Polygenic risk scores for prediction of breast cancer risk in women of African ancestry: a cross-ancestry approach

Genome-wide association analyses of breast cancer in women of African ancestry identify new susceptibility loci and improve risk prediction

We performed genome-wide association studies of breast cancer including 18,034 cases and 22,104 controls of African ancestry. Genetic variants at 12 loci were associated with breast cancer risk (P < 5 × 10-8), including associations of a low-frequency missense variant rs61751053 in ARHGEF38 with overall breast cancer (odds ratio (OR) = 1.48) and a common variant rs76664032 at chromosome 2q14.2 with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) (OR = 1.30). Approximately 15.4% of cases with TNBC carried six risk alleles in three genome-wide association study-identified TNBC risk variants, with an OR of 4.21 (95% confidence interval = 2.66-7.03) compared with those carrying fewer than two risk alleles. A polygenic risk score (PRS) showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.60 for the prediction of breast cancer risk, which outperformed PRS derived using data from females of European ancestry. Our study markedly increases the population diversity in genetic studies for breast cancer and demonstrates the utility of PRS for risk prediction in females of African ancestry.

Polygenic risk scores, radiation treatment exposures and subsequent cancer risk in childhood cancer survivors

Survivors of childhood cancer are at increased risk for subsequent cancers attributable to the late effects of radiotherapy and other treatment exposures; thus, further understanding of the impact of genetic predisposition on risk is needed. Combining genotype data for 11,220 5-year survivors from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and the St Jude Lifetime Cohort, we found that cancer-specific polygenic risk scores (PRSs) derived from general population, genome-wide association study, cancer loci identified survivors of European ancestry at increased risk of subsequent basal cell carcinoma (odds ratio per s.d. of the PRS: OR = 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.29-1.46), female breast cancer (OR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.27-1.58), thyroid cancer (OR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.31-1.67), squamous cell carcinoma (OR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.00-1.44) and melanoma (OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.31-1.96); however, the association for colorectal cancer was not significant (OR = 1.19, 95% CI = 0.94-1.52). An investigation of joint associations between PRSs and radiotherapy found more than additive increased risks of basal cell carcinoma, and breast and thyroid cancers. For survivors with radiotherapy exposure, the cumulative incidence of subsequent cancer by age 50 years was increased for those with high versus low PRS. These findings suggest a degree of shared genetic etiology for these malignancy types in the general population and survivors, which remains evident in the context of strong radiotherapy-related risk.

Integrating a Polygenic Risk Score into a clinical setting would impact risk predictions in familial breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Low-impact genetic variants identified in population-based genetic studies are not routinely measured as part of clinical genetic testing in familial breast cancer (BC). We studied the consequences of integrating an established Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) (BCAC 313, PRS313) into clinical sequencing of women with familial BC in Sweden.

METHODS

We developed an add-on sequencing panel to capture 313 risk variants in addition to the clinical screening of hereditary BC genes. Index patients with no pathogenic variant from 87 families, and 1000 population controls, were included in comparative PRS calculations. Including detailed family history, sequencing results and tumour pathology information, we used BOADICEA (Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm) V.6 to estimate contralateral and lifetime risks without and with PRS313.

RESULTS

Women with BC but no pathogenic variants in hereditary BC genes have a higher PRS313 compared with population controls (mean+0.78 SD, p<3e-9). Implementing PRS313 in the clinical risk estimation before their BC diagnosis would have changed the recommended follow-up in 24%-45% of women.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show the potential impact of incorporating PRS313 directly in the clinical genomic investigation of women with familial BC.

Addition of polygenic risk score to a risk calculator for prediction of breast cancer in US Black women

BACKGROUND

Previous work in European ancestry populations has shown that adding a polygenic risk score (PRS) to breast cancer risk prediction models based on epidemiologic factors results in better discriminatory performance as measured by the AUC (area under the curve). Following publication of the first PRS to perform well in women of African ancestry (AA-PRS), we conducted an external validation of the AA-PRS and then evaluated the addition of the AA-PRS to a risk calculator for incident breast cancer in Black women based on epidemiologic factors (BWHS model).

METHODS

Data from the Black Women's Health Study, an ongoing prospective cohort study of 59,000 US Black women followed by biennial questionnaire since 1995, were used to calculate AUCs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for discriminatory accuracy of the BWHS model, the AA-PRS alone, and a new model that combined them. Analyses were based on data from 922 women with invasive breast cancer and 1844 age-matched controls.

RESULTS

AUCs were 0.577 (95% CI 0.556-0.598) for the BWHS model and 0.584 (95% CI 0.563-0.605) for the AA-PRS. For a model that combined estimates from the questionnaire-based BWHS model with the PRS, the AUC increased to 0.623 (95% CI 0.603-0.644).

CONCLUSIONS

This combined model represents a step forward for personalized breast cancer preventive care for US Black women, as its performance metrics are similar to those from models in other populations. Use of this new model may mitigate exacerbation of breast cancer disparities if and when it becomes feasible to include a PRS in routine health care decision-making.

