METHODS

Guidelines were developed according to the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology. The working group identified relevant clinical questions, performed systematic reviews, assessed the quality of the available evidence, and made specific recommendations. Expert consensus statements were provided where insufficient evidence was available to provide recommendations.

RESULTS

There was limited randomized controlled trial (RCT) evidence regarding single or multicomponent interventions to prevent post-stroke cognitive decline. Lifestyle interventions and treating vascular risk factors have many health benefits, but a cognitive effect is not proven. We found no evidence regarding routine cognitive screening following stroke, but recognize the importance of targeted cognitive assessment. We describe the accuracy of various cognitive screening tests, but found no clearly superior approach to testing. There was insufficient evidence to make a recommendation for use of cholinesterase inhibitors, memantine nootropics or cognitive rehabilitation. There was limited evidence on the use of prediction tools for post-stroke cognition. The association between PSCI and acute structural brain imaging features was unclear, although the presence of substantial white matter hyperintensities of presumed vascular origin on brain magnetic resonance imaging may help predict cognitive outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

These guidelines highlight fundamental areas where robust evidence is lacking. Further definitive RCTs are needed, and we suggest priority areas for future research.

European Stroke Organisation and European Academy of Neurology joint guidelines on post-stroke cognitive impairment

The optimal management of post-stroke cognitive impairment remains controversial. These joint European Stroke Organisation (ESO) and European Academy of Neurology (EAN) guidelines provide evidence-based recommendations to assist clinicians in decision making around prevention, diagnosis, treatment and prognosis. These guidelines were developed according to ESO standard operating procedure and the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology. The working group identified relevant clinical questions, performed systematic reviews and, where possible, meta-analyses of the literature, assessed the quality of the available evidence and made specific recommendations. Expert consensus statements were provided where insufficient evidence was available to provide recommendations based on the GRADE approach. There was limited randomised controlled trial evidence regarding single or multicomponent interventions to prevent post-stroke cognitive decline. Interventions to improve lifestyle and treat vascular risk factors may have many health benefits but a beneficial effect on cognition is not proven. We found no evidence around routine cognitive screening following stroke but recognise the importance of targeted cognitive assessment. We described the accuracy of various cognitive screening tests but found no clearly superior approach to testing. There was insufficient evidence to make a recommendation for use of cholinesterase inhibitors, memantine nootropics or cognitive rehabilitation. There was limited evidence on the use of prediction tools for post-stroke cognitive syndromes (cognitive impairment, dementia and delirium). The association between post-stroke cognitive impairment and most acute structural brain imaging features was unclear, although the presence of substantial white matter hyperintensities of presumed vascular origin on acute MRI brain may help predict cognitive outcomes. These guidelines have highlighted fundamental areas where robust evidence is lacking. Further, definitive randomised controlled trials are needed, and we suggest priority areas for future research.

Association of anticoagulant therapy with risk of dementia among patients with atrial fibrillation

AIMS

To investigate the risk of dementia in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients treated with different oral anticoagulants (OACs).

METHODS AND RESULTS

This observational, population-based cohort study enrolled 53 236 dementia-free individuals with non-valvular AF who were aged ≥50 years and newly prescribed OACs from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2016 from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database. Propensity score matching was used to compare the rates of dementia between users of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) (dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban) and warfarin and to compare each individual NOAC with warfarin. Propensity score weighting analyses were also performed. In the study population (41.3% women; mean age: 70.7 years), 2194 had a diagnosis of incident dementia during a mean follow-up of 20.2 months. Relative to propensity-matched warfarin users, NOAC users tended to be at lower risk of dementia [hazard ratio (HR) 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69-0.90]. When comparing individual NOACs with warfarin, all the three NOACs were associated with lower dementia risk. In pairwise comparisons among NOACs, rivaroxaban was associated with decreased dementia risk, compared with dabigatran (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.74-0.92). Supplemental propensity-weighted analyses showed consistent protective associations of NOACs with dementia relative to warfarin. The associations were consistent irrespectively of age, sex, stroke, and vascular disease and more prominent in standard dose users of NOAC.

