Modelling the affordability and distributional implications of future health care financing options in South Africa

South Africa is considering introducing a universal health care system. A key concern for policy-makers and the general public is whether or not this reform is affordable. Modelling the resource and revenue generation requirements of alternative reform options is critical to inform decision-making. This paper considers three reform scenarios: universal coverage funded by increased allocations to health from general tax and additional dedicated taxes; an alternative reform option of extending private health insurance coverage to all formal sector workers and their dependents with the remainder using tax-funded services; and maintaining the status quo. Each scenario was modelled over a 15-year period using a spreadsheet model. Statistical analyses were also undertaken to evaluate the impact of options on the distribution of health care financing burden and benefits from using health services across socio-economic groups. Universal coverage would result in total health care spending levels equivalent to 8.6% of gross domestic product (GDP), which is comparable to current spending levels. It is lower than the status quo option (9.5% of GDP) and far lower than the option of expanding private insurance cover (over 13% of GDP). However, public funding of health services would have to increase substantially. Despite this, universal coverage would result in the most progressive financing system if the additional public funding requirements are generated through a surcharge on taxable income (but not if VAT is increased). The extended private insurance scheme option would be the least progressive and would impose a very high payment burden; total health care payments on average would be 10.7% of household consumption expenditure compared with the universal coverage (6.7%) and status quo (7.5%) options. The least pro-rich distribution of service benefits would be achieved under universal coverage. Universal coverage is affordable and would promote health system equity, but needs careful design to ensure its long-term sustainability.

Modelling the implications of moving towards universal coverage in Tanzania

A model was developed to assess the impact of possible moves towards universal coverage in Tanzania over a 15-year time frame. Three scenarios were considered: maintaining the current situation ('the status quo'); expanded health insurance coverage (the estimated maximum achievable coverage in the absence of premium subsidies, coverage restricted to those who can pay); universal coverage to all (government revenues used to pay the premiums for the poor). The model estimated the costs of delivering public health services and all health services to the population as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and forecast revenue from user fees and insurance premiums. Under the status quo, financial protection is provided to 10% of the population through health insurance schemes, with the remaining population benefiting from subsidized user charges in public facilities. Seventy-six per cent of the population would benefit from financial protection through health insurance under the expanded coverage scenario, and 100% of the population would receive such protection through a mix of insurance cover and government funding under the universal coverage scenario. The expanded and universal coverage scenarios have a significant effect on utilization levels, especially for public outpatient care. Universal coverage would require an initial doubling in the proportion of GDP going to the public health system. Government health expenditure would increase to 18% of total government expenditure. The results are sensitive to the cost of health system strengthening, the level of real GDP growth, provider reimbursement rates and administrative costs. Promoting greater cross-subsidization between insurance schemes would provide sufficient resources to finance universal coverage. Alternately, greater tax funding for health could be generated through an increase in the rate of Value-Added Tax (VAT) or expanding the income tax base. The feasibility and sustainability of efforts to promote universal coverage will depend on the ability of the system to contain costs.