A Systematic Review and Critical Assessment of Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Tools Incorporating a Polygenic Risk Score for the General Population

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the form of a polygenic risk score (PRS) have emerged as a promising factor that could improve the predictive performance of breast cancer (BC) risk prediction tools. This study aims to appraise and critically assess the current evidence on these tools. Studies were identified using Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library up to November 2022 and were included if they described the development and/ or validation of a BC risk prediction model using a PRS for women of the general population and if they reported a measure of predictive performance. We identified 37 articles, of which 29 combined genetic and non-genetic risk factors using seven different risk prediction tools. Most models (55.0%) were developed on populations from European ancestry and performed better than those developed on populations from other ancestry groups. Regardless of the number of SNPs in each PRS, models combining a PRS with genetic and non-genetic risk factors generally had better discriminatory accuracy (AUC from 0.52 to 0.77) than those using a PRS alone (AUC from 0.48 to 0.68). The overall risk of bias was considered low in most studies. BC risk prediction tools combining a PRS with genetic and non-genetic risk factors provided better discriminative accuracy than either used alone. Further studies are needed to cross-compare their clinical utility and readiness for implementation in public health practices.

Individualizing Breast Cancer Risk Assessment in Clinical Practice

Multiple tools exist to assess a patient's breast cancer risk. The choice of risk model depends on the patient's risk factors and how the calculation will impact care. High-risk patients-those with a lifetime breast cancer risk of ≥20%-are, for instance, eligible for supplemental screening with breast magnetic resonance imaging. Those with an elevated short-term breast cancer risk (frequently defined as a 5-year risk ≥1.66%) should be offered endocrine prophylaxis. High-risk patients should also receive guidance on modification of lifestyle factors that affect breast cancer risk.

Combining Molecular and Radiomic Features for Risk Assessment in Breast Cancer

Breast cancer risk is highly variable within the population and current research is leading the shift toward personalized medicine. By accurately assessing an individual woman's risk, we can reduce the risk of over/undertreatment by preventing unnecessary procedures or by elevating screening procedures. Breast density measured from conventional mammography has been established as one of the most dominant risk factors for breast cancer; however, it is currently limited by its ability to characterize more complex breast parenchymal patterns that have been shown to provide additional information to strengthen cancer risk models. Molecular factors ranging from high penetrance, or high likelihood that a mutation will show signs and symptoms of the disease, to combinations of gene mutations with low penetrance have shown promise for augmenting risk assessment. Although imaging biomarkers and molecular biomarkers have both individually demonstrated improved performance in risk assessment, few studies have evaluated them together. This review aims to highlight the current state of the art in breast cancer risk assessment using imaging and genetic biomarkers.

A scoping review of smoking cessation pharmacogenetic studies to advance future research across racial, ethnic, and ancestral populations

Abstinence rates among smokers attempting to quit remain low despite the wide availability and accessibility of pharmacological smoking cessation treatments. In addition, the prevalence of cessation attempts and abstinence differs by individual-level social factors such as race and ethnicity. Clinical treatment of nicotine dependence also continues to be challenged by individual-level variability in effectiveness to promote abstinence. The use of tailored smoking cessation strategies that incorporate information on individual-level social and genetic factors hold promise, although additional pharmacogenomic knowledge is still needed. In particular, genetic variants associated with pharmacological responses to smoking cessation treatment have generally been conducted in populations with participants that self-identify as White race or who are determined to be of European genetic ancestry. These results may not adequately capture the variability across all smokers as a result of understudied differences in allele frequencies across genetic ancestry populations. This suggests that much of the current pharmacogenetic study results for smoking cessation may not apply to all populations. Therefore, clinical application of pharmacogenetic results may exacerbate health inequities by racial and ethnic groups. This scoping review examines the extent to which racial, ethnic, and ancestral groups that experience differences in smoking rates and smoking cessation are represented in the existing body of published pharmacogenetic studies of smoking cessation. We will summarize results by race, ethnicity, and ancestry across pharmacological treatments and study designs. We will also explore current opportunities and challenges in conducting pharmacogenomic research on smoking cessation that encourages greater participant diversity, including practical barriers to clinical utilization of pharmacological smoking cessation treatment and clinical implementation of pharmacogenetic knowledge.

Association and performance of polygenic risk scores for breast cancer among French women presenting or not a familial predisposition to the disease

BACKGROUND

Three partially overlapping breast cancer polygenic risk scores (PRS) comprising 77, 179 and 313 SNPs have been proposed for European-ancestry women by the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) for improving risk prediction in the general population. However, the effect of these SNPs may vary from one country to another and within a country because of other factors.

OBJECTIVE

To assess their associated risk and predictive performance in French women from (1) the CECILE population-based case-control study, (2) BRCA1 or BRCA2 (BRCA1/2) pathogenic variant (PV) carriers from the GEMO study, and (3) familial breast cancer cases with no BRCA1/2 PV and unrelated controls from the GENESIS study.

RESULTS

All three PRS were associated with breast cancer in all studies, with odds ratios per standard deviation varying from 1.7 to 2.0 in CECILE and GENESIS, and hazard ratios varying from 1.1 to 1.4 in GEMO. The predictive performance of PRS₃₁₃ in CECILE was similar to that reported in BCAC but lower than that in GENESIS (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.67 and 0.75, respectively). PRS were less performant in BRCA2 and BRCA1 PV carriers (AUC = 0.58 and 0.54 respectively).

CONCLUSION

Our results are in line with previous validation studies in the general population and in BRCA1/2 PV carriers. Additionally, we showed that PRS may be of clinical utility for women with a strong family history of breast cancer and no BRCA1/2 PV, and for those carrying a predicted PV in a moderate-risk gene like ATM, CHEK2 or PALB2.