CONCLUSION

In this propensity-matched and -weighted analysis using a real-world population-based cohort, use of NOACs was associated with lower dementia risk than use of warfarin among non-valvular AF patients initiating OAC treatment.

Acute heart failure in elderly patients: a review of invasive and non-invasive management

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a major cause of unplanned hospitalisations in the elderly and is associated with high mortality. Its prevalence has grown in the last years due to population aging and longer life expectancy of chronic heart failure patients. Although international societies have provided guidelines for the management of AHF in the general population, scientific evidence for geriatric patients is often lacking, as these are underrepresented in clinical trials. Elderly have a different risk profile with more comorbidities, disability, and frailty, leading to increased morbidity, longer recovery time, higher readmission rates, and higher mortality. Furthermore, therapeutic options are often limited, due to unfeasibility of invasive strategies, mechanical circulatory support and cardiac transplantation. Thus, the in-hospital management of AHF should be tailored to each patient's clinical situation, cardiopulmonary condition and geriatric assessment. Palliative care should be considered in some cases, in order to avoid unnecessary diagnostics and/or treatments. After discharge, a strict follow-up through outpatient clinic or telemedicine is can improve quality of life and reduce rehospitalisation rates. The aim of this review is to offer an insight on current literature and provide a clinically oriented, patient-tailored approach regarding assessment, treatment and follow-up of elderly patients admitted for AHF.

Effectiveness and Safety of Rivaroxaban by General Practitioners - A Multicenter, Prospective Study in Japanese Patients With Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (GENERAL)

BACKGROUND

Direct oral anticoagulants have become a standard therapy for non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). However, little is known about their effectiveness/safety when prescribed by general practitioners to treat high-risk populations such as the elderly, those who are frail or have cognitive dysfunction.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this multicenter, prospective study, a total of 5,717 NVAF patients (mean age 73.9 years) receiving rivaroxaban were registered by general practitioners, with a maximum 3-year follow up (mean 2.0±0.5 years). The primary endpoint was a composite of stroke and systemic embolism (SE). The annual incidence (per 100 person-years) of stroke/SE was 1.23% and for major bleeding, it was 0.63%. Multivariate analyses identified age ≥75 years (hazard ratio [HR]; 2.67, P<0.001) and history of ischemic stroke (HR; 1.89, P=0.005) as significant risk factors of stroke/SE, with history of major bleeding (HR; 14.9, P<0.001) and warfarin use (HR; 2.15, P=0.002) as risk factors for major bleeding events. Neither cognitive dysfunction, defined by the receipt of anti-dementia medications, nor frailty, evaluated by the classification of the Japanese Long-term Care Insurance system, correlated with stroke/SE or major bleeding events.

CONCLUSIONS

The low incidence of adverse events, including stroke/SE and bleeding, in patients prescribed rivaroxaban by general practitioners supports its use as a safe and efficacious treatment in the standard clinical care of high-risk patient populations.

Predicting the Risk of Ischemic Stroke in Patients Treated with Novel Oral Anticoagulants: A Machine Learning Approach

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this cohort study was to estimate the predictors of ischemic stroke in patients treated with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) in a large database containing data from general practitioners in Germany using machine learning methods.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 39,652 patients with a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF) and an initial prescription of NOAC in 1,278 general practices in Germany between January 2011 and December 2018. Of 39,652 patients, 2,310 (5.8%) receive the first stroke or TIA diagnosis during the follow-up time (average follow-up time 2.5 [SD: 1.8] years). Sub-Population Optimization and Modeling Solutions (SOMS) tool was used to identify subgroups at a higher risk of stroke compared to the overall population receiving NOAC based on 37 different variables.

RESULTS

Using SOMS, a total of 9 variables were considered important for the stroke prediction. Age had 59.1% of prediction importance, following by ischemic heart diseases (10.6%), urinary tract infections (4.6%), dementia (3.5%), and male sex (3.5%). Further variables with less importance were dizziness (2.2%), dorsalgia (1.5%), shoulder lesions (1.1%), and diabetes mellitus (1.1%).

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS

The stroke risk in AF patients treated with NOAC could be predicted based on comorbidities like ischemic heart diseases, urinary tract infections, and dementia additionally to age and male sex. Knowing and addressing these factors may help reduce the risk of stroke in this patient population.